Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last Friday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market declined slightly, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. With the landing of the Politburo meeting and the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the market sentiment became more rational, and the futures market trend started to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to continuously monitor the recovery progress of terminal demand and the support of cost factors for finished steel prices [3]. - For iron ore, the current supply is in the traditional off - season of overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The steel mill profitability rate continues to rise, and although the short - term increase in hot metal may be limited, there is no sign of a rapid decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the change in terminal demand and the possible risks on the raw material side [6]. - Regarding manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the "anti - involution" has not changed the over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon. In the future, attention should be paid to the possible marginal weakening of demand. For ferrosilicon, it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand still exist. Although the demand in August can provide some support, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in major production areas. For polysilicon, it is expected to increase production in August, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [14][16]. - For glass, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector, the futures prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is required for a significant increase. For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3213 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 94,978 tons, a net increase of 1487 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.61211 million lots, a net decrease of 16,057 lots. The summary price of rebar in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Shanghai, it was 3340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3428 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 70,915 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract was 1.392227 million lots, a net decrease of 36,360 lots. The summary price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing this week, and social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks, with the increase further expanding this week. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of both supply and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation was significant. Currently, the inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are on the rise, steel mill profits are good, and production remains high, but the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 790.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00), and the position changed by - 27,288 lots to 308,100 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 916,400 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 28.02 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 3.43% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrival volume increased. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal production was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased slightly. Terminal data showed that the apparent demand for five major steel products weakened, and inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: On August 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated, closing down 0.30% at 6046 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 94 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.06% at 5772 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 128 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically. The over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon has not changed, and there may be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. For ferrosilicon, there has been no significant change, and it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8710 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+ 55). The weighted contract position changed by - 1995 lots to 533,795 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 390 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 190 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50,790 yuan/ton, up 1.36% (+ 680). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,312 lots to 360,328 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 44.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 3790 yuan/ton. It is expected to increase production in August, with inventory likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe was 1181 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1190 yuan, unchanged. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight boxes, a net increase of 2.348 million weight boxes (+ 3.95%) from the previous period, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days were 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and follow macro - sentiment in the long term [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1235 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 13,300 tons (0.72%) from Monday. The downstream demand was tepid, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [2] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4] Core Views - Market expectations have boosted steel prices, leading to a slight rebound, while glass and soda ash are oscillating, and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy prices are rising [1][3] - Glass supply lacks policy - driven contraction, and real - estate drags down demand. Although speculative demand has increased and inventories are decreasing, they remain at a high level. In the long run, supply - demand remains loose [1] - Soda ash production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, but may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase [1] - Silicomanganese production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased [3] - Ferrosilicon production is gradually recovering, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations [3] Summary by Category Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 0.93%. Downstream procurement is cautious [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply shows no policy - driven contraction, real - estate drags down demand. Speculative demand has increased, and factory inventories are decreasing but remain high. Market trading sentiment has cooled after important meetings. In the long run, supply - demand is loose. Attention should be paid to the delivery of the 09 contract and industry capacity reduction [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 1.78%. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash has slightly increased, and downstream buyers purchase based on low - price demand [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, and may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the supply side [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market was strong, with the main contract rising 4.27%. Factory开工 enthusiasm is high, and prices have been slightly adjusted. The price in the northern market is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is about 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly to a medium level in recent years. Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased. Attention should be paid to inventory and ore shipments [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market was boosted by the black - metal sector and oscillated upward. Market sentiment has improved, and prices are stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area is 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production is gradually recovering, apparent demand has decreased, enterprises have profits, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long run, capacity is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4]

