" 原本觉得俄乌冲突比较容易解决，事实上，这是最难解决的冲突。 "8 月 19 日，美国总统特朗普在 接受采访时表示。 前一天，特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基在白宫举行双边会晤，一扫半年前双方激烈争吵的阴霾。随 后双方与欧洲及北约领导人展开多边会谈。 这两场会晤就乌克兰未来安全保障以及推动俄乌高层会晤等议题进行了讨论。 目前，泽连斯基与俄罗斯总统普京之间的会晤安排已步入筹备阶段。泽连斯基8月20日在会见记者 时说，双边或三边会晤可能在瑞士、奥地利等欧洲中立国或土耳其举行。 若进展顺利，美方拟进一步推动举行美俄乌三方会议。持续三年半的俄乌冲突，能否迎来一个走向 和平的关键窗口期？ 安全保障悬而未决 8月15日，特朗普与普京在阿拉斯加会晤，这是美俄领导人四年来的首次面对面会晤，也是特朗普 与普京自2019年以来的首次见面，同时也是近10年来俄总统首次踏上美国领土。 尽管长达两个半小时的会谈并未达成任何具体协议，但双方为接下来的俄乌外交突破奠定了基础。 8月18日，特朗普在白宫先后与泽连斯基和欧洲领导人举行会晤。 泽连斯基一改6个月前与特朗普争吵的强硬态度，身穿黑色衬衫和夹克，发言时十秒内连说四次"谢 谢"，显示其姿态 ...

Economic Growth and Indicators - The U.S. GDP for the second quarter showed an annualized growth rate of 3%, reversing the first quarter's contraction of -0.5% and significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index recorded an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter but still above the expected 2.3%, indicating a rebound in inflationary pressures [1][2] Factors Influencing Economic Performance - A significant decline in imports and a rapid increase in consumer spending were identified as key factors for the unexpected growth in the second quarter [2] - Net exports contributed 5 percentage points to GDP due to new tariff measures that led to a decrease in imports, contrasting with the previous quarter's surge in imports driven by export countries [2] Employment and Consumer Spending - Consumer spending grew by 1.4% in the second quarter, slightly below the expected 1.5%, suggesting a gradual weakening of real demand [2] - The ADP employment report for July showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expectation of 76,000, but still falling short of last year's average levels, reflecting cautious hiring decisions amid tariff policy uncertainties [2][4] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the current interest rates during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September due to ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [4] - The Fed's decision comes in the context of a significant decline in the dollar's value, which has dropped over 10% this year due to weak economic data and concerns over a potential recession [4] Market Outlook - The unexpected economic data for the second quarter has alleviated recession fears, while the clarity in trade negotiations among developed economies is expected to influence the future trajectory of the dollar and gold prices [5]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the continuous prevention and resolution of risks in key areas, including resolving local government debt risks, implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and promoting reforms [2]. - The CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Communist Party personages, stressing the need to adhere to the general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, boost consumption, and promote economic circulation [2]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao mentioned that under the guidance of the two heads of state, China and the US have formed relevant consensuses and frameworks in the economic and trade field, and the two teams held talks in Stockholm [2]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange imposed a 5 - day trading ban on a client for exceeding the daily trading limit in the container shipping index (European line) futures contract on July 30 [3]. - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with some members opposing and advocating for a rate cut, and Powell avoiding guidance on a September rate cut [3] 2. Sector Performance - **Key Focus**: Glass, coking coal, soda ash, PVC, and synthetic rubber [4] - **Night Session Performance**: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.58%, precious metals 27.23%, oilseeds 11.99%, non - ferrous metals 21.40%, soft commodities 2.68%, coal - coke - steel - ore 15.03%, energy 3.39%, chemicals 11.71%, grains 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.87% [4] 3. Sector Position - The report shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, etc [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.17 | 4.97 | 7.88 | | | SSE 50 | 0.38 | 3.96 | 5.01 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.02 | 5.47 | 5.50 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.65 | 6.75 | 10.29 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.12 | 2.55 | 8.18 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 1.36 | 4.59 | 25.51 | | | German DAX | 0.19 | 1.47 | 21.86 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.05 | 0.41 | 1.91 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.01 | 4.29 | 11.79 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Futures | 0.15 | - 0.55 | - 0.57 | | | 5 - year Treasury Futures | 0.08 | - 0.50 | - 0.85 | | | 2 - year Treasury Futures | 0.03 | - 0.16 | - 0.62 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 2.92 | 3.11 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.57 | 8.15 | - 2.25 | | | London Spot Gold | - 1.53 | - 0.82 | 24.80 | | | LME Copper | - 0.69 | - 1.50 | 10.80 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.56 | 2.17 | 16.29 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 1.06 | 3.30 | - 7.85 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 4.48 | - 7.90 | [6]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Safe-Haven Demand Cools, Pressuring Gold and Silver [1] Report Date - July 28, 2025 [2] Report Author - Bai Suna [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With Trump announcing trade agreements with more countries, global trade tensions ease, reducing safe-haven demand and pressuring precious metal prices. Monitor the progress of US-EU negotiations and China-US-Sweden economic and trade talks, and beware of tariff policy fluctuations as the August 1 tariff suspension period ends [5] - The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in July and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, indicating the end of the ECB's easing cycle. The Fed is also likely to keep rates unchanged in July, temporarily suppressing precious metal prices. Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut rates continues, but the dollar credit risk is alleviated, weakening gold's short-term upward drive. However, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is over 60%, providing medium-term support for gold prices. Focus on key US economic data this week [5] - In the first half of the week, the commodity trading limit-up atmosphere boosted Shanghai silver to break through the 9,500 yuan/kg mark. But as gold weakened and commodities tumbled on Friday night, silver prices were dragged down. As the irrational commodity rally subsides, silver's short-term resilience may weaken, and it is expected to return to fundamental logic in the medium term [5] - Strategy: Buy gold on dips; stay on the sidelines for silver [5] - Long-term view: Bullish. With the Fed likely to cut rates in the second half of the year, global geopolitical tensions remaining complex, de-globalization intensifying, and the weakening of the US dollar credit, central banks will continue to be net buyers of gold, providing long-term support for gold prices [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking Gold and Silver Prices and Gold-Silver Ratio - London spot gold was at $3,336.22/oz, down $13.435 (-0.40%) from the previous week; Shanghai gold futures were at 777.32 yuan/g, up 0.3 yuan (0.04%) [4] - London spot silver was at $38.137/oz, down $0.01 (-0.03%) from the previous week; Shanghai silver futures were at 9,392 yuan/kg, up 119 yuan (1.28%) [4] - SHFE gold-silver ratio was 82.76, down 1.03 (-1.23%) from the previous week [4] ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR-ETF holdings were 957.09 tons, up 13.47 tons (1.43%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX gold non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 253,038 contracts, up 39,923 contracts (18.73%) from the previous week [4] - Silver SLV-ETF holdings were 15,230 tons, up 572 tons (3.90%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 60,620 contracts, up 1,172 contracts (1.97%) from the previous week [4] Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory was 30.258 tons, up 1.4 tons (4.85%) from the previous week; COMEX gold inventory was 1,174.54 tons, up 17.74 tons (1.53%) from the previous week [4] - SHFE silver inventory was 1,187 tons, down 23.82 tons (-1.97%) from the previous week; COMEX silver inventory was 15,562 tons, up 95.7 tons (0.62%) from the previous week; SGE silver inventory (lagging one week) was 1,312 tons, down 15.21 tons (-1.15%) from the previous week [4] 2. Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was 97.6701, down 0.7899 (-0.80%) from the previous week; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1681, down 0.0129 (-0.18%) from the previous week [4] - The 2-year US Treasury yield was 3.9275%, up 0.0647 (1.67%) from the previous week; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.3878%, down 0.0217 (-0.49%) from the previous week; the US 10-year real interest rate was 1.96%, down 0.07 (-3.45%) from the previous week [4] Economic Data - The US first-quarter GDP growth rate unexpectedly contracted; the consumer confidence index improved for the first time in half a year [59] - The US manufacturing PMI and service PMI were better than expected; the US retail sales data showed positive trends [60] - The US June non-farm payrolls were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate declined [66] - Inflation in the US rebounded slightly, but inflation expectations cooled [73] - The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded; the eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined [82] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, with 73.9 million ounces at the end of June, a month-on-month increase of 700,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) [91] - Global central banks remained net buyers of gold. In the first quarter of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net-purchased 243.7 tons of gold, a year-on-year decrease of about 21.4%. Despite the decline in the first quarter, the overall performance remained strong, and global central banks were expected to continue net-purchasing gold [91]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - On July 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations with a one - year term [2] - As of now, the central budget investment in 2025 has been basically allocated, supporting various fields such as modern industrial system and infrastructure [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will accelerate the research and listing of power futures [2] - The EU has a 93 - billion - euro anti - tariff plan against the US, India aims to reach trade agreements with the US and has signed one with the UK [2] - Trump asked Powell to cut interest rates, and Trump's ally sued Powell to require FOMC to hold public meetings [3] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, glass, coke, ethylene glycol, and pulp [4] 3. Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.54%, precious metals 28.82%, oilseeds 12.19%, non - ferrous metals 2.90%, soft commodities 19.60%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.93%, energy 3.22%, chemicals 11.79%, grains 1.15%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.88% [4] 4. Major Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65%, the S&P 500 0.07%, and the Hang Seng Index 0.51% [6] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures declined [6] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index rose 0.17%, WTI crude oil 1.46%, and London spot gold fell 0.55% [6] - Other assets: the US dollar index rose 0.29%, and the CBOE volatility remained unchanged [6]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 rising by 0.53%, 0.25%, and 0.32% respectively, with the Nasdaq closing at a record high [2] - Tesla's stock rose over 3%, increasing its market capitalization by $35.077 billion (approximately ¥251.85 billion) [4] Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June increased by 2.3% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.5%, while