Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance amounts, special bond issuance progress, and issuance term changes [1][5][6] Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **3/9 - 3/15 Forecasted Issuance**: 135.545 billion yuan, including 37.13 billion yuan of new bonds (19.395 billion yuan of new general bonds and 17.734 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 98.415 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (55.256 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 43.16 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5] - **3/2 - 3/8 Actual Issuance**: 272.484 billion yuan, including 82.961 billion yuan of new bonds (4.792 billion yuan of new general bonds and 78.169 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 189.523 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (54.328 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 135.195 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][6] 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of March 8, the fifth round, second batch of special refinancing bonds totaled 200 billion yuan, and the fifth round, third batch totaled 78.5955 billion yuan, with an additional 2.2843 billion yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth round, third batch were Jiangsu (8.1159 billion yuan), Zhejiang (5.64 billion yuan), and Hunan (5.16 billion yuan) [7] - **Special New Special Bonds**: As of March 8, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 9.4606 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 255.4672 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions were Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Henan (13.2534 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions were Zhejiang (1.17 billion yuan), Guangdong (1.096 billion yuan), and Hunan (1.03 billion yuan) [7] 3. Regional Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - In March 2026, the planned issuance of local government bonds nationwide was 83.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.12 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The actual disclosed issuance was 40.8 billion yuan, with an expected repayment of 41.91 billion yuan and a net financing of 41.14 billion yuan [8] 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - **3/2 - 3/8**: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 17.95 years, that of national bonds was 0.54 years, and that of government bonds was 11.79 years [9] - **3/9 - 3/15**: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 10.15 years, that of national bonds was 0.17 years, and that of government bonds was 2.89 years [9] - **As of March 6, 2026**: The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 17.46 years, an increase of 0.5 years compared to the same period in 2025; that of national bonds was 5.79 years, an increase of 1.4 years; and that of government bonds was 6.12 years, a decrease of 4.1 years [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increase in long-term local government bond issuance due to the extension of special refinancing bond terms, with the average issuance term for special refinancing bonds increasing by 10.3 years from 2023 to 2025 [1] - In 2025, the average issuance term for special refinancing bonds is projected to be 18.9 years, with over half of the bonds having terms exceeding 25 years, particularly concentrated in key provinces [1] - The average issuance term for new bonds in 2025 is expected to be 16.8 years, showing little change over the past three years, but with significant variation among provinces [1] Group 2 - The issuance plan for local government bonds in Q1 2026 indicates a focus on refinancing bonds, with a total planned issuance amount of 1.5934 trillion yuan, including 116.4 billion yuan in new general bonds and 483.5 billion yuan in new special bonds [2] - The refinancing ratio for local government bonds from 2020 to 2025 has remained stable, with the principal repayment ratio consistently between 10% and 15% [2] - The issuance of local government bonds in 2026 is expected to balance issuance costs and repayment pressures, with a potential reduction in issuance terms compared to 2024 and 2025 [2] Group 3 - The peak issuance of new local government bonds in 2026 is anticipated to occur in the second and third quarters, with Q1 primarily focused on refinancing bonds [3] - Historical data suggests that during peak issuance months, the scale may reach 800 to 1,000 billion yuan, with 90% of the annual issuance typically completed by the end of September [3] - The fourth quarter will mainly focus on the remaining issuance quotas and balances from previous years, with specific amounts of 400 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan from 2024 and 2025, respectively [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance term of local government bonds in Q1 2026 may set the tone for the whole year, and the issuance in 2026 is expected to further balance issuance costs and maturity repayment pressure [2] - The issuance of new local government bonds before the Spring Festival in 2026 may not result in physical work, and the peak issuance of new local government bonds may occur in the second and third quarters [2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Two - year Increase in Long - term Local Government Bond Supply, Mainly Due to the Lengthening of Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Terms - Since the implementation of debt resolution policies, the supply of long - term local government bonds has continued to increase. In 2025, compared with 2023, the issuance term increased by 3.0 years. The issuance term of special refinancing bonds increased by 10.3 years, and those of new bonds and refinancing bonds increased by 0.3 years and 1.3 years respectively [2][7] - In 2025, the average issuance term of special refinancing bonds was 18.9 years, an increase of 10.3 years compared with 2023. Seven provinces had an average issuance term of over 25 years, with more than half being key provinces [7] - In 2025, the average issuance term of new bonds was 16.8 years, with little change in the past 3 years, but significant regional differentiation. Four provinces saw an increase of over 5 years in issuance terms [7] - In 2025, the average issuance term of refinancing bonds was 9.6 years, an increase of 1.3 years compared with 2023. Twenty - four out of 31 provinces had lengthened issuance terms, and three provinces had an increase of over 5 years [7] 3.2 The Issuance Term of Local Government Bonds in Q1 2026 May Set the Tone for the Whole Year - As of December 27, 22 provinces and municipalities had announced their Q1 2026 issuance plans, with a total amount of 1593.4 billion yuan. The amount of new general bonds was 116.4 billion yuan, new special bonds was 483.5 billion yuan, and refinancing bonds was 993.5 billion yuan. The front - loading of replacement bonds is clear [2][8] - The issuance term of local government bonds in Q1 2026 may set the tone for the whole year. The proportion of replacement bonds in the Q1 2026 issuance plan may be relatively high. The lengthening of replacement bond terms was the main reason for the increase in long - term local government bond supply in the past two years [2][9] - In 2026, the issuance of local government bonds will further balance issuance costs and maturity repayment pressure. From the perspective of refinancing, the principal repayment ratio after local government bond maturity is between 10% - 15%. In volatile and bull markets, reducing the proportion of 15 - year, 20 - year (curve convex points), and 30 - year (high issuance cost) local government bonds is more advantageous; during interest rate adjustment periods, lengthening the term can lock in issuance costs. The issuance term in 2026 may be reduced compared with 2024 and 2025 [2][10][11] 3.3 Supply Rhythm: Replacement Bonds May Be Front - loaded, and the Peak of Special Bond Issuance May Occur in the Second and Third Quarters - In 2026, the Spring Festival falls in mid - to - late February. Issuing new local government bonds before the Spring Festival may not result in physical work. The first - quarter issuance may be mainly replacement bonds, and the peak issuance of new local government bonds may occur in the second and third quarters [13] - Q1: The issuance of replacement bonds is expected to be front - loaded to promote the repayment of implicit debts of financing platforms and the exit of financing platforms [13] - Q2 and Q3: After the second batch of local government bond quotas is released, there may be a peak in the issuance of new local government bonds. Historically, the monthly issuance scale during the peak may reach 800 - 1000 billion yuan, and the issuance progress of new local government bonds may reach around 90% by the end of September each year [13] - Q4: The remaining quotas and unused limits of new local government bonds will be issued. The unused limits in 2024 and 2025 were 400 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan respectively, and the Ministry of Finance issued them in the fourth quarter [13]