1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to show a range - bound oscillation due to the repeated geopolitical news and the risk of further escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, they are likely to gradually build a bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the supporting factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the huge US debt, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases remain solid. As factors like geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to emerge from the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment [6] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On March 31, 2026, London gold spot was at $4557.00 per ounce, London silver spot at $72.02 per ounce, COMEX gold at $4586.90 per ounce, COMEX silver at $72.20 per ounce, AU2606 at 1020.10 yuan per gram, AG2606 at 18126 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) at 1016.58 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) at 18052 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 30, 2026, the price increases were 0.6%, 2.4%, 0.7%, 2.6%, 0.5%, 2.4%, 0.6%, and 2.1% respectively [5] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On March 31, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.52 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 74 yuan per kilogram, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 2.81 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 46 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 56.28, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 63.53, AU2608 - 2606 was 3.04 yuan per gram, and AG2608 - 2606 was - 12 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 30, 2026, the changes were - 26.1%, 196.0%, 28.2%, - 2003.6%, - 1.8%, - 1.9%, 19.7%, and - 52.0% respectively [5] 3.2 Position Data - **ETF Positions**: On March 30, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1046.13 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15288.3594 tons. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were - 0.33% and - 0.79% respectively [5] - **COMEX Non - commercial Positions**: As of March 24, 2026, the COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 220861 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52534 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 168327 contracts. The COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 33938 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 9265 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 24673 contracts. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were 2.27%, - 6.34%, 5.29%, 9.04%, 0.23%, and 12.76% respectively [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On March 31, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory data was N/A, and the SHFE silver inventory data was N/A [5] - **COMEX Inventory**: On March 30, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 31536505 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 327589421 troy ounces. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were - 0.56% and - 0.22% respectively [5] 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Exchange Rates**: On March 31, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.92, with a change of - 0.04% compared with March 30, 2026 [5] - **Interest Rates and Stock Market**: On March 30, 2026, the US dollar index was 100.51, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.82%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 30.61, the S&P 500 was 6343.72, and NYMEX crude oil was $105.01. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were 0.33%, - 1.55%, - 2.03%, - 1.42%, - 0.39%, and 3.79% respectively [5] 3.5 Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On August 31, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.46% to 1020.1 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.41% to 18126 yuan per kilogram [5] - **Influence Analysis**: Fed Chairman Powell's statement eased short - term market concerns about interest rate hikes, causing the US dollar index and US bond yields to decline. The market trading logic shifted from inflation to stagflation, supporting precious metal prices. However, the Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, with the risk of further escalation, which may cause short - term suppression of precious metal prices [6] - **Future Market Analysis**: In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to oscillate within a range. In the long term, they are likely to gradually build a bottom and return to the long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the long - term layout opportunity [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With more news about US - Iran contact and negotiation, market panic has eased, core variable oil prices have not continued to rise significantly, and dollar liquidity tightening has also been alleviated, supporting the rebound of precious metal prices. However, as there is no substantial sign of easing in the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US is still deploying troops to the Middle East, the precious metal market may still fluctuate around geopolitical news in the short - term [4]. - In the short - term, as panic selling eases, precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and enter a wide - range shock. It is recommended to participate with a light position in the short - term. In the long - term, the deep adjustment of precious metal prices does not mean the end of the "bull market", and long - term support factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the US huge debt, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases remain strong. As factors such as geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to get out of the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to grasp the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 25, 2026, London gold spot was $4547.63/ounce, London silver spot was $73.15/ounce, COMEX gold was $4546.50/ounce, COMEX silver was $73.29/ounce, AU2604 