Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily attributed to three factors: high base effect, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing [3][80]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 18,649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 22,582.5 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year [2][79]. - In October 2025, broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, a drop of 21.4 percentage points compared to September, while broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from September [3][8][80]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%, indicating a historically low level for October [3][8][80]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Expenditure Decline - The decline in October's broad fiscal expenditure is partly due to the high base effect from the same period in 2024, where expenditure had increased significantly [3][13][80]. - Government debt net financing in October 2025 was at a historically low level, with a year-on-year decrease of 5,602 billion yuan, which negatively impacted both social financing growth and fiscal expenditure growth [4][19][81]. - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other financial instruments, has also contributed to the decline in expenditure growth [4][19][81]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Support Measures - As new incremental funds are deployed, the support from fiscal and quasi-fiscal measures for the economy is expected to accelerate towards the end of the year [5][82]. - Two types of incremental funds have been established to address the weakening fiscal expenditure pressure in the fourth quarter: 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments and 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits [4][24][82]. - The focus of these funds includes digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumption, particularly supporting economically significant provinces [4][24][82]. Group 4: Revenue Trends - Broad fiscal revenue in October 2025 decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, with government fund revenue dropping significantly by 18.4% [6][28][83]. - General fiscal revenue showed a slight increase of 3.2% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue saw a substantial decline of 33% [40][83]. - The completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in October was 9.3%, higher than 9% in 2024 and the five-year average of 8.8% [6][28][83].

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%[6] Fiscal Spending Decline - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure plummeted to -19.1%, a decrease of 21.4 percentage points compared to September[1] - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%[7] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in fiscal expenditure is attributed to three main factors: high base effect from 2024, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing[1] - Broad fiscal revenue in October fell by -0.6%, a drop of 3.8 percentage points from September, with government fund revenue down by -18.4%[4] Government Debt Financing - Government net financing in October 2025 decreased by 5,602 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth[3] - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and support for commercial banks, has been largely completed by mid-August[3] Future Outlook - With the implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and another 500 billion yuan in local debt limits, there may be a recovery in fiscal expenditure growth towards the end of the year[4] - The support from "quasi-fiscal" funds is expected to accelerate as these funds are deployed in key sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence[4]

Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily attributed to three factors: high base effect, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing [3][80]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, growing by 2% [2][79]. - In October 2025, broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, a drop of 21.4 percentage points compared to September, while broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from September [3][80]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%, indicating a historically low level for October [3][80]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Expenditure Decline - The decline in October's broad fiscal expenditure was partly due to the high base effect from the same month in 2024, where expenditure had surged by 20.4% year-on-year [3][13]. - Government debt net financing in October 2025 was significantly lower, with a year-on-year decrease of 5,602 billion yuan, which negatively impacted both social financing growth and fiscal expenditure growth [4][19][81]. - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other financial instruments, has been largely completed by mid-August, limiting the available resources for October [4][19][81]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Support Measures - To address the weakening fiscal expenditure in the fourth quarter, two types of incremental funds have been introduced: 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments and another 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits [4][24][82]. - The implementation of these funds is expected to enhance the support for the economy towards the end of the year, potentially leading to a recovery in broad fiscal expenditure growth [5][82]. - The focus of the new policy financial instruments includes digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumption, particularly aimed at supporting major economic provinces [4][24][82].