Group 1 - The Shanghai silver futures closed at 18,450 yuan per kilogram on January 8, with a daily decline of 5.90% and a trading volume of 2,142,360 contracts [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai was quoted at 19,420 yuan per kilogram, indicating a premium of 970 yuan per kilogram over the futures price [1] - Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo an annual rebalancing adjustment from January 9 to 15, 2026, which will result in over $14 billion in precious metal sell-offs due to a significant reduction in silver's weight from 9.6% to 3.94% [1] Group 2 - The ADP employment report for December indicated an increase of 41,000 jobs, which was below the market expectation of 47,000 jobs [2] Group 3 - The overall sentiment in the metal market has cooled, with Shanghai silver experiencing a retreat. The premium for Shanghai silver has narrowed to 1,400 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a domestic cooling trend [3] - Despite geopolitical concerns providing some support, the pressure from the commodity index adjustment suggests potential downward pressure on silver prices, although the open interest in Shanghai silver has not significantly decreased, indicating that bullish sentiment remains [3] - The suggested trading range for Shanghai silver is between 18,400 and 19,430 yuan per kilogram [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: January 5, 2026 [1] - Report Author: Xiang Weiyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - Gold: Influenced by geopolitical conflicts, but there is still pressure from commodity index adjustment, and the gold price remains volatile. The Shanghai gold premium has expanded and will make up for the increase. [4] - Silver: The silver price rebounded significantly, with strong sentiment and support under geopolitical concerns, but the support may be short - lived, and it is mainly in a volatile state. The Shanghai silver premium has expanded and will make up for the morning increase. [5] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Gold: The CME raised margins again. During the New Year's Day, the US air - raided Venezuela, and the gold price rebounded in the morning. US and European stock markets had different performances, US bond yields mostly rose, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.02% to $4341.90 per ounce. [4] - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price rebounded significantly in the morning. COMEX silver futures rose 2.35% to $72.27 per ounce. [5] 2. Daily Tips - Today's focus includes China's December RatingDog service industry PMI, the euro - zone's January Sentix investor confidence index, the US December ISM manufacturing index, and an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on the US military action against Venezuela. [4] 3. Today's Focus - 09:45: China's December RatingDog service industry PMI [15] - 15:30: Switzerland's November real retail sales [15] - 17:30: Euro - zone's January Sentix investor confidence index, UK's November central bank mortgage approvals [15] - 23:00: US December ISM manufacturing index, emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on the US military action against Venezuela [15] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold** - Fundamental situation: Neutral. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and margin increases. [4] - Basis: - 5.09, spot at a discount to futures, bearish. [4] - Inventory: Gold futures warehouse receipts are 97,704 kg, unchanged, bearish. [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, bullish. [4] - Main position: The main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing, bullish. [4] - **Silver** - Fundamental situation: Neutral. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and margin increases. [5] - Basis: - 30, spot at a discount to futures, neutral. [5] - Inventory: Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 755,754 kg, a decrease of 40,985 kg, bullish. [5] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, bullish. [5] - Main position: The main net position is long, and the main long position is increasing, bullish. [5] 5. Position Data - **Gold** - On January 2, 2026, the long position volume was 190,383, a decrease of 6,317 or 3.21% compared to January 1. The short position volume was 81,508, a decrease of 4,693 or 5.44%. The net position was 108,875, a decrease of 1,624 or 1.47%. [31] - **Silver** - On January 2, 2026, the long position volume was 321,934, a decrease of 21,801 or 6.34% compared to January 1. The short position volume was 265,911, a decrease of 9,418 or 3.42%. The net position was 56,023, a decrease of 12,383 or 18.10%. [34]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the precious metals market's "bull market is not over." The long - term support for gold comes from the contraction of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases and Fed rate cuts. Silver will show greater elasticity due to the global fiscal resonance - driven recovery. The market will likely feature a stable gold center and expanding silver elasticity. Investors should focus on three time windows and beware of policy disturbances [4] - Consider buying out - of - the - money call options of silver option contract 01 to trade the "end - of - contract" market, and continue to pay attention to silver call option building opportunities during the index adjustment period [1][2] - Given the strong fundamental and relatively larger upside potential for palladium, consider buying out - of - the - money call options of palladium contract 06 instead of holding futures [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Silver Options - Silver option 01 contract at - the - money option implied volatility is around 38%, and contract 02 is around 46%. Due to profit - taking and approaching expiration, implied volatility is low in the near - term and high in the far - term. One can buy out - of - the - money call options of contract 01 for the "end - of - contract" market [1] - The European silver lease rate is about 2%, but the 1 - 3 - month rate has risen to around 7%. Around January 8 - 15, there will be about $5 billion in gold and nearly $4 billion in silver sales due to index weight adjustments. This situation corresponds to the low - near - high - far implied volatility of silver options [2] Precious Metals Market in 2026 - The precious metals market in 2026 is expected to have a stable gold center and expanding silver elasticity. Investors should focus on three time windows and beware of policy disturbances [4] Platinum and Palladium Options - The liquidity of platinum and palladium far - month option contracts is insufficient. The market focuses on three out - of - the - money call option contracts. Palladium's implied volatility is higher than platinum's, corresponding to its greater upside potential. After the limit - up on December 12, the implied volatility of their option contracts increased slightly. One can consider buying out - of - the - money call options of palladium contract 06 instead of futures [7]