摘要 事件： 10月，社零当月同比2.9%、预期2.7%、前值3%；固定资产投资累计同比-1.7%、预期-0.7%、前 值-0.5%；房地产开发投资累计同比-14.7%、预期-14.5%、前值-13.9%；新建商品房销售面积累计同 比-6.8%、前值-5.5%；工业增加值当月同比4.9%、前值6.5%。 核心观点：难点在商品需求透支与清账拖累投资，亮点在服务消费恢复与化债扰动缓解。 生产：工作日天数同比减少以及前期高库存约束生产，工业增加值增速明显回落，供给扰动也会拖累固 定投资。 10月工作日天数仅18天、同比较前月减少3天，对供给拖累较大；9月制造业存在 "补库存抢生 产"现象，10月明显退坡；拆分结构看， 9月生产走强的食品、酒和饮料等行业10月生产增速回落明显， 投资下行也拖累上中游生产。 社零：电商促销前置但"以旧换新"商品消费退坡；工作日同比减少支撑服务消费韧性。 10月社零偏弱主 要源于商品零售拖累。虽然电商促销前置拉动通讯器材、纺织服装零售改善，但 "以旧换新"商品如汽车 （-8.2pct至-6.6%）、家电（-17.9pct至-14.6%）降幅较明显。服务消费表现稳健，餐饮收入（+2.9pc ...

Core Viewpoints - The challenges lie in the overspending of consumer demand and the impact of clearing accounts on investment, while the highlights are the recovery of service consumption and the alleviation of debt issues [2][66] Production - The number of working days in October decreased year-on-year, and high inventory from previous periods constrained production, leading to a significant decline in industrial value-added growth, which fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.9% [2][9] - The manufacturing sector experienced a notable decline in production growth, with a drop of 2.4 percentage points to 4.9% in October [9][33] Retail Sales - The retail sales growth in October was slightly down, primarily due to a significant decline in goods retail, which fell by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8%, while catering revenue improved by 2.9 percentage points to 3.8% [6][52] - The "old-for-new" consumption model, particularly in automobiles and home appliances, saw notable declines, with automobiles down by 8.2 percentage points to -6.6% and home appliances down by 17.9 percentage points to -14.6% [2][17] Investment - Fixed asset investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.6 percentage points to -10.7% in October, influenced by land acquisition costs and corporate account clearing [3][19] - The construction and installation investment growth rate remained stable, showing no further significant decline, while manufacturing and service sector investments saw substantial decreases [3][67] Real Estate - The demand side for real estate remains weak, with sales and housing prices showing downward trends, while the supply side also experienced significant declines in investment, new starts, and completions [3][24] - The average price of new homes in 70 cities continued to decline, with sales area and sales amount down by 15.1 percentage points and 17.1 percentage points, respectively, to -25.6% and -28.9% [3][24] Summary - Short-term factors are disrupting the economy, but their impact is weakening at the margin; policies are actively countering these effects, and the economy is expected to maintain resilience in the fourth quarter [4][68] - The potential risks for the economy include overspending in consumer demand and the impact of inter-company account clearing on investment, alongside structural highlights such as the alleviation of debt issues [4][68]

国 内 经 济 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 研究支持 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 14 日 经济的难点与亮点？ —— 10 月经济数据点评 事件：10 月，社零当月同比 2.9%、预期 2.7%、前值 3%；固定资产投资累计同比-1.7%、 预期-0.7%、前值-0.5%；房地产开发投资累计同比-14.7%、预期-14.5%、前值-13.9%； 新建商品房销售面积累计同比-6.8%、前值-5.5%；工业增加值当月同比 4.9%、前值 6.5%。 ⚫ 核心观点：难点在商品需求透支与清账拖累投资，亮点在服务消费恢复与化债扰动缓解。 生产：工作日天数同比减少以及前期高库存约束生产，工业增加值增速明显回落，供 ...