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开源证券:保险占居民理财比重有望持续提升 行业有望步入黄金发展周期
智通财经网· 2026-01-07 03:49
智通财经APP获悉,开源证券发布研报称,随着分红险转型提升产品吸引力,以及养老、健康保障需求 持续释放,保险产品在收益率稳定性和长期保障方面的优势日益凸显。预计保险资产占居民存款及固收 类理财比重将持续上升,推动行业负债端新单保费与资产端投资回报同步改善,行业有望步入"黄金发 展周期"。 开源证券主要观点如下: 流量和存量视角看,保险资产占居民存款及固收类理财资产比重持续提升从历史数据看,保险资产占居 民存款及固收类理财资产比重持续提升 流量数据看,总保费占比从2022年的15.8%提升到2025年的22.4%(1-11月数据),3年累计提升6.6pct。 保费存量规模占比提升开始于2023年12月,2023年12月至2025年11月,居民存款占比从66.2%下降1.7个 百分点至64.5%,保费存量规模占比从12.5%上升1.6个百分点至14.1%。该行认为,主要原因包括: (1)保险产品具有相对稳定和较高的收益率:存款利率持续回落、理财和债基收益率波动较大,保险 产品收益率具有优势。从利率调降节奏看,相较于定期存款利率,保险预定利率调降速度和幅度均相对 落后。同时,相较于银行理财和债基,保险收益率稳定性较 ...
行业深度报告:储蓄和保障双重优势,保险占居民理财比重有望持续提升
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-01-06 11:15
保险Ⅱ 2026 年 01 月 06 日 投资评级:看好(维持) 行业走势图 数据来源:聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 2026-01 保险Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究报告 《拓宽产品形态和功能,健康险有望 迎来增长新机遇—"健康险高质量发 展意见"点评》-2025.10.8 zhangenqi@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790125080012 储蓄和保障双重优势,保险占居民理财比重有望持续提升 (1)向后展望,分红险转型增加保险产品吸引力, 养老和健康保障需求持续释 放,大额存单供给进一步收缩,债市波动下,保险产品稳定回报率的性价比优势 继续凸显。在中长期维度,保险资产占居民存款和固收理财类资产比重有望持续 提升,带来保险新单保费和资产规模增速向好,保险行业迎来"黄金发展周期"。 (2)聚焦 2026 年,保险行业负债端看,分红险转型持续见效,个险新单有望企 稳回升,银保渠道在双向奔赴下,头部险企有望延续 2025 年较快增长态势。险 企新单保费增速有望明显扩张,利好险企 NBV 新业务价值增速改善。(3)资产 端看,长端利率中枢稳步 ...
保险证券ETF(515630)涨超3.2%,机构看好险企2026年负债端增速
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 06:07
保险证券ETF紧密跟踪中证800证券保险指数,中证800证券保险指数是在中证800指数的基础上,选择 证券保险行业内对应的证券作为指数样本,为投资者提供更多样化的投资标的。 数据显示,截至2025年12月31日,中证800证券保险指数(399966)前十大权重股分别为中国平安 (601318)、东方财富(300059)、中信证券(600030)、国泰海通(601211)、中国太保(601601)、华泰证券 (601688)、中国人寿(601628)、广发证券(000776)、招商证券(600999)、新华保险(601336),前十大权重 股合计占比64.71%。 MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错! 截至2026年1月6日 13:40,中证800证券保险指数(399966)强势上涨3.08%,成分股华林证券(002945)上涨 9.99%,华安证券(600909)上涨9.99%,国泰海通(601211)上涨5.88%,长江证券(000783),新华保险 (601336)等个股跟涨。保险证券ETF(515630)上涨3.22%,最新价报1.54元。 保险股开年大涨,消息面上,广东金融监管局发布《关于支持我省保 ...
