证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 2025 年可再生能源电力消纳责任权重发布， 跨经营区常态化交易机制方案批复 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary ] ◼ 风险提示：需求不及预期、电价煤价波动风险、流域来水不及预期等 2025 年 07 月 17 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 任逸轩 执业证书：S0600522030002 renyx@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 2024/7/17 2024/11/15 2025/3/16 2025/7/15 公用事业 沪深300 相关研究 《重视 RWA 与虚拟电厂、电交易、碳 交易融合的产业链机会》 2025-07-16 《储库推进欧洲气价上升，高温天气 缓和美国气价回落，关注利润稳定的 高股息标的新奥股份》 2025-07-14 ◼ 本周核心观点：1） 2025 年可再生能源电力消纳责任权重发布。国家发 改委、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [4][22]. Core Insights - The construction of zero-carbon parks is being accelerated, with the release of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights expected by 2025 [1][17]. - The report highlights the increasing responsibility weights for renewable energy consumption across various provinces, with most provinces expected to exceed 20% by 2025 [17][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating renewable energy development with energy management systems to achieve carbon neutrality [22][23]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82%, while the public utility index increased by 1.11% and the environmental index by 3.17% [1][24]. - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power increased by 0.41%, hydropower by 0.42%, and renewable energy generation by 1.05% [1][25]. Important Policies and Events - The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and National Energy Administration issued a notice to accelerate the transformation of energy structures in parks and promote energy conservation and carbon reduction [15][16]. - Hainan Province's implementation plan for market-oriented reform of renewable energy grid prices includes a pricing structure for existing projects and competitive bidding for new projects [16] . Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major coal-fired power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][22]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power will maintain stable profitability [3][22]. - In the environmental sector, companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [23][22]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.62 in 2025 [8]. - Longyuan Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.75 in 2024 and 0.85 in 2025 [8]. - China Nuclear Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.50 in 2025 [8]. Industry Dynamics and Company Announcements - The report notes that the water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow [23]. - The report also highlights the potential for domestic waste oil recycling companies to benefit from the EU's SAF blending policy [23]. Industry Key Data Overview - In May, the industrial power generation increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a total of 737.8 billion kWh generated [49][60]. - The total electricity consumption in May reached 809.6 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.43% [57][60].

工业硅周报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 光伏去产能进行时，工业硅延续反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 一、市场数据 | 合约 | 7 月 11 日 | 7 月 4 日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力 | 8415.00 | 7980.00 | 435.00 | 5.45% | 元/吨 | | 通氧 553#现货 | 8850 ...

证券研究报告|行业周报 2025 年 07 月 14 日 电力及公用事业 行业周报（7.7-7.13）：可再生能源电力消纳责任权重发布，浙江、 海南出台 136 号文承接方案 | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 001289.SZ | 龙源电力 | 增持 | 0.79 | 0.9 | 21.06 | 18.49 | | 600674.SH | 川投能源 | 增持 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 15.35 | 14.27 | | 600795.SH | 国电电力 | 买入 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 11.26 | 9.65 | 资料来源：公司财报，长城证券产业金融研究院 板块市场表现： （1）行业估值：本周（2025.7.11）申万公用事业行业指数 PE（TTM） 为 17.43 倍，上周为 17.38 倍，2024 年同期为 18.94 倍；本周（2025.7.11） 申万公用事 ...

发改办能源〔2025〕669号 国家发展改革委办公厅 国家能源局综合司关于2025年可再生能源电力消纳责任权重及有关事项的 通知 各省、自治区、直辖市、新疆生产建设兵团发展改革委、能源局，天津市、辽宁省、上海市、山东 省、重庆市、甘肃省经信委（工信委、工信厅），国家能源局各派出机构，国家电网有限公司、中 国南方电网有限责任公司、内蒙古电力（集团）有限责任公司，电力规划设计总院、水电水利规划 设计总院： 为贯彻落实《中华人民共和国能源法》，助力实现碳达峰碳中和，推动可再生能源高质量发展，根 据可再生能源电力消纳保障机制有关安排，现将2025年、2026年可再生能源电力消纳责任权重和 重点用能行业绿色电力消费比例印发给你们，并就有关事项通知如下。 一、本次下达的2025年可再生能源电力消纳责任权重为约束性指标，按此对各省（自治区、直辖 市）进行考核评估；2026年权重为预期性指标，各省（自治区、直辖市）要按此做好项目储备， 并结合2025年消纳责任权重完成情况优化纳入新能源可持续发展价格结算机制的电量规模，结合 新能源消纳需求，同步加强调节能力规划建设等配套措施，进一步提高电力系统消纳和调控水平。 各省（自治区、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have announced that the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight for 2025 must be completed within that year and will not be transferred to 2026 [1] Group 1 - Each province's renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight will be calculated based on the actual physical electricity consumed within the province, supplemented by the purchase of green certificates from outside the province [1] - The assessment of green electricity consumption in key energy-consuming industries will primarily rely on green certificates [1] - In 2025, provinces will be evaluated on the green electricity consumption ratio for the electrolytic aluminum industry, while the steel, cement, polysilicon, and newly built data centers at national hub nodes will only be monitored without assessment [1]

