1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to trade sideways, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics presenting a slightly stronger pattern. [4] - The current oversupply situation in the crude oil market persists, but geopolitical factors and the strength of crack spreads provide some support. Oil prices are expected to trade sideways in the short term. [8] - The price of asphalt futures is expected to trade weakly due to factors such as the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks. [9] - The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to trade weakly, influenced by factors like the potential increase in production by OPEC+ and changes in supply and demand. [9][11] - Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways with a downward bias due to high inventory levels and a supply - demand imbalance. [26] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to trade within a low - level range due to the impact of new production capacity and increasing inventory. [18][21] - The prices of other chemical products such as PX, PTA, and short - fiber are also expected to trade sideways, with their trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment. [12][13][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The price of crude oil continues to trade sideways due to the interaction between the signs of the resumption of operations at a key Russian port and extensive geopolitical risks. The price of methanol and ethylene glycol has seen an unexpected increase in inventory. [2][3] 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Market News**: There are uncertainties regarding risks related to Russia and Venezuela. The resumption of oil shipments from Kazakhstan at the Novorossiysk port has been reported, and Trump may talk to Maduro. [8] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors, the relief of refined oil inventory pressure, and the strength of crack spreads provide short - term support for crude oil demand. However, the current oversupply situation and the continuous increase in inventory are difficult to change, leading to sideways price movement. [8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply pressure persists, the crack spread points to an optimistic outlook for refinery operations, and geopolitical concerns remain, resulting in short - term sideways trading. [8] Asphalt - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main asphalt futures closed at 3037 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3290 yuan/ton, 3450 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively. [8] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks, as well as the cooling of the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt futures price is trading below the 3200 - yuan pressure level. The supply - demand imbalance and high inventory pressure remain. [9] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases. [9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2622 yuan/ton. [9] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December and the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region may decline due to the reduction in Russian exports. However, the demand for fuel oil remains weak. [9] - **Outlook**: Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine situation. [9] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3240 yuan/ton. [11] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the movement of crude oil prices. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution, but its current valuation is low. [11] - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the movement of crude oil prices, with limited substitution demand space. [11] Methanol - **Market News**: On November 17, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2005 yuan/ton, and the port inventory continued to increase. [26] - **Main Logic**: The domestic methanol supply is abundant, and the import of goods has an impact on the market. The high inventory level suppresses the price, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. [26] - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to trade within a narrow low - level range, waiting for overseas market information. [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On November 17, the domestic ethylene glycol market was adjusted sideways, and the inventory continued to increase. [18] - **Main Logic**: New production capacity has an impact on the market, and although some coal - based plants are under maintenance, the new plants are gradually coming into operation, resulting in high inventory pressure. [18][21] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to trade within a low - level range. [21] Other Chemical Products - **PX**: The supply of xylene is sufficient, and the impact of blending for gasoline on PX is limited in the short term. The load of PX remains stable. [12] - **PTA**: The emotional impact has ended, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of plant changes. [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The fundamentals are weak, and the price of polyester staple fiber is expected to continue to adjust weakly. [22] - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it is passively following the cost. [24] - **Propylene**: The downstream trading volume has increased, and the price of PL is expected to trade sideways. [28] - **PP**: The short - term driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. [28] - **Plastic**: The upcoming cold snap next week may boost the raw material support, and the price of plastic is expected to trade sideways. [27] - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has an impact, and short - sellers have reduced their positions. [17] - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the price is expected to trade sideways. [31] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot pressure remains high, and the futures price is expected to be cautious and weak. [32] 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Inter - Period Spread - The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, and MEG are presented, showing different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 2. [34] 3.3.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties are provided. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 12 with a change of 15, and the number of warehouse receipts is 30110. [35] 3.3.