广发宏观周度述评（第37期） 广发宏观周度述评 （ 第1-36期，复盘必读 ） 内容 第一， 全球资产主流叙事：一致预期松动但尚未逆转 。 在前期报告《年初以来大类资产在定价什么》、《如何看宏大叙事对资产定价的影响》中，我们指出今年 全球大类资产中有五类资产整体跑赢，背后是定价几大主流叙事：美元信用弱化、黄金从避险资产变为新货币"锚"、全球产业链供应链重塑、 AI 是新一轮技术革 命的基础设施、有色金属是新一轮技术革命的原油等。 从席勒《叙事经济学》的框架来看，叙事的客观性并不是关键，叙事的传播规律和强度是它影响宏微观现象的根本。所以我们认为要识别核心叙事，建立叙事分析 框架，评估"叙事生命周期"。按照叙事对资产的影响路径，可以量化叙事强度，把叙事分为萌芽期、认同期、狂热期、消退期，在不同阶段赋予不同的投资策略。 从 10 月以来的资产定价环境来看，主流叙事背后的一致预期有阶段性松动的迹象： 一是美元反弹。年初以来美元一直震荡下行，至 9 月 16 日达到 96.6 的低位，此后悄然开始一轮低斜率反弹，至 10 月 31 日已达阶段性高点的 99.7 。相对于之前 的"去美元化"，市场也开始探讨一些新的逻辑， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in Meta's stock price due to disappointing earnings, raising concerns about the return on massive investments in AI infrastructure by major tech companies [1][2]. Financial Performance - Meta reported Q3 revenue of $51.24 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, but net profit plummeted 83% to $2.71 billion, with earnings per share at $1.05, far below the market expectation of $6.68 [7]. - The drastic drop in net profit was primarily attributed to a one-time non-cash tax expense of $15.93 billion resulting from the U.S. tax reform [3][7]. - After adjusting for tax impacts, Meta's adjusted earnings per share were $7.25, exceeding analyst expectations of $6.69 [7]. Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Meta plans to increase its capital expenditures for the year to between $116 billion and $118 billion, up from a previous estimate of $114 billion to $118 billion [7]. - The company’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, indicated that the implementation of the tax reform would significantly reduce federal cash tax payments in the coming years [7]. - Meta's CFO, Susan Li, stated that capital expenditure growth in 2026 would significantly exceed that of 2025, indicating ongoing investment needs [8]. AI Infrastructure Investment - Major tech companies, including Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft, collectively spent approximately $78 billion on capital expenditures in the last quarter, marking an 89% year-over-year increase, primarily for data center construction and GPU investments [12]. - Alphabet has raised its capital expenditure forecast for 2025 to between $91 billion and $93 billion, reflecting strong demand for its cloud services [13]. - Microsoft reported a record capital expenditure of $34.9 billion in its most recent quarter, driven by accelerating demand across multiple sectors [13][14]. Market Concerns - Investors are increasingly worried about whether the substantial investments in AI infrastructure will yield adequate returns, with analysts questioning if the industry is entering a bubble [14]. - Meta's total costs surged to $30.7 billion in Q3, a 32% increase, outpacing revenue growth and leading to a contraction in operating profit margin from 43% to 40% [11]. - The company’s guidance for Q4 revenue is between $56 billion and $59 billion, which aligns with market expectations, but concerns remain about ongoing cost pressures and declining profit margins [11].

来源：环球市场播报 周二美股成交额第1名特斯拉收跌1.08%，成交239.25亿美元。该公司CEO马斯克威胁称，如果得不到高 额薪酬，就会离开特斯拉公司，或者至少辞去首席执行官一职。 此外著名投资者Cathie Wood称特斯拉有望10年内增长30倍，马斯克回应称："的确如此。" 第2名英伟达收跌0.83%，成交215.19亿美元。据媒体周二报道，英伟达竞争对手荷兰AI芯片创企Axelira 推出Europa芯片。 另据报道，英伟达公司讨论为OpenAI提供贷款担保。媒体披露了OpenAI公司CEO奥特曼（Sam Altman）与英伟达等科技巨头达成一系列重磅投资交易的内幕。文章称，黄仁勋不想错过这波AI基础 设施投资热潮，主动联系奥特曼磋商AI投资事宜。虽然双方的谈判形势一度紧张，但最终还是达成了 1000亿美元投资协议。 第3名苹果收高0.20%，成交122.25亿美元。虽然涨幅微小，但该股仍再创历史新高。根据Counterpoint Research的一份报告，苹果iPhone 17在美国和中国市场的初步销量已超过iPhone 16。报告显示，在中美 两个市场上，苹果iPhone 17上市后10天内的销 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant investment agreement between OpenAI and Nvidia, highlighting the competitive dynamics in the AI infrastructure sector and the strategic maneuvers of key players like OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang [1][3][5]. Group 1: Investment Agreements - Nvidia and OpenAI reached a monumental investment agreement worth $100 billion, marking it as one of the largest in the AI infrastructure space [1][3]. - The deal includes Nvidia renting up to 5 million chips to OpenAI, valued at $350 billion, along with an investment option of up to $100 billion to support OpenAI's operations [7]. Group 2: Competitive Dynamics - Altman has been leveraging the competitive nature of Silicon Valley tech giants to secure investments for OpenAI, creating a sense of urgency among them to participate in its growth [5]. - Following reports of OpenAI renting Google’s TPU chips, Nvidia's Huang quickly sought to re-engage in negotiations, indicating the high stakes involved [6]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - OpenAI has also entered into partnerships with AMD and Broadcom, with AMD's stock surging 24% after announcing a deal that grants OpenAI a 10% equity stake [7]. - Broadcom is collaborating with OpenAI to develop a new chip and computing system, with both companies accelerating negotiations after Nvidia's agreement [7][8].

