供需与逻辑：目前焦炭供需矛盾有限，伴随钢厂复产，焦炭刚需有所改善，然而投机性需求依旧不足， 春节前钢厂补库有望进一步提振需求，短期焦炭震荡运行。焦煤供需同步回升，库存保持增长，然而基 本面矛盾相对可控，考虑到春节前钢厂复产和补库，焦煤需求有望继续改善，叠加动力煤价格止跌反 弹，短期焦煤维持震荡运行。近期榆林市和内蒙出台煤炭产能核减文件，同时印尼降低年度煤炭产量， 市场担忧未来煤炭供给收缩，焦煤底部存在支撑。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 邝志鹏 市场分析 期现货方面：截止上周五收盘，焦炭2605合约和焦煤2605合约环比上涨。本期价格波动主要受产能核减 政策影响，盘面呈现震荡上行态势，市场情绪波动明显。 供给方面：本周Mysteel统计独立焦企样本焦炭日均产量63.57万吨，环比增加0.85万吨，产能利用率 72.69%，较上周上涨0.97%。523家样本矿山精煤日均产量73.43万吨，环比增加4.42万吨。 需求方面：根据Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率79.31%，环比增加0.37个百分点，同比去年增加2.13 个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用 ...

昨日黑色商品全系大涨，其中焦煤2605合约涨幅达7.98%，焦炭2605合约涨幅达7.98%，纯碱2605合约 涨幅达7.53%，玻璃2605合约涨幅达6.1%，铁矿2605合约涨幅达4.09%。本轮黑色商品领涨，受到多重 因素影响。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 黑色建材组 相关品种：玻璃、焦煤、铁矿石、焦炭、纯碱 1、榆林市计划从保供名单调出26处煤矿，核减产能1900万吨。2025年6月份能源局已经提出将未完成核 增手续的煤矿转为非法产能予以退出，市场担忧本次榆林市清退核增产能可能开启核增产能退坡潮。自 2021年以来国内核增产能达5亿吨左右，其中手续不健全的煤矿可能有亿吨级别，如果后期严格执行将 形成煤炭供给较大减量。 2、过去一段时间以有色为代表的大宗商品轮番上涨，然而黑色商品受制于基本面疲态，始终未形成上 涨趋势，导致黑色商品估值较其他品种明显偏低，且短期黑色暂无明显利空，市场对于黑色存在补涨预 期。 3、伴随黑色盘面价格上涨，期现商大量入场，导致短期现货资源紧张，现货价格跟随上涨，进一步助 力盘面价格继续上行。 整体来看，黑色基本面并未 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the previous judgment that coking coal and coke should not be short - allocated among the black series. Although the market participants' expectations for the future have gradually improved and the willingness to hold goods has increased compared to the first half of the year, the high total supply pressure of steel and high inventory need time to digest, which will suppress the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices. A substantial favorable policy or an unexpected decline in coal mine开工率 is required to break through the previous high. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - allocation variety in the black series. The coke futures price is at a premium of 1 - 2 rounds compared to the dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt, and the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities under low basis, while arbitrageurs can focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal and coke [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range forecast is 1200 - 1350, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 44.01%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 84.70% [3]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range forecast is 1650 - 1850, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 33.04%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 71.11% [3]. 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Hedging for Coke**: When coke production recovers rapidly, the spot supply and demand tend to be loose, and coke enterprises are worried about the decline in future sales prices, they can short the J2601 contract of coke. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1780, 1830), 50% at (1830 - 1880), and 25% at (1200, 1250) [3]. - **Procurement Management for Coking Coal**: Due to the repeated macro - sentiment, the seasonal low开工率 of coking coal mines, and factors such as over - production inspection and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter disturbing the coking coal supply, coking plants worried about future raw material price increases can long the JM2605 contract of coking coal. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry interval of (1150, 1200) and 50% at (1200, 1250) [3]. 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Inventory Changes**: On September 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the inventory of rebar increased by 6931 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 7721 tons, iron ore remained unchanged, coking coal decreased by 100 hands, coke remained unchanged, ferrosilicon decreased by 129 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 320 pieces. Compared with the previous week, the inventory of rebar increased by 9904 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 22213 tons, iron ore decreased by 200 hands, coking coal decreased by 400 hands, coke increased by 30 hands, ferrosilicon increased by 1163 pieces, and ferromanganese decreased by 764 pieces [4]. 3.4 Analysis of Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Downstream seasonal restocking before the National Day has alleviated the inventory pressure of coking coal mines, and the pithead has a strong price - support sentiment. The difficulty of the third - round price cut for coke has increased, and some coke enterprises have attempted to raise prices. After the second - round price cut was implemented, the spot profit of steel improved, and the high pig iron output provided rigid support for the short - term demand of coking coal and coke. "Anti - cut - throat competition" is the focus of market trading in the second half of the year, and the macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the trend of coking coal and coke futures. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year, which supports the overall valuation of commodities [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The social inventory pressure of finished steel products is still large, and the demand in the peak season is lower than expected, which limits the rebound space of coking coal and coke. The average daily customs clearance at the port this week exceeded 1250 vehicles, and the coal shipment volume remained at a high level, resulting in a strong supply of imported coal [7]. 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The report provides detailed data on the coking coal and coke futures prices, including the cost of warehouse receipts, basis, inter - month spreads, coking profit, and various ratios (such as the ratio of coking coal to power coal, the ratio of iron ore to coke, etc.) on September 19, 2025, as well as their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The report presents the spot prices of coking coal and coke on September 19, 2025, including the ex - factory prices of domestic coking coal, the self - pick - up prices at ports, the CFR prices of imported coking coal, the ex - factory prices and export prices of coke, and the corresponding profit data (such as coking profit, import profit of coking coal, and export profit of coke), along with their daily and weekly changes [9][10].