Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Short - term rubber prices continue to rebound due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the raw material supply situation after the weather in the main producing areas improves [1] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 24, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 2.05%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market was 50.00 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht/kg from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.10% [1] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 795 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 6.00%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 120 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 4.35% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production was 272,200 tons, up 166,500 tons from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 157.52%. In June, the domestic tire production was 102.749 million pieces, up 756,000 pieces from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 0.74% [1] - **Inventory Change**: As of July 24, the bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 636,383 tons, up 4,006 tons from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.63%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 36,691 tons, down 303 tons from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.82% [1] Group 2: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Recently, the sentiment of commodities has improved under the tone of anti - involution and stable growth, and commodity prices have risen significantly. In terms of fundamentals, the arrival volume at ports is expected to gradually recover this week. Currently, the log demand is in the off - season, and weak demand drags down the spot price. Under the current strong expectations, investors need to pay attention to market sentiment changes and log supply and inventory. They can consider buying on dips [6] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 24, the 2509 log contract closed at 827.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 4.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The price of the main standard delivery item increased by 10 yuan. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter [6] - **Supply**: In June, the port shipment volume was 1.76 million cubic meters, up 37,000 cubic meters from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 2.12%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 53, down 5 from the previous month, with a monthly decrease of 8.62% [6] - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 3.29 million cubic meters, up 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 2.17% [6] - **Demand**: As of July 18, the daily average log delivery volume was 62,400 cubic meters, up 3,600 cubic meters from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.36% [6] Group 3: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the sharp rise in futures prices, the arbitrage window opens, and upstream enterprises have the motivation to hedge. The increase in warehouse receipts requires attention to the risk of price decline. Currently, the option volatility is high. If the volatility falls, investors can consider buying put options. They need to pay attention to risk management [7] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 24, the average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock was 46,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 44,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7] - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: The futures main contract price opened low and moved high, rising 3,685 yuan/ton to close at 53,765 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 and PS2507 was - 25 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 121.74% [7] - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production was 11.20 GM, up 0.10 GM from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.90%. The polysilicon production was 25,500 tons, up 2,500 tons from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 10.87% [7] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, up 4,900 tons from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 5.10%. The polysilicon import volume was 110 tons, up 20 tons from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 16.59% [7] - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 243,000 tons, down 6,000 tons from the previous month, with a monthly decrease of 2.41%. The silicon wafer inventory was 17.87 CM, up 1.85 CM from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 11.55% [7] Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Industrial silicon futures followed coking coal futures and fluctuated upward but dived in the late session. The fundamentals are weak. Although the industry profit has been repaired and the arbitrage window has opened, demand has weakened, and attention should be paid to inventory pressure. In the short term, it may still fluctuate strongly following coking coal, but the risk increases. If the prices of polysilicon and coking coal futures fall, the price will decline from the high level. Investors can try to buy put options. They need to pay attention to position control and risk management [8] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On July 24, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 10,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.00%. The price of Hua Le SI4210 industrial silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.98% [8] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 and 2509 was - 60 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 200.00%. The spread between 2509 and 2510 was 55 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 31.25% [8] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, down 41,400 tons from the previous month, with a monthly decrease of 12.10%. The Xinjiang industrial silicon production was 167,500 tons, down 43,300 tons from the previous month, with a monthly decrease of 20.55% [8] - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory was 126,100 tons, up 2,500 tons from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 2.02%. The Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory was 29,000 tons, up 1,700 tons from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 6.23% [8] Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The market's macro - bullish sentiment continues. The market information about coal production cuts this week continues to boost the market's bullish sentiment. The supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still in obvious surplus, and the demand for soda ash has no obvious growth in the future. The glass market is currently in the off - season, and the rigid demand has certain pressure. The current market is mainly driven by sentiment, and investors should pay attention to risk avoidance [10] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, the 2505 glass contract was 1,437 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 4.74%. The 2509 glass contract was 1,307 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 7.93% [10] - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The 2505 soda ash contract was 1,518 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 4.55%. The 2509 soda ash contract was 1,408 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 4.82% [10] - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate was 83.02%, down 1.08 percentage points from July 18. The weekly soda ash production was 723,800 tons, down 9,000 tons from July 18 [10] - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory was 61.89 million weight boxes, down 3.049 million weight boxes from July 18, with a decrease of 4.70%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 1.8646 million tons, down 41,000 tons from July 18, with a decrease of 2.15% [10] - **Real Estate Data Year - on - Year**: The new construction area decreased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [10]