成本方面，据东海期货介绍，后期原油仍将受到OPEC+增产冲击而走低，在沥青库存压力增加的情况 下，后期仍需关注原油价格下方支撑力度。 供应端，冠通期货指出，国庆节前一周沥青开工率环比回升5.7个百分点至40.1%，较去年同期高了12.4 个百分点，沥青开工率回升幅度较大，升至近年同期中性水平。据隆众资讯数据，10月份国内沥青预计 排产268.2万吨，环比减少0.4万吨，减幅为0.1%，同比增加35.0万吨，增幅为15.0%。 周五（10月10日）夜盘，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，沥青期货呈现震荡下行走势，主力合约 报收于3307.00元/吨，跌幅达1.17%。 需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，间歇性降水天气抑制南方施工节奏，叠加下游资金压力持续， 采购重心维持低位，高价资源成交仍显乏力。 后市来看，东吴期货表示，9月第4周行业数据显示炼厂供需双强，炼厂开工率进一步上行，时隔两年首 次站上40%，而炼厂出货量因节前备货维持强劲。本周厂库低位反弹，因开工强劲，社会库存持续下 降，曲线仍然显著落后于往年同期，随着旺季不断深入将限制沥青上行空间。隔夜外盘油价小幅下跌， 预计沥青短线走势震荡偏弱。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The hot-rolled futures market experienced a significant increase, with the main contract reaching a peak of 3196.00 yuan, closing at 3191.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.24% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, the hot-rolled market is expected to experience short-term rebounds, but caution regarding rhythm and risk control is advised [2] - The macroeconomic environment shows a recovery in manufacturing, with the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI at 50.4, up 2.1 points from May, indicating a return above the critical point [2] - Supply and demand dynamics indicate an increase in weekly hot-rolled production, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.59%, while total inventory saw a slight increase of 0.99 million tons [2] Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to Fozheng Zhongqi Futures, the rebound in hot-rolled prices may face limitations due to various factors, including administrative measures to reduce low-price competition and promote quality improvement in the steel industry [3] - The steel industry has shown decent profitability in the first five months of the year, with black metal and rolling industry profits exceeding those of the same period last year [3] - Current low steel inventory levels reduce the necessity for administrative production cuts, but there are concerns about potential export restrictions on semi-finished products, which could lead to increased domestic production cuts if demand weakens in the third quarter [3]

投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/6/3 | 指标 | | 5月30日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 大连 日照 | 12 | -26 | 2500 1000 | | | ----- 19/20 ------ 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------ 22/23 | | | - 23/24 | - 24/25 | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | | | | | 天津 | -18 | -16 | 1500 | | | | | | | | | | | -68 | -6 | 500 | | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | -38 | -6 | -500 | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 -11/22 | | 173 02/23 | 03/25 | 04/2 ...