证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 多资产周报 "暴走"的汇率 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 | 证券分析师：邵兴宇 证券分析师：田地 | | --- | | 010-88005483 0755-81982035 | | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cntiandi2@guosen.com.cn | S0980523070001 S0980524090003 "暴走"的汇率。春节前后，人民币汇率显著走强，特别是节后日均升 幅一度达到 239 个基点，在短短几天内连续跌破 6.85、6.80 等关键心 理关口。从原因来看，春节错位所带来的结汇需求在近期集中爆发。2026 年 1、2 月份的工作日分布不均，导致大量本该分散在年初的报关和结 汇需求，在 2 月下旬集中爆发。同时，过去 2-3 年，由于各种因素，约 有 1 万亿美元的出口创汇资金留存在海外账户。人民币汇率短时间内的 快速上涨，触发了这部分巨量资金的"避险式结汇"，形成了所谓的"羊 群效应"。此外，金融机构在处理企业的结汇套保业务时，往往处于汇 率空头地位。随着升值预期转强，机构为了对冲风险，必须在即期市场 回补人民币，这进一步放 ...

记者丨刘雪莹 吴斌 编辑丨曾静娇 北京时间2月27日晚，美股三大指数集体走低，三大指数均跌超1%。 大型科技股多数下跌，截至22:42，甲骨文、赛富时跌超4%；美股科技七巨头全线飘绿，英伟达、微软 跌超2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 苹果(APPLE) | 269.160 | -1.39% | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 206.240 | -0.81% | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-C | 306.280 | -0.28% | | 脸书(META PLATFORMS) | 641.605 | -2.34% | | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 393.080 | -2.15% | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 180.740 | -2.24% | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 403.905 | -1.14% | 半导体股集体走低，费城半导体指数领跌市场，蓝博士半导体跌超5%，博通、格芯跌超2%。 云基础设施提供商CoreWeave跌超17%，创去年8月以来最大跌幅，巨额资本开支引发投资者担 忧。 多邻国股价一度跌22%，创下2023年2月 ...

ITC国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2026/2/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2604 | AG2604 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 - | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格最紧 | 2026/2/25 | 5193. 14 | 90. 58 | 5212.00 | 90. 46 | 1151.06 | 23029.00 | 1147.40 | 22105.00 | | (本表数 | 2026/2/24 | 5170. 63 | 87 ...

Core Insights - Global capital markets experienced a majority increase during the Spring Festival holiday, with indices in countries like South Korea, the UK, and France reaching historical highs [1] - The situation surrounding Trump's tariffs remains uncertain, and the outlook for US-Iran conflict appears increasingly pessimistic, contributing to significant rises in international gold, silver, and oil prices, with silver increasing nearly 17% [1] Market Performance Summary - **Dow Jones Index**: Decreased by 1.31% from 49,451.98 to 48,804.06 [2] - **Nasdaq Index**: Slight increase of 0.13% from 22,597.15 to 22,627.27 [2] - **S&P 500 Index**: Marginal increase of 0.07% from 6,832.76 to 6,837.75 [2] - **Hang Seng Index**: Increased by 2.30% from 26,472.19 to 27,081.93 [2] - **Hang Seng Tech Index**: Increased by 1.11% from 5,326.23 to 5,385.35 [2] - **Nikkei 225 Index**: Decreased by 0.20% from 56,941.97 to 56,825.70 [2] - **KOSPI (Korea Composite Index)**: Increased by 6.16% from 5,507.03 to 5,846.09, reaching a new high [2] - **DAX (Germany)**: Increased by 0.54% from 24,852.69 to 24,986.58 [2] - **CAC 40 (France)**: Increased by 1.90% from 8,340.56 to 8,499.01, briefly reaching a new high [2] - **FTSE 100 (UK)**: Increased by 2.71% from 10,402.44 to 10,684.74, briefly reaching a new high [2] Commodity Price Changes - **London Gold Spot**: Increased by 5.87% from 4,946.12 to 5,236.38 [2] - **London Silver Spot**: Increased by 16.81% from 76.11 to 88.91 [2] - **ICE Brent Crude Oil**: Increased by 5.48% from 67.54 to 71.24 [2] - **WTI Crude Oil**: Increased by 6.05% from 62.65 to 66.44 [2] Futures and Cryptocurrency - **A50 Futures**: Increased by 1.00% from 14,719.00 to 14,866.00 [2] - **Bitcoin**: Decreased by 6.74% from 69,129.99 to 64,473.14 [2]