the core PPI rose by 2.6%, also below the anticipated 2.7% [6] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated a slight increase in economic activity from late May to early July, but high uncertainty continues to make businesses cautious [9] Commodity Prices - International gold prices saw an increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.52% and London spot gold increasing by 0.69%, both experiencing intraday gains of over 1% [7] Sector Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.41%, while Yatsen Holding surged over 14% and Baozun increased by over 8% [5]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide long - term and stable investment of insurance funds and strengthen long - cycle assessment of state - owned commercial insurance companies, which helps improve the enthusiasm of insurance funds to invest in the A - share market [2] - In the second quarter, high - frequency data in multiple fields improved, with offline consumption heat index up 25.5%, offline service consumption index up 33.4%, and key project investment index up 25.7% [2] - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise coke prices by 50 yuan per ton from July 15, with first - tier metallurgical coke up 50 yuan/ton, second - tier up 40 yuan/ton, and third - tier up 30 yuan/ton [2] - Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade imposed anti - dumping duties ranging from 23.10% to 27.83% on hot - rolled coils of steel originating from China, effective from July 6 [2] Group 2 - Key sectors to focus on: urea, crude oil, PVC [4] - Night - time performance of commodity futures: non - metallic building materials up 2.85%, precious metals up 27.66%, oilseeds up 12.45%, coal, coke, steel and ore up 14.57%, energy up 3.06%, chemicals up 12.72%, grains up 1.23%, agricultural and sideline products up 2.86%, non - ferrous metals up 19.64%, soft commodities up 2.95% [4][5] Group 3 - Performance of major asset classes: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.01%, a monthly increase of 1.91%, and an annual increase of 4.73%; the SSE 50 decreased by 0.01%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.12%, and the CSI 500 increased by 0.74% [7] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.02%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.01%, and the 2 - year decreased by 0.00% [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index increased by 1.05%, WTI crude oil increased by 3.15%, London spot gold increased by 0.95%, and LME copper decreased by 0.39% [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the formation of a new political party by Elon Musk, named the "American Party," which aims to represent 80% of middle voters in the U.S. and seeks to gain a seat in Congress [3][4] - Trump criticized Musk's decision to form a third party, stating that it is unlikely to succeed in the U.S. political landscape, which has been dominated by two parties for over 160 years [4][3] - The White House has chosen not to comment on Musk's announcement regarding the "American Party," reflecting a lack of engagement with the new political movement [4][5] Group 2 - Trump expressed disappointment over Musk's recent actions, suggesting that Musk has "completely derailed" in the past five weeks [4][3] - The article highlights the ongoing tension between Musk and the Trump administration, particularly regarding the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which Musk opposes [3][4] - Mainstream media generally believe that Musk's new party will not significantly impact the existing two-party system, although some speculate that his strategy could influence congressional outcomes [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for safe-haven assets is expected to support gold prices, which have already seen a significant increase in the first half of 2025, marking the largest semi-annual gain since the second half of 2007 [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, the London spot gold price rose by 25.7%, the highest semi-annual increase since the second half of 2007 [1] - The international gold price is anticipated to remain in a fluctuating upward channel in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Demand Factors - Continued market demand for safe-haven assets is expected to provide long-term support for gold prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - Global central banks show a strong willingness to allocate gold, driven by increasing credit risks associated with the US dollar [1] Group 3: Strategic Asset Allocation - Central banks are likely to enhance their gold reserves due to strategic security and asset allocation needs [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a sudden increase, with London spot gold rising over 1% to nearly $3340 per ounce and COMEX gold futures up 1.3% to above $3350 per ounce as of July 1 [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, gold prices surged significantly, with London spot gold increasing by 25.84%, marking the best half-year performance in nearly 18 years [4] - The highest recorded price for spot gold was over $3500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 30% [4] Group 2 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets saw a boom in the gold and jewelry sector, with all 14 commodity gold ETFs in the A-share market rising over 23% [6] - Notable stock performances included companies like潮宏基 and 莱绅通灵, which saw their stock prices double, while others like 老铺黄金 experienced a staggering increase of 321.53% [6] Group 3 - A case study of a 75-year-old woman from Hangzhou illustrates the risks of gold investment, as she purchased gold bars at a high price only to face a decline in value shortly after [7][9] - Despite recent fluctuations, experts believe the long-term upward trend for gold prices remains intact, with potential targets reaching $3700 per ounce [10] - Factors influencing gold prices include trade negotiations, geopolitical tensions, and economic data affecting Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [10][11]