国信证券(香港)·宏观周报 宏观周报（2025/8/18-8/22） "哑铃型"资产配置的逻辑 要点摘要 【上周焦点】 【宏观经济概览】 ⚫ 高频数据观察：美国经济增长动能边际放缓，消费仍边际偏 弱，就业市场继续降温，地产需求走弱。美日欧经济意外指 数上升。 【本周重点关注】 【观点及配置建议】 ⚫ 在全球经济基本面承压、经济政策仍具不确定性的宏观环境 下，资本市场波动或进一步加剧。从全球大类资产配置的视 角出发，在捕捉成长性及事件性市场机会的同时，应为不确 定性和波动提供尾部风险保护，建议"哑铃型"多元资产配 置逻辑，实现跨越周期的稳健收益。 2025 年 8 月 25 日 宏观周报 主要股市指数一年表现 主要利率一年表现 曾伟杰 SFC CE No.: BUH477 +852 2899 8300 javezeng@guosen.com.cn 注：以上数据均来官方披露、公司资料，国信证券（香港）研究部整理，请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及其项下所有内容。 ⚫ 美国：美股回调内部走势分化，三大指数先抑后扬，科技股 抛压显著，道指创历史新高，周五鲍威尔讲话释放降息信 号，推动市场风险偏好回升；美债收益率下行，美元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2][6]. Core Insights - The insurance industry experienced steady growth in fund utilization, with a net increase of over 1.6 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, bringing the total fund utilization balance to 34.93 trillion yuan, a 5.0% increase from the beginning of the year [5][6]. - The allocation of funds has shifted, with bonds and stocks reaching their highest proportions in recent years, highlighting a more pronounced "barbell" structure in investment strategy [6]. - The report notes a significant increase in equity investments, with insurance companies actively increasing their positions in the transportation sector and continuing to engage in shareholding activities primarily in the banking and public utility sectors [6][15]. Summary by Sections Fund Utilization - As of Q1 2025, the balance of funds utilized by insurance companies was 34.93 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 31.38 trillion yuan (89.8% of the total) and property insurance companies holding 2.27 trillion yuan (6.7% of the total) [5][6]. - The bond allocation reached 16.97 trillion yuan, accounting for 50.4% of total investments, the highest level in recent years, driven by a strategic increase in long-term bond investments [6]. - The stock balance increased to 2.82 trillion yuan, representing 8.4% of total investments, also the highest level in recent years, with a net increase of 389.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [6]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of long-duration bonds and high-dividend stocks as key components for insurance companies' revenue stability [6]. - The investment strategy is diversifying, with a cautious increase in equity allocation expected, alongside a richer variety of investment products [6]. Sector Focus - The top sectors for insurance equity investments include banking (45.8%), transportation (10.8%), real estate (7.4%), telecommunications (6.9%), and public utilities (6.1%) [10][11]. - The report highlights a trend of insurance companies increasing their stakes in high-dividend stocks, which provide stable returns and lower risk, aligning with long-term strategic investment goals [6][15]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks such as China Taiping and China Ping An, while suggesting to pay attention to New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and China Life Insurance for their long-term investment value [6].

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital is focusing on high dividend and technology growth sectors, with a total of 7,677 research activities conducted on A-share listed companies as of May 21 this year, indicating a strategic shift towards stable cash flow and growth potential [1][2]. Group 1: Research Activities - A total of 180 insurance institutions conducted 7,677 research activities on 1,292 A-share listed companies, showing a decrease in frequency compared to the same period last year [2]. - Among insurance asset management institutions, Taikang Asset Management and Huatai Asset Management led with 428 and 317 research activities, respectively [2]. - Pension insurance companies were the most active in research, with the top five being Ping An Pension Insurance, Changjiang Pension Insurance, China Life Pension Insurance, Taiping Pension Insurance, and China People's Pension Insurance [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Decrease in Research Frequency - The decline in research frequency is attributed to three main factors: focus on high dividend stocks in a low-interest environment, more precise investment strategies due to regulatory clarity, and established market consensus on certain technology growth sectors [3]. - Despite the decrease in research frequency, the allocation of stocks by insurance companies has increased, with the proportion of funds allocated to stocks rising to 7.56% for property insurance companies and 8.43% for life insurance companies, up by 1.2 and 1.65 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [3]. Group 3: Investment Focus - The primary focus of insurance capital research includes high dividend sectors and technology growth sectors, such as electronic components, industrial machinery, electrical components and equipment, integrated circuits, medical equipment, and regional banks [4]. - Over 500 of the researched companies are listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board or the Growth Enterprise Market, accounting for nearly 40% of the total [4]. - The core characteristics of the sectors being focused on are the stable cash flow from high dividend assets and the growth potential of high-tech assets, which are supported by government policies [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Insurance capital is expected to continue optimizing a "barbell" asset allocation strategy, balancing high dividend assets for stable returns with investments in technology innovation, green low-carbon initiatives, and health care sectors [5]. - The use of innovative tools such as long-term equity investments and REITs will be emphasized to enhance portfolio structure while strengthening ESG risk management [5]. - The industry is encouraged to maintain a long-term investment philosophy and actively seek sustainable investment opportunities [5].