更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日 星期一 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、高盛 2026 年十大投资主题聚焦：AI 基础设施投资转向数据中心内部及电力供应 | | | | | 商；医药研发从减肥药转向心血管领域；中国经济增长将超市场预期，技术进步和 | | | | | 出口为主要驱动力等。美联储政策、关税裁决等政治不确定性将主导上半年市场。 | | | | | 2、美国官员证实，特朗普已下令对委内瑞拉境内包括军事设施在内的地点进行空 | | | | | 袭。委内瑞拉总统马杜罗宣布（国家）进入紧急状态，他呼吁人民行动起来 "击 | | | | | 败这场帝国主义侵略"。 | | | | | 3、2025 年贵金属价格大幅上涨，黄金（+65%）、白银（+148%）、铂金（+127%） | | | | | 和 ...

高盛2026年十大投资主题聚焦：AI基础设施投资转向数据中心内部及电力供应商；医药研发从减肥药转向心血管领域；中国经济增长将超市场预期，技 术进步和出口为主要驱动力等。美联储政策、关税裁决等政治不确定性将主导上半年市场。 高盛在报告中称， AI基础设施投资正进入新阶段 ，英伟达、微软、亚马逊等传统领军企业股价自去年夏季以来陷入停滞，而博通等新进入者开始崭露 头角。 在医药领域，减肥药市场出现分化 ，礼来继续跑赢大盘，但诺和诺德2025年股价已腰斩近半，市场焦点转向明年待批新药及心血管治疗领域的 复兴。 高盛经济学家预测中国经济增长将超出市场共识，技术进步和出口领先地位将成为主要驱动力。 与此同时， 美联储政策走向、最高法院对特朗普政府 关税政策的裁决、新任美联储主席任命等政策不确定性，将在2026年上半年主导市场情绪。 值得注意的是，高盛指出，当前美股估值已达到上世纪90年代末以来最高水平，投资者需在把握机遇的同时保持审慎。 AI基础设施深化与电力短缺交易 AI投资主题正经历显著转型。英伟达、微软、亚马逊等此前表现稳健的领军企业股价自去年夏季起停滞不前，博通等新公司开始取得进展，谷歌等 AI"赢家"开始显现。 ...

近年来，厄瓜多尔发现了多个世界级铜矿。 据Mining.com援引路透社报道，金铜矿开发商索尔黄金公司（SolGold）周三宣布，已经同意其最大股 东江西铜业8.67亿英镑（11.7亿美元）的收购要约。 本月初，江西铜业第三次提出收购要约，这家伦敦上市矿企表示同意。 每股28便士的收购价格较11月19日索尔黄金公司的收市价高出43%，当日是江西铜业首次接触该公司提 出收购的前一日。 索尔黄金公司的其他投资者包括必和必拓和纽蒙特。 周三，索尔黄金公司股价收于25.65便士，略微上涨。 此项协议将使江西铜业控制索尔黄金公司在厄瓜多尔因巴布拉省的卡斯卡维尔（Cascabel）项目。在电 动汽车消费和AI基础设施投资推动下，矿业公司都在争取获得铜矿资源。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：智通财经 半导体晶圆代工即将开启新一轮涨价。 《科创板日报》记者从多个独立信源了解到，中芯国际已向下游客户发布涨价通知，且此次涨价主要集 中于8英寸BCD工艺平台，涨价幅度在10%左右。 "我们已经接到了涨价通知，每家客户涨价情况不尽相同。"一家芯片上市公司人士向《科创板日报》记 者表示，"我们认为这样的涨价不可持续，后续我们公司还会与中芯国际方面进行进一步协商，看能否 争取到优惠空间。" 对此，中芯国际方面向《科创板日报》记者回应称："公司对媒体新闻不做回复和评价。" 《科创板日报》记者了解到，此次并非只有中芯国际一家公司上涨其代工价格。另一家平台型的芯片设 计企业从业者向《科创板日报》记者表示，他们近期已经接到中芯国际、世界先进（VIS）等供应商的 涨价通知，其中后者涨幅同样在10%左右，且主要是BCD平台。 BCD是一种单片集成工艺技术，这种技术能够在同一芯片上集成功率、模拟和数字信号处理电路，能 够大幅降低功率耗损，提高系统性能，节省电路的封装费用，并具有更好的可靠性。 其次，台积电（TSMC）收缩8英寸产能转移到高端制程 ...

