Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][53]. Core Insights - The land market in the first three quarters of 2025 shows a trend of reduced volume but improved quality, with a slight cooling in the third quarter. The fourth quarter is expected to be a peak period for land sales, warranting attention to the performance of various cities in terms of volume and price [2][3]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in major cities has increased, indicating a heightened focus on core urban areas. The average premium rate for sample cities in the first three quarters of 2025 was 5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [30][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Land Market Overview - The land market in the first three quarters of 2025 experienced a contraction in transaction volume, with a total land supply of 63,680 million square meters, down 15.5% year-on-year. The transaction area was 47,827 million square meters, a decrease of 8.4%, while the transaction amount increased by 6.7% to 15,746 billion yuan, driven by a 17.9% rise in average transaction price to 3,292 yuan per square meter [7][8][23]. 2. Premium Rates and Market Focus - The premium rates for land transactions in first-tier cities remain relatively high, with an average of 12.9%, reflecting a 7.3 percentage point increase year-on-year. Cities like Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Chengdu maintain high premium rates, with Hangzhou at 29.2% [30][38]. 3. Investment Strategies of Key Real Estate Companies - In the first three quarters of 2025, ten real estate companies achieved over 10 billion yuan in land acquisition, with nine being state-owned enterprises. The report highlights that the land acquisition intensity of key companies has increased, with the average acquisition intensity for major firms rising [44][49]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "Overweight" rating and suggests specific stocks for investment, including Vanke A, Poly Development, and China Overseas Development among others [53][55].

Core Viewpoint - The land supply and demand scale remains low, with overall land auction activity being subdued, while only a few high-quality plots maintain localized heat [1][2]. Supply - This week, the total land supply was 3.68 million square meters, a 30% increase from the previous week. Major cities like Beijing and Guangzhou each offered two residential plots with a combined base price of 3.916 billion yuan [2]. - In key cities, 78 residential plots were supplied this week, with an average plot ratio of 2.0. A notable plot in Beijing's Dongcheng District has a low-density residential land use with a plot ratio of 1.1 and a base price of 1.95 billion yuan, indicating a potential new home price exceeding 16,000 yuan per square meter [2]. Transaction - The total transaction area this week was 3.55 million square meters, a 17% increase from the previous week, with a transaction amount of 17.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% decrease [2]. - The average premium rate for land transactions was 1.6%, showing a slight recovery from low levels, although high-premium transactions remain limited [2]. Notable Transactions - Four residential plots were sold for over 1 billion yuan this week, with the highest being in Suzhou's Wujiang Taihu New City, sold for 1.936 billion yuan at a floor price of 17,600 yuan per square meter [4]. - The Hangzhou Pujiang plot was sold for a total price of 1.264 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 19.93%, highlighting its advantageous location near a metro station and educational institutions [3][12]. Market Trends - The land auction heat remains low, with the supply-demand scale continuing to decline, and the premium rates hitting new lows in the second half of the year [13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the Chinese real estate sector, highlighting a significant increase in land transaction volumes and prices, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Suzhou [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The weekly premium rate has reached a new high in nearly four months, with Shanghai setting a national record for land prices at 200,000 yuan per square meter [3][4]. - The total area of land supplied this week was 3.05 million square meters, a decrease of 42% compared to the previous week, while the transaction area increased by 35% to 3.38 million square meters [4][5]. - The average premium rate for land transactions rose to 16.2%, marking the highest level since April 2025, driven by high premium land sales in cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou [5][6]. Summary by Sections Supply - The report notes a total land supply of 3.05 million square meters, down 42% week-on-week, with 24 residential land plots offered in key cities, averaging a plot ratio of 2.14 [4]. - Specific notable land offerings include a residential plot in Beijing with a starting price of 1.03 billion yuan and a plot ratio of 1.6, located in a desirable area with good transportation links [4]. Transactions - The total transaction area was 3.38 million square meters, with a transaction value of 48.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 251% increase week-on-week [5]. - Shanghai's land auction saw significant activity, with multiple high-premium plots sold, including a residential plot in Hongkou District with a premium rate of 46.33% [6][12]. Price Records - Shanghai's Xuhui District set a new national record for land price at 200,000 yuan per square meter, while Suzhou also recorded a new high for residential land prices at 65,000 yuan per square meter [6][7]. - The report highlights that the average transaction price for new homes in Beijing has exceeded 70,000 yuan per square meter [4].

