1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the fuel oil futures showed a downward trend after breaking through support levels, with overall trading sentiment being bearish. Affected by the significant decline in the international crude oil market and the weakening of the fundamental supply - demand structure, the price center of fuel oil futures has clearly shifted downward. The main trading logic this week revolved around increased global supply, slowing demand growth, and weakened cost support. Meanwhile, macro - risk events such as the "shutdown" of the US federal government further intensified market concerns [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market:** The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,781 yuan/ton this week, down 86 yuan/ton or 3% from the settlement price of the previous trading week. The highest price this week was 2,835 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,776 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 775,015 lots, and the open interest was 230,600 lots, a decrease of 4,649 lots [3] - **Variety Price:** The fuel oil futures contract prices presented a backwardation market pattern with near - term prices higher than long - term prices [7] 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data:** The fuel oil spot market performed poorly this week. The current basis level is in the lower range of recent months, indicating that the spot market faces greater price pressure compared to the futures market. The low basis level reflects that the spot market is more resistant to declines than the futures market and also shows the futures market's pessimistic expectation of the long - term fundamentals [9] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts:** This week, the changes in the fuel oil warehouse receipt data on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were limited, remaining generally stable. The low level of warehouse receipts helps reduce the physical delivery pressure on the futures market and provides some support for the prices of near - month contracts [11][12] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information:** The benchmark price of fuel oil is 5,363 yuan/ton, down nearly 2.1% compared to the beginning of this month. The benchmark price of fuel oil 380CST is 433 US dollars/ton, down 3.8% compared to the beginning of this month [13] 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the fuel oil market is expected to be mainly driven by geopolitical factors and crude oil costs. In terms of international supply, OPEC+ plans to expand the production increase scale in November, and the resumption of crude oil exports in the Kurdish region of Iraq, combined with the increased inflow of goods after the end of the summer electricity peak in the Middle East, clearly indicate an abundant supply pattern in the Asian fuel oil market. In the future, close attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff policies, the Fed's monetary policy (interest rate cut expectations), geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations that may affect the fuel oil market [14]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming adjustment of domestic fuel prices is expected to result in an increase, with predictions suggesting a rise of approximately 50 yuan per ton, influenced by a minimal price difference of just 10 yuan per ton [1][2]. Price Fluctuation Overview - The oil price trend in 2024 has been characterized as a "roller coaster," with a total of 6 price increases and 7 decreases, leading to an overall decline of about 400 yuan per ton [2][3]. - The year began with a slight increase in fuel prices, followed by a significant spike in mid-January, and then a series of declines starting in February, with the largest drop being 0.48 yuan per liter [3][5]. Recent Trends - In June, there were two quiet price increases, setting the stage for further fluctuations in the second half of the year [5]. - July and August saw a period of relative stability with slight decreases in prices, providing a brief respite for consumers [6]. International Market Influence - The direction of domestic fuel price adjustments is heavily influenced by international oil market dynamics, which have recently shown unexpected trends, including a slight decline in oil prices despite favorable news such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [8]. - Current regional price disparities are notable, with prices for 92-octane gasoline reaching 8.23 yuan per liter in Hainan, while in regions like Xinjiang and Ningxia, prices are below 7.1 yuan per liter [8]. Consumer Impact - The fluctuations in oil prices are not merely numerical; they significantly affect daily commuting costs and travel plans for consumers, making the cumulative costs of fuel a substantial expense for many households [9]. - The phenomenon of prices rising quickly but not falling at the same pace raises questions among consumers regarding the pricing mechanisms in place [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in domestic fuel prices in China are a direct response to fluctuations in international oil prices, which are influenced by various geopolitical and market factors [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that starting from June 3, 2025, the prices of gasoline and diesel will increase by 65 yuan and 60 yuan per ton, respectively [1]. - This price increase will raise costs for private car owners and logistics companies, with an estimated additional cost of approximately 2.5 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank in a standard private vehicle and an increase of 2 yuan for every 100 kilometers driven by a fully loaded 50-ton logistics vehicle [1]. Group 2: International Oil Market Dynamics - The "OPEC+" group, consisting of eight oil-producing countries, has decided to increase production by an average of 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, maintaining the same production increase as in May and June [2]. - The decision to adjust production is based on a stable market outlook and low oil inventories, with plans for flexible adjustments to maintain market stability [2]. - Despite the planned increase in production, the onset of the traditional U.S. fuel consumption season and uncertainties related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict are expected to provide support for international oil prices, indicating a high probability of further increases in domestic fuel prices in the next pricing cycle [2].