1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal 2601 contract delivery volume reached 414,000 tons, with delivery areas mainly concentrated in warehouses in Jingtang Port and Caofeidian, as well as factories in Shanxi and Hebei. The sellers were mainly spot-futures traders and coal washing plants, and the delivery resources were mainly Mongolian coal. The delivery settlement prices were scattered, with both premium and discount delivery, and most enterprises made profits. The large amount of delivery resources did not put downward pressure on the market, and the 2605 contract delivery risk is relatively limited [5]. - The coke 2601 contract delivery volume was only 40,000 tons, with delivery areas mainly concentrated in Qingdao Port, Rizhao Port, Caofeidian, Tianjin Port, and factories in Hebei. The sellers were mainly traders and coking plants, and the delivery resources were mainly wet-quenched coke. The delivery settlement prices were relatively concentrated, mostly with discount delivery, and the delivery profit narrowed significantly after entering the delivery month. The final delivery volume was limited, having no negative impact on the market, and the 2605 contract delivery risk is basically controllable [5]. - The strategy is to operate in a range and pay attention to the price correction risk after the "Two Sessions" [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Jiao Coal 2601 Contract Delivery Summary 3.1.1 Jiao Coal Delivery Quantity and Region - The delivery volume of coking coal reached 414,000 tons, with delivery areas mainly in warehouses in Jingtang Port and Caofeidian, and factories in Shanxi and Hebei. The concentration was more dispersed compared to previous deliveries [15]. 3.1.2 Jiao Coal Delivery Characteristics and Price - Sellers were mainly spot-futures traders and coal washing plants, with rolling delivery dominant. Delivery resources were mainly Mongolian coal, and most resources got high premium rewards. Buyers were mainly spot-futures traders, and their willingness to take delivery was relatively strong. The delivery settlement prices were scattered, with an average of 1,105.7 yuan/ton, a median of 1,103.5 yuan/ton, and a high-low price difference of 108 yuan/ton. The delivery profit was relatively sufficient [16][17]. 3.1.3 Jiao Coal Delivery Process and Profit - In October, as the market price rose, the basis weakened, and some spot-futures traders hedged on the market. After the price further fell, some took profits. In early December, the price dropped again, and spot-futures traders re-entered the market. Near the delivery month, the basis converged, and there were premium delivery opportunities, resulting in a large delivery volume [20]. 3.1.4 Jiao Coal Delivery Summary and Outlook - The large amount of delivery resources did not put downward pressure on the market. As the reality and expectations improved, the delivery cost of inferior warehouse receipts increased, and the delivery cost-performance was insufficient. Spot-futures traders sold the received goods in the far - month market, having limited impact on the spot market. The 2605 contract still follows the old rules, but considering the improved supply - demand and better market expectations compared to last year, the delivery risk is relatively limited [23]. 3.2 Coke 2601 Contract Delivery Summary 3.2.1 Coke Delivery Quantity and Region - The coke delivery volume was only 40,000 tons, with delivery areas mainly in Qingdao Port, Rizhao Port, Caofeidian, Tianjin Port, and factories in Hebei, and the delivery concentration was acceptable [26]. 3.2.2 Coke Delivery Characteristics and Price - Sellers were mainly traders and coking plants, with rolling delivery dominant. Delivery resources were mainly wet - quenched coke. Buyers were mainly traders, and their willingness to take delivery was strong due to the increasing discount of the market price in the delivery month. The delivery settlement prices were relatively concentrated, with an average of 1,454.3 yuan/ton, a median of 1,445.5 yuan/ton, and a high - low price difference of 62 yuan/ton, mostly with discount delivery. The delivery profit was high before the delivery month but narrowed significantly after entering the delivery month [27]. 3.2.3 Coke Delivery Process and Profit - In mid - September, as the basis weakened, many spot - futures traders participated in hedging. By mid - October, the basis strengthened again, and the expectation of spot price increase was strong, so some traders exited. Near the delivery month, as the market price discount increased and the spot price reduction was coming to an end, the willingness of short - hedging decreased, and some traders shifted their positions to the far - month market, resulting in a relatively small delivery volume [30]. 3.2.4 Coke Delivery Summary and Outlook - During the delivery period, the macro - expectation and the spot market showed a positive trend, and there were obvious monthly spread arbitrage opportunities for short - sellers. The limited delivery volume had no negative impact on the market, and the pressure for spot price increase in the later period was small. In the long - term, wet - quenched coke has a relatively stronger delivery cost - performance advantage. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of coke is insufficient, and the deliverable resources are limited. The delivery risk of the 2605 contract is basically controllable [35]. 3.3 Summary - The coking coal delivery volume was 414,000 tons, with delivery areas mainly in Jingtang Port, Caofeidian, and factories in Shanxi and Hebei. Sellers were mainly spot - futures traders and coal washing plants, and the delivery resources were mainly Mongolian coal. The delivery settlement prices were scattered, and most enterprises made profits. The large delivery volume did not put downward pressure on the market, and the 2605 contract delivery risk is relatively limited [36]. - The coke delivery volume was 40,000 tons, with delivery areas mainly in Qingdao Port, Rizhao Port, Caofeidian, Tianjin Port, and factories in Hebei. Sellers were mainly traders and coking plants, and the delivery resources were mainly wet - quenched coke. The delivery settlement prices were relatively concentrated, mostly with discount delivery, and the delivery profit narrowed significantly after entering the delivery month. The limited delivery volume had no negative impact on the market, and the 2605 contract delivery risk is basically controllable [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the previous judgment that coking coal and coke should not be short - allocated among the black series. Although the market participants' expectations for the future have gradually improved and the willingness to hold goods has increased compared to the first half of the year, the high total supply pressure of steel and high inventory need time to digest, which will suppress the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices. A substantial favorable policy or an unexpected decline in coal mine开工率 is required to break through the previous high. