Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current price of manganese - silicon has limited room to decline further, but it may take some time to reverse the downward trend. It is still recommended to closely monitor the situation of the manganese ore end [2][10][11] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Current Market Situation of Manganese - Silicon - The current manganese - silicon futures price is still oscillating in the range of 5,600 - 6,000 yuan/ton. In the past week, the price has significantly dropped and approached the support level near 5,600 yuan/ton, showing obvious weakness [4] Factors Causing the Price Change - In the November macro - vacuum period, the overseas expectation of a December interest rate cut has significantly weakened, and the market's concern about the "AI narrative" bubble has increased, leading to a significant decline in the prices of US stocks, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals, which in turn has weakened the overall sentiment in the domestic A - share and commodity markets [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission's statement on suspected coal "supply guarantee" during the heating season has led to concerns about the relaxation of coal supply. Coupled with short - term unfalsifiable expectations such as Mongolian coal rushing to meet the quota in the fourth quarter and "poor - quality" coking coal warehouse receipts, funds have significantly increased short positions in coking coal, causing the coking coal price to drop by more than 14% in the past month, suppressing the risk appetite of the entire black metal sector [4] Fundamental Analysis - Although the supply of manganese - silicon has been continuously decreasing recently, the demand remains sluggish, the overall supply - demand structure remains loose, and the inventory of sample factories has continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in history [8] - The current cost of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia is close to 5,800 yuan/ton according to Steel Union statistics and close to 5,700 yuan/ton according to Ferro - Alloys Online statistics. The current futures price of around 5,600 yuan/ton has already reflected the loose fundamentals [8] Outlook for the Future - It is difficult for the current fundamentals to drive the price down significantly. A significant decline would require a macro "black swan" event or a collapse in coal prices similar to that in the first half of this year [2][10] - There is relatively limited room for the current price of manganese - silicon to decline further, but it may take some time to reverse the downward trend [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the fuel oil futures showed a downward trend after breaking through support levels, with overall trading sentiment being bearish. Affected by the significant decline in the international crude oil market and the weakening of the fundamental supply - demand structure, the price center of fuel oil futures has clearly shifted downward. The main trading logic this week revolved around increased global supply, slowing demand growth, and weakened cost support. Meanwhile, macro - risk events such as the "shutdown" of the US federal government further intensified market concerns [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market:** The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,781 yuan/ton this week, down 86 yuan/ton or 3% from the settlement price of the previous trading week. The highest price this week was 2,835 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,776 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 775,015 lots, and the open interest was 230,600 lots, a decrease of 4,649 lots [3] - **Variety Price:** The fuel oil futures contract prices presented a backwardation market pattern with near - term prices higher than long - term prices [7] 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data:** The fuel oil spot market performed poorly this week. The current basis level is in the lower range of recent months, indicating that the spot market faces greater price pressure compared to the futures market. The low basis level reflects that the spot market is more resistant to declines than the futures market and also shows the futures market's pessimistic expectation of the long - term fundamentals [9] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts:** This week, the changes in the fuel oil warehouse receipt data on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were limited, remaining generally stable. The low level of warehouse receipts helps reduce the physical delivery pressure on the futures market and provides some support for the prices of near - month contracts [11][12] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information:** The benchmark price of fuel oil is 5,363 yuan/ton, down nearly 2.1% compared to the beginning of this month. The benchmark price of fuel oil 380CST is 433 US dollars/ton, down 3.8% compared to the beginning of this month [13] 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the fuel oil market is expected to be mainly driven by geopolitical factors and crude oil costs. In terms of international supply, OPEC+ plans to expand the production increase scale in November, and the resumption of crude oil exports in the Kurdish region of Iraq, combined with the increased inflow of goods after the end of the summer electricity peak in the Middle East, clearly indicate an abundant supply pattern in the Asian fuel oil market. In the future, close attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff policies, the Fed's monetary policy (interest rate cut expectations), geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations that may affect the fuel oil market [14]