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA and 1 - month TA - EG are given, along with their changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 380 with a change of 71. [37] 3.4 Index Performance - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the commodity are presented. For example, the comprehensive index is 2254.19 with a change of - 0.24%, and the energy index on November 17, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.11%. [278][279]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply-side changes are expected to be the dominant factor in pricing, while the demand side currently lacks a significant growth driver. OPEC+ aims to increase production to maintain market share, but actual growth may fall short of targets, weakening the impact of supply increases on the market. Non-OPEC+ supply in South America is expected to gradually increase, while low oil prices continue to suppress US shale oil production. The market anticipates supply growth, but the lack of significant inventory accumulation indicates that the risk of oversupply remains to be verified. Geopolitical conflicts introduce many uncertainties, with the stability of Russian supply likely to be the focus of future geopolitical trading. Brent crude oil prices are expected to oscillate within the range of $60 - $75 per barrel in the short term. If geopolitical conflicts lead to a substantial supply disruption, oil prices could face significant upward pressure [5][80] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 25Q3 Oil Price Trend Review - Narrow Oscillation, Declining Volatility - After a pulse-like fluctuation caused by geopolitical conflicts in mid-to-late June, oil prices in Q3 remained in a narrow range, with the benchmark oil spread falling from its peak. Oil price volatility continued to decline, but the central price was higher than in Q2, with an expected average Brent price of around $68 per barrel, a slight increase from $66 per barrel in Q2. Geopolitical conflicts have not significantly affected supply, but there is a high risk of escalated sanctions against Russia by the US and Europe, which may become a key trading factor in the next stage. In Q3, the supply-demand fundamentals were balanced, with a moderate decline in inventory. Despite OPEC+ accelerating production target increases, the oversupply issue was not prominent during the peak demand season, resulting in a lack of clear directional drivers for oil prices [15] 3.2 OPEC+ Firmly Maintains Market Share, Uncertainty Remains on Whether Actual Production Increases Will Meet Targets - Since April, OPEC+ has accelerated the exit from voluntary production cuts, completing the 2.2 million barrels per day cut one year ahead of schedule by the end of September. On October 1st, OPEC+ began to exit the second layer of 1.66 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts, but the full or partial exit will depend on market conditions. Although the planned production increase in October is much smaller than in previous months, the moderate recovery of oil prices in Q3 and the existence of overproduction are the main reasons for continued production increases. - Compared to the increase in nominal production targets, actual production potential has a greater impact on the market. From Q2 onwards, although OPEC+ has continuously raised production targets, oil prices rebounded moderately in July - August, as actual production increases were less than expected, preventing a supply shock. Therefore, whether actual production can meet the planned increase in Q4 will be the focus of market attention. - According to OPEC monthly reports, the production of 8 voluntary production cut countries increased to 32.18 million barrels per day in August, lower than the target increase of 1.92 million barrels per day. Iraq and Russia's production increases were not significant, both remaining below the target by about 100,000 barrels per day on average, while Kazakhstan has been overproducing by about 320,000 barrels per day. Other countries have generally achieved production increases, with Saudi Arabia temporarily overproducing in June to address supply disruptions but compensating in July. - There are differences in the market's assessment of some member countries' production. According to the IEA, most member countries are overproducing. OPEC+'s updated compensation production cut plan shows that most countries still need to make up for overproduction, with a total of 4.78 million barrels per day to be compensated by the end of next June, indicating that some members are still overproducing. - Saudi Arabia and the UAE have significant theoretical idle production capacities of nearly 2.5 million and 1 million barrels per day respectively, with high growth potential. Other members are limited by idle capacity, and their actual production increase speed is likely to be lower than the nominal target. - In terms of exports, OPEC+ production cut countries' exports have slightly recovered from their low levels in the second half of last year, but the upward trend is not obvious. The average export volume of 8 voluntary production cut countries from April - August was 20.26 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 410,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's exports increased only in June, while the UAE's exports have been rising since Q2. If geopolitical conflicts lead to a decline in Russian or Iranian exports, it may benefit the exports of other Middle Eastern oil types [18][23][28] 3.3 Geopolitical Conflicts Persist, the Stability of Russian Supply May Become the Focus 3.3.1 The Stability of Russian Supply Faces Increasing Challenges - Russia's supply has declined moderately this year, with an average seaborne crude oil export volume of about 3.36 million barrels per day in the first 8 months, a year-on-year decrease of 150,000 barrels per day. In July - August, due to drone attacks on refineries, more crude oil was exported, leading to higher-than-seasonal export volumes. Russia's seaborne crude oil exports are relatively stable, with exports to China and India at 1.14 million and 1.72 million barrels per day respectively, both showing a year-on-year decrease of about 80,000 barrels per day. Russia's pipeline exports to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline remain at about 200,000 barrels per day, while exports to the Czech