证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 10 12 年 月 日 钢铁 纷争的世界 行情回顾（10.9-10.10）： 中信钢铁指数报收 1,891.68 点，上涨 3.67%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.18pct，位列 30 个中信 一级板块涨跌幅榜第 3 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：节后两个交易日，市场有一些波动，商品先涨后跌。中美贸易摩擦似有烽烟再起 的苗头，造成工业金属有所回落，但黄金价格依然保持强势。黄金的强势本质是对美元信用 弱化的体现。康波萧条期中主导国会面临后发国工业化成熟期产业升级的压力，贸易摩擦加 剧。当较先进的发展中国家完全吸收本轮康波的技术革命，除非发生某些全球性灾难，经济 力量和政治影响的分配将会是 21 世纪上半叶全球竞争舞台的中心特征。上个世纪的历史表 明后发国达到技术成熟可能是一个危险的时代，这一时代注定了是一个冲突和对抗性增强的 世界。民粹主义和民族主义在全球泛起。由于这一切，导致领先国认为追赶国是威胁的看法 出现了，全球化发生逆转，各种"战争"加剧，从贸易和经济战扩展到技术和地缘政治战， 这两年又扩展到资本战。对于全球纷争管控方面我们并不具备判断 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the dynamics of the commodities market, particularly focusing on industrial metals and their pricing attributes influenced by both China and the United States [1][2][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Commodity Pricing Attributes**: Commodities are categorized into three types: - Financially driven gold - Physically driven base metals like steel - Copper, which has both attributes [5][2]. 2. **Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy**: Gold prices are primarily influenced by U.S. fiscal and monetary policies, while base metals are driven by supply and demand dynamics [5][2]. 3. **China's Role in Industrial Metals**: China dominates the demand for industrial metals, accounting for approximately half of global consumption, which significantly influences pricing [3][5]. 4. **U.S. Trade Deficit Challenges**: The U.S. faces a persistent trade deficit, which could be addressed by increasing total supply or reducing total demand, both of which are challenging [7][14]. 5. **Reindustrialization Difficulties in the U.S.**: The U.S. manufacturing sector has been declining, with its share of the economy dropping from nearly 30% in 1965 to about 10.2% in 2020, indicating significant challenges in reindustrialization [13][14]. 6. **China's Industrialization Stage**: China is in a mature industrialization phase, similar to Japan in 1976 and the U.S. in 1938, focusing on upgrading its manufacturing capabilities and shifting towards high-end exports [9][10]. 7. **Global Trade Dynamics**: The U.S.-China trade friction has led to a redistribution of global trade flows without altering overall supply and demand [6][7]. 8. **Debt Pressure Comparison**: There is a stark contrast in debt pressures between China and the U.S., with China experiencing lower debt pressure due to its industrial maturity, while the U.S. faces significant fiscal sustainability issues [15][21]. 9. **Fiscal Policy Implications**: The U.S. fiscal deficit is closely tied to its trade deficit, with high spending leading to increased imports. The fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected to be around $1.36 trillion [14][21]. 10. **Economic Transition in China**: China is transitioning from an investment-driven economy to a consumption-driven one, with significant implications for its economic structure and growth [40][41]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context of Industrialization**: The records draw parallels between current industrialization trends and historical examples from East Asia, emphasizing that merely absorbing low-end industries does not equate to full industrialization [12][9]. 2. **Service Sector Development**: The need for China to develop its service sector is highlighted as a crucial step in enhancing economic stability and consumer spending [3][34]. 3. **Copper Market Dynamics**: The copper market is characterized by limited new supply due to reduced capital expenditures by mining companies, leading to a significant supply-demand gap [46]. 4. **Long-term Economic Trends**: The records suggest that the current economic environment is influenced by long-term cycles, such as the Kondratiev wave, indicating that the global economy is still in a downturn phase [23][49]. 5. **Potential for AI and Technology**: While AI has the potential to drive economic recovery, its impact will depend on its application and the pace of technological diffusion [48]. 6. **Fiscal Tightening Effects**: The tightening of fiscal policies in China has led to reduced government spending, impacting various sectors and necessitating a careful balance to avoid stifling growth [38][39]. 7. **Consumer Behavior Insights**: Despite perceptions of weak consumer spending in China, household savings have significantly increased, indicating a potential for future consumption growth if income distribution issues are addressed [30][31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the commodities market and the broader economic landscape.