半导体晶圆代工即将开启新一轮涨价。 《科创板日报》记者从多个独立信源了解到， 中芯国际已向下游客户发布涨价通知，且此次涨价主要集中于8英寸BCD工艺平台，涨价幅度 在10%左右。 "我们已经接到了涨价通知，每家客户涨价情况不尽相同。"一家芯片上市公司人士向《科创板日报》记者表示，"我们认为这样的涨价不可 持续，后续我们公司还会与中芯国际方面进行进一步协商，看能否争取到优惠空间。" 对此，中芯国际方面向《科创板日报》记者回应称："公司对媒体新闻不做回复和评价。" 《科创板日报》记者了解到，此次并非只有中芯国际一家公司上涨其代工价格。另一家平台型的芯片设计企业从业者向《科创板日报》记者 表示，他们近期已经接到中芯国际、世界先进（VIS）等供应商的涨价通知，其中后者涨幅同样在10%左右，且主要是BCD平台。 上述芯片设计公司人士表示，这一轮晶圆代工价格上涨有其背后的行业因素助推，因此"未来免不了其他几家主流的晶圆厂跟风涨价"。 就具体原因，据介绍，首先是AI基础设施投资处于热潮期，而AI服务器等产品需要大量电源芯片，导致占用了许多BCD产能。 BCD是一种单片集成工艺技术，这种技术能够在同一芯片上集成功率、模拟和数 ...

中新社台北12月18日电 台湾当局财政事务主管部门统计处近日透露，2025年全台税收或出现300亿至 500亿元(新台币，下同)短征。《联合报》等媒体表达忧心，税收成长趋缓，长期性、高金额的军购支 出，势将挤压民生、社会福利与减税空间。 社论亦指，台湾近年特别预算规模不断膨胀，如明年度编列"强化防卫韧性及不对称战力特别预算""社 会韧性特别预算"等，合计金额达2.2万亿元。民进党当局领导人赖清德上台一年多，编列特别预算已逼 近蔡英文任内八年的2.57万亿元总规模。特别预算"常态化"弱化既有预算审议机制，考验财政纪律。 标普全球评级子公司中华信评日前发布"2026年台湾信用展望"并指出，受AI基础设施投资动能放缓及全 球贸易不确定性升高的影响，2026年台湾出口与投资或降温，经济成长动能面临回落，预计降为 2.4%，财政承压态势恐加剧。(完) 台湾防务主管部门18日的最新消息称，美国政府就总额逾111亿美元的8项对台军售案启动"知会国会"程 序。此案属台当局1.25万亿防务特别预算范畴，待台立法机构审议通过后将办理签约。台媒指出，同期 出现的税收短征这一变化，释放出警讯。 《联合报》18日社论指出，在经济增长率 ...

Core Insights - OpenAI has transformed from a non-profit research lab into a commercial giant valued at $500 billion, with co-founders Elon Musk and Sam Altman now fierce competitors [1] - The shift from non-profit to profit-driven entity has altered the AI competition landscape, with OpenAI's ChatGPT reaching over 800 million users weekly since its launch [1] - Musk has accused OpenAI of betraying its founding mission and has initiated legal actions against the company and Altman [3][4] Group 1: Founding and Ideals - OpenAI was founded on a $1 billion commitment from Musk and other tech leaders to create an AI lab free from commercial pressures [2] - The initial non-profit vision faced challenges as early as 2017, with Musk expressing frustration over the potential shift towards a tech startup model [2] Group 2: Competition and Legal Battles - Musk left OpenAI's board in 2018, citing potential conflicts of interest with Tesla's AI initiatives, but deeper issues were at play [2] - Musk's xAI is now a direct competitor to OpenAI, with a projected valuation of $230 billion and plans for a $15 billion funding round [4][5] Group 3: Investment and Growth Strategies - OpenAI plans to invest over $1 trillion in AI infrastructure, significantly outpacing competitors like Anthropic, which has a $100 billion commitment [6] - Analysts express skepticism about OpenAI's aggressive spending strategy, questioning its sustainability and potential returns [6] Group 4: Revenue Projections and Partnerships - OpenAI anticipates annual revenue to reach $20 billion by year-end and potentially thousands of billions by 2030 [7] - Major tech companies, including Oracle, AMD, and Broadcom, are benefiting from OpenAI's growth, with Oracle signing a $500 billion infrastructure deal [7] Group 5: Strategic Adjustments - In response to competitive pressures, OpenAI has initiated a "red code" strategy to enhance ChatGPT's performance while delaying other projects [8] - OpenAI recently launched ChatGPT-5.2, claiming it to be the best system for everyday professional use [8]

Core Viewpoint - The investment focus in the AI sector should shift from infrastructure to application layers, as large language models (LLMs) are rapidly commoditizing and are not the ultimate value creators [1][3][4]. Group 1: Current Market Dynamics - LLMs are being compared to the early stages of broadband network construction, where the models are essentially being "given away for free" [4]. - Major LLM developers, such as OpenAI, are in fierce competition to surpass each other on similar functionalities, akin to "creating 10 Googles" simultaneously [5]. - The real profits in the value chain will flow to application developers who can effectively utilize these tools to create actual business value [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company prefers to invest in those who leverage AI capabilities to create significant efficiency improvements and business model transformations within specific industries, rather than in the developers of the search engines themselves [6]. - There is a cautious stance towards the current market's enthusiasm for AI infrastructure, with comparisons made between Nvidia's $5 trillion valuation and Cisco's valuation during the 1999 tech boom, suggesting it reflects past achievements rather than future potential [6]. Group 3: Future Predictions - The company predicts that the U.S. will invest $500 billion in data centers over the next few years to meet "crazy" demand, but views this investment as a "small boom" with capital and attention having already "overstepped" [7].

