证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 9 日 湘财证券研究所 宏观研究 宏观数据点评 积极看多金价 相关研究： 1. 《制造业和非制造业景气度 均有所回落》 2025.02.05 2. 《关税致外需景气度下滑明 显》 2025.05.06 分析师：何超 证书编号： S0500521070002 Tel：021-50295325 Email： hechao@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 事件 截至 2025 年 10 月 8 日，COMEX 黄金期货收盘价报收 4030 美元/盎 司。 ❑ 推动金价上涨的三重因素 ❑ 投资建议 当前，伴随美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点，黄金进一步上涨的空间也被打 开。建议长期投资者可将黄金作为资产配置的一部分，以对冲风险、 实现多元化配置为目的。短期投资者仍需密切关注美国相关经济数据 和美联储的表态上的边际变化，警惕金价在连续上涨后的技术性回调 风险，也可考虑在金价回调至 3500 美元附近的关键支撑位再行布局。 ❑ 风险提示 美元超预期走强；地缘冲突加剧；美国就业数据好于预期。 宏观研究 第一，市场避险需求。当前 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have recently reached a historic high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by increased global demand for safe-haven assets and declining confidence in the U.S. dollar [1][2]. Group 1: International Gold Price Trends - On October 7, the most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 reached a peak of $4,014.60 per ounce, marking a significant increase of approximately 50% year-to-date, making gold one of the best-performing major assets globally [1]. - Analysts suggest that the prevailing "fear of missing out" sentiment among investors is stronger than profit-taking, contributing to the continued upward pressure on gold prices despite being overbought [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Surge - The rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including U.S. government shutdowns, political instability in France, economic concerns in Japan, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, all of which have heightened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The weakening U.S. dollar and increased fiscal uncertainty in the U.S. have significantly enhanced gold's appeal as a hedge against risk [3]. - Recent monetary policy actions by the Federal Reserve, including potential interest rate cuts, have diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, further supporting gold prices [4]. - Central banks globally have resumed large-scale purchases of gold, with a reported net increase of 15 tons in August, and significant inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have risen by 17% year-to-date [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Looking ahead, if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and geopolitical tensions persist, gold prices may continue to rise. However, some analysts caution that the market may need to prepare for short-term corrections [5]. - Several investment banks predict that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,800 and $4,100 per ounce for the remainder of the year, with some suggesting a potential pullback to as low as $3,525 [5]. - Long-term forecasts remain bullish, with UBS projecting gold could reach $4,200, and Citigroup suggesting a challenge to the $5,000 mark if the Fed continues to cut rates into 2026 [5][6].

黄金虽已超买 但仍有足够买盘 国际金价日前再创新高，突破每盎司4000美元历史关口，引发市场广泛关注。国际金价为何大幅飙升？ 面对诸多不确定因素，金价涨势能否持续？ 国家外汇管理局10月7日发布的数据显示，9月末我国黄金储备为7406万盎司，环比增加4万盎司，为我 国央行连续第11个月增持黄金。 多重因素推动 国际金价飙涨 黄金是典型的避险资产。美国政府"停摆"、法国政局动荡、美日等国的经济隐忧以及持续的地缘冲突等 多重因素叠加，共同推动了市场对黄金的避险需求。 首先，美元疲软与美国财政不确定性显著提升了黄金的避险吸引力。由于美国联邦政府持续"停摆"，关 键经济数据发布延迟，令市场对经济前景的判断缺乏清晰指引。为防范风险，投资者选择持续增持黄 金。 其次，美联储近期降息并暗示年内仍可能延续宽松货币政策，令美元资产吸引力下降。实际利率下行与 流动性预期改善共同支撑金价攀升。 10月7日，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价突破每盎司4000美元，一度 创下每盎司4014.60美元的历史新高。10月8日，COMEX黄金期货价格最高触及4072美元/盎司，截至北 京时间8日10时许，COM ...

金价连创新高，反映出全球避险需求上升和美元信用度下降的双重信号。 桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧7日在美国康涅狄格州格林尼治经济论坛上表示，投资者应将"约15%的资产 配置在黄金中"。他认为，债务工具"已不再是有效的财富储藏手段"，黄金则是"当投资组合其他部分下 跌时表现最佳的资产"。 高盛集团6日发布的最新报告将2026年12月黄金价格预期从每盎司4300美元上调至4900美元，理由是"央 行增持与私人部门分散化需求强劲"。报告预测，未来两年各国央行年度购金量将分别达80吨和70吨， 其中新兴市场央行将继续增加黄金在储备资产中的比重，以降低对美元的依赖。 国际金价为何飙涨 黄金是典型的避险资产。美国政府"停摆"、法国政局动荡、美日等国的经济隐忧以及持续的地缘冲突等 多重因素叠加，共同推动了市场对黄金的避险需求。 国际金价日前再创新高，突破每盎司4000美元历史关口，引发市场广泛关注。黄金究竟表现如何？国际 金价为何大幅飙升？面对诸多不确定因素，金价涨势能否持续？ 国际金价走势如何 7日，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价突破每盎司4000美元，一度创下 每盎司4014.60美元的历史新 ...

