国金证券分析称，周期板块多个细分领域涨价机会涌现，锂电产业链中的六氟磷酸锂、碳酸锂等掀起涨价潮，周期板块的钾肥、聚氨酯、氟化工等在供需错 配的催化下价格持续向好。在基本面有所改善的背景下，化工板块的配置占比在4 季度出现触底回升，考虑到当前板块扩产周期基本结束且盈利仍然处于周 期底部，同时从估值和仓位角度来看也存在一定的切换优势，因而继续看好大化工板块投资机会。 石化ETF(159731)紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证石化产业指数前十大权重股分别为万华化学、中国石油、中国石化、 盐湖股份、中国海油、藏格矿业、巨化股份、恒力石化、华鲁恒升、宝丰能源，前十大权重股合计占比56.73%。 截至2026年1月26日9:59，中证石化产业指数上涨0.02%，成分股中国海油上涨3.15%，盐湖股份上涨2.3%，云天化上涨2.2%，中国石化上涨1.95%，中国石 油上涨1.83%。石化ETF(159731)上涨0.1%，最新价报1.03元。流动性方面，石化ETF盘中换手8.41%。拉长时间看，截至1月23日，石化ETF近1周日均成交 1.3亿元。 从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF近13 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown outstanding performance in 2025, leading the market with a 75% increase year-to-date as of October 10, 2025, driven by various factors including the impact of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Performance Drivers - The strong performance of the non-ferrous sector is attributed to the rise in commodity prices across various sub-sectors, significantly influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, with expectations for further cuts [6]. - The anticipated continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to further boost commodity prices in the non-ferrous sector, particularly for precious and industrial metals, which are sensitive to global interest rate environments [6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There remains potential for investment in the non-ferrous sector, primarily due to the expected further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to additional price increases in the sector [6]. - Beyond the non-ferrous sector, other industries such as transportation (aviation, oil shipping), chemicals (pesticides, chlor-alkali), and construction materials (glass fiber, cement) are also approaching cyclical lows and turning points worth monitoring [10]. Group 3: Sector Comparisons - The non-ferrous sectors in Hong Kong and A-shares are fundamentally similar, with differences mainly in market conditions and investor types; currently, the valuation of the Hong Kong non-ferrous sector is relatively cheaper compared to A-shares [8]. Group 4: Investment Logic and Risks - The investment logic for the non-ferrous sector involves an initial phase driven by trading expectations based on macroeconomic conditions, followed by a second phase where actual commodity price increases may lead to stock price volatility [10]. - Key risks to monitor include potential price peaks, the pace of future Federal Reserve rate cuts, domestic macroeconomic conditions, and central bank gold purchasing activities [10].