北京时间11月18日，国际金银价格开盘后跳水。伦敦现货黄金盘中失守4030美元/盎司；伦敦现货白银跌破50美元/盎 司重要关口。 | < W | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 4036.340 | | 昨年 | 4045.330 | 总量 | | | 0 | | -8.990 | -0.22% | 升营 | 4045.330 | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4055.320 | 持 仓 | 0 | や 물 | | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4028.350 | 智 世 | 0 | 물 内 | | | 0 | | 关时 | 五日 | 日K | 園K | 月K | | 电头 | (0 | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | | 4062.310 | | | | 0.42% | | 4036.640 | | | | | | | | | 4036.340 | | | | | | | | 7:50 | ...

| < W | | | 伦敦银现 | | | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | | 49.861 | 昨年 | | 50.180 | | 总量 | | | 0 | | -0.319 | | -0.64% 开盘 | 50.165 | | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | | 50.266 搏 仓 | | 0 | 外 盘 | | | 0 | | 最低价 | | 49.479 指 仓 | | 0 | 内 盘 | | | 0 | | 分时 | | 王日 日K | 圖K | | 月K | 由云 | | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | | 50.881 | | | | | 1.40% | 49.880 | | | | | | | | | | 49.861 | | | | | | | | | | 7:51 49.849 | | 0 | | | | | | | | 7:51 49.845 | | 0 | | 11 ...

北京时间11月18日，国际金银价格开盘后跳水。伦敦现货黄金盘中失守4030美元/盎司；伦敦现货白 银跌破50美元/盎司重要关口。 | W | | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | | 4036.340 | | 昨结 | | 4045.330 | 总量 | | | O | | -8.990 | -0.22% 十益 | | | 4045.330 | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4055.320 | 持 | 仓 | 0 | 外 盘 | | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4028.350 | 播 | 仓 | O | 内 盘 | | | 0 | | 关时 | 五日 | | 日K | 周K | 月K | | 由文 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | | 4062.310 | | | | | 0.42% | - 4036.640 | | | | | | | | | | दों 4036 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed performance on November 11, with precious metals experiencing strong gains, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics driven by geopolitical risks and economic factors [1] Group 1: Domestic Market Performance - As of the close at 15:00, silver rose over 3%, gold and rapeseed oil increased by more than 2%, while peanuts, lithium carbonate, and apples saw gains exceeding 1% [1] - In contrast, coking coal and coke fell over 3%, polysilicon dropped more than 2%, and other commodities like glass, live pigs, and urea declined by over 1% [1] Group 2: International Market Trends - On the same day, international gold and silver prices rebounded strongly, with London spot gold surpassing $4,100 per ounce and silver reclaiming $51 per ounce [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Guangfa Futures, the U.S. economy and job market are under pressure from government shutdowns and trade tensions, which may lead to an increased probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, alleviating liquidity constraints [1] - Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases are expected to drive a re-evaluation of asset pricing, increasing the allocation to financial commodities like precious metals in the medium to long term [1] - For silver, the combination of expectations for Federal Reserve easing and industrial demand factors may strengthen its price, despite relatively weak actual demand in the industrial sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - In October, London spot gold experienced volatility, ultimately rising by 3.76% to $4002.69 per ounce, with an intraday peak of $4381.484 per ounce, influenced by multiple factors including U.S. political instability and trade tensions with China [1] Group 1: Market Influences - The U.S. government shutdown highlighted political polarization, weakening the long-term credibility of the dollar and U.S. assets [1] - The ongoing government closure and negative economic forecasts strengthened market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The announcement of a 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports by the U.S. President escalated trade tensions, increasing global economic uncertainty [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - A joint statement from Ukraine regarding the Russia-Ukraine war indicated a softening of positions among Ukraine and major European countries, contributing to a reduction in geopolitical tensions [1] - Progress in U.S.-China trade talks and a meeting between the two nations' leaders further alleviated market risk aversion [1] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile with no clear bullish factors for gold, potentially leading to a weak performance until the end of the year [2] - Investors are advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach or consider buying on dips from an asset allocation perspective [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold prices opened at $4000, dipped to around $3962, and then stabilized back at the $4000 mark, indicating a choppy trading environment [4] - The focus for the week includes non-farm employment data, which could influence market movements [4]