Republic have basically stopped since Q2. - Russian energy facilities have been increasingly targeted by drone attacks since August, with refineries and ports being the main targets. On September 12th, the Primorsk port was attacked for the first time, increasing the risk of supply disruptions. In August, there were 15 reports of drone attacks on Russian refineries, with a record high of 1.5 million barrels per day of refining capacity taken offline. Although the increase in attack frequency does not necessarily lead to a significant increase in processing losses, it still has a negative impact on oil product exports. Russia's oil product exports in the first 8 months were 2.36 million barrels per day, a year-on-year decrease of 150,000 barrels per day, with diesel exports reaching a new low in August. - The EU and the US have adopted a tougher stance towards Russia. In July, the EU passed the 18th round of sanctions, including lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil to $47.6 per barrel and banning the import of oil products refined from Russian crude oil starting from January 21, 2026. The EU is also formulating the 19th round of sanctions. The US has threatened to impose high "secondary tariffs" on countries importing Russian oil, and has called on G7 countries to adopt stricter sanctions. Although the details and implementation of these policies are uncertain, the market has not fully priced in their potential impact on supply. - China, India, and Turkey are the main buyers of Russian crude oil, accounting for 46%, 36%, and 6% of Russia's exports respectively. Currently, there is no sign of major buyers significantly reducing their imports. However, due to the increasing risk of sanctions, there is a high risk of a decline in imports from Turkey and India in the future. If this happens, the surplus Urals oil will need to find new buyers. China theoretically has the capacity to adjust trade flows, but the Urals oil is not economically viable for Chinese refineries, and if sanctions intensify, it may also affect the procurement willingness of Chinese state-owned refineries [31][33][38] 3.3.2 Declining Transportation Efficiency Leads to a Marginal Decrease in Iranian Crude Oil Exports - Iranian crude oil production has shown a marginal decline since June, dropping to about 3.2 million barrels per day in August. Exports have also decreased slightly since June, with preliminary data showing 1.4 million barrels per day in August, compared to an average of 1.65 million barrels per day in other months. The main factor affecting Iranian exports is the US's escalating sanctions, which have led to a reduction in the number of unsanctioned vessels, slower delivery, and an increase in floating storage to nearly 27 million barrels at the end of August. The discount on Iranian crude oil has widened from -$1 per barrel at the beginning of the year to about -$6 per barrel in mid-September. Weak demand and approaching year-end import quota shortages may limit Iranian oil procurement by independent refineries in Shandong. However, due to the economic advantages of sensitive oil, Iranian supply is unlikely to decline significantly without a supply disruption at the source [45] 3.4 Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth is Highly Certain 3.4.1 South American Production Growth Outlook is Stable - South American production is gradually increasing, and the relatively stable long-term oil price outlook supports the commissioning of deep-water projects. The period before the second half of next year is a concentrated commissioning period, with a focus on Brazil and Guyana. From the second half of 2026, the growth momentum of non-OPEC+ production is expected to slow down, reducing the negative impact on supply-demand balance. - Brazil's estimated crude oil production in the first seven months was 3.65 million barrels per day, an increase of about 300,000 barrels per day compared to last year. After the commissioning of new offshore production platforms, capacity utilization has gradually increased. Production is expected to stabilize at 3.9 - 4 million barrels per day after this round of commissioning, with growth rates of about 350,000 and 170,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 respectively. - Guyana's production in the first 7 months was stable at 640,000 barrels per day. The Yellowtail project was commissioned ahead of schedule in early August, and exports began in late August. With a capacity of 250,000 barrels per day, production is expected to reach 890,000 barrels per day by the end of this year and remain at this level until the end of next year. The Uaru project, with a planned capacity of 250,000 barrels per day, is expected to be commissioned at the end of next year, bringing production close to 1 million barrels per day. The production growth rates in 2025 and 2026 are expected to be 130,000 barrels per day each [49][50] 3.4.2 The Suppressed Growth Potential of US Shale Oil is Difficult to Reverse Significantly - According to EIA data, the average US crude oil production in the first half of the year was 13.39 million barrels per day, an increase of 180,000 barrels per day compared to last year, with a further slowdown in the growth rate. The number of US oil rigs has been declining significantly since late April, reaching 416 by the second week of September, the lowest level since October 2021, a decrease of about 15% from the peak in March. The number of fracturing equipment has also decreased, reaching 169 by the second week of September, returning to the level in April 2021, a decrease of about 20% from the peak. Low oil prices have significantly suppressed the capital expenditure willingness of US upstream producers. - Productivity data from shale oil regions show a slight decline in the DUC number in the Permian region, which has supplemented the well completion number to some extent. The improvement in well production efficiency is mainly due to the increasing efficiency of rig use, with the number of new wells per rig in the Permian region rising to 1.7. However, the new well production/well completion number ratio has not shown a significant upward trend, indicating that producers are currently focusing on optimizing capital use efficiency while controlling capital expenditure. Given the expected breakeven price of about $60 per barrel and the rapid decline in rig numbers after the oil price drop in