证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|阳光保险（06963） 阳光保险 2025 年半年报点评：利润稳 健增长，分红险转型成效显现 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年08月25日 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 证券研究报告 |报告要点 阳光保险发布 2025 年半年报， 2025H1 公司实现总保费收入 808.1 亿元，同比+5.7%；保险服 务收入为 324.4 亿元，同比+3.0%；归母净利润 33.9 亿元，同比+7.8%。考虑到公司坚持价值 发展理念、DPS 有望稳健增长，我们看好公司后续投资价值，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 刘雨辰 朱丽芳 SAC：S0590522100001 SAC：S0590524080001 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2025年08月25日 阳光保险(06963) 阳光保险 2025 年半年报点评：利润稳健增 长，分红险转型成效显现 | 行 业： | 非银金融/保险Ⅱ | | --- | --- | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 4.48 港元 | 基本数据 | 总股本/流通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Taiping Life Insurance has gained a competitive edge in the dividend insurance market due to its early strategic positioning and proactive measures, despite facing challenges in maintaining long-term competitiveness and customer base [3][4][22]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The adjustment of the guaranteed interest rate for life insurance, effective July 25, has created both challenges and opportunities for the life insurance industry, with dividend insurance emerging as a key growth area [4][5]. - The potential increase in dividend insurance new business premium share to 50% over the next three years could lead to an incremental premium exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan [5]. - Major insurance companies, including China Life and Ping An, have set ambitious targets for dividend insurance, indicating a strong industry shift towards this product type [5][6]. Group 2: Taiping Life's Strategy - Taiping Life has achieved a remarkable 98.9% share of dividend insurance in its individual insurance channel and over 90% across all channels, thanks to its early strategic foresight and decisive execution [6][11]. - The company has implemented an "internal and external" strategy to promote dividend insurance, enhancing its importance in performance evaluations and incentivizing sales teams [7][10]. - Taiping Life's asset allocation strategy includes a significant increase in long-term bonds, with a target of 74.5% in bond allocation by 2024, positioning itself for higher floating returns [10][11]. Group 3: Competitive Challenges - Despite its current lead, Taiping Life faces significant challenges, including a notable decline in individual life insurance customers, with a drop from 15.17 million to 13.91 million, representing an 8.3% decrease [14][16]. - The company's agent workforce has also contracted, with a reduction of 8,613 agents, or 3.7%, which may weaken its sales foundation [14][16]. - Frequent management changes within Taiping Life could disrupt strategic execution and decision-making during a critical transformation period [18][22]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The competition in the dividend insurance sector is expected to intensify, potentially leading to a market structure similar to Hong Kong, where a few companies dominate the market [20][22]. - The unique mechanisms of dividend insurance present dual challenges in sales and investment, requiring strong capabilities to manage customer expectations and investment returns [21][22].

Core Insights - The report from UBS highlights a significant shift in the Chinese insurance industry, particularly with the adjustment of the pricing interest rate benchmark, which may signal the end of the traditional whole life insurance era and present opportunities for participating insurance products [1][2]. Pricing Interest Rate Adjustment - The China Insurance Industry Association has lowered the pricing interest rate (PIR) benchmark by 14 basis points to 1.99%, which is 51 basis points lower than the current rate of 2.5% for traditional products [2]. - Major insurance companies have announced reductions in the pricing interest rates for traditional, participating, and universal products by 50, 25, and 50 basis points respectively, resulting in rates of 2.0%, 1.75%, and 1.0% [2]. - The narrowing gap between the pricing interest rates of traditional and participating products indicates a regulatory focus on participating insurance contracts to mitigate interest margin loss risks [2]. Transition from Traditional to Participating Insurance - The reduction in the pricing interest rate may indicate the end of the golden era for traditional whole life insurance (IWLP), which, despite strong consumer demand, poses higher interest rate risks for insurance companies [3]. - Participating insurance products are expected to become more attractive in both the Hong Kong and mainland markets, with a pricing interest rate of 2.0% yielding an internal rate of return (IRR) of 1.6%-1.9% [3]. - UBS estimates that as most insurance companies accelerate their transition to participating insurance, the interest rate sensitivity of new business value (VNB) will significantly decrease by the first half of 2025 [3]. Winning Factors in Participating Insurance - The regulatory guidelines issued by the National Financial Regulatory Administration