Core Viewpoint - In October, London spot gold experienced a volatile month, rising by 3.76% to $4002.69 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4381.484 per ounce, influenced by multiple factors including U.S. political instability and renewed trade tensions with China [1] Group 1: Market Influences - The U.S. government shutdown has highlighted political polarization, weakening the long-term credibility of the dollar and U.S. assets [1] - The ongoing government closure has led to negative economic and employment expectations, reinforcing market speculation on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The announcement of a 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports by the U.S. President has escalated trade tensions, increasing global economic uncertainty and systemic risks [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - A sudden joint statement from Ukraine regarding the Russia-Ukraine war indicated a softening stance from Ukraine and major European countries, which significantly eased geopolitical tensions and impacted gold prices [1] - Progress in U.S.-China trade talks and a meeting between the two countries' leaders further reduced market risk aversion [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is currently focused on the ongoing developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dampening December rate cut expectations, and the easing of U.S.-China relations [2] - The lack of clear bullish factors for gold suggests potential for continued volatility or a bearish trend, with investors advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach or consider buying on dips from an asset allocation perspective [2] Group 4: Tax Policy Impact - A recent announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation regarding gold tax policies indicates that investment gold can enjoy immediate VAT refunds, but resale will only allow for ordinary invoices, increasing the tax burden on physical gold investments [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a rebound in gold prices after a previous decline [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the expected interest rate cut, investors are buying gold at lower prices, which has supported a rise in international gold prices [1] - On the date of the announcement, gold prices increased by over 1%, surpassing the $4,000 per ounce mark [1] Group 2: Price Details - As of 29th September, the London spot gold price was reported at $4,019.58 per ounce, reflecting a 1.67% increase [1] - The December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange was reported at $4,033.80 per ounce, with a 1.28% increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to a combination of reduced geopolitical tensions and the market's adjustment to fully priced expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3][4][5] Market Trends - Gold prices fell below $3900 per ounce, with a daily drop exceeding 2%, while silver prices also weakened, reaching a low of $45.513 per ounce [1][3] - In the past six trading days, gold has closed lower on five occasions, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3] Influencing Factors - The easing of geopolitical risks in regions such as the Middle East and Ukraine has increased market risk appetite, contributing to the decline in gold prices [3][4] - The market's sensitivity to Federal Reserve monetary policy signals has heightened, with the consensus on interest rate cuts leading to profit-taking among investors [4][5] Profit-Taking Behavior - The significant rise in gold prices since September, approximately 29% (around $1000), has led to a situation where many investors are cashing out their profits [4][5] - The speculative profit-taking sentiment has spread to a broader investor base, prompting many to exit positions at high points [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold will continue to experience a weak and volatile trend in the short term as the market digests negative factors and profit-taking sentiments [5] - The long-term support for gold prices remains intact, driven by factors such as central bank gold purchases, the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, and the need for hedging against uncertainties [6][7][8] Central Bank Behavior - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with a rise in the proportion of banks planning to add gold from 29% to 43% year-on-year [6] - The value of global central bank gold reserves has surpassed that of U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1970, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [7] Gold-Silver Ratio - The gold-silver ratio has increased from a low of 78 to around 85, suggesting that silver is currently underperforming relative to gold [9][10] - Historical averages indicate that the gold-silver ratio typically ranges between 65 and 75, implying potential for further adjustment [9] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to remain cautious and observe market conditions before making new investments, particularly in gold and silver [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have recently fallen below key psychological and technical support levels, indicating a shift in market sentiment and potential selling pressure from investors [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of October 28, international gold prices dropped to $3901.3 per ounce on COMEX, with a maximum decline of 2.95%, while London spot gold fell to $3886.199 per ounce, with a maximum decline of 2.4% [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also seen significant reductions, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang lowering their prices to 1198 RMB per gram and 1199 RMB per gram, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 25 RMB and 24 RMB per gram from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: easing trade tensions among major economies, increased technical selling due to profit-taking after a rapid price increase, and the market's full digestion of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations [1][2]. - The breach of the $4000 mark is seen as a critical psychological threshold that could trigger algorithmic selling, further exacerbating the downward trend and affecting investor confidence [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite the current downward pressure on gold prices, the situation differs from historical long-term bear markets, as factors such as a potentially weaker dollar, ongoing global liquidity expansion, central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations may support gold prices in the long run [4]. - After the short-term pressure is released, there is potential for gold prices to stabilize and consolidate [4].

Core Viewpoint - On October 28, the spot gold price in London experienced a significant decline, dropping by 2% and falling below the $3900 per ounce mark, with an intraday low of $3893.465 per ounce [1] Group 1 - The spot gold price fell to a low of $3893.465 per ounce during the trading session [1] - The decline in gold price represents a 2% decrease from previous levels [1]