保险行业2026年策略:资负两端全面改善,估值修复正当其时
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-31 15:27
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance industry, with expectations of double-digit growth in new premiums and net profit value (NBV) driven by the migration of deposits and improved margins [2][22]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from strong household savings demand, with insurance products becoming increasingly attractive as low-risk savings options amid declining bank deposit rates [2][22]. - The transition towards participating insurance products is anticipated to enhance market share for leading insurance companies, as they leverage their stronger investment capabilities and distribution channels [2][3]. - The report highlights a favorable market environment for insurance stocks, driven by high demand for new policies and a stable investment return outlook, which is expected to support valuation recovery [4][8]. Summary by Sections Liability Side Outlook - New business and NBV are projected to grow at double-digit rates, supported by strong household savings and a shift towards insurance products due to declining bank deposit rates [2][22]. - The insurance sector is expected to maintain stable margins despite the downward adjustment of preset interest rates and the transition to participating insurance [2][22]. Asset Side Outlook - Insurance funds are expected to actively enter the market, with a significant portion of new premiums allocated to equities, particularly in A-shares [3][16]. - The report anticipates a diversified approach to asset allocation, with a focus on high-dividend stocks and sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [3][19]. Market Performance Review - The insurance sector has outperformed the broader market, with significant gains in both A-shares and H-shares, indicating strong investor confidence [8][4]. - The report notes that the insurance index has increased by 27.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 18.2% [8]. Premium Income and Profitability - New premium income is expected to achieve double-digit growth, with specific companies like China Life and Ping An showing substantial increases in their new business premiums [14][32]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a favorable cost structure and investment returns to support profitability in the insurance sector [4][11].
太平财、寿险齐换“70后”舵手
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-26 11:58
来源:喻观财经 作者:俞燕 一年前的12月,中国太平保险集团有限责任公司(下称"中国太平",0966.HK)完成了掌舵者交接班, 时任中国太平总经理尹兆君接替到龄卸任的王思东,成为新掌门。 一年后的12月,中国太平最重要的两家子公司——太平人寿保险有限公司(下称"太平人寿")太平财产 保险有限公司(下称"太平财险"),亦完成舵手更替。 12月26日上午,中国太平召开会议宣布,太平人寿副总经理、临时负责人王旭泽任太平人寿党委书记, 并作为太平人寿总经理人选,太平财险副总经理彭云苹出任太平财险党委书记、拟任太平财险总经理。 10个月前(2月28日),太平人寿总经理程永红退休。次月,时任中国太平副总经理赵峰接替程永红出 任太平人寿党委书记,拟任太平人寿总经理。 然而到了5月20日,赵峰"空降"出任海南省政府党组成员、拟任副省长,挥别了中国太平,太平人寿总 经理之位再次面临补缺。6月23日,王旭泽担任太平人寿临时负责人,直至此次转正。 太平财险总经理此前由中国太平副总经理朱捷兼任。据了解,此番调整后,朱捷将不再兼任该职。 待相关程序完成后,王旭泽和彭云苹将分别正式担任太平人寿和太平财险总经理,中国太平的这两家子 公司 ...
固定收益点评:分红险复兴,如何影响保险配置偏好?
