| 1月8日 | 收盘价（元/千克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 18450 | -5.90% | 2142360 | 281631 | 美国务卿称下周将与丹麦举行会晤，讨论格陵兰岛议题。 美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，低于市场预期的中值4.7万人。 【白银期货最新行情】 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 数据显示，1月8日上海白银现货价格报价19420元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（18450元/千克）升水 970元/千克。 彭博大宗商品指数(BCOM)将进行为期一周的年度再平衡调整（2026年1月9日至15日）。这场牵动全球 大宗商品市场神经的指数权重调整，将令超过140亿美元的贵金属卖盘涌入市场。根据彭博公布的2026 年权重配置，白银权重将从目前市场权重的9.6%大幅下调至3.94%，意味着追踪该指数的基金和ETF将 被迫抛售大量白银头寸。 泽连斯基称有望在2026年上半年结束俄乌冲突。 【机构观点】 金属全面下撤，市场情绪降温，沪银冲高回落。沪银溢价收敛至1400元/克，国内有所降温 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年1月5日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：芝商所再提高保证金，元旦期间美国空袭委内瑞拉，金价早间反弹；美 国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘小幅上涨；美债收益率多数上涨，10 年期美债收益率涨1.38个基点报4.191%；美元指数涨0.21%报98.46，离岸人民币对 美元升值报6.9699；COMEX黄金期货涨0.02%报4341.90美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货984.84，现货980.75，基差-5.09，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单97704千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the precious metals market's "bull market is not over." The long - term support for gold comes from the contraction of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases and Fed rate cuts. Silver will show greater elasticity due to the global fiscal resonance - driven recovery. The market will likely feature a stable gold center and expanding silver elasticity. Investors should focus on three time windows and beware of policy disturbances [4] - Consider buying out - of - the - money call options of silver option contract 01 to trade the "end - of - contract" market, and continue to pay attention to silver call option building opportunities during the index adjustment period [1][2] - Given the strong fundamental and relatively larger upside potential for palladium, consider buying out - of - the - money call options of palladium contract 06 instead of holding futures [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Silver Options - Silver option 01 contract at - the - money option implied volatility is around 38%, and contract 02 is around 46%. Due to profit - taking and approaching expiration, implied volatility is low in the near - term and high in the far - term. One can buy out - of - the - money call options of contract 01 for the "end - of - contract" market [1] - The European silver lease rate is about 2%, but the 1 - 3 - month rate has risen to around 7%. Around January 8 - 15, there will be about $5 billion in gold and nearly $4 billion in silver sales due to index weight adjustments. This situation corresponds to the low - near - high - far implied volatility of silver options [2] Precious Metals Market in 2026 - The precious metals market in 2026 is expected to have a stable gold center and expanding silver elasticity. Investors should focus on three time windows and beware of policy disturbances [4] Platinum and Palladium Options - The liquidity of platinum and palladium far - month option contracts is insufficient. The market focuses on three out - of - the - money call option contracts. Palladium's implied volatility is higher than platinum's, corresponding to its greater upside potential. After the limit - up on December 12, the implied volatility of their option contracts increased slightly. One can consider buying out - of - the - money call options of palladium contract 06 instead of futures [7]