2026 年度固收策略电话会议 20251230 摘要 预计 2026 年货币政策适度宽松，或有一次降息，时间窗口可能在春节 后一季度内，但 1 月降息概率较低。央行可能通过买断式逆回购或降准 保持资金宽松，以支持政府债券发行。 2026 年通胀预计回升，CPI 均值约 0.5%，PPI 均值约-1.1%，GDP 平 减指数约 0.3%，将使 10 年国债中枢上升近 10BP。若央行降息 10BP，全年利率中枢大致维持在当前 1.8-1.85%水平。 2026 年债券投资可采用 2-3 年信用套息策略，净 carry 约为 40BP 以 上，加上少量杠杆，预计回报可达 2-2.1%。关注低频、高胜率、高赔 率的单边策略，如降息预期升温时关注 5 年和 10 年利率债。 短期内关注短端国债、政金债和存单，重点关注两三年信用债和 5 年国 开债。若央行超预期降息或买债规模提高，可考虑持有长端活跃券，否 则进行短期高频交易。 预计 2026 年财政规模扩张，但幅度小于前一年。政府债供给压力集中 在 1-3 月、5-6 月和 8-9 月，央行可能在 1-2 月、5 月和 8 月保持流动 性支持。4-5 月和 7 月或 ...

受万科债波动和债市整体疲软影响，部分知名债券私募业绩近期突发回撤，个别明星私募甚至跌幅居前。 当前，业内仍在密切关注万科后续兑付安排，面对新形势，不少债券私募管理人积极应对，通过加强精细化管理能力来打造自身竞争力。 明星债券私募业绩突然回撤 三方机构数据显示，多家知名债券私募旗下产品近期突发大幅回撤。北京某中型债券私募产品净值连续三周下挫，近半年收益已经转负。 另一上海百亿债券私募旗下多只产品最近更是呈现断崖式下跌。今年5月成立的产品，目前亏损已超2%，近两周回撤超过5%，相比管理人过往的稳健业绩，显得相 当突兀。 有大型债券私募人士向券商中国记者表示，从今年的市场环境看，固收策略整体都处在一个相对"吃力"的阶段：十年期国债收益率大部分时间停留在1.6%—1.9%的 窄区间内震荡，无风险利率处于历史偏低位置，利率债既缺乏足够的下行空间，交易盘也难以频繁博取价差；信用利差同样压缩在低位，传统通过"拉久期、下沉资 质"获取超额收益的模式性价比明显下降，中长期纯债产品今年以来的平均收益更多只是略高于无风险利率，与很多投资者过去对"稳中有攻"的预期存在差距。 不过，也有行业人士指出，近期债市的波动应被视为独立信用事件 ...

Summary of China Life Insurance Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Life Insurance - **Focus**: Insurance products and investment strategies for 2026 Key Points Product Strategy for 2026 - The product strategy will focus on diversified participating insurance, including whole life insurance, participating annuities, and participating retirement annuities [2][4] - The plan is to launch large-scale products first, followed by 10-year premium payment products [2][4] - The individual insurance channel's share of participating insurance is expected to increase due to a decrease in the preset interest rate [2][7] Distribution Channels - The bancassurance channel is projected to maintain high growth rates, becoming a significant driver for business development [2][5][13] - Collaboration with major banks and financial institutions will be deepened to expand business mechanisms [2][13][14] Investment Strategy - The proportion of equity investments increased significantly in the first three quarters, with a potential for further growth, but caution is advised regarding style switching and market rhythm [2][16] - A high dividend portfolio is targeted, with a required dividend yield of 4.5% and an annualized total return of no less than 6% over a three-year rolling period [2][17] Individual Agent Development - The quality of the personal agent team is being enhanced through strict assessments and improved recruitment standards [2][9][10] - The core team has shown stable performance, with increased productivity and income, leading to improved retention rates [2][10][11] Health Insurance Outlook - The insurance product structure is balanced, with approximately one-third in savings insurance, health insurance, and other types [2][11] - Long-term prospects for health insurance are positive, although short-term growth may be limited due to policy constraints [2][11][12] Regulatory and Market Considerations - The company is preparing for the 2026 business landscape by gathering market feedback and training agents [4][5] - The focus will be on risk management and preventing interest rate risks while increasing the share of participating insurance [8][11] Future Projections - The company maintains confidence in the growth of both scale and value for 2026, supported by the performance of individual and bancassurance channels [5][6] - The expected range for domestic interest rates is between 1.6% and 2.1%, influencing fixed-income strategies [3][25] Capital Management - Currently, the company has a sufficient solvency margin and is flexible regarding capital replenishment plans [28] - The dividend strategy aims for stability and growth, rather than direct linkage to net profit fluctuations [28] Conclusion - China Life Insurance is strategically positioning itself for 2026 with a focus on diversified products, strong distribution channels, and a robust investment strategy while maintaining a balanced approach to risk management and regulatory compliance [2][4][5][6][11][28]