was 1011.04 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 18174 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1010.69 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 18100 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the price increases were 3.1%, 5.5%, 3.0%, 5.4%, 3.5%, 5.7%, 3.4%, and 6.3% respectively [3]. - Regarding price differences/ratios, on March 25, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 0.35 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 74 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was 3.14 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was - 189 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 55.63, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 62.04, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.92 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 63 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were - 229.6%, - 54.0%, - 1203.8%, - 37.0%, - 2.1%, - 2.3%, 15.9%, and - 42.7% respectively [3]. 2. Position Data - As of March 24, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.99 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15513.67372 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 215961 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 56092 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 159869 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 31125 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 9244 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 21881 contracts. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were 0.03%, 0.00%, 0.24%, 7.22%, - 2.00%, - 6.55%, 5.91%, and - 10.97% respectively [3]. 3. Inventory Data - On March 25, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106743.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 376094.00 kilograms. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were 0.00% and 2.78% respectively. On March 24, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 32016435 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 331451807 troy ounces. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05% and - 0.19% respectively [3]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 25, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89. On March 24, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.23, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.90%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.39%, the VIX was 26.95, the S&P 500 was 6556.37, and NYWEX crude oil was 88.39. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05%, 0.07%, 1.83%, 1.15%, 3.06%, - 0.37%, and - 0.54% respectively [3]. 5. Market Review - On March 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 3.55% to 1013.96 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 7.05% to 1811 yuan/kilogram [3]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in precious metal prices on March 23 was due to the continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, which led to high oil prices and market concerns about interest rate hikes, causing a sell - off in the precious metal market. However, as the market panic eased at night, precious metal prices rebounded [6]. - In the short term, with the temporary alleviation of market panic, precious metal prices are expected to stabilize, but the market may remain highly volatile due to the unstable Middle - East geopolitical situation, so investors are advised to trade with light positions. In the long term, the long - term allocation value of gold still exists, and central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which can support precious metal prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - On March 23, 2026, London gold spot was at $4211.63/ounce, London silver spot was at $62.72/ounce, COMEX gold was at $4215.50/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $62.96/ounce. Compared with March 20, 2026, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 9.8% - 9.9% and silver down about 12.2% - 12.5% [5]. - For domestic futures, AU2604 was at 940 yuan/gram and AG2604 was at 15498 yuan/kilogram on March 23, 2026, with a decline of about 9.5% and 12.5% respectively compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. Spread/Ratio - On March 23, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.01 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 134 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 20, 2026, the spreads increased, with the gold spread up 40.3% and the silver spread up 148.1% [5]. - The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 60.65 and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 66.96 on March 23, 2026, with increases of 3.4% and 2.7% respectively compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. Position Data - As of March 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1056.99 tons, with a decrease of 0.48% compared to March 19, 2026. The silver ETF - SLV was 15248.90453 tons, with an increase of 0.41% [5]. - For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long - position quantity was 215961 contracts, the short - position quantity was 56092 contracts, and the net long - position quantity was 159869 contracts as of March 20, 2026. Compared with March 19, 2026, the long - position quantity increased by 0.24%, the short - position quantity increased by 7.22%, and the net long - position quantity decreased by 2.00% [5]. - For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long - position quantity was 31125 contracts, the short - position quantity was 9244 contracts, and the net long - position quantity was 21881 contracts as of March 20, 2026. Compared with March 19, 2026, the long - position quantity decreased by 6.55%, the short - position quantity increased by 5.91%, and the net long - position quantity decreased by 10.97% [5]. Inventory Data - On March 23, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 106746.00 kilograms, with a decrease of 0.09% compared to March 20, 2026. SHFE silver inventory was 364549.00 kilograms, with an increase of 0.57% [5]. - On March 20, 2026, COMEX gold inventory was 32054275 troy ounces, with no change compared to March 19, 2026. COMEX silver inventory was 332695255 troy ounces, with a decrease of 0.59% [5]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 23, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90, with an increase of 0.21% compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. - On March 20, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.51, with an increase of 0.33% compared to March 19, 2026. