热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 焦炭方面：震荡 作者： 邢亚文 市场分析 截止上周五收盘，焦炭2605合约收于1683元/吨，焦煤2605合约收于1130.5元/吨。 供给方面：本周Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率为72.20%，增0.34%；焦炭日均产量63.14万 吨，增0.3万吨； 需求方面：Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率79.53%，环比上周增加0.53个百分点，同比去年增加1.55 个百分点 ；高炉炼铁产能利用率85.69%，环比上周增加0.22个百分点 ，同比去年减少0.07个百分点； 钢厂盈利率39.39%，环比上周维持不变，同比去年减少12.13个百分点；日均铁水产量 228.58万吨，环 比上周增加0.60万吨，同比去年增加0.14万吨。 库存方面：根据Mysteel调研数据，本期247家钢厂焦炭库存为693.74万吨，环比增加15.55万吨。247家 钢厂焦煤库存为835.32万吨，环比增加15.54万吨。独立焦企全样本焦煤总库存为1291.87万吨，环比增 加57.08万吨。 综合来看：焦炭方面，因需求改善与供应受限 ...

期货研究报告|黑色专题 2026-02-06 双焦 2601 合约交割总结报告 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 xingyawen@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03054449 投资咨询号：Z0016137 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguolaing@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 邢亚文 焦煤 2601 合约交割规模创出历史最高水平，究其原因在于一方面是临近交割月盘面大 幅下跌，给予卖方较好的参与机会；另一方面是现货销售不佳，导致卖方参与交割意 愿较强。焦炭 2601 合约交割规模有限，主要原因在于月差结构有利于卖方转抛远月， 导致实际交割量相对不足。考虑到后期基本面和宏观预期并未出现明显转弱趋势，因 此焦煤和焦炭远月交割风险相对有限。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 本次焦煤交割量达到 41.4 万吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of coking coal options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and provides strategies for trading these options based on supply and demand analysis leading up to the Chinese New Year [5][7]. Supply Analysis - The high volume of imported Mongolian coal continues to suppress coking coal prices, with daily customs clearance averaging 1,204 trucks per day since the New Year, despite a slight decrease compared to late 2025 [5]. - Recent data indicates that the daily customs clearance has exceeded 1,500 trucks, which contributes to a significant supply buffer for coking coal prices [5]. - Domestic coal mines have shown a slower-than-expected recovery post-New Year, warranting further observation for potential increases in domestic coal supply [5]. Demand Analysis - Current iron and steel production may have reached a temporary low, with winter stockpiling expected to support coking coal demand before the New Year [5]. - However, indications of a warmer winter suggest limited space for further stockpiling, which may hinder the formation of a sustained upward trend in demand [5]. Price and Trading Strategy - The recent price of the coking coal 2605 contract peaked at 1,246 RMB/ton, showing a slight premium over the cost of Mongolian raw coal, indicating potential for arbitrage [7]. - Given the current market conditions, the recommendation is to consider short-selling shallow out-of-the-money call options for the coking coal 2605 contract, particularly around the 1,240 RMB/ton mark [7]. - If coking coal prices break upward, it may be driven by further policy actions, suggesting a hedging strategy using out-of-the-money call options for the 2605 or 2609 contracts [8].

Core Viewpoint - The market for coking coal and coke is experiencing fluctuations primarily due to capacity reduction policies, with prices showing a trend of oscillation and upward movement [2][7]. Supply Analysis - The average daily production of coke from independent coking enterprises is 635,700 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.69%, up by 0.97% from the previous week [2][7]. - The average daily production of premium coal from 523 sample mines is 734,300 tons, which is an increase of 44,200 tons week-on-week [2][7]. Demand Analysis - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills is 79.31%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points week-on-week and up 2.13 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The capacity utilization rate for ironmaking is 86.04%, which is an increase of 0.78 percentage points week-on-week and up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The profit margin for steel mills is 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points week-on-week and down 12.99 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The average daily pig iron output is 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons week-on-week and up 51,300 tons year-on-year [2][7]. Inventory Analysis - The coke inventory in 247 steel mills is 6.4573 million tons, an increase of 17,400 tons week-on-week [8]. - The coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills is 7.9773 million tons, a decrease of 55,400 tons week-on-week [8]. - The total coking coal inventory for independent coking enterprises is 10.7168 million tons, an increase of 191,800 tons week-on-week [8]. Supply and Demand Logic - The supply-demand contradiction for coke is currently limited, with a slight improvement in demand due to the resumption of production in steel mills, although speculative demand remains insufficient [8]. - The demand for coking coal is expected to improve further due to the resumption of production and inventory replenishment in steel mills before the Spring Festival, alongside a rebound in thermal coal prices [8]. - Recent policies from Yulin City and Inner Mongolia regarding coal production capacity reduction, along with Indonesia's decrease in annual coal production, have raised concerns about future coal supply contraction, providing support for coking coal prices [8]. Strategy - The outlook for coking coal is expected to remain oscillatory [9]. - The outlook for coke is also anticipated to remain oscillatory [9].

