Core Insights - Saudi Arabia is expected to raise its official crude oil prices for Asian buyers for the second consecutive month, with September prices potentially reaching a five-month high [1] Pricing Expectations - The official price for Saudi Arabia's flagship Arab Light crude oil is projected to increase by 90 cents per barrel compared to August, reaching a range of $3.10 to $3.25 per barrel, marking the highest level since May of this year [1] - Other grades of crude oil, including Arab Extra Light, Medium, and Heavy, are anticipated to see price increases of 80 to 95 cents per barrel in September compared to August [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China will increase due to the fluctuations in international oil prices, effective from July 1 at 24:00 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - During the current fuel price adjustment cycle (from June 17 to June 30), international oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, with the average price exceeding that of the previous adjustment cycle [2]. - Starting from July 1 at 24:00, the price of gasoline will increase by 235 yuan per ton, while diesel will rise by 225 yuan per ton. On average, the prices for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel will increase by 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter, respectively [2]. - For example, filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan [2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China will increase due to the fluctuations in international oil prices, effective from July 1 at 24:00 [1][2]. Price Adjustment Summary - During the current pricing cycle (June 17 - June 30), international oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, with the average price exceeding that of the previous cycle [2]. - Starting from July 1 at 24:00, the price of gasoline will increase by 235 yuan per ton, while diesel will rise by 225 yuan per ton [2]. - On average, the prices for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel will increase by 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter, respectively [2]. - Consequently, filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan [2].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China will increase due to fluctuations in international oil prices, with the adjustment taking effect on July 1 at 24:00 [1] Price Adjustment Details - From July 1, gasoline prices will rise by 235 yuan per ton, while diesel prices will increase by 225 yuan per ton [1] - The average price increase for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel will be 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter, respectively [1] - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan [1]

Core Insights - The recent adjustment in domestic refined oil prices is due to a significant increase in international crude oil prices, with gasoline and diesel retail prices rising by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton respectively, effective from June 17 [1][2] - Factors contributing to the rise in international oil prices include improved macro risk appetite from US-China trade negotiations, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and a decrease in US crude oil inventories [1] Price Impact on Consumers - For consumers, the cost of driving will increase, with an additional 10 yuan required to fill a 50L tank of 92 gasoline [2] - For a small private car with a monthly distance of 2000 km and fuel consumption of 8L per 100 km, the fuel cost will rise by approximately 15 yuan before the next price adjustment [2] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 km monthly with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 km will see an increase in fuel costs of around 390 yuan [2] Future Price Expectations - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to keep oil prices strong in the short term, but there are concerns about potential price declines if the situation stabilizes [2] - The new pricing cycle is anticipated to start with a high positive change rate, indicating expectations for further increases in domestic refined oil retail prices, with the next adjustment window set for July 1 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in domestic fuel prices in China is a direct response to the significant rise in international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Effective from June 17, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively [1]. - The price adjustments translate to an increase of 0.2 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.21 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.22 yuan for 0-octane diesel [2]. Group 2: Impact of International Oil Prices - The international oil prices have seen a significant increase during the pricing cycle from June 3 to June 16, driven by improved macroeconomic sentiment and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [2][3]. - The average international oil price has risen notably, with the potential for further increases if geopolitical tensions escalate, particularly concerning Iran's oil exports [3]. Group 3: Demand Forecast Adjustments - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down to 720,000 barrels per day and 740,000 barrels per day, respectively [4]. - Despite the downward revision, the ongoing geopolitical instability and potential improvements in demand could support higher international oil prices in the near future [4].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices due to recent international oil price fluctuations, marking the twelfth adjustment of the year and the fifth increase, indicating a trend of "five increases, five decreases, and two stasis" in fuel price adjustments for the year [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Effective from June 17, 2025, gasoline and diesel prices will rise by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively [2]. - This translates to an increase of 0.20 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline and 0.22 yuan per liter for 0 diesel, resulting in an additional cost of approximately 10 yuan for filling a standard 50L private car fuel tank [2]. Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - During the price adjustment cycle from June 3 to June 16, international oil prices experienced significant increases driven by rising geopolitical risks [3]. - Key factors include escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, the EU's proposal to lower the price cap on Russian oil, and declining U.S. crude oil inventories and rig counts, which are expected to support higher oil prices [3]. - The NDRC's price monitoring center anticipates that geopolitical risks will continue to be a primary factor supporting international oil prices, with expectations of high-level fluctuations in the near term [3].