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - allocation variety in the black series. The coke futures price is at a premium of 1 - 2 rounds compared to the dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt, and the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities under low basis, while arbitrageurs can focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal and coke [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range forecast is 1200 - 1350, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 44.01%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 84.70% [3]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range forecast is 1650 - 1850, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 33.04%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 71.11% [3]. 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Hedging for Coke**: When coke production recovers rapidly, the spot supply and demand tend to be loose, and coke enterprises are worried about the decline in future sales prices, they can short the J2601 contract of coke. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1780, 1830), 50% at (1830 - 1880), and 25% at (1200, 1250) [3]. - **Procurement Management for Coking Coal**: Due to the repeated macro - sentiment, the seasonal low开工率 of coking coal mines, and factors such as over - production inspection and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter disturbing the coking coal supply, coking plants worried about future raw material price increases can long the JM2605 contract of coking coal. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1150, 1200) and 50% at (1200, 1250) [3]. 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Inventory Changes**: On September 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the inventory of rebar increased by 6931 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 7721 tons, iron ore remained unchanged, coking coal decreased by 100 hands, coke remained unchanged, ferrosilicon decreased by 129 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 320 pieces. Compared with the previous week, the inventory of rebar increased by 9904 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 22213 tons, iron ore decreased by 200 hands, coking coal decreased by 400 hands, coke increased by 30 hands, ferrosilicon increased by 1163 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 764 pieces [4]. 3.4 Analysis of Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Downstream seasonal restocking before the National Day has alleviated the inventory pressure of coking coal mines, and the pithead has a strong price - support sentiment. The difficulty of the third - round price cut for coke has increased, and some coke enterprises have attempted to raise prices. After the second - round price cut was implemented, the spot profit of steel improved, and the high pig iron output provided rigid support for the short - term demand of coking coal and coke. "Anti - cut - throat competition" is the focus of market trading in the second half of the year, and the macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the trend of coking coal and coke futures. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year, which supports the overall valuation of commodities [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The social inventory pressure of finished steel products is still large, and the demand in the peak season is lower than expected, which limits the rebound space of coking coal and coke. The average daily customs clearance at the port this week exceeded 1250 vehicles, and the coal shipment volume remained at a high level, resulting in a strong supply of imported coal [7]. 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The report provides detailed data on the coking coal and coke futures prices, including the cost of warehouse receipts, basis, inter - month spreads, coking profit, and various ratios (such as the ratio of coking coal to power coal, the ratio of iron ore to coke, etc.) on September 19, 2025, as well as their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The report presents the spot prices of coking coal and coke on September 19, 2025, including the ex - factory prices of domestic coking coal, the self - pick - up prices at ports, the CFR prices of imported coking coal, the ex - factory prices and export prices of coke, and the corresponding profit data (such as coking profit, import profit of coking coal, and export profit of coke), along with their daily and weekly changes [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market has support from over - production inspection expectations at the bottom and is restricted by the demand for finished products at the top. In the short term, the futures market may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. Before the terminal demand in the peak season is verified, it is not recommended to short coking coal for unilateral speculation, and the market should be treated with an oscillation mindset. Coke may face downward price pressure later, and the industry can consider participating in selling hedging according to the situation [4]. - The market has gradually shifted the focus of the game to the demand performance of downstream finished products. The poor demand for finished products in the past two weeks and the decline in high - frequency data have raised concerns about peak - season demand, which will also limit the upside potential of coking coal and coke [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price forecast for coking coal is in the range of 1060 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the price range is 1600 - 1800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: For inventory hedging, when seven rounds of coke price increases have been fully implemented and the possibility of further increases is low, coke producers worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract of coke at an entry range of (1750, 1800) [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Positive Factors**: There are still expectations of "anti - involution" in coal mines, and the production increase space for mines in the second half of the year may be limited. Safety accidents in some mines may trigger concerns about strict safety supervision. There is room for policy expectation games before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The apparent demand for rebar is poor, and there is pressure on the actual end of finished products. After seven rounds of coke price increases, steel mills' profits have shrunk, and they are resistant to the eighth round of price increases [4][7]. 3.3 Market Data - **Black Warehouse Receipt Data**: On August 27, 2025, compared with the previous day, the warehouse receipts of rebar increased by 23021 tons, hot - rolled coils decreased by 1499 tons, coking coal decreased by 800 hands, etc. [3]. - **Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices**: The report provides detailed data on the futures and spot prices of coking coal and coke on August 27, 2025, including basis, cost, and price changes compared with previous days and weeks [7][8]. - **Import and Export Profits**: It shows the import and export profits of coking coal and coke, such as the import profit of Mongolian coal (long - term contract) being 333 yuan/ton, and the export profit of coke being 351 yuan/ton [9].