Group 1: Market Analysis of Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures declined 7.19% at the close due to a high previous settlement price, with strong wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market. Supply remains unchanged, real - estate drags on demand, speculative demand increases, inventory continues to decline but stays high. Long - term supply - demand is still loose. [1] - Soda ash futures also declined, with near - month contracts falling more than far - month ones. The main contract dropped 3.58% at the close. Both light and heavy soda ash are sold at reduced prices, and downstream procurement is cautious. Supply is high and in summer maintenance, capacity release is relatively restricted, and it may further increase later. [1] Group 2: Strategies for Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Expected to fluctuate [2] - Soda ash: Expected to fluctuate [2] Group 3: Market Analysis of Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese futures rose 184 yuan/ton to 6212 yuan/ton, driven by a sharp increase in finished - product prices. Production increased, iron - water production slightly decreased, and inventory decreased slightly but remained high. Manganese ore shipments from Australia basically recovered, and enterprise hedging willingness increased after the price increase. [3] - Silicon iron futures closed at 6110 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Demand remains resilient, factory inventory is at a medium - high level. Short - term market sentiment improved, and long - term capacity is relatively loose. [3] Group 4: Strategies for Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese: Expected to fluctuate [4] - Silicon iron: Expected to fluctuate [4] Group 5: Graphical Information - There are multiple graphical analyses including Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices, futures contract closing prices, cost, profit, and basis charts for various products such as steel, iron ore, coke, soda ash, glass, silicon manganese, and silicon iron. [5]

Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is high, and steel prices are oscillating strongly. The glass and soda ash market transactions have improved, leading to a significant increase in the glass and soda ash futures market. The high - price sentiment in the ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon manganese markets is strong, and the market maintains on - demand procurement [1][3] Market Analysis and Strategy for Different Products Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market rose significantly yesterday. The downstream procurement sentiment has warmed up, and spot sales have improved. This week, the开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.1%, a decrease of 0.43% month - on - month. The manufacturer's inventory was 61.896 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 46,900 heavy boxes month - on - month, with significant destocking. However, the overall inventory remains high, and the destocking pressure is still large. In the long term, the glass supply - demand is still relatively loose [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market rose significantly yesterday. The downstream transactions were stable, mainly in a wait - and - see state. This week, the soda ash开工率 was 83.02%, a decrease of 1.28% month - on - month; the output was 723,800 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons month - on - month; the inventory was 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% month - on - month, with obvious destocking. Currently in the summer maintenance stage, the soda ash开工率 is expected to remain at a low level. With the production cut of photovoltaic glass, the demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further, and the annual inventory pressure is large [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon Manganese: The ferrosilicon manganese futures slightly corrected yesterday. The market sentiment was mainly wait - and - see, and the overall price was firm. The price in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was about 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon manganese output remained stable, the hot metal output rebounded, and the overall demand for ferrosilicon manganese maintained resilience. The inventory of ferrosilicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of ferrosilicon manganese. The shipment from the Australian end of manganese ore has basically recovered [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated strongly yesterday. The market sentiment in the ferrosilicon spot market was okay, and the price of ferrosilicon was running steadily and strongly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5,400 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was reported at 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The output increased month - on - month, the demand slightly decreased, and the factory inventory was at a medium - to - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment improved, and the price fluctuated following the sector. In the long term, the ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively loose [3] Strategy - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily discuss the overall market trends and specific sectors within the Chinese economy, including industrial metals, manufacturing, military, consumer goods, innovative pharmaceuticals, financial services, and public utilities. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Earnings Disclosure Timeline**: Companies are expected to disclose their earnings forecasts by July 15, with subsequent disclosures impacting market trading dynamics. The earnings reporting periods include annual, semi-annual, and quarterly reports, with the latter being less impactful on market trading compared to annual and semi-annual reports [1] 2. **Economic Recovery**: The current state of the domestic economy is characterized by a slow recovery in the financial chain, with overall economic growth being decent. The overall EPS for the A-share market may require more time to improve, suggesting a focus on structural economic trends [2][3] 3. **Industrial Metals Demand**: The demand for industrial metals is supported by the rapid development of sectors such as renewable energy and AI computing, leading to price increases and improved earnings for these metals [3][4] 4. **Manufacturing Sector Growth**: The manufacturing sector, particularly in wind power and exports of motorcycles and inverters, is experiencing high growth rates. The demand from emerging markets, especially Southeast Asia and South America, is driving this growth [4][5] 5. **Military Industry Outlook**: The military sector is expected to see continuous