几乎同时，美国白宫发布第14178号行政命令，宣布建立数字资产市场总统工作组，同时全面禁止中央银行数字货币在美国境内发展。 数字围城 中国13部门联合"围剿"虚拟货币的会议，是一次高度协同的战略部署。会议通报的案例显示，2025年以来已查处涉虚拟货币洗钱案件150余起，涉案金额 超100亿元人民币，涉及地下钱庄、网络赌博、电信诈骗等多个领域。 潘功胜在2025金融街论坛年会上明确表示，稳定币已成为各国央行高度关注的风险点。数据显示，2025年全球虚拟货币市值波动幅度超过70%，稳定币虽 名为"稳定"，但其背后储备资产的透明度和安全性存疑。 中国央行数字货币研究所的压力测试表明，虚拟货币交易网络可以削弱现有资本管制效力30%以上。这一数字令决策层警觉，国际收支平衡和外汇储备安 全面临新的挑战。 美债之困 美国联邦债务正以每年近2万亿美元的速度增长，总额已突破37.2万亿美元。为消化巨额债务，美国正利用美元霸权寻找新"锚点"——从黄金到石油，再 到如今的稳定币。 特朗普政府推行的数字资产战略，正将私营稳定币体系转化为美元的新支柱。美国财政部数据显示，目前全球稳定币市值约2674亿美元，其中95%是美元 稳定币，这 ...

Core Insights - In Q3 2025, China's current account surplus was 1.3948 trillion yuan, driven by a goods trade surplus of 1.9213 trillion yuan, while the capital and financial account recorded a deficit of 1.3948 trillion yuan [1][2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the current account surplus reached 3.5074 trillion yuan, with a goods trade surplus of 5.2015 trillion yuan, and a capital and financial account deficit of 3.3885 trillion yuan [1][2] Summary by Categories Current Account - Q3 2025 current account surplus: 1.3948 trillion yuan (195.6 billion USD) [1] - Goods trade surplus in Q3 2025: 1.9213 trillion yuan (269.5 billion USD) [1] - Service trade deficit in Q3 2025: 352 billion yuan (49.4 billion USD) [1] - First three quarters 2025 current account surplus: 3.5074 trillion yuan (489.8 billion USD) [2] - Goods trade surplus for the first three quarters: 5.2015 trillion yuan (726.2 billion USD) [2] Capital and Financial Account - Q3 2025 capital and financial account deficit: 1.3948 trillion yuan (195.6 billion USD) [1] - First three quarters 2025 capital and financial account deficit: 3.3885 trillion yuan (473.3 billion USD) [2]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China reported a current account surplus of 13,948 billion yuan for Q3 2025, driven by a goods trade surplus of 19,213 billion yuan, despite service and primary income deficits [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the current account surplus reached 35,074 billion yuan, with a goods trade surplus of 52,015 billion yuan, indicating strong trade performance [1][2] - The capital and financial account showed a deficit of 13,948 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with net inflows from foreign direct investment into China [1] Summary by Categories Current Account - In Q3 2025, the current account surplus was 13,948 billion yuan, equivalent to 1,956 billion USD, with a goods trade surplus of 19,213 billion yuan (2,695 billion USD) [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the current account surplus totaled 35,074 billion yuan (4,898 billion USD), with a goods trade surplus of 52,015 billion yuan (7,262 billion USD) [2] Trade Balances - Q3 2025 saw a service trade deficit of 3,520 billion yuan and a primary income deficit of 2,324 billion yuan, while the secondary income recorded a surplus of 579 billion yuan [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the service trade deficit was 11,166 billion yuan, and the primary income deficit was 6,844 billion yuan, with a secondary income surplus of 1,069 billion yuan [1][2] Capital and Financial Account - The capital and financial account recorded a deficit of 13,948 billion yuan in Q3 2025, including net errors and omissions [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the capital and financial account deficit was 33,885 billion yuan, indicating significant outflows [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China reported a preliminary balance of international payments for the first three quarters of this year, indicating a significant current account surplus. Group 1: Current Account Overview - In the first three quarters of this year, China's current account surplus reached 35,074 billion yuan [1] - In USD terms, the current account surplus amounted to 4,898 million USD [1] Group 2: Trade Balance - The goods trade surplus was 52,015 billion yuan, while the services trade recorded a deficit of 11,166 billion yuan [1] - In USD, the goods trade surplus was 7,262 million USD, and the services trade deficit was 1,558 million USD [1] Group 3: Income Balance - The primary income recorded a deficit of 6,844 billion yuan, while the secondary income showed a surplus of 1,069 billion yuan [1] - In USD, the primary income deficit was 955 million USD, and the secondary income surplus was 149 million USD [1]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China reported preliminary data on the international balance of payments for the third quarter and the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a significant surplus in the current account [1][2]. Group 1: Current Account Overview - In Q3 2025, China's current account surplus was 13,948 billion yuan, with a goods trade surplus of 19,213 billion yuan, a services trade