证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|轻工制造 轻工制造 2025Q2 业绩综述： 板块景气度分化，聚焦优质赛道投资机遇 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年09月29日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2025Q2 轻工制造板块收入同比+3.59%提升至1580.45 亿元，2025H1 同比+2.34%提升至2958.02 亿元。2025Q2 归母净利润同比-23.98%至 72.05 亿元，2025H1 同比-20.32%至 136.67 亿元。 造纸收入同比下滑 11.91%，文娱板块微增，家居、包装印刷同比实现双位数增长，其中家居 剔除特殊个股后，板块同比呈小个位数下滑。定制家居承压，软体表现相对较优；造纸龙头太 阳纸业盈利环比修复；出口盈利分化，海外产能爬坡使部分出口企业业绩承压；舆情扰动个护 龙头 Q2 电商渠道盈利。 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 29 管泉森 康璇 童苇航 SAC：S0590523100007 SAC：S0590525010003 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年09月29日 轻工制造 轻工制造 ...

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - SMIC is the only domestic foundry with advanced process technology, benefiting from the explosion in AI chip demand and domestic substitution trends[1] - In 2025, advanced process revenue is expected to grow by 68% year-on-year, with plans to expand capacity to become the third-largest foundry globally[1] - The company's orders visibility has extended to 2026, indicating strong demand from key clients[1] Group 2: AI and Computing - Fourth Paradigm's platform sales are expected to turn from loss to profit, with a projected EPS increase from -0.6 to 0.4[1] - The overall valuation is currently around 4 times P/S, which is relatively low compared to domestic AI companies like SenseTime and US-based Palantir[1] - Risks include underperformance in AI technology development and market demand not meeting expectations[1] Group 3: Battery and Energy Storage - Zhongxin Innovation's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with a 101% increase in net profit expected in 2025[1] - The company is benefiting from high margins in overseas sales of power batteries and strong growth in commercial vehicles and energy storage batteries[1] - Risks include fluctuations in raw material prices and intensified competition in the industry[1] Group 4: Aerospace and Defense - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft's performance is expected to improve due to the implementation of fundraising projects aimed at enhancing research and production capabilities[1] - The company is focusing on modernizing weaponry and defense equipment, with a projected revenue increase of 13% in 2025[1] - Risks include legal penalties and management challenges affecting operational efficiency[1] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector - Zai Lab is advancing its commercialization efforts with three approved products, including a JAK inhibitor participating in the 2025 medical insurance negotiations[1] - The company is expected to accelerate product promotion, benefiting patients and enhancing revenue streams[1] - Risks include potential failures in new drug development and regulatory approval delays[1]

在产能建设方面，仙鹤股份位于广西来宾的"年产250万吨三江口新区高性能纸基新材料项目"和湖北石 首的"年产250万吨高性能纸基新材料循环经济项目"均于2024年顺利投产。这两大项目充分利用当地资 源优势，抢占原材料与生产的战略高地，实现林浆纸一体化全产业链布局，有效弥补上游制浆环节的短 板。 仙鹤股份副总经理、董事会秘书王昱哲告诉《证券日报》记者："湖北、广西基地投产后区域协同效应 显著。广西基地依托区位优势保障原材料供应与成本控制；湖北基地高效辐射中部市场。两地水电资源 丰富且均获有力政策支持。基地定位清晰，形成从原料到市场的互补格局，无重大瓶颈。公司已建立柔 性生产与统一调度机制，可根据市场需求灵活调配基地产能，有效应对局部供需波动，实现整体运营最 优化。" 除了广西和湖北两地，今年7月份，仙鹤股份发布公告称，本公司与四川省合江县人民政府正式签署了 《竹浆纸用一体化高性能纸基新材料项目投资协议书》。公告显示，仙鹤股份计划利用当地可再生原材 料资源进行生产布局，整合当地优势资源，延伸上游产业链，丰富纸基新材料品类，拓宽主营业务范 围，增强公司产业竞争力，助力区域循环经济绿色发展。 9月29日，仙鹤股份（60 ...