Guohai Securities· 2025-12-25 08:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report addresses the asset allocation characteristics of dividend - paying insurance and the impact of its transformation on the bond market [4][10] - In 2025, the transformation of dividend - paying insurance became an industry trend, with significant growth in scale. The income of ordinary dividend - paying insurance of six listed insurance companies in the first half of 2025 reached 157.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%, and its proportion in total life insurance income rose from 15% at the end of 2024 to 16.3% [5][11] - The rapid expansion of dividend - paying insurance meets the needs of both clients and insurance companies. For clients, it offers "certainty of guaranteed return + elastic dividend expectation"; for insurance companies, it helps prevent interest spread losses and reduces the impact of investment asset prices on financial statements [5][14][15] - Compared with ordinary life insurance, the asset allocation logic of dividend - paying insurance is more return - oriented, increasing the allocation of high - volatility assets [5] - The growth rate of insurance companies' bond allocation scale may slow down marginally, and their preference for equities will continue. In terms of specific bond types, insurance companies may increase trading demand for ultra - long - term treasury bonds and allocation demand for secondary perpetual bonds while maintaining the allocation of ultra - long - term local government bonds [5][20][22] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Dividend - paying Insurance Transformation Initiation - In 2025, major listed insurance companies placed dividend - paying insurance at the core of their products, driving it to dominate new business. The income of dividend - paying insurance of six listed insurance companies in the first half of the year increased significantly [11] - Each major insurance company has taken measures to promote dividend - paying insurance. For example, China Ping An focused on dividend - paying products, and China Pacific Insurance optimized its product structure with increased dividend - paying insurance new - policy premium [12] 3.2 Reasons for the Rapid Increase in Dividend - paying Insurance Scale - Client side: In the context of low - interest rates and expected stock market improvement, the "certainty of guaranteed return + elastic dividend expectation" of dividend - paying insurance meets clients' demand for more elastic returns [5][14] - Insurance company side: It can prevent interest spread losses and reduce the impact of investment asset price fluctuations on financial statements [5][15] 3.3 Differences in the Asset Allocation Logic of Dividend - paying Insurance - Accounting mechanism: Dividend - paying insurance uses the "floating fee method" for measurement, allowing its liability - side price to be linked to the asset - side. It has a return smoothing mechanism, giving its account a higher risk tolerance [5][16][17] - Business transformation: Higher and stable investment returns are crucial for attracting customers, fulfilling dividend promises, and promoting successful transformation [17] 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - Overall bond demand: The growth rate of insurance companies' bond allocation scale may slow down marginally, and their preference for equities will continue. In the first three quarters of 2025, the proportion of equity assets in insurance companies' new investments increased from 10.4% in 2024 to 39.9%, while the proportion of bonds decreased from 72.2% to 57.1% [20] - Specific bond types: Insurance companies may increase trading demand for ultra - long - term treasury bonds and allocation demand for secondary perpetual bonds while maintaining the allocation of ultra - long - term local government bonds [22]
非银金融行业周报:保险公司资负管理办法发布,明确监管指标和阈值-20251221
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-21 10:16
数据来源:聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 非银金融 沪深300 非银金融 2025 年 12 月 21 日 投资评级:看好(维持) 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《美联储降息利好券商海外业务,新 规规范基金销售 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 《券商杠杆上限有望松绑,险企调降 风 险 因 子 释 放 资 金 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.7 《监管态度转向积极,看好券商板块 行情—吴清主席在中证协大会的致辞 学习》-2025.12.7 保险公司资负管理办法发布,明确监管指标和阈值 ——行业周报 | 高超(分析师) 卢崑(分析师) | 张恩琦(联系人) | | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn lukun@kysec.cn | zhangenqi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号:S0790520050001 证书编号:S0790524040002 | 证书编号:S0790125080012 | | 周观点:保险公司资负管理办法发布,明确监管指标和阈值 | | 12 月 5 日至今 ...
中国太平20251217
2025-12-17 15:50
中国太平 20251217 摘要 太平人寿三季度调整投资策略,自 5 月起响应六部委号召,稳步提升 A 股权益规模,并得益于部分板块的投资收益。上半年净投资收益率为 3.11%,预计总投资收益率将反弹并可能超过去年水平。 2025 年太平人寿税率较 2024 年明显下降,有助于提升税后收益。公 司已全面采用新会计准则,但境内业务仍受旧准则影响,新旧准则过渡 期间的税率差异正在逐步解决。 香港火灾事件中,太平作为总部设在香港的金融央企承担重要社会责任, 参与了 20 亿港元保额的保单理赔。公司通过分保和再保分散风险,自 留额较低。 中国太平启动"开门红"活动,在分红险转型基础上进行产品多元化, 可能增加年金型分红险、保障类产品或传统险的比例,目标是与头部公 司对标并保持领先地位。 中国太平在银保渠道方面,2024 年受益于报行合一政策实现快速增长, 2025 年增速相对放缓但价值贡献显著提升。公司积极拓展与股份制银 行的合作,银保网点数量持续增长。 Q&A 公司在 2025 年第三季度的权益投资收益率是多少?利润相较于第二季度大幅 提升的主要原因是什么? 集团整体不发布三季报,但部分子公司根据偿付能力要求发布了 ...