in June 2025 allow financially sound insurance companies to offer more competitive dividend yields on participating insurance [4]. - Key levers for exceeding the dividend payout cap include maintaining a 3-year average comprehensive investment return above the industry average (3.2%), having a regulatory rating of 1-3, ensuring the participating insurance account has been active for over 3 years, and maintaining a positive special reserve balance [4]. - Companies with stronger fulfillment rates, distribution capabilities, and faster transitions to participating insurance products are likely to gain competitive advantages [4]. Potential Winners in Participating Insurance - AIA China is positioned favorably to capitalize on the opportunities in participating insurance due to its strong investment capabilities, with an average comprehensive investment return of 4.8% from 2021 to 2024, compared to the industry average of 4% [5]. - AIA China has also demonstrated high productivity among agents, with a new business value of 13,000 RMB per agent per month in 2024, significantly higher than the 1,800-5,700 RMB range of listed peers [5]. - The company began its transition to participating insurance early, with over 80% of its new business value from long-term savings coming from participating products in the first quarter of 2025 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is set at 1.99%, triggering a downward adjustment in the maximum allowable rates for various insurance products [1][3][7]. Summary by Sections Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustments - The China Insurance Industry Association announced that the maximum predetermined interest rates for new insurance products will be adjusted: ordinary life insurance to 2.0%, participating insurance to 1.75%, and universal insurance to a minimum guaranteed rate of 1.0% [1][7]. - As of August 31, 2025, insurance companies will no longer accept applications for products with rates exceeding these new maximums [2][8]. Historical Context and Mechanism - The predetermined interest rate research value has been linked to market interest rates, including the 5-year loan market quotation rate (LPR) and 10-year government bond yields [3][5]. - The recent adjustment marks a significant historical low for predetermined interest rates, with the previous values being 2.34% in January and 2.13% in April of the same year [3][5][7]. Market Reactions and Future Implications - Major insurance companies, including China Life and Ping An Life, have responded to the new research value by adjusting their product offerings accordingly [1][7]. - The insurance industry is expected to continue transitioning towards participating insurance products, as the 2% predetermined interest rate is seen as a critical threshold for sales performance [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][14]. Core Insights - The report forecasts a year-on-year increase of 12.1% in net profit attributable to shareholders for A-share listed insurance companies in the first half of 2025, reaching approximately 192.63 billion yuan [3]. - The report highlights strong growth in new business value (NBV) for listed insurance companies, with significant contributions from dividend insurance products, particularly from companies like Xinhua Insurance and China Life [4]. - The report anticipates continued improvement in the combined ratio (COR) for property and casualty insurance companies, driven by effective risk control and cost reduction strategies [5]. - The investment environment is expected to improve, with a downward trend in long-term interest rates, which may alleviate pressure on the fair value of bonds [6]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The report predicts robust NBV growth for listed insurance companies in 1H25, with Xinhua Insurance expected to grow by 50.1% year-on-year and China Life by 10.9% [4]. - The transition to dividend insurance has become a strategic focus for several companies, with notable increases in the proportion of dividend insurance products [4]. Property and Casualty Insurance - The report notes a 5.2% year-on-year increase in original insurance premium income for property and casualty insurance companies in the first five months of 2025, alongside a 2.3% decrease in claims [5]. - The report expects the COR for major companies to show continued improvement, with estimates of 94.7% for China Property & Casualty and 97.3% for China Ping An [5]. Investment Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of undervalued stocks and mid-year performance, suggesting that the anticipated reduction in interest rates could optimize new liability costs [6]. - Companies recommended for investment include Xinhua Insurance, China Life (H), China Pacific Insurance, ZhongAn Online, China Property & Casualty (H), and China Ping An [6].