国际金价日前再创新高，突破每盎司4000美元历史关口，引发市场广泛关注。黄金究竟表现如何？国际 金价为何大幅飙升？面对诸多不确定因素，金价涨势能否持续？ 国际金价走势如何 黄金是典型的避险资产。美国政府"停摆"、法国政局动荡、美日等国的经济隐忧以及持续的地缘冲突等 多重因素叠加，共同推动了市场对黄金的避险需求。 首先，美元疲软与美国财政不确定性显著提升了黄金的避险吸引力。由于美国联邦政府持续"停摆"，关 键经济数据发布延迟，令市场对经济前景的判断缺乏清晰指引。为防范风险，投资者选择持续增持黄 金。 其次，美联储近期降息并暗示年内仍可能延续宽松货币政策，令美元资产吸引力下降。实际利率下行与 流动性预期改善共同支撑金价攀升。 第三，全球央行持续购入黄金及黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金流入也成为推动金价创新高的重要 力量。世界黄金协会报告显示，8月各国央行恢复大规模购入黄金，当月净增持15吨黄金储备。强劲需 求推动9月黄金ETF持仓量增加360万盎司，年初至今上涨17%，达到9720万盎司，为2022年9月以来最 高水平。 此外，当前日本经济面临财政和货币政策两难、经济增长乏力、国际竞争力不足以及美国加征关税等 ...

今年以来，国际金价已累计上涨约50%，黄金成为全球表现最亮眼的主要资产之一。分析人士认为，黄 金市场"害怕错过"情绪比获利回吐情绪更为强烈，导致黄金虽然已经超买，但仍有足够买盘推高价格。 金价连创新高，反映出全球避险需求上升和美元信用度下降的双重信号。 桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧7日在美国康涅狄格州格林尼治经济论坛上表示，投资者应将"约15%的资产 配置在黄金中"。他认为，债务工具"已不再是有效的财富储藏手段"，黄金则是"当投资组合其他部分下 跌时表现最佳的资产"。 高盛集团6日发布的最新报告将2026年12月黄金价格预期从每盎司4300美元上调至4900美元，理由是"央 行增持与私人部门分散化需求强劲"。报告预测，未来两年各国央行年度购金量将分别达80吨和70吨， 其中新兴市场央行将继续增加黄金在储备资产中的比重，以降低对美元的依赖。 国际金价为何飙涨 黄金是典型的避险资产。美国政府"停摆"、法国政局动荡、美日等国的经济隐忧以及持续的地缘冲突等 多重因素叠加，共同推动了市场对黄金的避险需求。 新华社纽约10月8日电 经济热点问答｜国际金价缘何再创历史新高 新华社记者徐兴堂 徐静 国际金价日前再创新高，突破每盎 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have recently reached a historic high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by increased global demand for safe-haven assets and declining confidence in the U.S. dollar [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On October 7, the most actively traded December 2025 gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange hit a record high of $4,014.60 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of approximately 50% this year [1]. - The strong performance of gold is attributed to a prevailing "fear of missing out" sentiment among investors, which outweighs profit-taking emotions, leading to sustained buying pressure despite overbought conditions [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The combination of U.S. government shutdown, political instability in France, economic concerns in Japan, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts has significantly boosted the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and increased fiscal uncertainty in the U.S. have enhanced gold's appeal, as investors seek to mitigate risks by increasing their gold holdings [3]. - Recent monetary policy actions by the Federal Reserve, including potential interest rate cuts, have diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, further supporting gold prices [3]. - Central banks globally have resumed large-scale gold purchases, with a reported net increase of 15 tons in August, and significant inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have risen by 17% year-to-date [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Looking ahead, if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and geopolitical tensions persist, gold prices may continue to rise [4]. - However, some analysts caution that the market should be wary of potential short-term corrections, with expectations that gold prices may fluctuate between $3,800 and $4,100 per ounce for the remainder of the year [4]. - Despite the potential for short-term adjustments, long-term forecasts remain bullish, with predictions of gold reaching $4,200 per ounce from UBS and possibly challenging $5,000 if the Fed maintains a dovish stance through 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund has shown a slight decline recently, but overall, it has experienced a weekly increase, reflecting heightened market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Market Performance - As of September 24, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) decreased by 0.11%, with a latest price of 8.12 yuan. However, it has risen by 1.44% over the past week [1]. - The liquidity of the gold ETF fund is notable, with an intraday turnover of 0.57% and a transaction volume of 169 million yuan. The average daily transaction over the past week was 1.174 billion yuan, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [1]. Economic Indicators - Gold prices reached a historical high for the third consecutive day, with spot gold touching $3,791.10 per ounce, driven by increasing market risk aversion [1]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and a slight rise in unemployment, with inflation remaining above the 2% target. The Fed recently lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% [1]. Institutional Insights - Short-term catalysts for gold demand include ambiguous Fed policy expectations and ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, which are expected to sustain the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - In the medium to long term, the increase in gold