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广发期货日评-20250619
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 02:23
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - A-shares are stabilizing amidst fluctuations, and domestic risk assets are expected to attract more international capital inflows. The short - term trading volume has not expanded, and the market is mainly in a fluctuating state. [3] - The overall market sentiment for treasury bonds is relatively strong. For the unilateral strategy, treasury bonds can be appropriately allocated with long positions on dips. For the spot - futures strategy, the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract can be appropriately concerned. [3] - The prices of crude oil and precious metals have declined. If the risk - aversion sentiment continues to weaken, the sold out - of - the - money call options on gold can be held. The upward drive has weakened, and the price has shifted to high - level consolidation. [3] - The EC main contract continues to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1900 - 2200. [3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The lower support of the index is relatively stable, while the upward breakthrough pressure still exists. The negotiation of tariffs is still in the game. The Lujiazui Financial Forum reflects the development goals of opening up to the outside world and RMB internationalization. It is recommended to try selling the put options with an exercise price of 5800 in July to earn the premium. [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The mention of monetary policy in the Lujiazui Forum is less, and the policies expected by the market have not been implemented. But treasury bond futures have not shown an obvious correction. [3] - **Precious Metals**: The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged as expected with a hawkish attitude. The risk - aversion sentiment has weakened, and the prices of crude oil and precious metals have fallen. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract continues to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1900 - 2200. [3] Black Sector - **Steel**: The demand and inventory of industrial steel products are deteriorating. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the long - steel and short - raw material arbitrage operation. [3] - **Iron Ore**: The decline in molten iron production has narrowed, and the arrival volume has climbed to a high level. It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720. [3] - **Coking Coal**: The auction non - successful rate in the market has decreased, the coal mine start - up rate has declined from a high level, and the spot market is weakly stable. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke. [3] - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of a fourth - round price cut this week. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke. [3] - **Silicon Iron**: Pay attention to the cost changes, and the losses of manufacturers are intensifying. It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds when the price reaches 5300 - 5400. [3] - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit situation in different production areas is differentiated, and the futures price is fluctuating at the bottom. It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds when the price reaches 5700 - 5800. [3] Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The weak driving force continues, and the futures price fluctuates within a narrow range. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000. [3] - **Zinc**: The center of zinc price has moved down, and the inventory reduction provides support for the price. Pay attention to the support level of 21000 - 21500 for the main contract. [3] - **Nickel**: The sentiment is低迷, and the futures price maintains a weak fluctuation. The fundamentals have not changed much. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 118000 - 124000. [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The futures price fluctuates within a narrow range, and the fundamentals remain weak. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12400 - 13000. [3] - **Tin**: Under the strong reality, the tin price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to focus on the recovery rhythm of the supply side and adopt the strategy of shorting on highs based on the inflection points of inventory and import data. [3] Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks are still uncertain in the short term. In the long - term, the impact of fundamental factors on the market needs to be considered. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations. [3] - **Urea**: The futures price has short - term technical correction pressure, and the upward space of the futures price requires effective verification from the news. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and consider positive arbitrage at the arbitrage end. [3] - **PX**: Its own supply - demand is tight, and the cost side is strong. The short - term trend of PX is strong. Pay attention to the pressure above 7000 and the trend of oil prices. [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand is gradually weakening, but the cost side is strong. PTA fluctuates strongly. Pay attention to the pressure around 5000. [3] - **Short - fiber**: With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing fee is expected to be repaired. The unilateral operation of PF is the same as that of PTA. [3] - **Bottle - chip**: During the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production cuts for bottle - chips, and the processing fee may rebound from the bottom. PR follows the cost fluctuation. [3] - **Ethanol**: The shutdown of the Iranian ethylene glycol plant has boosted the rise of ethylene glycol. Pay attention to the pressure of 4500 - 4550 for EG09 in the short term. [3] - **Styrene**: Short - term energy disturbances cause the futures price to fluctuate repeatedly. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the short - selling opportunities caused by the resonance of raw material ends in the medium term. [3] - **Caustic Soda**: The purchase price of alumina has continuously declined, and the futures price is mainly searching for the bottom. [3] - **PVC**: The short - term contradiction has not further intensified, and macro - disturbances have increased. The futures price consolidates at a low level. [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Affected by international geopolitical conflicts, BR has stopped falling and rebounded. BR2507 fluctuates in the range of 11000 - 12000 in the short term. [3] - **LLDPE**: The spot sentiment is good, and the upstream is holding up the price. It is regarded as bullish in the short term, and positive arbitrage on the monthly spread is recommended. [3] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, but the cost side has strong support. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be bearish in the medium term. [3] - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iranian issue, the market's willingness to allocate long positions is strong. It is bullish in the short term, and positive arbitrage on the monthly spread is recommended. [3] Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Meal**: The rise of crude oil and US soybean oil supports US soybeans, and the soybean meal futures price fluctuates strongly. [3] - **Pig**: As the weather gets hotter, the demand is weak, and the pig price fluctuates slightly. Pay attention to the performance around 13500. [3] - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the corn price fluctuates at a high level. It fluctuates around 2400 in the short term. [3] - **Oils**: Short - term oils may show a stagnant - rise and adjustment trend. P2509 may fluctuate around 8500 in the short term. [3] - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. It is recommended to trade short on rebounds, with the reference range of 5600 - 5850. [3] - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. It is recommended to trade short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure level around 13700. [3] - **Egg**: The spot market remains weak. The price rebounds from the bottom and then shows a short - selling trend after the rebound. [3] - **Apple**: The market is weak, and the trading volume is small. The main contract runs around 7600. [3] - **Jujube**: The market price runs weakly and stably. It runs around 8900 in the short term. [3] - **Peanut**: The market price fluctuates. The main contract runs around 8200. [3] - **Soda Ash**: The logic of oversupply continues. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of shorting on highs on rebounds. [3] Special Commodities Sector - **Glass**: The spot market sales have improved, and the short - term futures price has support. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] - **Rubber**: The continuous rebound of crude oil has driven up the rubber price. The short positions above 14000 can continue to be held. [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The downstream demand is expected to increase, and the industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. [3] New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of increased production of polysilicon, and the futures price has declined with reduced positions. Short positions can continue to be held. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fluctuates and consolidates, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The main contract is expected to run between 56,000 - 62,000. [3]