Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the impact of economic indicators, particularly the ISM manufacturing index, on market sentiment and gold's future trajectory [2][6]. Economic Indicators - The ISM manufacturing index for January rose to 52.6, significantly exceeding expectations of 48.5, marking the highest level since February 2022. This increase was driven by robust growth in new orders and production, alleviating market concerns about the economy [2][6]. - The delay in key economic data due to the government shutdown has led to uncertainty in the market, with the December JOLTS job openings report and the non-farm payroll report being postponed [2][6]. Gold Market Analysis - COMEX gold prices closed at $4680.9 per ounce, down 1.35%, while SHFE gold prices ended at 1045.0 yuan per gram, down 3.86% [2][6]. - The article suggests that in the absence of significant economic data, gold prices may continue to undergo technical adjustments in the short term [2][6]. Geopolitical Factors - A breakthrough in trade relations between the U.S. and India has been announced, with President Trump stating that both countries will take immediate action to lower tariffs [7]. - Despite this progress, the complex situation between the U.S. and Iran remains, and core variables supporting precious metals, such as the restructuring of the dollar credit system and the trend of de-dollarization, have not reversed. The long-term driving logic for gold remains intact [7].

国际市场贵金属价格2月3日早盘全线回升。截至国内市场开盘，现货白银日内涨超5%，高点一度触及 84美元／盎司上方；现货黄金收复4800美元／盎司关口，日内涨超3%。现货铂钯也分别涨超2%和3%。 光大期货最新观点也认为，短短两个交易日，贵金属市场经历了"历史级跳水"的巨大波动，这也是对前 期极端超买与过度拥挤交易的一次"挤泡沫和降杠杆"式的强制性清算，但需要指出的是，支撑贵金属的 长期核心变量（如美元信用体系重构、去美元化储备趋势、地缘政治裂痕常态化）并未发生逆转，长期 驱动逻辑依然完整，本轮剧烈调整过后，黄金或陷入平缓波动阶段，继续上行挑战新高则需要更多时间 消化。 值得关注的是，在贵金属尤其是白银价格创纪录暴跌之后，2月2日，全球最大白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust的白银持仓量为单日增加1023.23吨，总持仓从前一交易日的15523.36吨急升至16,546.59吨， 完全回补了自1月21日以来该ETF连续减持的数量。 在此背景下，国内贵金属3日开盘后也普遍回升，其中沪银主力合约打开跌停板，沪金主力合约快速拉 升，日跌幅从2日夜盘收盘的超3%收窄至不足1%。 来源：新华财经 吴郑思 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market opened with more declines than gains, with notable drops in silver and tin futures, down nearly 20% and over 11% respectively [3][7] - SC crude oil fell over 4%, while fuel oil and platinum dropped more than 3% [3][7] - In contrast, shipping European line, aluminum oxide, and PVC saw increases of over 1% [3][7] Group 2 - The overnight London spot precious metals market showed a slight narrowing of declines but remained weak, with domestic silver and platinum-palladium futures continuing to hit the limit down [5][8] - The gold-silver ratio quickly rebounded to 58.1, and the platinum-palladium price spread narrowed to $404 per ounce [5][8] - The US ISM manufacturing index rose to 52.6, significantly exceeding expectations of 48.5, driven by robust growth in new orders and output [5][8] - The recent volatility in the precious metals market is attributed to a forced liquidation due to extreme overbuying and crowded trades, indicating a potential for a more stable phase for gold [5][8] - Silver continues to exhibit high volatility, with the main silver futures contract experiencing a second limit down, which has absorbed much of the risk [5][8] - Despite significant declines in platinum and palladium, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest a potential for buying on dips once gold stabilizes [5][8]

贵金属市场还在大幅波动。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 4779.670 | -115.448 | -2.36% | | 伦敦银现 | 81.976 | -3.283 | -3.85% | | COMEX黄金 | 4815.1 d | 70.0 | 1.48% | | COMEX自银 | 83.685 d | 5.154 | 6.56% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 1066.9297 | -25.7706 | -2.36% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 18298.8849 | -732.8394 | -3.85% | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 2138.29 | -26.21 | -1.21% | | 现货把金(美元/盎司) | 1740.36 | 29.36 | 1.72% | | NYMEX铝 | 2145.8d | 24.2 | 1.14% | | NYMEX | 1760.00 d | 56.90 | 3.34% | 北京时间2月2日晚间，贵金属市场全线反弹，截至发稿，COMEX黄金、COMEX白 ...

1月30日，美联储理事凯文·沃什被提任为下任主席，市场普遍将其视为相对"鹰派"的人选，此举迅速扭 转了市场对美联储未来维持超宽松货币政策的预期，导致美元指数反弹，对以美元计价的贵金属形成直 接打压。但内在原因在于贵金属市场极端拥挤的多头持仓与技术性抛压，触发连锁的"多头踩踏式出 逃"。此外，芝商所上调金银期货保证金比例、主要商品指数因金银权重超标而进行的强制性再平衡抛 售，均放大了技术性卖压。 1月的贵金属市场经历了从"史诗级上涨"到"历史级跳水"的极限波动，但笔者认为，30日的剧烈调整是 对前期极端超买与过度拥挤交易的一次"挤泡沫和降杠杆"式的强制性清算，但支撑贵金属的长期核心变 量（如美元信用体系重构、去美元化储备趋势、地缘政治裂痕常态化）并未发生逆转，长期驱动逻辑依 然完整。进入2月，市场将更加关注宏观、政策信号与地缘事件驱动寻求贵金属的支撑点，波动率仍将 维持高位，但各品种将走向分化。黄金将展现其核心压舱石作用，其走势直接锚定于美元信用与全球避 险情绪，策略上逢低布局，区间操作为主。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2月2日早盘，伦敦现货黄金早盘大幅低开，跌幅一度扩大 ...

摘要今日周一(2月2日)亚盘时段，2月2日早盘，伦敦现货黄金早盘大幅低开，跌幅一度扩大至4%，随后 出现反弹。 1月30日，美联储理事凯文.沃什被提名为下任主席，市场普遍视其为相对"鹰派"的人选。这一提名迅速 扭转了市场对美联储未来维持超宽松货币政策的预期，导致美元指数反弹，进而对以美元计价的贵金属 形成直接压力。然而，更深层次的原因则在于贵金属市场极端拥挤的多头持仓与技术性抛压，触发了连 锁的"多头踩踏式出逃"。此外，芝商所上调金银期货保证金比例以及主要商品指数因金银权重超标而进 行的强制性再平衡抛售，均放大了技术性卖压。 回顾1月的贵金属市场，经历了从"史诗级上涨"到"历史级跳水"的极限波动。笔者认为，30日的剧烈调 整是对前期极端超买与过度拥挤交易的一次"挤泡沫和降杠杆"式的强制性清算。尽管市场经历了如此剧 烈的波动，但支撑贵金属的长期核心变量并未发生逆转，如美元信用体系重构、去美元化储备趋势以及 地缘政治裂痕常态化等。这些长期驱动逻辑依然完整，为贵金属提供了坚实的支撑。 进入2月，市场将更加关注宏观政策信号与地缘事件，以寻求贵金属的支撑点。预计波动率仍将维持高 位，但各品种将走向分化。其中，黄金将展现 ...