Q2, shale oil producers remain highly sensitive to medium-term oil prices. Therefore, without a significant increase in the oil price center, producers are unlikely to significantly increase capital expenditure. The EIA's September short-term energy outlook predicts a 210,000 barrels per day increase in US crude oil production in 2025 and a 140,000 barrels per day decrease in 2026 [54][58] 3.5 Global Inventory Patterns are Divergent, and Demand Growth is Expected to Remain at a Low Rate 3.5.1 China's Actual Consumption is Affected by New Energy Substitution, while Stockpiling Demand is Stable - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's above-scale industrial crude oil processing volume in the first eight months was 488 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The monthly processing volume has significantly recovered since June, approaching the 2023 high, but the refinery operating rate remains divergent. Independent refineries in Shandong have an operating rate of less than 50% for most of the time, indicating that low refining margins and peak demand for major oil products continue to have a negative impact on their operations. State-owned refineries have maintained an operating rate of over 80% since the end of Q2 maintenance, supporting the processing volume. Customs data shows that China's crude oil imports in the first eight months were 376 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.5%, maintaining a low growth rate. The production of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in the first eight months, and the yield of these products has dropped to about 55% this year. - China's gasoline and diesel consumption shows no significant improvement, as the substitution effect of new energy vehicles and LNG heavy trucks continues to suppress demand growth. The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has slowed down, reaching about 54.5% in August, slightly higher than last year's peak. The penetration rate of pure electric heavy trucks and LNG heavy trucks has approached 20%. - According to Kpler data, China's onshore crude oil inventory has been increasing, with both commercial and strategic reserves rising. As of the end of August, the inventory increased by 47 million barrels compared to the end of last year, equivalent to nearly 200,000 barrels per day. Industry sources indicate that an oil price below $65 per barrel will stimulate continuous stockpiling demand, which may further increase if oil prices decline [61][63] 3.5.2 OECD Inventories are Low, and the Risk of Oversupply has not Materialized - In Q3, the gasoline crack spread in the European and American markets was similar to last year's level in summer and significantly higher than last year's level since late August. The diesel crack spread has been rising since June, supported by moderate demand improvement and low inventory. The stable crack spread of major oil products has supported the growth of processing volumes in major refining regions. Although about 600,000 barrels per day of refining capacity is expected to be permanently shut down in the European and American markets, the US refinery processing volume increased by 230,000 barrels per day year-on-year, while the EU processing volume decreased by about 140,000 barrels per day. Processing volumes in regions with new refining capacity have generally increased, with Nigeria's crude oil processing volume reaching about 440,000 barrels per day in the first seven months, and preliminary shipping data indicating a significant increase in net oil product exports in Q3. - Global onshore crude oil inventory has been rising since Q2, but the increase is mainly concentrated in the Chinese market. OECD market inventories remain low, with changes in line with seasonal patterns. European and American gasoline and diesel inventories are also generally low, with gasoline inventories showing a seasonal decline similar to last year, while diesel inventories are significantly lower than last year. Diesel consumption has increased significantly year-on-year, with US diesel consumption increasing by 150,000 barrels per day in the first half of the year according to EIA data. In the European market, improved manufacturing sentiment supports marginal demand improvement, but imports are constrained. European gasoline consumption increased by nearly 100,000 barrels per day in the first seven months, while US gasoline consumption was basically flat in the first half of the year, with high-frequency data indicating a slightly lower consumption during the traditional peak season compared to last year. The low OECD inventories indicate that the expected inventory build-up under continuous production increases has not occurred. - The relatively stable crack spread and low inventory in the European and American markets suggest that the supply-demand balance of major oil products has not deteriorated significantly. However, the market remains cautious about the demand growth outlook. The three major institutions expect low global demand growth rates this year, with the EIA and IEA forecasting growth rates of about 700,000 and 900,000 barrels per day respectively. The EIA and OPEC expect an improvement in growth next year, while the IEA maintains a low growth forecast. According to seasonal patterns, oil product inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4. If the inventory build-up rate in Q4 is not significantly faster than in previous years, the demand side is unlikely to drive a significant downward break in oil prices [66][68][77] 3.6 Investment Recommendations - Supply-side changes are expected to continue to dominate pricing, while the demand side lacks a significant growth driver due to new energy substitution and trade frictions. OPEC+ aims to increase production to maintain market share, but actual growth may be lower than targets, weakening the impact of supply increases on the market. Non-OPEC+ supply in South America is expected to gradually increase, while low oil prices continue to suppress US shale oil production. The market anticipates supply growth, but the lack of significant inventory accumulation indicates that the risk of oversupply remains to be verified. Geopolitical conflicts introduce many uncertainties, with the stability of Russian supply likely to be the focus of future geopolitical trading. Brent crude oil prices are expected to oscillate within the range of $60 -