Core Insights - The A-share listed paper companies in China reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 91.647 billion yuan and total profit of only 64 million yuan, indicating a challenging operating environment for the industry [1][4][13] Revenue Summary - A total of 27 listed paper companies reported revenues exceeding 2 billion yuan, with 19 companies achieving revenues over 10 billion yuan, representing 70.37% of the total [4] - The revenue of the top two companies, Sun Paper and Shanying International, was 19.113 billion yuan and 13.842 billion yuan respectively, while Chenming Paper's revenue dropped to 2.107 billion yuan due to production line maintenance [4][5] - 14 companies experienced revenue growth, accounting for 51.85% of the total, a decrease from 64.29% in the previous year [5] Profit Summary - The total profit for the 27 listed paper companies was only 64 million yuan, a drastic drop from 4.385 billion yuan in the same period last year, with 24 companies remaining profitable [8][9] - Sun Paper led the profit rankings with 1.78 billion yuan, while 10 companies reported profits exceeding 100 million yuan, a decrease of one company compared to the previous year [8][9] - 15 companies saw a decline in net profit, with 3 companies experiencing losses, the most significant being ST Chenming with a net loss of 3.858 billion yuan [9][10] Industry Trends - The paper industry is facing a "ice-fire two重天" situation, with production increasing but profits declining due to supply-demand imbalances and high costs [13] - The production of mechanical paper and paperboard in China increased by 3.2% in the first half of 2025, but the revenue for the paper and paper products industry decreased by 2.3% [13] - Leading companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe Co. are focusing on integrated operations to mitigate cost pressures and enhance profitability [13][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 28.62 CNY [6][12]. Core Views - In the short term, the price of pulp has confirmed its bottom, and recent increases in international prices may gradually transmit to paper prices, leading to improved profitability in the second half of the year. In the long term, as new production capacity ramps up, the overall profitability of the company is expected to increase [2][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,553 million CNY in 2023 to 16,517 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.4% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 664 million CNY in 2023 to 1,592 million CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 51.2% in 2024 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.94 CNY in 2023 to 2.26 CNY in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 9.1% in 2023 to 15.1% in 2027 [4]. Production and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 1,107,900 tons of pulp and paper, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.55% in production and 62.25% in sales volume [12]. - The self-produced pulp has reached a level that can effectively replace imported wood pulp, with the Guangxi base achieving a net profit of 117 million CNY in the first half of 2025 [12]. - The company expects profitability to improve as new production capacities are gradually released, particularly in the Hubei base, which is anticipated to turn profitable [12]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the second quarter of 2025 was 12.82%, a decrease of 4.57 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8%, down 3.84 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The company experienced slight increases in expense ratios, with financial expenses rising mainly due to increased interest costs [12].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The paper industry is experiencing a price increase due to the traditional peak season and a dual strategy of "price hikes + shutdowns" implemented by several paper mills [1] - Major paper manufacturers such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper have announced price increases since early September [1] - The overall supply-demand situation in the paper industry is expected to improve in the second half of the year, indicating a proactive approach by paper companies to control market dynamics during peak demand periods [1][2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, only 4 out of 23 listed paper companies in A-shares reported positive net profit growth, indicating significant pressure on the industry [2] - The average price of raw paper in the first half of the year was approximately 4218 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.82% decrease from the previous period and an 8.06% year-on-year decline [2] - The operating rate of the industry fell below 65%, highlighting the challenges faced by paper companies [2] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Leading companies like Sun Paper have shown strong anti-cyclical characteristics by integrating the entire supply chain from forest to pulp to paper [3] - Sun Paper reported a revenue of 19.113 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan, maintaining its industry leadership [3] - The company is advancing its "forest-pulp-paper integration" strategy with new projects in Guangxi, enhancing its cost control capabilities [3] Group 4: Market Trends - The upcoming peak seasons such as Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to boost downstream inventory replenishment, improving the supply-demand balance [4] - The paper industry is actively exploring overseas markets, with companies like Bohui Paper achieving significant growth in export business [5] - Bohui Paper's export business has become a core driver of sustainable development, supported by a strategic focus on international markets [5][6] Group 5: Product Innovation - Bohui Paper has launched high-value-added differentiated products to meet the increasing demand for food-grade safety in overseas markets [6] - The company reported a 142% year-on-year increase in sales of internationally certified products, which have become essential for entering major global supply chains [6] - Sun Paper also saw a 72% increase in overseas sales revenue, emphasizing the importance of expanding export markets [6]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of CNY 19.113 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 1.780 billion [3] - As of the end of the reporting period, total assets amounted to CNY 56.445 billion, with net assets attributable to shareholders at CNY 30.356 billion, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 46.01% [3] Group 2: Operational Strategies - The company implemented a differentiated strategy focusing on "raw materials, processes, and products" to enhance overall competitiveness [3] - The company achieved a 3.3% reduction in unit comprehensive energy consumption for pulp and paper products in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 3: Project Developments - The 37,000-ton specialty paper project at the Yandian plant began trial production in April 2025 and entered stable operation in May 2025 [4] - The 600,000-ton bleached chemical pulp project and the 700,000-ton high-end packaging paper project are set to enhance production capacity and reduce reliance on external purchases [5][6] Group 4: Market Expansion - The company reported a 72% year-on-year increase in overseas sales revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong focus on expanding international markets [7] - Plans to enhance product exports, particularly in cultural paper, life paper, and specialty paper, are a key focus for future growth [7] Group 5: Industry Impact - The introduction of double-glue paper futures is expected to increase price transparency and stabilize market prices, although it may also lead to increased volatility in the short term [8] - The company is strategically expanding its operations in Shandong to enhance its competitive edge in the northern market [9]