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing a shift towards dividend insurance products due to declining interest rates and regulatory changes, with companies focusing on enhancing their offerings in this area to meet customer demand for stable returns [2][4][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - The decline in deposit rates has led customers to seek alternative investment options, such as dividend insurance products, which offer both protection and potential returns [2][4]. - Since the second half of last year, insurance companies have adjusted their product offerings, prioritizing dividend insurance over other types like endowment and annuity products [4][6]. - The market for dividend insurance is expected to grow, with several major insurance companies reporting increases in premium income from these products in 2024 [7][8]. Group 2: Sales Challenges - Sales representatives are facing difficulties in promoting dividend insurance due to customer skepticism and the complexity of explaining the product's benefits and mechanisms [5][6]. - The shift from traditional fixed-return products to dividend insurance requires agents to adapt their sales strategies, which has resulted in a decline in performance for some agents [4][5]. - The insurance industry is under pressure to improve sales techniques and customer education regarding dividend insurance to address concerns about future returns [6][8]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies are increasing scrutiny on dividend insurance products, emphasizing the need for transparency in dividend distribution and sales practices [14][15]. - New regulations aim to ensure that insurance companies do not overpromise returns and that they align dividend levels with actual business performance [15][16]. - The industry is moving towards a more structured approach to product offerings, with a focus on balancing guaranteed returns and variable dividends to enhance customer trust [14][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The insurance sector is expected to continue its transition towards dividend insurance as a key product offering, with a consensus among industry experts on its importance for sustainable growth [8][16]. - Companies with strong asset-liability management capabilities are likely to perform better in the dividend insurance market, as they can effectively manage the associated risks [9][16]. - The overall success of this transition will depend on the industry's ability to standardize product offerings and improve communication with customers regarding the nature of dividend insurance [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changes in dividend insurance premiums among 71 life insurance companies over the past decade (2013-2023), highlighting the growth of certain companies and the overall industry trend towards dividend insurance products. Group 1: Dividend Insurance Premiums Overview - In the past decade, the top companies in dividend insurance premiums include Taikang Life with over 100 billion, China Life, Ping An, and Taibao with over 50 billion each [1][16]. - Taikang Life has consistently focused on dividend insurance, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 8% in this segment [20][21]. - AIA's dividend insurance premiums reached 13.1 billion, with companies like Zhonghong and MetLife also experiencing rapid growth [29][30]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Company Performance - The "old six" companies have a solid foundation for developing dividend insurance, with Taikang leading in premium scale [16][20]. - In 2024, companies like Ping An and Xinhua are expected to ramp up their efforts in dividend insurance, with new policies showing rapid growth [38][27]. - The overall industry dividend insurance premium is projected to exceed 50% of the market share again, reflecting a shift back towards these products [45][46]. Group 3: Growth Rates and Future Prospects - The article notes that the dividend insurance market has seen a decline in the past but is now experiencing a resurgence, with new products entering the market and achieving significant sales [38][42]. - Companies such as Zhongyou and Zhongyi are expected to make significant contributions in 2024, with new products already showing strong sales [40][43]. - The industry anticipates that the business share of dividend insurance will surpass 50% in the near future, driven by changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [45][49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with expectations of exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Views - The report highlights a rapid growth in life insurance and stable growth in property insurance, with a recommendation order of China Pacific Insurance H, China Life H, Ping An H, and China Property H [2]. - The life insurance sector is experiencing a significant increase in premium income, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% in the first five months of 2025, driven by a recovery in life insurance premiums [7]. - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 38.42 trillion yuan by the end of May 2025, reflecting a 7% increase from the previous year [7]. Summary by Sections Key Company Earnings Forecast, Valuation, and Investment Ratings - China Pacific Insurance: - Stock Price: 36.96 