信达证券（601059）股份有限公司姜文镪,李晨近期对仙鹤股份（603733）进行研究并发布了研究报告 《仙鹤股份：底部利润夯实，林浆纸布局持续完善》，给予仙鹤股份买入评级。 仙鹤股份 事件：公司发布2025年半年度报告。25H1收入实现59.91亿元(同比+30.1%)，归母净利润为4.74亿元(同 比-13.8%)，扣非归母净利润为4.43亿元(同比-11.2%)。单Q2收入实现30.00亿元(同比+25.3%)，归母净利润 为2.38亿元(同比-15.4%)，扣非归母净利润为2.19亿元(同比-16.4%)。 点评：受益于新基地浆纸放量，公司收入维系高增；利润环比稳定，部分纸种价格下降且湖北基地仍处扭 亏阶段(25H1亏损0.74亿元)，但广西基地贡献增量，逆势保持业绩稳定。 自制浆占比提升，盈利底部夯实。根据我们测算，公司Q2造纸均价环比下滑约578元/吨，但由于自制浆放 量(广西/湖北H1纸浆产量分别为21.2/10.3万吨)，公司成本端受益明显，造纸吨盈利保持平稳(其中我们预 计薄纸环比平稳、厚纸稳步减亏、夏王环比小幅改善)。展望未来，纸浆8月已现反弹，Suzano阔叶浆8/9月 均提价20美元/ ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 仙鹤股份(603733) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 点评：受益于新基地浆纸放量，公司收入维系高增；利润环比稳定，部分纸种 价格下降且湖北基地仍处扭亏阶段（25H1 亏损 0.74 亿元），但广西基地贡献增 量，逆势保持业绩稳定。 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 仙鹤股份：底部利润夯实，林浆纸布局持续完 善 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 24 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary]2025年半年度报告。25H1收入实现59.91亿元（同比+30.1%）， 归母 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous change and resilience in business, illustrated through the journey of Zhang Yin, the founder of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings, who transformed challenges into opportunities in the recycling and paper industry [2][30]. Group 1: Zhang Yin's Early Challenges - At the age of 27, Zhang Yin left a stable job to enter the waste paper recycling industry in Hong Kong, which was dominated by gangsters [6]. - She faced significant challenges, including industry fraud where waste paper was often diluted with water, leading to high costs for downstream paper mills [6][7]. - Zhang's commitment to integrity and quality, refusing to accept waste paper with more than 15% water content, set her apart in a corrupt environment [7][8]. Group 2: Expansion into the U.S. Market - In 1990, Zhang Yin and her husband moved to the U.S. to tap into a larger market for recycled paper, despite language barriers and lack of connections [10]. - They identified an opportunity to utilize empty shipping containers returning to Asia, creating a cost-effective supply chain for waste paper [10][12]. - By 2001, their company was exporting over 5 million tons of waste paper annually from the U.S. to Asia, establishing a significant presence in the market [12][13]. Group 3: Growth and Challenges of Nine Dragons Paper - In 1996, Zhang returned to China to establish Nine Dragons Paper, investing $110 million in a production line with a capacity of 200,000 tons, significantly larger than competitors [15]. - By 2006, Nine Dragons became the largest paper manufacturer in China and the second largest in Asia, with major clients including Coca-Cola and Nike [15][16]. - However, the 2008 financial crisis severely impacted the company, leading to a drastic drop in orders and a 97% decline in stock price [19][20]. Group 4: Crisis Management and Recovery - In response to the crisis, Zhang implemented a strict self-rescue plan, halting all expansion projects and focusing on domestic markets [21][22]. - This strategy led to a remarkable turnaround, with Nine Dragons achieving a profit increase of 1.3 billion RMB in the 2009 fiscal year [21][22]. Group 5: Environmental Commitment and Future Strategies - Zhang recognized the critical importance of environmental sustainability in the paper industry, investing 22 billion RMB in eco-friendly technologies [24]. - Following China's "waste ban" in 2017, Nine Dragons adapted by acquiring advanced pulp mills and establishing a closed-loop supply chain [26][27]. - The company aims for self-sufficiency in raw materials and a total production capacity of 25.37 million tons, positioning itself for future growth [27][28].