Core Viewpoint - The land supply scale has decreased week-on-week, while transaction volume has continued to rise, reaching a half-year weekly high, with a significant drop in premium rates, returning to the year's low [1]. Supply Summary - The supply of land this week was 4.26 million square meters, a 39% increase compared to the previous week [2]. - In key cities, 24 plots of residential land were supplied, with an average plot ratio of 1.81. Notably, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Wuxi had average plot ratios not exceeding 1.8 this week [2]. - Shanghai conducted seven batches of land auctions this week, with the highest total price for a plot in the Putuo District at 4.646 billion yuan, covering an area of 66,000 square meters, resulting in an average floor price of 70,000 yuan per square meter [2]. Transaction Summary - The transaction area reached 5.22 million square meters, a 54% increase week-on-week, with a transaction amount of 34.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 29% [3]. - The number of high total price and high premium transactions has decreased, with the average premium rate falling to 2.4%, the lowest level of the year [3]. - Notable transactions included a residential plot in Hangzhou with a total price of 1.91 billion yuan and a premium rate of 28%, and a plot in Nanjing that sold for 373 million yuan with a floor price of 40,000 yuan per square meter [4]. Key Transactions - In the top transactions, Hangzhou's residential plot was won by Weixing Real Estate for 1.91 billion yuan, with a floor price of 19,627 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 28% [8]. - In Nanjing, a plot in the Gulou District was acquired by Beigu Holdings for 373 million yuan, with a floor price of 40,215 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 33% [10]. - A high premium transaction occurred in Yongkang City, where a plot was sold for 510 million yuan, with a premium rate of 54% and an average floor price of 27,256 yuan per square meter [4].

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 6.35% as of July 27, up from 5.84% on July 20, marking an increase of 0.52 percentage points[2] - The land premium rate increased to 9% for the week ending July 27, with a four-week average of 6.9%, compared to 5.47% in June[11] Consumer Trends - Subway ridership in 27 cities averaged 81.53 million daily in July, roughly unchanged from last year, while domestic flight numbers increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 14,700 flights in early August[9] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles grew by 5% year-on-year as of July 27, down from 17% previously, indicating a slowdown in durable goods consumption[9] Trade and Shipping - Port container throughput fell by 6.5% week-on-week as of July 27, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.6%[24] - U.S. imports showed a decline, with a year-on-year drop of 20.5% in late July, and imports from China decreased by 25.6%[25] Commodity Prices - Prices for upstream photovoltaic materials and lithium carbonate have significantly dropped, with rebar prices down by 2.9% and lithium carbonate futures down by 13.7%[3] - The South China Glass Index fell by 19.1%, indicating a broader decline in commodity prices amid reduced "involution" sentiment[41] Debt and Financing - New special bond issuance reached 2.82 trillion yuan, achieving 64% of the annual target, faster than the previous year[5] - The Ministry of Finance reported six cases of local government hidden debt, emphasizing the need to manage and mitigate hidden debt risks[53]

Core Viewpoint - The land supply and demand scale experienced a seasonal decline in the first half of the year, with transaction volume dropping significantly, while the premium rate saw a notable increase, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment [1][2]. Supply - The supply of land this week was 3.19 million square meters, a 48% decrease from the previous week, marking a seasonal adjustment in the early half of the year [2]. - Key cities offered 32 plots of residential land with an average plot ratio of 2.04, while cities like Wuxi, Nantong, and Nanjing had average plot ratios not exceeding 1.5 [2]. - A notable plot in Shenzhen's Longhua District was listed with a base price of 1.554 billion yuan and a plot ratio of 3.1, indicating strong demand due to its proximity to transportation and established amenities [2]. Transaction - The transaction area was 2.25 million square meters, down 59% week-on-week, with a total transaction value of 14.5 billion yuan, a 63% decrease [2]. - Shenzhen recorded a high-premium residential land transaction, contributing to an average premium rate increase to 9.2%, returning to the annual average level [2]. High-Premium Transactions - In Shenzhen, a plot in Longhua District was sold for 2.37 billion yuan with a premium rate of 40.74%, reflecting strong competition among developers [3]. - A high-premium residential plot in Qingdao's Laoshan District was sold for 989 million yuan, with a premium rate of 17.78%, indicating robust demand in prime locations [3]. - Dongguan also saw a high-premium land transaction with a 22.1% premium rate, highlighting developers' pursuit of profitable opportunities amid market fluctuations [4]. Key Data - The top five land transactions by total price included Shenzhen's plot at 2.4 billion yuan and Qingdao's at 1 billion yuan, showcasing significant investment interest in these regions [7][9]. - The average floor price for the top transactions ranged from 13,637 yuan to 38,795 yuan per square meter, indicating varying levels of demand and competition across different cities [9].