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, with an increase of 2.37%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.39%, with an increase of 3.29% [5]. - The VIX was 26.78 on March 20, 2026, with an increase of 11.31% compared to March 19, 2026. The S&P 500 was 6506.48, with a decrease of 1.51%, and NYMEX crude oil was 98.09, with an increase of 3.70% [5]. Market Review - On March 23, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 8.62% to 940 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 11.67% to 15411 yuan/kilogram [5]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals experienced a significant decline on March 23, with spot gold dropping over 7% and spot silver falling over 9% [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Spot gold fell to $4168.355 per ounce, down $323.315, representing a decrease of 7.20% [2] - Spot silver decreased to $61.555 per ounce, down $6.342, reflecting a decline of 9.34% [2] - Spot platinum dropped over 7% to $1780 per ounce, down $145.80, which is a 7.57% decrease [3] - Spot palladium fell over 3% to $1356.09 per ounce, down $52.45, indicating a 3.72% decline [3] Group 2: Futures Market - COMEX gold prices decreased to $4253.4, down $321.5, which is a 7.03% drop [2] - COMEX silver prices fell to $62.215, down $7.449, representing a decline of 10.69% [2] - NYMEX platinum prices dropped to $1749.5, down $221.0, indicating an 11.22% decrease [3] - NYMEX palladium prices fell to $1343.50, down $101.70, reflecting a 7.04% decline [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation and oil prices continue to impact precious metal prices. High oil prices drive up inflation concerns and raise interest - rate hike expectations, leading to significant declines in gold and silver prices. The risk appetite has cooled, and financial assets have fallen across the board. Gold and silver are under significant downward pressure, and their prices are positively correlated with risk appetite [10]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle East impact, raised inflation expectations, and still expected one interest - rate cut this year. Central banks around the world have taken different stances in response to the situation, with some maintaining rates and adjusting their policy outlooks [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - Gold and silver prices dropped significantly: Shanghai Gold Futures (2604) fell 8.97%, COMEX Gold (2604) fell 11.26%, Shanghai Silver Futures (2606) fell 18.69%, and COMEX Silver (2605) fell 16.64%. The US dollar index declined 0.99%, and the RMB appreciated slightly by 0.02% [4][10]. - The US PPI far exceeded expectations, with the February PPI rising 0.7% month - on - month, far higher than the expected 0.3%, and 3.4% year - on - year, while the core PPI reached a one - year high of 3.9%, further compressing the Fed's room for interest - rate cuts this year [11]. - The Middle East situation remained tense. The South Pars Gas Field in Iran and some petrochemical facilities in Assaluyeh were attacked by the US and Israel. Qatar reported that the Iranian attacks damaged 17% of LNG production capacity. Oil prices fluctuated significantly [10][13]. 3.2 Weekly Review - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposed the decision and advocated a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The Fed raised GDP and inflation expectations for this year and the next [10][11]. - The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged but warned about the impact of oil price hikes on inflation. The European Central Bank maintained rates at 2% for the sixth consecutive time, with a tougher policy stance. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged, removed the "rate - cut" wording, and signaled a possible rate hike [10][12]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The gold - to - silver ratio declined again, with the domestic gold - to - silver ratio returning to 59.98 [15]. - The US 10 - year Treasury yield fell below 4% [21]. 3.4 Position Data - For Shanghai Gold, the net long position continued to decrease, with more long - position cuts and short - position increases. For Shanghai Silver, the net long position continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [10]. - As of March 17, the CFTC net long position in gold increased slightly, with both long and short positions rising. The CFTC net long position in silver decreased, with more long - position cuts and short - position increases [10][27]. - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings continued to decline, and the silver ETF holdings also decreased significantly [30][32]. - Shanghai Gold inventory continued to increase, while COMEX Gold inventory continued to decrease. Shanghai Silver inventory stopped falling and rebounded, and COMEX Silver inventory continued to decline [34][36]. 3.5 Summary - High oil prices drive up interest - rate hike expectations, putting significant downward pressure on gold and silver, especially with the low risk appetite, the pressure on gold and silver continues to increase [10].