deficit of 3,520 billion yuan, a primary income deficit of 2,324 billion yuan, and a secondary income surplus of 579 billion yuan [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the current account surplus reached 35,074 billion yuan, with a goods trade surplus of 52,015 billion yuan, a services trade deficit of 11,166 billion yuan, a primary income deficit of 6,844 billion yuan, and a secondary income surplus of 1,069 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Capital and Financial Account - In Q3 2025, the capital and financial account (including net errors and omissions) recorded a deficit of 13,948 billion yuan, while direct investment into China maintained a net inflow [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the capital and financial account (including net errors and omissions) showed a deficit of 33,885 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: USD Valuation - In USD terms, the current account surplus for Q3 2025 was 1,956 billion USD, with a goods trade surplus of 2,695 billion USD, a services trade deficit of 494 billion USD, a primary income deficit of 326 billion USD, and a secondary income surplus of 81 billion USD [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the current account surplus was 4,898 billion USD, with a goods trade surplus of 7,262 billion USD, a services trade deficit of 1,558 billion USD, a primary income deficit of 955 billion USD, and a secondary income surplus of 149 billion USD [2]. Group 4: SDR Valuation - In terms of Special Drawing Rights (SDR), the current account surplus for Q3 2025 was 1,429 billion SDR, with a goods trade surplus of 1,969 billion SDR, a services trade deficit of 361 billion SDR, a primary income deficit of 238 billion SDR, and a secondary income surplus of 59 billion SDR [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the current account surplus was 3,639 billion SDR, with a goods trade surplus of 5,394 billion SDR, a services trade deficit of 1,161 billion SDR, a primary income deficit of 705 billion SDR, and a secondary income surplus of 110 billion SDR [2].

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China released preliminary data on the international balance of payments for the third quarter and the first three quarters of 2025, indicating significant trends in China's current account and capital account [1] Group 1: Current Account - In the third quarter of 2025, China's current account surplus reached 1.3948 trillion yuan, driven by a goods trade surplus of 1.9213 trillion yuan [1] - The service trade recorded a deficit of 352 billion yuan, while the primary income showed a deficit of 232.4 billion yuan [1] - The secondary income balance resulted in a surplus of 57.9 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital and Financial Account - The capital and financial account, including net errors and omissions for the quarter, reported a deficit of 1.3948 trillion yuan [1] - Direct investment into China maintained a net inflow, indicating continued foreign interest in the Chinese market [1]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) released preliminary data on China's international balance of payments for the third quarter and the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a current account surplus of 13,948 billion yuan in Q3 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Current Account - In Q3 2025, China's current account surplus was 13,948 billion yuan, with a goods trade surplus of 19,213 billion yuan, a services trade deficit of 3,520 billion yuan, a primary income deficit of 2,324 billion yuan, and a secondary income surplus of 579 billion yuan [2][3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the current account surplus reached 35,074 billion yuan, with a goods trade surplus of 52,015 billion yuan and a services trade deficit of 11,166 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Capital and Financial Account - The capital and financial account recorded a deficit of 13,948 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with net inflows from foreign direct investment into China [2][3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the capital and financial account showed a deficit of 33,885 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 3: USD and SDR Valuation - In USD terms, the current account surplus for Q3 2025 was 1,956 million USD, with a goods trade surplus of 2,695 million USD and a services trade deficit of 494 million USD [2][3]. - The current account surplus for the first three quarters of 2025 was 4,898 million USD, with a goods trade surplus of 7,262 million USD [2][3]. - In terms of Special Drawing Rights (SDR), the current account surplus for Q3 2025 was 1,429 million SDR, with a goods trade surplus of 1,969 million SDR [3][4].