21世纪经济报道记者费心懿 上海报道 国家发展改革委今日消息，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，2025年6 月17日24时汽、柴油零售限价分别上调260元/吨、255元/吨，折升价92#汽油、95#汽油、0#柴油分别上 调0.20元、0.22元、0.22元。 本次上调落地之后，对于广大消费者来说，在下一轮调价周期内，居民驾车出行成本将有所增加。 按照油箱容量为50L的家用轿车为例，加满一箱92#汽油将多花10元。油耗方面，以月跑2000公里，百 公里油耗在8L的小型私家车为例，到下次调价窗口开启之前的时间内，消费者用油成本将增加15元左 右。物流行业以月跑10000公里，百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车 的燃油成本将增加390元左右。 本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格持续反弹，零售价上调预期利好市场。另外，计价周期初期，受端午小 长假提振，汽油需求有所提升，节后归来，下游用户补货增加，市场成交向好。柴油方面，受北方地区 夏收夏种影响，局部地区终端需求回暖，加之整体价格偏低，业者入市补货增加。市场整体购销气氛回 暖，汽柴油价格开始反弹。后期，随着节日影响消退， ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil retail price is expected to increase for the fourth time this year, influenced by various geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production plans [2] Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of June 2, the reference crude oil change rate is at 1.53%, leading to an expected increase of 65 yuan for gasoline and 60 yuan for diesel, translating to a rise of 0.05 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [2] - After this adjustment, the annual refined oil price changes will reflect "4 increases, 5 decreases, and 2 stasis," with cumulative reductions of 590 yuan/ton for gasoline and 570 yuan/ton for diesel [2] - The new retail prices for 92 and 95 gasoline will be approximately 6.93 yuan/liter and 7.43 yuan/liter, respectively, following the price increase [2] Group 2: Cost Implications - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92 gasoline will increase costs by 2.5 yuan, while a small private car with an 8L/100km fuel consumption will see an increase of about 4 yuan before the next price adjustment [3] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 km with a fuel consumption of 38L/100km will incur an additional fuel cost of approximately 89 yuan before the next price adjustment [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that despite OPEC+ maintaining significant production increases in June and July, the traditional peak season for fuel consumption in the U.S. and uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Iran situations will provide overall support for international oil prices [3] - The next price adjustment window is scheduled to open on June 17, 2025, at 24:00 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in domestic fuel prices in China are a direct response to fluctuations in international oil prices, which are influenced by various geopolitical and market factors [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that starting from June 3, 2025, the prices of gasoline and diesel will increase by 65 yuan and 60 yuan per ton, respectively [1]. - This price increase will raise costs for private car owners and logistics companies, with an estimated additional cost of approximately 2.5 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank in a standard private vehicle and an increase of 2 yuan for every 100 kilometers driven by a fully loaded 50-ton logistics vehicle [1]. Group 2: International Oil Market Dynamics - The "OPEC+" group, consisting of eight oil-producing countries, has decided to increase production by an average of 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, maintaining the same production increase as in May and June [2]. - The decision to adjust production is based on a stable market outlook and low oil inventories, with plans for flexible adjustments to maintain market stability [2]. - Despite the planned increase in production, the onset of the traditional U.S. fuel consumption season and uncertainties related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict are expected to provide support for international oil prices, indicating a high probability of further increases in domestic fuel prices in the next pricing cycle [2].