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The short - term trading of the weakening of the market's loose expectations for major global central banks may continue due to the unresolved Middle - East geopolitical situation, suppressing precious metal prices. However, in the long - term, the allocation value of gold remains. Global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support precious metal prices. After recent shocks, the space for a significant decline in precious metal prices may be limited, and long - term long positions can be considered for allocation [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Tracking - On March 20, 2026, London gold spot was at $4673.91/ounce, London silver spot was at $71.68/ounce, COMEX gold was at $4675.70/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $71.70/ounce. Compared with March 19, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 1.9% and silver down about 0.8% - 4.0%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also declined, with AU2604 down 2.1% and AG2604 down 1.7% [3] - The price differences between domestic and foreign markets also changed significantly. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference decreased by 104.3% from March 19 to March 20 [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1056.99 tons, a decrease of 0.48% from March 19. The silver ETF - SLV was 15248.90453 tons, an increase of 0.41% [3] - For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the number of long positions increased by 0.24%, and the number of short positions increased by 7.22%. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the number of long positions decreased by 2.00%, and the number of short positions increased by 5.91% [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 20, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106845.00 kg, unchanged from March 19. The SHFE silver inventory was 362495.00 kg, a decrease of 0.65% [3] - The COMEX gold inventory was 32054275 troy ounces, unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory was 332695255 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.59% [3] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 20, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89, a decrease of 0.11% from March 19. The US dollar index was 99.51, an increase of 0.33% [3] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, an increase of 2.37%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4%, an increase of 3.29%. The VIX index increased by 11.31%, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.51%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 3.70% [3] 5. Market Review - On March 20, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 3.83% to 1039.22 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 6.25% to 17625 yuan/kg [3] 6. Impact Analysis - Affected by the continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, oil prices remained high. The market traded the logic that "rising oil prices weaken the expectation of interest rate cuts", leading to a panic of interest rate hike expectations, a liquidity shock in the capital market, and a continuous sharp decline in precious metal prices [4] - The market generally expects the European and British central banks to raise interest rates 2 - 3 times this year. Traders on Friday evening expected the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in October to be close to 50% and in December to be close to 100%. As a result, US Treasury yields rose significantly, and precious metal prices were further pressured [4] 7. Future Market Analysis - In the short term, as the Middle - East geopolitical situation shows no sign of easing, the trading of the weakening of the market's loose expectations for major global central banks may continue, and precious metal prices are expected to be under pressure [4] - In the long term, the allocation value of gold remains. Global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support precious metal prices. After recent shocks, the space for a significant decline in precious metal prices may be limited [4]

Liquidity Data - The U.S. Dollar Index fell 1% from above 100 to 99.5[2] - Brent crude oil prices reached $104.4 per barrel[10] - Spot gold prices declined by 10.5% for the week, while silver dropped by 15.7%[10] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose sharply by 9.5 basis points to 4.37%[12] Selected Research Highlights - Oil prices surged past $105 per barrel due to transit disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz[31] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a re-evaluation of the strategic value of the Western nuclear power supply chain[31] - The U.S. consumer sector is facing stagflation risks as oil prices rise and employment data falls short of expectations[38] - Qatar's LNG exports have significantly decreased, contributing to high natural gas prices[57]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, precious metal prices may still be under pressure due to geopolitical games in the Middle East and a significant retreat in the market's expectations of easing by major global central banks. Whether this trading situation can ease depends on the intensity and duration of the current Middle East geopolitical conflict [3]. - In the long - term, the allocation value of gold remains. Against the backdrop of continuous global geopolitical uncertainties and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support precious metal prices. After recent shocks, it is less likely for precious metal prices to continue to decline significantly, and investors can consider long - term long - position allocation opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **15 - point price on March 19, 2026**: London gold spot was $4765.37/ounce, London silver spot was $72.25/ounce, COMEX gold was $4767.50/ounce, COMEX silver was $74.70/ounce, AU2604 was 1062 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 18023 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1078.69 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 18450 yuan/kilogram [4]. - **Price changes from March 18 to March 19**: London gold spot dropped 4.9%, London silver spot dropped 9.5%, COMEX gold dropped 4.9%, COMEX silver dropped 6.6%, AU2604 dropped 4.6%, AG2604 dropped 9.9%, AU (T + D) dropped 3.0%, and AG (T + D) dropped 7.5% [4]. - **Spread/ratio tracking**: On March 19, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 