Summary of AMD and OpenAI Deal Insights Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - **Industry**: Semiconductor and AI Infrastructure Core Insights and Arguments - AMD has announced a deal with OpenAI involving a total of **6GW** of capacity, positioning AMD as a significant player in the merchant GPU market, particularly as a "core strategic compute partner of OpenAI" [2] - The deal includes the issuance of AMD warrants for **160 million shares** (approximately **10%** of AMD's outstanding shares) to OpenAI, allowing OpenAI to purchase AMD shares at **$600** as they meet specific milestones [2] - J.P. Morgan estimates that the total spend for every **GW** is around **$50-60 billion**, with approximately **50%** allocated to chips, suggesting potential incremental revenue of **$150 billion** from the deal [3] - Initial investor feedback indicates a projected **EPS** (Earnings Per Share) range of **$10-12**, reflecting a significant re-rating of AMD's valuation to **30x** [4] Additional Important Points - The comparison between AMD's **6GW** deal and NVIDIA's **10GW+** deal is deemed unfair, as AMD's capacity is through cloud partners [4] - The deal is considered much larger than a previously discussed **$10 billion** margin dilutive deal by AVGO related to AI ASICs [4] - The deal is expected to benefit TSMC and ASML, indicating positive implications for the semiconductor supply chain [4] - The initial capacity of **1GW** is set to begin in the second half of **2026** [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance on October 2, with all three major indices closing higher. The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.61% to 27,287.12 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.77% to 9,724.38 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 3.36% to 6,682.86 points [2] - The semiconductor, electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, and hardware equipment sectors performed strongly. Notably, the semiconductor sector saw a significant rise, with SMIC increasing by over 12% and Hua Hong Semiconductor rising by more than 7% [3] - SMIC's stock price reached a historic high, closing at 90.35 HKD per share after a 12.70% increase. This marked a cumulative rise of 22.89% over three consecutive trading days [5] Group 2 - As of September 30, SMIC has attracted substantial investment, with southbound funds holding over 2.5 billion shares valued at over 200 billion HKD, accounting for more than 20% of its total market capitalization. Multiple institutions have given SMIC a buy rating [7] - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing a notable recovery, with the market size reaching 346 billion USD in the first half of the year, reflecting an 18.9% year-on-year growth driven by AI infrastructure investments and terminal application demand. The domestic market size is expected to reach 102.6 billion RMB by 2025, with SMIC playing a crucial role in mature process expansion and local supply chain [7]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance on October 2, with all three major indices closing higher. The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.61% to 27,287.12 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.77% to 9,724.38 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 3.36% to 6,682.86 points [3] - The semiconductor, electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, and hardware equipment sectors performed strongly. Notably, the semiconductor sector saw a significant rise, with SMIC increasing by over 12% and Hua Hong Semiconductor rising by more than 7% [4] - SMIC's stock price reached a new high, increasing by 12.70% to 90.35 HKD per share, marking a cumulative increase of 22.89% over three consecutive trading days. As of September 30, southbound funds held over 2.5 billion shares of SMIC, with a market value exceeding 200 billion HKD, accounting for over 20% of its total market capitalization [6] Group 2 - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing a notable recovery, with a market size of 346 billion USD in the first half of the year, reflecting an 18.9% year-on-year growth. This growth is primarily driven by investments in AI infrastructure and demand for end-user applications [7] - The domestic market size is projected to reach 102.6 billion RMB by 2025, with SMIC playing a crucial role as a leading foundry in the expansion of mature processes and the localization of the supply chain [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing economic adjustments and policy responses from various government departments, indicating a focus on enhancing consumer living standards and stabilizing key industries [2][4][5]. Economic News - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the importance of maintaining principles in international negotiations, particularly regarding TikTok and EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, advocating for the removal of market barriers [2]. - The Bank of Japan maintains its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with expectations of potential rate hikes later in the year amid economic uncertainties [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology outlines a plan for the light industry to achieve stable growth from 2025 to 2026, focusing on optimizing supply, expanding consumption, and enhancing international competitiveness [2]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment reports significant progress in pollution control, with substantial reductions in PM2.5 levels in key regions by 2024 compared to 2020 [2]. - The National Taxation