yuan - EPS (2025E): 4.87 yuan, PE (2025E): 7.58, PB: 1.08, Rating: Recommended - New China Life: - Stock Price: 58.53 yuan - EPS (2025E): 6.39 yuan, PE (2025E): 9.15, PB: 2.09, Rating: Recommended - China Life: - Stock Price: 41.16 yuan - EPS (2025E): 3.09 yuan, PE (2025E): 13.31, PB: 2.27, Rating: Recommended - Ping An: - Stock Price: 56.96 yuan - EPS (2025E): 7.56 yuan, PE (2025E): 7.53, PB: 1.11, Rating: Strongly Recommended - China Property: - Stock Price: 8.76 yuan - EPS (2025E): 1.05 yuan, PE (2025E): 8.36, PB: 1.36, Rating: Recommended [3]. Industry Basic Data - Total Market Value: 3,139.625 billion yuan - Circulating Market Value: 2,168.525 billion yuan - Number of Stocks: 6 [4]. Premium Income and Growth - The insurance industry achieved original premium income of 30,602 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [7]. - Life insurance premiums reached 18,735 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [7]. - Property insurance premiums totaled 6,129 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [7]. Asset Changes - As of May 2025, the total assets of the insurance industry reached 38.42 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is shifting focus towards dividend insurance products, with companies planning to adjust their product pricing and marketing strategies in the upcoming third quarter to enhance sales and sustainability [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Multiple insurance companies are set to accelerate the replacement of traditional insurance with dividend insurance, aiming for a target where dividend insurance constitutes at least 30% of their business by 2025 [1]. - The recent regulatory guidance emphasizes sustainable operations and comprehensive services rather than merely competing on yield, marking a significant shift in the industry’s approach to product offerings [1][2]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - Financial regulators have issued guidelines to enhance the sustainable operation of dividend insurance, focusing on dynamic constraints to prevent companies from overextending future payouts [3][4]. - Insurers are required to balance the predetermined rates of dividend insurance with actual investment returns and ensure that the proposed dividend levels are justifiable and sustainable [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The adjustment of guaranteed rates for traditional insurance products from 2.5% to 2% and for dividend insurance from 2% to 1.5% is expected to shift consumer preference towards more flexible dividend products [2]. - The ability of insurers to provide dividends is influenced by their investment performance and the historical burden of high-rate policies, which can affect current dividend levels [5][6]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Insurers with strong ratings and robust investment performance are likely to gain a competitive edge in the dividend insurance market, while smaller firms may face increased challenges in a landscape where yield competition is curtailed [6]. - The dynamic regulatory framework allows for some flexibility in dividend distribution, enabling companies to align their offerings with actual capabilities and market conditions [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in subscription certificates for China Ping An and AIA Insurance is driven by regulatory changes and a shift in consumer wealth towards dividend insurance products, indicating a potential positive outlook for leading companies in the insurance sector [2][8][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - China Ping An's subscription certificates saw significant increases, with Ping An Zhongyin 57 Purchase C rising by 138%, and several others doubling in value [2][4]. - AIA Insurance's subscription certificates also experienced substantial gains, with AIA Fa Ba 57 Purchase rising over 270% [2][4]. - The stock of China Ping An in the Hong Kong market has shown a continuous upward trend, increasing by over 3% on the same day [2][4]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice regarding the dividend levels for 2024, urging insurance companies to enhance their asset-liability management and improve the sustainability of dividend insurance [8][10]. - This regulatory guidance is expected to benefit leading insurance companies, as it aims to standardize the floating cost levels of dividend insurance and encourage prudent determination of dividend levels [10][12]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The low interest rate environment is prompting a shift in consumer wealth from savings deposits to dividend insurance, creating a supportive capital market chain [12]. - The transition towards dividend insurance is seen as a significant change in the business model of insurance companies, with a potential shift in valuation metrics from Price-to-Book (PB) to Price-to-Earnings Value (PEV) [12]. - The insurance industry is expected to experience a new cycle of development, with a focus on enhancing the attractiveness of products through improved asset management capabilities [11][12].