Group 1 - The global precious metals market is experiencing high volatility with gold prices stabilizing above $5,150 per ounce and silver showing slight corrections, influenced by Federal Reserve policy signals and geopolitical risks [1][3] - As of February 23, gold was reported at $5,152.02 per ounce, down $12.61, with a daily high of $5,164.63, while silver was at $86.797 per ounce, down $0.196, with a peak increase of 2.22% during the day [3] - The domestic physical gold market shows a clear divergence, with major retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang maintaining gold prices at 1,560.0 CNY per gram, while other retailers like Chow Sang Sang and King Fook experienced price declines [4] Group 2 - The futures market is underperforming compared to the spot market, with significant declines in futures prices attributed to strong signals from the Federal Reserve indicating no interest rate cuts in the short term, leading to profit-taking in precious metal futures [3][5] - The price of gold T+D in the domestic market was reported at 1,108.5 CNY per gram, down 16.55 CNY, while silver T+D was at 19,270 CNY per kilogram, down 649 CNY, reflecting a downward trend [3] - Experts indicate that the core logic behind the high volatility in the precious metals market is the interplay between risk aversion and Federal Reserve policies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in gold and silver prices, with predictions from Peter Schiff regarding gold reaching $7,000 per ounce, driven by central banks increasing gold reserves and the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 7:45 AM, spot gold was reported at $5,156.67 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 0.89% [2]. - London silver saw a daily increase of over 2% [2]. Group 2: Expert Predictions - Peter Schiff, known for predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, forecasts that gold will replace the U.S. dollar as a new anchor asset [2]. - Schiff believes that the surge in gold prices indicates that the U.S. will face a multifaceted crisis far worse than that of 2008, stemming from a convergence of sovereign credit issues, U.S. Treasury debt, and dollar crises [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that both gold and silver prices have seen significant increases, with gold rising to $5147.760 per ounce, up 0.72%, and silver reaching $86.979 per ounce, up 2.85% [1][3]. - The opening price for gold was $5108.140, with a daily high of $5171.920 and a low of $5097.720, reflecting a trading range of 1.45% [2]. - For silver, the opening price was $84.690, with a daily high of $87.269 and a low of $84.569, showing a trading range of 3.19% [3]. Group 2 - Institutions remain optimistic about the future of gold prices, with ANZ Bank predicting a rise to $5800 per ounce in the second quarter of this year [3]. - China Merchants Bank Capital Market Research Institute has a more aggressive forecast, suggesting that gold prices could challenge $6500 per ounce this year, driven by a focus on the reconstruction of dollar credit and global order [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in gold and silver prices, with gold reaching $5156.67 per ounce and silver increasing by over 2% in a single day. It highlights the prediction by Peter Schiff, known for forecasting the 2008 financial crisis, that gold prices could soar to $7000, potentially replacing the US dollar as a new anchor asset. This prediction is driven by factors such as increased gold purchases by central banks and the growing US fiscal deficit, suggesting a looming multifaceted crisis in the US that could surpass the 2008 crisis due to the interplay of sovereign credit, US Treasury bonds, and the dollar crisis [1]. Group 1 - Gold prices have risen to $5156.67 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 0.89% [1] - Silver prices have increased by over 2% in the same timeframe [1] - Peter Schiff predicts gold could reach $7000, driven by central bank purchases and US fiscal deficits [1] Group 2 - Schiff warns of a complex crisis in the US that could exceed the 2008 financial crisis [1] - The potential crisis is attributed to the interaction of sovereign credit issues, US Treasury bonds, and the dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have seen a significant increase, with gold reaching $5148.75 per ounce, up 0.74%, and silver rising nearly 2% [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 7:15 AM, spot gold was priced at $5148.75 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 0.74% [5]. - London silver opened at $86.150, marking an increase of 1.87% from the previous close of $84.569 [7]. Group 2: Future Price Predictions - ANZ Bank forecasts that gold prices will reach $5800 per ounce in the second quarter of this year, driven by central bank and investment demand, expanding fiscal deficits, declining U.S. real interest rates, and geopolitical risks [2][6]. - UBS has a more aggressive prediction, suggesting that gold could peak at $6200 per ounce by mid-year [2]. - Jefferies has raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4200 to $5000, citing inflation and dollar depreciation as key factors [3][8]. - Peter Schiff predicts that gold prices could soar to $7000, driven by increased gold purchases by central banks and the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit [3][8].

Group 1 - The international precious metals futures prices have generally declined, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 2.33% to $4896.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling by 3.93% to $73.55 per ounce [1] - Spot gold decreased by 2.33% to $4878.89 per ounce, while spot silver fell by 4.16% to $73.50 per ounce [1] - This morning, some precious metal prices continue to show a trend of fluctuating declines [1] Group 2 - Current prices for London gold and silver are reported at 4875.790 and 73.432 respectively, with slight changes of -0.02% and -0.08% [2] - COMEX gold is priced at 4887.1, reflecting a decrease of 0.38% [2] - COMEX silver is at 73.400, down by 0.19%, while SHFE gold and silver are reported at 1110.10 and 19782 respectively, with declines of 1.61% and 5.52% [2]