improvement in orders, supported by both domestic and international demand. This sector is highlighted for its potential earnings elasticity [6][7] 6. **Consumer Goods Performance**: The consumer goods sector, particularly in categories supported by government subsidies, has shown strong growth. Categories such as home appliances and communication equipment have experienced significant increases in sales [8] 7. **Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: The innovative pharmaceutical sector is benefiting from favorable policies and a surge in commercial opportunities. The second quarter has seen a significant increase in orders from Chinese pharmaceutical companies [9][10] 8. **Insurance Sector Dynamics**: The insurance sector is seeing improvements in both liability and asset sides, with premium income rising and investment returns being favorable. The demand for bank stocks as a stable investment is also noted [11] 9. **Investment Banking Recovery**: The investment banking sector is experiencing a recovery, with an increase in IPOs and fundraising activities. The number of IPOs reached 24, raising over 20 billion, significantly higher than the previous year [12] 10. **Emerging Technologies and Gaming**: The demand for computing power is expected to grow significantly, particularly in the AI sector, while the gaming industry continues to expand, with mobile game revenues increasing by 12% year-on-year [13][14][15] 11. **Public Utilities Focus**: Investors are advised to pay attention to the public utilities sector, particularly in electricity generation, with a focus on thermal power [15] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The notes emphasize the importance of structural economic trends and specific sectors that are likely to drive market performance in the near future. The focus on emerging markets and technological advancements indicates potential investment opportunities that may not be immediately apparent [2][4][6][9][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to the dissipation of geopolitical premiums in the energy and chemical sectors. The markets returned to the mid - term supply - demand logic, presenting opportunities for short positions. Whether to enter the market depends on individual risk tolerance [3][5]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the cease - fire, geopolitical premiums were squeezed out, and the market returned to the mid - term oversupply supply - demand logic [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term oscillatory structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was a sharp decline and a short - term break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: There was an opportunity to enter short positions when the price broke through in the early morning with Iran's symbolic attack. The stop - loss was set at the 572 level [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The operating rate of styrene increased rapidly to 79%, with ample supply, weak downstream demand, and a possible shift to inventory accumulation. It was still easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: There were opportunities to enter short positions when the price broke through last night or when the cease - fire was announced this morning [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: In May, the export volume of Thai mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year, and the supply increase expectation was gradually realized. Tire operating rates declined, inventories were high, and downstream demand expectations remained pessimistic [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was an increase in trading volume and a decline today, returning to the downward structure. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [11]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamental situation was one of high supply, weak demand, and large inventory pressure. Raw material butadiene would still be under pressure, and demand was extremely weak. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [15]. (5) PX - **Logic**: Supported by downstream demand, PX continued to reduce inventory, with a short - term strong fundamental situation. It was more affected by crude oil price fluctuations recently [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [19]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Previously shut - down PTA units were gradually restarting, polyester demand was weak, and the fundamental situation had weakened. It was more easily affected by crude oil price fluctuations in the short term [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The operating rate of PP units increased, supply was under pressure, and terminal demand was weak. The supply expectations of raw materials methanol and propane were affected by the Israel - Iran conflict [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian methanol units stopped operating, increasing supply - side disturbances. Attention was needed on whether this would have a significant impact on future imports [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Maintenance volume gradually decreased, PVC supply increased, and terminal demand was insufficient. The impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on PVC was relatively weak [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure may have ended. It broke through key support today, and the short - term trend may have reversed. - **Strategy**: Wait for a rebound and then enter short positions according to technical signals rather than directly entering the market [28]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply - side maintenance units would gradually resume operation, polyester operating rates declined, and the short - term fundamental situation weakened. It was easily affected by the geopolitical situation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There was pressure from large - scale unit production in the mid - term, with a large expected increase in supply. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, the hourly - level upward structure was under test. There was a significant decline today, testing short - term support, but it had not broken through technically. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [34].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the energy and chemical sector, analyzing the market conditions of various products including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others [1][2][3] - Geopolitical tensions have led to an increase in crude oil prices, but the performance of energy and chemical products has deviated from crude oil [1][3] - The mid - term and short - term structures and trading strategies for each product are provided [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - Geopolitical factors, especially the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, are key factors affecting the short - term crude oil market, while the mid - term supply surplus pressure from OPEC+ remains [3][4] - For most products, the mid - term outlook is bearish due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and raw material cost changes [2][4][7] Group 4: Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: The mid - term supply surplus is strong due to OPEC+ production increase, but short - term prices are boosted by geopolitical and macro factors. Focus on