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 8 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | | | 73 | | FR 107 | 底价 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company is investing approximately 11 billion RMB in an integrated bamboo pulp and paper project in Sichuan, aiming for a production capacity of 800,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 1.2 million tons of high-performance paper materials annually. The first phase is expected to be operational within three years [2]. - The trend of replacing traditional plastic packaging with pulp/bamboo pulp is gaining momentum, supported by environmental policies and technological advancements in bamboo pulp production, which is expected to significantly expand the market size [2]. - The company has a substantial inventory of pulp, which is anticipated to improve profit margins as pulp prices stabilize and recover [3]. - The full operation of the company's bases in Guangxi and Hubei is expected to enhance its integrated supply chain, significantly increase production capacity, and improve market share [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is focusing on an integrated bamboo pulp and paper project with a total investment of about 11 billion RMB, targeting a production capacity of 800,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 1.2 million tons of high-performance paper materials annually [2]. Market Analysis - The shift towards pulp/bamboo pulp as an eco-friendly alternative to plastic is becoming more pronounced, with increasing demand in sectors such as food service and healthcare, leading to a broader application of pulp products [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 12.91 billion RMB, 15.26 billion RMB, and 17.74 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 25.70%, 18.14%, and 16.25% respectively. Net profit is projected to reach 1.21 billion RMB, 1.46 billion RMB, and 1.77 billion RMB during the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 20.53%, 20.99%, and 20.74% [5][10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.71 RMB, 2.07 RMB, and 2.50 RMB, with current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10, 8, and 7 respectively [5][10]. Production Capacity and Integration - The company has successfully launched production lines in Hubei and Guangxi, with significant output already achieved. Future expansions are planned to further enhance production capabilities [4]. - The company is also developing 300,000 acres of its own forest land and has access to an additional 1 million acres of state-owned forest land to ensure a stable supply of raw materials [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant price increase in the next 6-12 months [6][13]. Core Views - The report highlights that multiple paper companies have issued price increase notices, which may improve the industry's profitability [2]. - It notes that overseas pulp mills are reducing production, which is expected to stabilize and potentially increase pulp prices [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in finished paper prices as pulp prices rise and demand improves, particularly in the second half of 2025 [4]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and enhancing its integrated operations in the pulp and paper industry, which is expected to improve profitability [5]. - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company show a steady growth trajectory from 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 436.97 billion, 472.71 billion, and 506.73 billion yuan, respectively [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Analysis - In August, several paper companies announced price increases, marking the fourth round of price adjustments since July, indicating a trend towards improved profitability in the packaging paper sector [2]. - Domestic pulp prices have been under pressure due to concentrated production capacity and weak downstream demand, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2025 as demand picks up [3]. Company Performance - The company has launched several new production lines and projects, including a 37,000-ton specialty paper project and various pulp production lines, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [5]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 436.97 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.29%, and net profits of 35.46 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.33% increase [6]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.27 yuan for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 7 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PT ...

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. plans to invest approximately 110 billion yuan in an integrated high-performance paper-based new materials project, with the first phase costing about 55 billion yuan and the second phase contingent on the first phase's success [1][2]. Group 1: Company Investment Plans - The project will be located in Luzhou, Sichuan Province, and aims to produce 800,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 1.2 million tons of high-performance paper-based new materials annually [2]. - The first phase will cover 2,000 acres and is expected to yield an annual output value of approximately 5.15 billion yuan and tax revenue of about 450 million yuan, creating around 2,000 jobs [2]. - The second phase's investment will depend on the operational results of the first phase and market conditions, with no guaranteed timeline for its initiation [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The paper industry is currently experiencing a "de-involution" trend, with a focus on high-quality development and avoiding blind expansion of low-end capacity [3]. - The overall performance of the paper industry is strong, with a reported production of 15.847 million tons of paper and board in 2024, marking a 10% year-on-year increase, the highest growth in nearly 12 years [4]. - The favorable supply-demand dynamics and stable cost reductions have led to improved profitability for companies in the paper industry in 2024 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing a series of price increases driven by rising costs, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Jiangxi Lee & Man Paper announcing price hikes for corrugated paper and recycled cardboard starting August 1, 2023 [2][4][5] Group 1: Price Increases - Multiple paper companies have issued price increase notices, marking the fourth round of price hikes this year, with Nine Dragons Paper leading the charge [3][4] - The price increase for corrugated and recycled cardboard is set at 30 yuan per ton, following previous hikes earlier in July [3][4] - The overall trend shows that paper companies have raised prices in March-April, May, and July, indicating a pattern of frequent adjustments in response to cost pressures [4][5] Group 2: Cost Pressures - The primary reason for the price hikes is the tightening supply of raw materials, particularly waste paper, which has significantly increased operational costs for paper manufacturers [2][4] - The average market price for waste yellow board paper as of July 23, 2023, was 1482 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.75% [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite the price increases, the transmission of these costs through the supply chain remains uncertain due to weak demand and excess supply, leading to competitive pricing pressures among packaging companies [5][6] - The overall industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a projected consumption growth rate of only 1.5% for paper products in 2024, while new production capacity is expected to exceed 10 million tons [6][7] Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Leading paper companies are focusing on enhancing their core competitiveness through increased R&D investment, full industry chain layout, and collaboration with downstream partners [7] - Companies like Xianhe Co. and Sun Paper are investing heavily in raw material sourcing and production capacity to strengthen their market position and reduce operational costs [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the participation of APP (Asia Pulp & Paper) at the third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo, emphasizing its commitment to sustainable development and the integration of resources between China and Indonesia [3][6][14]. Group 1: APP's Role and Contributions - APP showcased its theme "Linking Ecology, Creating a Golden World" at the expo, indicating a focus on enhancing the supply chain ecosystem [3][6]. - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain in China and Indonesia, enhancing its resource control and creating a competitive advantage through a "dual circulation" model [3][6][12]. - APP's participation coincided with the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Indonesia, where it launched the "APP Global Electronic Catalog" to facilitate regional cooperation [6][12]. Group 2: Sustainable Practices and Innovations - APP presented its commitment to sustainability through innovative products like the Enza Shield high-barrier paper, which is fully biodegradable and recyclable [9][11]. - The company is focusing on green innovation, exemplified by its zero-plastic water-based barrier food packaging, which aligns with industry trends towards sustainability [11][12]. - APP is integrating sustainable practices across its supply chain, including responsible sourcing and enhancing the proportion of certified raw materials [12][11]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Future Outlook - The expo serves as a platform for global partners to explore sustainable development, allowing companies to expand their networks and innovate collaboration models [15][14]. - APP believes that the expo facilitates the penetration of "chain" value across industry boundaries, promoting a shared vision of cooperation and mutual benefits [14][15]. - The company aims to leverage the opportunities presented at the expo to enhance its sustainable development capabilities and contribute to the industry's future [16][15].