Global Asset Narrative - The core narrative of global assets is showing signs of loosening expectations but has not yet reversed. Key narratives include the weakening of dollar credit, gold transitioning from a safe-haven asset to a new monetary anchor, the reshaping of global supply chains, AI as the foundation of a new technological revolution, and non-ferrous metals being likened to the oil of this new revolution [1][2]. Recent Market Developments - Since October, the pricing environment for assets has shown signs of loosening consensus expectations, particularly with a rebound in the dollar, which rose from a low of 96.6 on September 16 to 99.7 by October 31. This shift has led to discussions around new economic logics such as increased labor productivity and rising real interest rates [2]. - Gold prices have experienced significant adjustments, peaking at $4,357 per ounce on October 20 before falling to $3,997 by October 31, influenced by geopolitical factors and easing global trade tensions [2]. - Recent economic discussions between China and the U.S. have yielded new outcomes, with tariffs being canceled or suspended, indicating a reduction in the risks of further disruptions in global supply chains [2]. Sector-Specific Insights - Meta's increased capital expenditures have led to a significant stock price adjustment, indicating a potential break in the positive cycle of AI infrastructure investment and market valuation [3]. - There is a general consensus on the increased demand for non-ferrous metals due to new industries, but there are differing views on the magnitude of this demand [3]. - The loosening of narratives is expected to impact asset prices, leading to increased volatility in financial market expectations, although the foundational narratives remain intact [3]. Global Market Performance - Global stock markets have shown divergence, with U.S. stocks beginning to exhibit signs of concern. The MSCI developed and emerging markets saw narrower gains of 0.61% and 0.92%, respectively [4][5]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.71% and 2.24%, respectively, despite concerns over Meta's aggressive capital spending plans leading to an 11% drop in its stock price on October 30 [5]. - In the commodities market, precious metals have moved away from a one-sided trend, with gold prices continuing to decline while silver prices increased by 2.0% [6]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's economic performance in Q3 exceeded market expectations, with GDP growth of 0.2%, driven by stable investment and public spending despite weak private consumption [18][19]. - The ECB maintained interest rates at 2% during its October meeting, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [19]. - In China, the stock and bond markets have shown signs of a "see-saw" effect, with the A-share market experiencing a slight increase of 0.41% [11]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Chinese government has announced plans to enhance digital transformation in urban areas, aiming to establish over 50 fully digitalized cities by 2027 [27][28]. - Recent policy measures aim to improve the financing environment for enterprises, with the BCI index rising from 47.6 to 52.4, indicating a more favorable outlook for corporate financing [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in Meta's stock price due to disappointing earnings, raising concerns about the return on massive investments in AI infrastructure by major tech companies [1][2]. Financial Performance - Meta reported Q3 revenue of $51.24 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, but net profit plummeted 83% to $2.71 billion, with earnings per share at $1.05, far below the market expectation of $6.68 [7]. - The drastic drop in net profit was primarily attributed to a one-time non-cash tax expense of $15.93 billion resulting from the U.S. tax reform [3][7]. - After adjusting for tax impacts, Meta's adjusted earnings per share were $7.25, exceeding analyst expectations of $6.69 [7]. Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Meta plans to increase its capital expenditures for the year to between $116 billion and $118 billion, up from a previous estimate of $114 billion to $118 billion [7]. - The company’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, indicated that the implementation of the tax reform would significantly reduce federal cash tax payments in the coming years [7]. - Meta's CFO, Susan Li, stated that capital expenditure growth in 2026 would significantly exceed that of 2025, indicating ongoing investment needs [8]. AI Infrastructure Investment - Major tech companies, including Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft, collectively spent approximately $78 billion on capital expenditures in the last quarter, marking an 89% year-over-year increase, primarily for data center construction and GPU investments [12]. - Alphabet has raised its capital expenditure forecast for 2025 to between $91 billion and $93 billion, reflecting strong demand for its cloud services [13]. - Microsoft reported a record capital expenditure of $34.9 billion in its most recent quarter, driven by accelerating demand across multiple sectors [13][14]. Market Concerns - Investors are increasingly worried about whether the substantial investments in AI infrastructure will yield adequate returns, with analysts questioning if the industry is entering a bubble [14]. - Meta's total costs surged to $30.7 billion in Q3, a 32% increase, outpacing revenue growth and leading to a contraction in operating profit margin from 43% to 40% [11]. - The company’s guidance for Q4 revenue is between $56 billion and $59 billion, which aligns with market expectations, but concerns remain about ongoing cost pressures and declining profit margins [11].