16.69 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was 427 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 21.92 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 306 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 58.92, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 63.82, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.26 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 30 yuan/kilogram [4]. Position Data - **As of March 18, 2026**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1066.99 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 15264.40028 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 215445 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52313 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 163132 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 8728 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 24578 contracts [4]. - **Changes from March 17 to March 18**: Gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.24%, silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.81%, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 0.79%, non - commercial short positions decreased by 2.41%, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 1.87%, non - commercial short positions decreased by 19.84%, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 5.31% [4]. Inventory Data - **On March 19, 2026**: SHFE gold inventory was 106845 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 364865 kilograms. On March 18, COMEX gold inventory was 32140344 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 335075635 troy ounces [4]. - **Inventory changes**: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 5.17%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.30%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.83% [4]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - **On March 19, 2026**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90. On March 18, the US dollar index was 100.30, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.76%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26%, VIX was 25.09, the S&P 500 was 6624.70, and NYMEX crude oil was $99.05 [4]. - **Rate changes**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.10%, the US dollar index increased by 0.74%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 2.17%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.43%, VIX increased by 12.16%, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.36%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 3.16% [4]. Market Analysis - **Market review**: On March 19, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 4.64% to 1062 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 10.35% to 17984 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Influence analysis**: The mutual attacks on oil and gas infrastructure between Israel and Iran boosted oil prices, and the hawkish remarks of the Fed's Powell after the August interest - rate decision led to a sharp decline in precious metal prices. The market once expected the Bank of England to raise interest rates three times this year due to the Middle East geopolitical situation. The hawkish stance of the Fed triggered a wave of interest - rate hike trading in the precious metal market, causing a liquidity shock and a sharp decline in precious metal prices. Subsequently, the market's liquidity risk eased, and the decline in precious metal prices narrowed [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 18, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.79% to 1,116.2 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.19% to 20,308 yuan/kilogram [3]. - The attack by Israel on Iran's largest gas field and subsequent escalation of Middle - East geopolitical tensions, along with the large - than - expected increase in US PPI in February and market concerns about a further sharp rise in March, have weakened the Fed's rate - cut expectation this year, putting heavy pressure on precious metal prices [3]. - In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical situation may not ease and has a risk of further escalation. The intensifying energy crisis may continue to impact the precious metal market, but the room for a further significant decline in precious metal prices is relatively limited. In the long run, with the probability of the Fed cutting rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies can choose to gradually allocate long positions on dips recently [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **内外盘金银15点价格**: On March 18, 2026, London gold spot was $5,011.01/ounce, London silver spot was $79.84/ounce, COMEX gold was $5,015.40/ounce, COMEX silver was $80.00/ounce. Compared with March 17, the prices of gold remained almost unchanged, and silver dropped by 1.1%. For domestic contracts, AU2604 was 1,113.52 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 19,997 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1,112 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 19,948 yuan/kilogram, with decreases of 0.2% - 1.8% [3]. - **价差/比价跟踪**: On March 18, 2026, the gold ID - SHFE active price difference was - 1.52 yuan/gram, the silver ID - SHFE active price difference was - 49 yuan/kilogram. The gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) was 1.82 yuan/gram, and the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 35 yuan/kilogram. The SHFE gold - silver main contract ratio was 55.68, and the COMEX gold - silver main contract ratio was 62.70. Compared with March 17, the price difference and ratio had different degrees of changes, with the largest change in the silver ID - SHFE active price difference, a decrease of 63.2% [3]. 2. Position Data - As of March 17, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1,069.56 tons, a decrease of 0.11% compared with March 16. The silver ETF - SLV was 15,389.752 tons, an increase of 0.22%. For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long position was 215,445 contracts, an increase of 0.79%, the short position was 52,313 contracts, a decrease of 2.41%, and the net long position was 163,132 contracts, an increase of 1.87%. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long position was 33,306 contracts, a decrease of 2.69%, the short position was 8,728 contracts, a decrease of 19.84%, and the net long position was 24,578 contracts, an increase of 5.31% [3]. 3. Inventory Data - On March 18, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106,845 kilograms, an increase of 1.45% compared with March 17. The SHFE silver inventory was 346,920 kilograms, a decrease of 1.93%. On March 17, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 32,236,075 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.49% compared with March 16, and the COMEX silver inventory was 337,892,693 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.50% [3]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 18, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89, a decrease of 0.08% compared with March 17. The US dollar index was 99.56, a decrease of 0.25% compared with March 16. The 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.68%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.20%, a decrease of 0.71%. The VIX index was 22.37, a decrease of 4.85%. The S&P 500 index was 6,716.09, an increase of 0.25%. The NYMEX crude oil price was $96.02, an increase of 1.91% [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, geopolitical games and oil price changes may continue to affect precious metal prices, with the trend likely to remain range - bound. The focus should be on Middle - East geopolitical developments, oil price trends, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week. The "oil price increase + rising inflation expectations + weakening rate - cut expectations" trading narrative may be gradually digested by the market. Given high global geopolitical uncertainty, the room for a significant decline in precious metal prices is relatively limited. In the long - term, with the probability of Fed rate cuts this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the center of precious metal prices still has room to rise. Long - term strategies can consider gradually allocating long positions on dips recently [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On March 17, 2026, London gold spot was at $5011.82/ounce, London silver spot at $80.73/ounce, COMEX gold at $5015.80/ounce, COMEX silver at $80.89/ounce, AU2604 at 1116.20 yuan/gram, AG2604 at 20371.00 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) at 1114.70 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) at 20238.00 yuan/kg. Compared with March 16, the price of London silver spot rose 0.7%, COMEX silver rose 0.8%, AU2604 fell 0.2%, and AU (T + D) fell 0.2% [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On March 17, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.5 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 133 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 3.51 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 10 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 54.79, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 62.01. Compared with March 16, the gold TD - SHFE active spread rose 11.9%, the silver TD - SHFE active spread fell 16.9%, the gold internal - external spread fell 11.5%, and the silver internal - external spread fell 90.0% [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 16, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1070.71 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15355.94899 tons. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 215445 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52313 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 163132 contracts. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 33306 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 8728 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 24578 contracts. Compared with March 13, the gold ETF - SPDR fell 0.08%, the silver ETF - SLV fell 0.67%, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold rose 0.79%, and the non - commercial short positions of COMEX gold fell 2.41% [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 17, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 105315.00 kg, and SHFE silver inventory was 353763.00 kg. On March 16, COMEX gold inventory was 32396398 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 339582263 troy ounces. Compared with March 16, SHFE gold inventory fell 0.10%, and SHFE silver inventory rose 6.97%. Compared with March 13, COMEX gold inventory fell 0.48%, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.63% [3] 4. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On March 17, 2026, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 6.90. On March 16, the US dollar index was 99.80, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.68%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, the VIX was 23.51, the S&P 500 was 6699.38, and NYMEX crude oil was 94.22. Compared with March 16, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate fell 0.14%. Compared with March 13, the US dollar index fell 0.70%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.34%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.17%, the VIX fell 13.53%, the S&P 500 rose 1.01%, and NYMEX crude oil fell 5.13% [3] 5. Market Review - On March 17, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.79% to 1116.2 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.19% to 20308 yuan/kg [3] 6. Impact Analysis - The US - Iran geopolitical conflict shows no sign of easing. High oil prices increase inflation risks and weaken the Fed's rate - cut expectations, which is negative for precious metal prices. However, as ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz and US officials soothe the market, the rise in oil prices has slowed, weakening inflation concerns, the US dollar index has fallen, and the decline in precious metal prices has slowed, turning into a volatile trend [4]