中国平安(601318):“变革时代”的开拓者,“资负联动”的先行者
GF SECURITIES· 2025-12-16 10:30
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating to the company, with a current price of CNY 67.08 and HKD 65.25, and a reasonable value of CNY 85.17 and HKD 84.23 [4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pioneer in the "transformational era" and a leader in "asset-liability linkage," with significant growth potential in the bancassurance channel, which is expected to drive value growth [8][10]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the bancassurance channel, with a new business value (NBV) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.6% from 2020 to 2024, significantly outpacing the overall market [21][22]. - The company's investment strategy focuses on high dividend yields and stable long-term returns, with a net investment return rate superior to its peers [8][10]. Summary by Sections Liability Side: "Pioneer of the Transformational Era" - The company has consistently led changes in the liability side of the insurance industry, achieving a new business premium CAGR of 7.5% from 2010 to 2024, outperforming peers [15]. - The bancassurance channel is expected to become a core growth driver, with significant room for expansion as the company currently holds the lowest market share among peers in this segment [21][22]. Asset Side: "Leader in Asset Management" - The company has strategically increased its bond allocation since 2018, ensuring a good match between assets and liabilities [8][10]. - The focus on high dividend strategies has resulted in a net investment return rate that is among the highest in the industry, with an average dividend return rate of 5.8% over the past three years [8][10]. Operational Quality: Real Estate Exposure and Sector Performance - The company's real estate exposure has been reduced to 3.3% of its insurance funds, with sufficient provisions for asset impairments [8][10]. - The profitability of both life and property insurance segments is on the rise, supported by improved performance in asset management and technology sectors [8][10]. Valuation: Dividend Yield and Market Position - The company offers a favorable dividend yield, with stable operational profit growth and high dividends, while its current valuation is lower than that of its peers [8][10]. - The report notes that public fund holdings in the company are significantly lower than the benchmark index, indicating potential for reallocation [8][10]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of CNY 8.91, CNY 9.85, and CNY 10.55 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a reasonable valuation based on the embedded value method [8][10].
大额存单消失记:人身险开门红获最大助攻?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-05 10:14
原标题:杂谈丨大额存单消失记:人身险开门红获最大助攻? 来源:今日保 年底,门红期间,金融市场再传停售。 不过,这次停售的,终于不是保险产品了。 据多家媒体报道,六大国有行的手机App上,5年期大额存单已难觅踪影,部分大行甚至将3年期定存的 起售门槛从20万大幅拉升至100万元,而即便如此,给出的最高收益率也不过区区1.55%。 当然了,尽管大额存单中也有不少法人投资者,但无疑,5年期大额存单的退场及3年期门槛的大幅提 升,会将不少个人投资者挡在门外。 零碎的公开信息显示,2023年一季度,金融机构发行大额存单2.1万期,发行总量为5.5万亿元。截至 2023年9月末,大额存单余额23.5万亿元。 尽管2024年以来未见详细的信息报道,但规模绝不小。 由此溢出的庞大资金,必会寻求新的去向。 这一变化,对于正处于2026年"开门红"备战焦灼期的人身险行业而言,无疑是一次神助攻,而银保渠 道,或将再次证明自己,比个险更强更有价值。毕竟今年8月的那场战役,消耗了太多的资源和精力, 以至于9月如银保等渠道甚至出现停车的态势。 当然了,银行不卖5年期大额存单,盖因5年内,利率水平或许又将出现一个明显的下降。相当于提前给 ...