reserves by central banks globally, the potential restructuring of the U.S. dollar credit system, and the downward trend in real interest rates are expected to provide solid support for gold prices [3]. Related Products - The gold ETF fund (159937) and its associated products, such as the BoShi Gold ETF Connect funds, closely track the Shanghai Gold Exchange spot contracts (Au9999), offering convenient trading options and low fees suitable for both short-term trading and long-term asset allocation [4]. - Recent data indicates a continued influx of leveraged funds into the gold ETF, with a net financing amount of 10.6586 million yuan on the previous trading day and a latest financing balance of 3.569 billion yuan [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, on gold prices, with historical data showing a tendency for gold prices to rise during military confrontations in the Middle East [1][3] - Central banks have been on a gold purchasing spree, with annual purchases exceeding 1000 tons for three consecutive years, and a notable increase in purchases in late 2024 and early 2025, indicating sustained demand for gold as a reserve asset [1][2] - The shift in global reserve assets is evident, with gold surpassing the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, now accounting for 21% of total reserves, while the dollar's share has decreased from 72% in 2000 to 58% [2] Group 2 - Three potential scenarios for future gold price movements are outlined: a possible price correction if the Iran conflict does not escalate, a significant price increase if the U.S. engages in direct conflict with Iran, and a sustained demand for gold if there is a large-scale sell-off in the U.S. bond market [3][4] - The ongoing bull market for gold in the first half of 2025 is driven by trade tensions and the continued trend of central banks purchasing gold, alongside a global shift away from the dollar, positioning gold as a key strategic asset in a multipolar world [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced significant volatility from April 16 to May 13, 2025, driven by geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and the evolution of the China-U.S. tariff conflict [1][2] - In the first phase (April 16-22), gold prices surged due to heightened risk aversion, with London spot gold breaking through $3,274 per ounce [2][3] - The second phase (April 23-May 6) saw gold prices fluctuate between $3,200 and $3,500 per ounce, influenced by liquidity tightening and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [4][5] - In the third phase (May 7-13), a joint statement from China and the U.S. to suspend 24% of mutual tariffs led to a sharp decline in gold prices, dropping nearly $50 to $3,218 per ounce [5][6] Group 2: Trade and Economic Implications - The suspension of tariffs is expected to boost market sentiment, with potential short-term rebounds in global stock markets, particularly in U.S. technology stocks and export-oriented companies [6][7] - China's trade with the U.S. showed short-term pressure but long-term resilience, with high-tech product exports increasing by 6.4% year-on-year [7][8] - The tariff suspension may lead to a recovery in exports of machinery and electrical products, while low-value goods like steel imports will continue to be suppressed [8][9] - The trade dynamics indicate a shift towards transshipment trade and adjustments in industrial chains, with companies potentially relocating production to Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs [9][10] Group 3: Sectoral Analysis - The technology and high-end manufacturing sectors are expected to benefit from valuation recovery and demand release, while traditional manufacturing faces cost pressures and weak demand [9][10] - Long-term impacts include increased domestic counter-cyclical adjustments, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector in Q1 2025 [10][11] - The push for domestic autonomy in supply chains is accelerating, particularly in semiconductor equipment and industrial software, driven by the tariff conflict [11][12] Group 4: Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for China from mid-April to early May 2025 appears stable, although the tariff conflict continues to exert significant influence on imports and exports [12][13] - The social financing scale is projected to be between 1.47 trillion and 1.48 trillion yuan in April, supported mainly by government bond net financing and corporate bond financing [13][14] - The real estate market shows a divergence in investment and sales, with a 9.9% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment in Q1 2025, while transaction volumes in major cities increased by 14.7% in April [14][21]