智通财经7月11日电，国家发展改革委办公厅、国家能源局综合司发布关于2025年可再生能源电力消纳 责任权重及有关事项的通知，本次下达的2025年可再生能源电力消纳责任权重为约束性指标，按此对各 省（自治区、直辖市）进行考核评估；2026年权重为预期性指标，各省（自治区、直辖市）要按此做好 项目储备，并结合2025年消纳责任权重完成情况优化纳入新能源可持续发展价格结算机制的电量规模， 结合新能源消纳需求，同步加强调节能力规划建设等配套措施，进一步提高电力系统消纳和调控水平。 | 电力消纳贡仕仪重 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 省（自治区、直辖市） | 2025 年总量消纳责任权重 | 2025 年非水电消纳责任权重 | | 北京 | 30.6% | 28.9% | | 天津 | 29.7% | 28.9% | | 河北 | 29.2% | 27.9% | | 山西 | 29.4% | 28.1% | | 内蒙古 | 30.7% | 30.0% | | 辽宁 | 28.4% | 25.1% | | 吉林 | 39.0% | 30.0% | | 黑龙江 | 38.6% | 30.0% | ...

Group 1 - Multiple silicon wafer companies have raised their prices, with increases ranging from 8.0% to 11.7% [2][5] - The price of N-type 183 silicon wafers increased by 11.1% to 1.0 yuan/piece, N-type 210R wafers rose by 11.7% to 1.15 yuan/piece, and N-type 210 wafers went up by 8.0% to 1.35 yuan/piece [5] - Following the price increase, the unit gross profit for N-type 183 silicon wafers improved to -0.27 yuan/piece (equivalent to -0.03 yuan/W), indicating a reduction in loss margin [5] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued guidelines for the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights for 2025 and 2026, which include new green power consumption ratios for key industries such as steel, cement, and polysilicon [2][6] - The 2025 renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight is a binding indicator for provincial assessments, while the 2026 weight is a projected indicator for project preparation [6][7] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies such as TBEA Co., Ltd. and Tongwei Co., Ltd. [3]

Group 1: Concept and Significance of Green Certificates - Green electricity refers to electricity generated from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, which is certified by a green certificate (green certificate) issued by the government or third-party organizations [2][17]. - The green certificate serves as the only proof of the environmental attributes of renewable energy electricity in China, facilitating the transition to green energy and supporting the achievement of carbon neutrality goals [2][21]. - Implementing the green certificate system helps guide green electricity consumption, promotes the development and utilization of renewable energy projects, and supports the connection between electricity and carbon markets [2][21]. Group 2: Issuance and Style of Green Certificates - The green certificates in China are issued by the National Energy Administration and are based on a national green certificate issuance and trading system [3][25]. - Each green certificate corresponds to 1,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity, and the certificates are issued monthly with a validity period of two years [3][18]. - The certificate includes essential information such as project name, electricity generation, and has both Chinese and English versions for verification [3][32]. Group 3: Trading Models of Green Certificates - Green certificate trading includes two models: separate trading and green electricity trading, with the former allowing nationwide trading without physical grid constraints [4][41]. - The trading price of green certificates is determined by the market without upper or lower limits, and transactions can be conducted through listing or bilateral negotiation [4][41]. - Foreign entities may purchase Chinese green certificates under certain conditions, and trading can be facilitated through authorized agencies [4][39]. Group 4: Application Scenarios of Green Certificates - Holders of green certificates can declare their consumption and apply for cancellation, with no difference in application between tradable and non-tradable certificates [5][54]. - Green certificates can be integrated into energy consumption control systems, and the traded electricity is counted towards energy-saving assessments [5][61]. - In the international context, Chinese green certificates are similar to the EU's Guarantees of Origin (GO) and are actively seeking international recognition [5][71]. Group 5: Cancellation and System of Green Certificates - The cancellation of green certificates is crucial for ensuring the uniqueness of their environmental attributes, with certificates being canceled after their validity period or upon consumption declaration [6][79]. - A green certificate account is used to manage green certificate assets, with each entity allowed only one account, while provincial accounts are managed by local authorities [6][84]. - The national green certificate issuance and trading system is linked to the registration system, allowing users to access and manage their certificates online [6][93].

Core Insights - The National Energy Administration has reported that Shaanxi Province has achieved a renewable energy consumption responsibility weight completion of 26.6%, with a total renewable energy consumption of 69.1 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - Shaanxi's non-hydropower renewable energy consumption reached 60.2 billion kilowatt-hours, exceeding the national target [1] Group 1 - Shaanxi Province is implementing a new energy security strategy and is focused on achieving carbon neutrality goals by developing a new power system centered around renewable energy [1][2] - The installed capacity of renewable energy in Shaanxi has increased to 56.56 million kilowatts by the end of March 2025, which is 2.3 times that of the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with an annual growth rate exceeding 23% [1] - The proportion of renewable energy in the total installed capacity of the province has risen to 48% [1] Group 2 - The provincial development and reform commission aims to prioritize the development of renewable energy and establish three renewable energy bases, while also promoting pumped storage projects and the hydrogen energy storage industry [2] - The goal is to enhance the external power transmission channels and facilitate large-scale, high-proportion, and market-oriented development of renewable energy [2] - This initiative is expected to empower the province's high-quality development and ensure national energy security [2]