Core Viewpoint - The black commodity market has experienced significant price increases, driven by multiple factors including supply concerns and low valuation compared to other commodities [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - All black commodities saw substantial gains, with coking coal and coke contracts both rising by 7.98%, soda ash by 7.53%, glass by 6.1%, and iron ore by 4.09% [8]. - The recent surge in black commodities is attributed to a combination of supply adjustments and market sentiment [9]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - Yulin City plans to remove 26 coal mines from the supply guarantee list, reducing production capacity by 19 million tons. This raises concerns about a potential decline in coal supply as the Energy Bureau aims to classify unapproved mines as illegal by June 2025 [8]. - Since 2021, approximately 500 million tons of new coal production capacity has been added, with a significant portion lacking proper documentation, which could lead to a substantial reduction in coal supply if regulations are strictly enforced [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent price increases in black commodities follow a period where other commodities, particularly non-ferrous metals, have been rising, leading to a perceived undervaluation of black commodities [8]. - The influx of traders into the market due to rising prices has created short-term resource tightness, further driving up spot prices and supporting continued price increases in futures [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the previous judgment that coking coal and coke should not be short - allocated among the black series. Although the market participants' expectations for the future have gradually improved and the willingness to hold goods has increased compared to the first half of the year, the high total supply pressure of steel and high inventory need time to digest, which will suppress the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices. A substantial favorable policy or an unexpected decline in coal mine开工率 is required to break through the previous high. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - allocation variety in the black series. The coke futures price is at a premium of 1 - 2 rounds compared to the dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt, and the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities under low basis, while arbitrageurs can focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal and coke [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range forecast is 1200 - 1350, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 44.01%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 84.70% [3]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range forecast is 1650 - 1850, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 33.04%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 71.11% [3]. 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Hedging for Coke**: When coke production recovers rapidly, the spot supply and demand tend to be loose, and coke enterprises are worried about the decline in future sales prices, they can short the J2601 contract of coke. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1780, 1830), 50% at (1830 - 1880), and 25% at (1200, 1250) [3]. - **Procurement Management for Coking Coal**: Due to the repeated macro - sentiment, the seasonal low开工率 of coking coal mines, and factors such as over - production inspection and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter disturbing the coking coal supply, coking plants worried about future raw material price increases can long the JM2605 contract of coking coal. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1150, 1200) and 50% at (1200, 1250) [3]. 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Inventory Changes**: On September 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the inventory of rebar increased by 6931 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 7721 tons, iron ore remained unchanged, coking coal decreased by 100 hands, coke remained unchanged, ferrosilicon decreased by 129 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 320 pieces. Compared with the previous week, the inventory of rebar increased by 9904 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 22213 tons, iron ore decreased by 200 hands, coking coal decreased by 400 hands, coke increased by 30 hands, ferrosilicon increased by 1163 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 764 pieces [4]. 3.4 Analysis of Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Downstream seasonal restocking before the National Day has alleviated the inventory pressure of coking coal mines, and the pithead has a strong price - support sentiment. The difficulty of the third - round price cut for coke has increased, and some coke enterprises have attempted to raise prices. After the second - round price cut was implemented, the spot profit of steel improved, and the high pig iron output provided rigid support for the short - term demand of coking coal and coke. "Anti - cut - throat competition" is the focus of market trading in the second half of the year, and the macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the trend of coking coal and coke futures. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year, which supports the overall valuation of commodities [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The social inventory pressure of finished steel products is still large, and the demand in the peak season is lower than expected, which limits the rebound space of coking coal and coke. The average daily customs clearance at the port this week exceeded 1250 vehicles, and the coal shipment volume remained at a high level, resulting in a strong supply of imported coal [7]. 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The report provides detailed data on the coking coal and coke futures prices, including the cost of warehouse receipts, basis, inter - month spreads, coking profit, and various ratios (such as the ratio of coking coal to power coal, the ratio of iron ore to coke, etc.) on September 19, 2025, as well as their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The report presents the spot prices of coking coal and coke on September 19, 2025, including the ex - factory prices of domestic coking coal, the self - pick - up prices at ports, the CFR prices of imported coking coal, the ex - factory prices and export prices of coke, and the corresponding profit data (such as coking profit, import profit of coking coal, and export profit of coke), along with their daily and weekly changes [9][10].