Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal has recently increased, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing at 834 RMB/ton as of November 14, marking a slight increase. The price at Guangzhou Port has reached 880 RMB, surpassing the previously indicated target of 750 RMB for coal-electricity profit sharing, and is currently within the expected fourth target price range of 800-860 RMB [1][2]. Thermal Coal Market Analysis - The recent increase in thermal coal prices is attributed to a combination of supply contraction and a surge in demand, particularly due to heating needs from a cold wave in northern regions and accelerated port restocking [2]. - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port is reported at 1860 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB in July, while coking coal futures have risen from 719 RMB in June to 1192 RMB, reflecting a cumulative increase of 65.79% [2]. Investment Logic - The price of thermal coal is expected to follow a four-step process: restoring central and local long-term contracts, achieving coal-electricity profit sharing, and surpassing the breakeven point for power plants, which is projected at 860 RMB [3]. - The price of coking coal is influenced more by market dynamics, with a significant correlation to thermal coal prices. The current ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices is 2.4, suggesting target prices for coking coal of 1608 RMB, 1680 RMB, 1800 RMB, and 2064 RMB corresponding to the four target levels of thermal coal [3]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is positioned for potential gains due to both cyclical recovery and dividend stability. The current prices of thermal and coking coal are still at historical lows, providing room for upward movement [4][5]. - The report highlights four main investment lines: 1. Cyclical logic with stocks like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal for thermal coal, and Pingmei Shenma and Huabei Mining for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic with companies like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity with companies like Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic with companies like Xinjie Energy and Guanghui Energy [5].

Core Viewpoint - The coal ETF (515220) has stabilized and rebounded, leading the market with an increase of over 2.4%. The fund has seen a significant inflow, with its share growing over 300% this year, reaching a scale of over 12 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current prices of thermal coal and coking coal are at historical lows, providing room for a rebound. The supply-side policy of "checking overproduction" is expected to reduce output, while the demand-side anticipates a recovery in non-electric coal demand during the "golden September and silver October" peak season, indicating an improvement in the coal supply-demand fundamentals [1]. - The coal sector is characterized by both cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. Despite an overall profit pressure expected in 2025, most coal companies maintain high dividend yields. Six listed coal companies have announced interim dividend plans, reflecting their commitment to shareholder returns despite significant year-on-year profit declines [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The capital market is experiencing emotional fluctuations due to global political and economic uncertainties, alongside domestic economic stabilization expectations. The coal sector, with its dual attributes of cyclical and dividend characteristics, is seen as an attractive investment opportunity as the fundamentals are at a turning point [1]. - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities in the coal sector through the coal ETF's linked fund (008280) [1].