Core Insights - The cross-border payment and settlement scale in China has reached a historical high, with a total of $14 trillion expected by 2024, marking a 64% increase from 2020 [4][6] - The cross-border payment and settlement total for the first three quarters of this year reached $11.6 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [4][6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen a significant increase in the scale and stability of China's cross-border payments, with an average annual growth rate of 8 percentage points higher than the previous five-year period [4][6] Trade and Economic Activity - The average annual growth rate of foreign trade in Gansu Province has reached 13.9% since 2021, with the total import and export value expected to exceed 60 billion yuan for the first time in nearly a decade in 2024 [6] - The average annual scale of service trade imports and exports has exceeded $860 billion during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, representing a 26% increase compared to the previous five-year period [7] Financial Market Developments - As of June 2025, China's foreign financial assets exceeded $11 trillion, while foreign liabilities surpassed $7.2 trillion, indicating a 25% and 10% increase respectively since the end of 2020 [8] - The implementation of a dual management framework for foreign exchange markets has enhanced the stability and optimization of international payments [8] Service Trade Improvements - The introduction of facilitation policies has significantly improved the efficiency of cross-border fund settlements for enterprises, with a reported 3,000 transactions amounting to over $64 million completed in the first half of the year [9][10] - The development of cross-border e-commerce has become a new driving force for foreign trade growth, with over 130,000 small and micro businesses benefiting from improved foreign exchange services [11] Open Market Initiatives - The issuance of Panda bonds by foreign institutions in China's interbank bond market has expanded, with cumulative issuance exceeding 1 trillion yuan [12] - Reforms to the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) systems have simplified approval processes and enhanced cross-border capital management [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The international financial market has experienced increased volatility this year, but China's foreign exchange market has shown resilience and stability, maintaining a basic balance in international payments [1][2]. Group 1: International Balance of Payments - In the first half of the year, China's current account surplus reached 21,126 billion yuan, while the capital and financial account recorded a deficit of 19,936 billion yuan, indicating a reasonable equilibrium [1]. - The current account surplus reflects net income from exports, which leads to capital outflows through investments, thus the capital and financial account deficit should not be simply interpreted as capital flight [1]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The stability of the international balance of payments supports currency stability, enhances international competitiveness, and promotes economic development, which are key macroeconomic objectives [2]. - China's economic foundation remains strong, with a focus on expanding domestic demand as a long-term strategy, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics - The maturity of the foreign exchange market and improved regulatory capabilities are crucial for mitigating external risks [3]. - The foreign exchange market has become more stable, with the marketization of the RMB exchange rate mechanism improving, leading to increased exchange rate flexibility [3]. - Future developments in foreign trade and foreign investment are expected to be positively influenced by a more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent foreign exchange management system [3].

Core Insights - Since the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's foreign exchange market has shown resilience and stability, with significant growth in cross-border capital flows and the international influence of the Renminbi [1][2][3] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - The foreign exchange market's trading volume is projected to reach $41 trillion by 2024, a 37.4% increase from 2020 [1] - The scale of cross-border receipts and payments is expected to be $14 trillion by 2024, reflecting a 64% growth compared to 2020 [1] - The net inflow of foreign investment into China from 2021 to mid-2025 is over $740 billion [2] Group 2: International Balance of Payments - China's international balance of payments has maintained basic equilibrium, with steady increases in foreign financial assets and liabilities [2] - The average annual scale of goods trade imports and exports from 2021 to 2024 is nearly $6 trillion, a 43% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The net foreign assets of China stand at $3.8 trillion, ranking third globally [2] Group 3: Resilience and Risk Management - The resilience of the foreign exchange market has improved, enhancing its ability to withstand external shocks [3] - The percentage of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging has increased from 17% in 2020 to around 30% [3] - The share of Renminbi in cross-border trade has risen from 16% to nearly 30% [3] Group 4: Efficient Allocation of Foreign Exchange Resources - The foreign exchange market has developed a comprehensive product system, including spot, forward, swap, and options [4] - By mid-2023, 703 banks and 115 non-bank institutions, including 296 foreign institutions, participated in the interbank foreign exchange market [4] - The Renminbi has maintained its position as the fifth most traded currency globally, with a market share of 8.5%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from 2022 [4] Group 5: Policy Enhancements for Enterprises - The foreign exchange management authority has focused on optimizing policies to benefit enterprises and the public [5] - Since 2021, policies for facilitating high-quality enterprises have been upgraded, with approximately $4.7 trillion in facilitation transactions processed by September 2025 [6] - The implementation of a "one-stop" service for trade foreign exchange business has streamlined processes for enterprises [6] Group 6: Future Directions - The foreign exchange management authority aims to balance trade facilitation and risk prevention, enhancing public awareness of policy benefits [7]