Core Insights - The residential land transfer revenue for 300 cities in the first half of 2025 reached 0.86 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.5% [1] - The land transfer revenue in first-tier and second-tier cities grew by over 40%, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a slight decline [1] - The top 20 cities accounted for 68% of the national residential land transfer revenue, with Hangzhou and Beijing each surpassing 100 billion yuan in land transfer revenue [1][2] City Performance - First-tier cities showed significant investment activity from real estate companies, with land transfer revenue increasing by 49.5% year-on-year [2] - Second-tier cities also saw growth in land transfer revenue and transaction area, with increases of 43.5% and 18.3% respectively, and an average premium rate of 13.6% [2] - The land transfer revenue concentration in the top 20 cities increased from 51% in 2024 to approximately 68% in the first half of 2025 [2] Premium Rates and Market Trends - The average premium rate for residential land in 300 cities was 13.4% in Q1, dropping to 7.7% in Q2, with a further decline to 5.8% in June [1] - In the first half of the year, 39.2% of residential land transactions in 22 key cities were premium sales, an increase of 8.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The average premium rates for land in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu were notably high, with Hangzhou reaching 35.5% and several transactions exceeding 40% [3] Future Outlook - The trend of "reducing quantity and improving quality" in land supply is expected to continue in the second half of the year, particularly in core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [3] - The land market in most third and fourth-tier cities is likely to remain dominated by base-price transactions, with some cities potentially adjusting supply structures to attract investment [3] - Real estate companies are advised to focus on core cities with high market certainty while balancing new and existing projects, avoiding high-priced land acquisitions [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese land market in the first half of the year shows a "frozen and fiery" situation, with core cities experiencing fierce competition for high-quality land, while third and fourth-tier cities remain cold [1][12] - The total land transfer revenue from 300 cities reached 859.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, despite a 5.5% decrease in transaction area [3][12] - The top 20 cities accounted for 68% of the national land transfer revenue, with second-tier cities surpassing first-tier cities in average premium rates [2][4] Land Market Performance - In the first half of the year, 19 cities had land transfer revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Hangzhou and Beijing each surpassing 100 billion yuan [4][5] - Hangzhou's total transaction amount reached 116.1 billion yuan, a 96% increase year-on-year, nearing its total for the entire year of 2024 [5] - Beijing's residential land transaction total was 100.6 billion yuan, up 37.3% year-on-year, driven by high-value and scarce land parcels [5] Regional Disparities - Shanghai's residential land transactions totaled 63.8 billion yuan, with an additional 80 billion yuan from private agreements, bringing the total to over 140 billion yuan [6] - Chengdu increased the supply of quality land, with 56 parcels sold, 28 of which had premiums, including one with a premium rate of 106% [7] - In contrast, cities like Wuhan, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, and Tianjin saw most land sold at base prices due to large inventory and cautious investment from developers [8] Premium Rates and Investment Trends - The average premium rate for residential land across 300 cities was 10.2%, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year [11] - First-tier cities saw a 49.5% increase in land transfer revenue, while second-tier cities experienced an 18.3% increase in transaction area and a 43.5% increase in land transfer revenue [12] - The average premium rate for second-tier cities reached 13.6%, surpassing that of first-tier cities, indicating a shift in investment focus [12] Future Outlook - Companies are expected to prioritize project safety and profitability, with core areas in hot cities likely to maintain high premium transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities will continue to see base price sales [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The land transfer fees rebounded in the first half of 2025 after four years of decline, with significant differentiation among cities. The core cities increased the supply of high - quality land, attracting market - oriented real estate enterprises to bid, which is expected to boost the real estate sales volume at the end of the year. The supply of land in core cities may decrease in the second half of the year, and the market - oriented real estate enterprises' land - acquisition scale may decline, while the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies may increase [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First half of the year: Land transfer fees rebounded and cities were highly differentiated - After reaching a peak of 8.2 trillion yuan in 2020, the land transfer fees decreased for four consecutive years. From January to June 2025, they reached 1.