Core Viewpoint - The hot-rolled futures market experienced a significant increase, with the main contract reaching a peak of 3196.00 yuan, closing at 3191.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.24% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, the hot-rolled market is expected to experience short-term rebounds, but caution regarding rhythm and risk control is advised [2] - The macroeconomic environment shows a recovery in manufacturing, with the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI at 50.4, up 2.1 points from May, indicating a return above the critical point [2] - Supply and demand dynamics indicate an increase in weekly hot-rolled production, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.59%, while total inventory saw a slight increase of 0.99 million tons [2] Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to Fozheng Zhongqi Futures, the rebound in hot-rolled prices may face limitations due to various factors, including administrative measures to reduce low-price competition and promote quality improvement in the steel industry [3] - The steel industry has shown decent profitability in the first five months of the year, with black metal and rolling industry profits exceeding those of the same period last year [3] - Current low steel inventory levels reduce the necessity for administrative production cuts, but there are concerns about potential export restrictions on semi-finished products, which could lead to increased domestic production cuts if demand weakens in the third quarter [3]

投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/6/3 | 指标 | | 5月30日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 大连 日照 | 12 | -26 | 2500 1000 | | | ----- 19/20 ------ 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------ 22/23 | | | - 23/24 | - 24/25 | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | | | | | 天津 | -18 | -16 | 1500 | | | | | | | | | | | -68 | -6 | 500 | | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | -38 | -6 | -500 | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 -11/22 | | 173 02/23 | 03/25 | 04/2 ...