Administration reports positive growth in major tax categories, particularly in the financial sector, driven by increased capital market activity [2]. Company News - Qilu Bank's executives increased their shareholding by 20,000 shares, representing 0.0003% of the total share capital, despite a slight decline in stock price [3]. - Nanjing Public Utilities terminated its cash acquisition of a 68% stake in Hangzhou Yugu Technology, reflecting strategic adjustments [3]. - Tianpu Co. has faced unusual trading fluctuations, prompting warnings to investors about potential risks [3]. - Fengshan Group signed a technology development contract with Tsinghua University to enhance its competitive edge in battery technology [3]. - Fulian Precision signed a prepayment agreement with CATL for a total of 1.5 billion yuan to secure lithium iron phosphate supply [3]. Industry Insights - The report discusses the aviation industry, noting a cautious approach to capacity expansion among airlines due to low growth in supply and improved passenger load factors in August [14][15]. - Domestic airlines increased capacity by approximately 1.7% year-on-year in August, with a notable improvement in load factors compared to July [15][16]. - Internationally, airlines based in Shanghai saw significant increases in load factors, indicating strong demand in the region [17]. - The report highlights the impact of the "Self-Discipline Convention" in the aviation sector, which aims to curb market chaos and improve profitability [18].

Market Performance Review - The A-share market recovered from last week's decline, with significant volatility remaining a characteristic feature. Major indices mostly rose, with the ChiNext index rebounding by 5.48% after a previous drop of 5.42%. The CSI A50 and SSE 50, which are heavily weighted by large-cap stocks, lagged behind in terms of growth. Growth style stocks showed a strong rebound, while financial stocks had smaller gains. Small-cap stocks significantly outperformed large-cap stocks, with the Ning and Mao indices both rising, the Ning combination increasing by 1.95% and the Mao index slightly up by 0.40% [3][12][29]. Industry Overview - The industry saw a general rebound but lacked a clear leading theme. Among the Shenwan first-level industries, electronics (6.15%), real estate (5.98%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (4.81%), media (4.27%), and non-ferrous metals (3.76%) led the gains. Conversely, sectors like social services (-0.28%), pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.36%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.41%), banking (-0.66%), and comprehensive (-1.43%) performed poorly. The current market is still entangled in narratives around AI infrastructure investment, potential Fed rate cuts, and anti-involution policies [4][13][29]. Future Outlook and Investment Views - The report suggests that lower volatility presents better participation opportunities. Although there was a significant single-day rise in the A-share market, it does not imply that short-term downward volatility risks have been fully alleviated. Intense bull-bear battles are common at the tail end of a trend, indicating that time is needed for consolidation before the next upward phase. Future volatility in the A-share market is expected to be more influenced by overseas factors, particularly following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data in August, which solidifies expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. The A-share market will likely use the rate cut as a key pricing logic point after completing its adjustment [4][29]. Stock Selection Strategy - The report emphasizes that individual stock alpha logic is superior to industry beta logic, focusing on identifying "turnaround" opportunities in individual stocks. The TMT growth sectors, represented by AI applications, computing power chains, and optical modules, which have been adjusting since March, are expected to see valuation recovery opportunities. The report highlights that simply buying stocks with "earnings exceeding expectations" during the mid-year reporting season may not yield sustained relative returns. Instead, the "turnaround" strategy is deemed more effective for performance discovery during this period. The report constructs a portfolio of stocks expected to exceed earnings expectations for the mid-year report, aiming to capture excess returns from individual stock alpha in September and October [5][29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that 招银国际 has raised the target price for 中兴通讯 from HKD 26.5 to HKD 42, which corresponds to a projected P/E ratio of 25 times for next year, aligning with industry valuation forecasts [1] - 中兴通讯's target price in RMB has been increased from CNY 32.86 to CNY 57, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] - In the first half of the year, 中兴通讯's revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to CNY 71.6 billion, while net profit decreased by 12% to CNY 5.1 billion [1] Group 2 - The shift in product mix towards higher shipment volume servers has negatively impacted gross margin and net margin, which fell by 8 and 2.1 percentage points to 32.5% and 7.1%, respectively [1] - 招银国际 anticipates that 中兴通讯 will maintain strong growth momentum in the coming years, supported by the AI infrastructure investment cycle and the trend of domestic semiconductor localization [1] - Projected net profits for 中兴通讯 from 2025 to 2027 are CNY 7.976 billion, CNY 8.035 billion, and CNY 9.568 billion, reflecting year-on-year changes of -5.3%, +0.7%, and +19.1%, respectively [1]