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The rebound was mainly due to core cities increasing the supply of core land plots and the cancellation of price - limit policies, leading to high - premium competition among developers [5]. - The concentration of land auction amounts in key cities increased. The top 3, top 5, and top 15 cities in terms of transfer fees accounted for about 1/4, 1/3, and 1/2 of the national market share respectively, 6 - 9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][5]. - Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu stood out with high transfer fees and premium rates. After excluding these four cities, the transfer fees from January to June increased by only 0.4% year - on - year. After excluding the top 15 cities, the transfer fees decreased by 6% [1][14]. - Zhejiang, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Sichuan had relatively good land auction performances. Zhejiang, Beijing, and Shanghai had strong market - oriented land - acquisition forces, with transfer fees ranging from 700 billion to 220 billion yuan from January to June, year - on - year growth rates exceeding 20%, and the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies below 20%. Guangdong and Sichuan had transfer fees between 650 billion and 800 billion yuan, year - on - year growth rates exceeding 40%, and the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies between 20 - 40%. Nearly half of the provinces and cities had weak land markets, with 14 provinces and cities experiencing negative year - on - year growth in transfer fees, and 4 provinces (Jiangxi, Jilin, Shaanxi, Shandong) having a decline of over 25% [14]. 3.2 Second half of the year: The land supply in core cities may weaken, focus on Shanghai's July land auction - In July 2025, the starting price of land supply was 214.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 29%, indicating a weakening of overall land supply. The month - on - month decline in supply suggests that the transfer fees in July will likely be negative, but the year - on - year figure may be flat or have a minimum decline of 11% [2][18]. - In terms of high - value land plots (starting price over 2 billion yuan), most were concentrated in Shanghai in July. The starting price of Shanghai's land supply in July increased by 156% year - on - year and 18% month - on - month, involving prime locations such as Nanjing West Road and North Bund. It is expected that the land auction in Shanghai will remain hot in July. There was also one high - value land plot each in Suzhou and Hangzhou, with starting prices of 4.3 billion yuan and 2.7 billion yuan respectively [2][19]. - This year, the land supply in core cities may follow a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half. Market - oriented real estate enterprises may reduce their land - acquisition scale in the second half, while urban investment companies may enter the land auction market in non - core cities. According to historical data since 2021, the proportion of land acquired by urban investment companies usually rises in the fourth quarter, especially from November to December, reaching over 60% on average and over 80% in some third - and fourth - tier cities [2][22].

Group 1: Economic Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 24.8% year-on-year as of June 22, compared to 13.3% in May[1] - The Markit Manufacturing PMI for major overseas economies averaged 51.1 in June, up from 50.9 in May, with contributions mainly from Japan, India, and the UK[1] - The land premium rate rebounded to 7.3% in the week of June 22, with a three-week average of 3.2% compared to 4.93% in May[1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Subway ridership in 27 cities averaged 77.42 million daily, up 0.5% year-on-year, while domestic flight numbers were 12,700, up 0.7% year-on-year[2] - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities decreased by 16% year-on-year as of June 27, compared to a 13% decline in May[2] Group 3: Financial Indicators - As of June 30, 2025, new special bonds issued reached 2.16 trillion, accounting for 49.1% of the annual issuance plan, faster than last year's 37.8%[3] - The DR001 rate was 1.3683%, DR007 was 1.6968%, and R007 was 1.9201% as of June 27, with changes of -0.59bps, +20.27bps, and +32.91bps respectively[3]