the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [4] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Support at 485. Strategy: Wait for the short - term support to break [4] Benzene (Styrene) - Logic: Cost - side pressure from high port inventories of pure benzene and expected supply increase; supply is high and demand is weak. Mid - term bearish [7] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Look for short - selling opportunities after the 7335 support breaks on the 15 - minute cycle [7] Rubber - Logic: Supply increase from the main producing areas and weak terminal demand. Mid - term bearish [10] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Short - selling opportunity at the close of the first K - line in the afternoon [10] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Supply pressure from butadiene production increase and weak demand due to tire inventory. Mid - term bearish [14] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 11470 [14] PX - Logic: Short - term supply - demand is strong due to restart of devices and upcoming maintenance. Focus on crude oil cost [18] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [18] PTA - Logic: Supply increases as maintenance devices restart, and demand is weak. Short - term no inventory pressure but the situation has weakened. Focus on crude oil [20] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 4720 [20] PP - Logic: Weak demand in the off - season and expected supply increase from new device production. Focus on crude oil cost [23] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 6980 [23] Methanol - Logic: High domestic production and import lead to inventory accumulation. Mid - term pressure is large [24] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Wait for the support at 2265 to break for short - selling [24] PVC - Logic: Weak downstream demand in the real - estate downturn and weak export. Bearish fundamentals [27] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 4850 [27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Supply tightens due to domestic device maintenance and reduced imports, and short - term demand is okay. Short - term support exists [32] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 4300 [32] Plastic - Logic: Short - term low production due to device maintenance, but large supply increase expected in the future. Mid - term bearish [33] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Wait for the support at 7085 to break for short - selling [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The urea market is gradually returning to the fundamentals, with market sentiment being mostly wait - and - see. The futures price of urea opened low and closed lower, and the market is waiting for the clarification of export policies. The supply is relatively stable with a slight contraction in weekly output, and the demand shows an increase in the short - term. The market will return to the supply - demand logic, and the short - term trend of the futures is still strong, but the upside and downside space is limited under the macro price - stabilizing policy [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and closed lower, with upstream factory quotes stable. The market is waiting for export policy changes. Supply has a slight weekly contraction, and daily output fluctuates around 200,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the impact of new production capacity on supply. After the export is opened, local supply liquidity may be affected. On the demand side, downstream is cautious about agricultural fertilizer preparation, and the demand for compound fertilizer factories is in the tail - end stage. Inventory has been significantly reduced, and the short - term futures trend is strong, but the price range is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1885 yuan/ton, closed lower, with a closing price of 1885 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.85%, and a position of 239,683 lots (- 5411 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 1145 lots, and short positions increased by 2644 lots. Some futures companies' net long and net short positions changed. On May 16, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7355, a net increase of 3 compared to the previous trading day [2]. Spot - Upstream factory quotes are stable, and the market is waiting for export policy changes. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are in the range of 1830 - 1850 yuan/ton, and those in Shanxi have little change [4]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes are stable, and the futures closing price is up. Based on Shandong, the basis is flat compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract is 43 yuan/ton (+ 15 yuan/ton) [7]. Supply Data - On May 16, 2025, the national daily urea output was 201,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Views - The improvement of tariff policies has led to positive market sentiment, with glass, soda ash, and ferrous alloys showing rebounds [1][3] - Glass and soda ash markets face challenges in supply - demand balance, while ferrous alloys are affected by factors such as tariff policies, industry profits, and raw material costs [1][3] 3. Summary by Product Glass - Market: The glass futures market showed a strong - side oscillation, while the spot market had general transactions with manufacturers offering discounts [1] - Supply - demand: Glass production has been declining, but due to insufficient demand recovery in real estate and deep - processing industries, inventory has increased significantly, and prices lack upward momentum. Enterprises may be more inclined to reduce prices to clear inventory during the high - temperature and rainy season [1] Soda Ash - Market: The soda ash futures market oscillated upwards with a significant increase in trading volume, and the spot market was stable with flexible transaction prices [1] - Supply - demand: Soda ash production has declined due to increased alkali plant maintenance but remains in a loose state. The growth of photovoltaic demand has slowed down, and the pressure to reduce inventory is still large [1] Silicomanganese - Market: After the mutual reduction of tariffs between China and the US, the market sentiment improved, and the silicomanganese futures rebounded slightly. The spot market was fair, with some factories reducing production for maintenance. The northern market price was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the southern market price was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Silicomanganese production has continued to decline due to industry profits and is at a low level over the years. Iron - making water production remains high, providing demand resilience. High inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants suppress prices, but low manganese ore port inventories support alloy costs [3] Ferrosilicon - Market: The ferrosilicon futures rebounded slightly following the black - metal sector, while the spot market was weak with cautious operations. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production area was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Ferrosilicon production remains at a medium - low level due to corporate losses. High iron - making water production maintains demand resilience, and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while downstream enterprise inventories are low. Short - term prices are dragged down by costs [3]