Core Viewpoint - Sun Paper Industry plans to invest in two major projects in its Shandong base, including a 600,000-ton bleaching chemical pulp project and a 700,000-ton high-end packaging paper project, with total investments not exceeding RMB 3.51 billion and RMB 1.53 billion respectively [1][5] Investment Projects - The 600,000-ton bleaching chemical pulp project aims to enhance the production capacity of the Shandong base, reducing reliance on external purchases of bleaching wood pulp and improving cost control [3][6] - The 700,000-ton high-end packaging paper project aligns with the company's long-term development strategy and is expected to further enhance the efficiency of the three major bases [1][5] Strategic Development - Sun Paper Industry's "Four Three Three" strategy focuses on adjusting its business structure to achieve a profit distribution among three segments: paper making, biomass new materials, and fast-moving consumer goods, with revenue shares targeted at 40%, 30%, and 30% respectively [3][6] - The company has established a strategic layout with three major bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos, which are crucial for achieving high-efficiency collaborative development [3][7] Market Positioning - The company aims to enhance its product competitiveness and market share in the northern market by optimizing and upgrading production facilities across its Shandong base [6][7] - Sun Paper Industry is recognized as one of the few listed companies in China that has achieved "forest-pulp-paper integration" and full-category coverage, which strengthens its ability to withstand industry cyclical fluctuations [7] Future Outlook - The company is set to launch significant new production capacities by 2025, including various projects that are expected to improve profitability as pulp and paper prices recover [6][7]

Core Insights - The paper industry in A-shares is under pressure, with only 4 out of 16 listed companies reporting positive net profit growth in the first half of 2025, highlighting the cyclical nature of the industry [1] - Shandong Sun Paper Industry Co., Ltd. leads the industry with a revenue of 19.113 billion and a net profit of 1.78 billion [1] - The industry is experiencing structural adjustments in capacity expansion, cost optimization, and export growth, but still faces supply-demand pressures and profit differentiation [1] Company Strategies - Sun Paper is implementing a differentiated strategy across raw materials, processes, and products, focusing on self-manufactured pulp to reduce fiber costs and improve production efficiency [1] - The company has achieved cost reductions in energy, raw materials, and maintenance during the reporting period, ensuring stable operational performance [1] - Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co., Ltd. reports steady growth in core business profitability due to lean management practices, optimizing supply chain management, and controlling procurement costs [1] Industry Challenges - The paper industry faces significant cost pressures primarily from raw materials and energy, with uncertainties in their price trends impacting overall industry costs [2] - The financial attributes and price volatility of pulp used in cultural paper, along with rising costs of waste paper for packaging due to weather factors, contribute to these challenges [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate structural adjustments in the industry, with a shift towards high-end and differentiated production necessary for overcoming current market challenges [2] Future Outlook - Sun Paper's "integrated forestry, pulp, and paper" strategy is set to advance with the completion of its Nanning base projects, enhancing operational synergy [2] - The packaging paper market is anticipated to see a slowdown in capacity expansion by 2025, with a need for transformation towards high-end products [2] - The industry is expected to achieve supply-demand balance through market mechanisms, with a potential turning point for paper prices by 2026 as the "anti-involution" policy continues [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company's Q2 gross margin improved sequentially, leading to a quarterly profit that exceeded expectations [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 19.11 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [5]. - The report highlights that the decline in revenue was primarily due to falling paper prices, particularly in the pulp and paper business [6][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing expansion of its production capacity across its three major bases, which will enhance its operational efficiency and product structure [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 17.3%, a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points and a sequential increase of 1.5 percentage points [8]. - The first half of 2025 saw a gross margin of 16.5%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to 40.2 billion, 45.9 billion, and 53.9 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 10% across the board [10]. Revenue Breakdown - For the first half of 2025, the revenue from various paper products was as follows: double glue paper (4.2 billion yuan, -14.8% YoY), copper plate paper (2.02 billion yuan, -4.9% YoY), and life paper (1.29 billion yuan, +24.0% YoY) [6]. - The revenue from the pulp business was also affected, with chemical pulp revenue down 20.3% YoY [6]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The report indicates that the decline in gross margin for the paper business was mainly due to a shift in product mix and falling paper prices, which outpaced the decrease in raw material costs [8]. - The company’s operating expense ratio for the first half of 2025 was 5.4%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Future Outlook - The company is set to launch several production lines in its Guangxi base in the second half of the year, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and operational synergy [9]. - The long-term performance outlook remains positive due to the ongoing expansion and integration of its supply chain [10].