报告导读： 地方债 26Q1 发行期限或将定调全年，进一步兼顾发行成本与到期偿付压 力。 近两年长期限地方债供给增加，主要原因在于特殊再融资债发行期限的拉长。 化债政策落地以来，长期限地方债供给持续增加， 2025 年相较 2023 年发行 期限增加 3.0 年，其中特殊再融资债发行期限增加 10.3Y ，新增债和再融资债发行期限分别增加 0.3Y 和 1.3Y 。具体来看：（ 1 ）特殊再融资债方面， 2025 年平均发行期限 18.9Y ，相较 2023 年增加 10.3Y ，其中平均发行期限超过 25Y 的共有 7 个，重点省份占比过半；（ 2 ）新增债方面， 2025 年 平均发行期限 16.8Y ，过去 3 年变化不大，但各省份发行期限分化较为明显（ 3 ）再融资债方面， 2025 年平均发行期限 9.6Y ，相较 2023 年增加 1.3Y ， 31 个省份中有 24 个再融资债发行期限在拉长。 地方债 26Q1 发行期限或将定调全年。 26 年的地方债发行，有望进一步兼顾发行成本与到期偿付压力。 （ 1 ）地方债 26Q1 发行计划看，置换债前置基 调明确， 26Q1 发行期限或将定调全年。截至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance term of local government bonds in Q1 2026 may set the tone for the whole year, and the issuance in 2026 is expected to further balance issuance costs and maturity repayment pressure [2] - The issuance of new local government bonds before the Spring Festival in 2026 may not result in physical work, and the peak issuance of new local government bonds may occur in the second and third quarters [2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Two - year Increase in Long - term Local Government Bond Supply, Mainly Due to the Lengthening of Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Terms - Since the implementation of debt resolution policies, the supply of long - term local government bonds has continued to increase. In 2025, compared with 2023, the issuance term increased by 3.0 years. The issuance term of special refinancing bonds increased by 10.3 years, and those of new bonds and refinancing bonds increased by 0.3 years and 1.3 years respectively [2][7] - In 2025, the average issuance term of special refinancing bonds was 18.9 years, an increase of 10.3 years compared with 2023. Seven provinces had an average issuance term of over 25 years, with more than half being key provinces [7] - In 2025, the average issuance term of new bonds was 16.8 years, with little change in the past 3 years, but significant regional differentiation. Four provinces saw an increase of over 5 years in issuance terms [7] - In 2025, the average issuance term of refinancing bonds was 9.6 years, an increase of 1.3 years compared with 2023. Twenty - four out of 31 provinces had lengthened issuance terms, and three provinces had an increase of over 5 years [7] 3.2 The Issuance Term of Local Government Bonds in Q1 2026 May Set the Tone for the Whole Year - As of December 27, 22 provinces and municipalities had announced their Q1 2026 issuance plans, with a total amount of 1593.4 billion yuan. The amount of new general bonds was 116.4 billion yuan, new special bonds was 483.5 billion yuan, and refinancing bonds was 993.5 billion yuan. The front - loading of replacement bonds is clear [2][8] - The issuance term of local government bonds in Q1 2026 may set the tone for the whole year. The proportion of replacement bonds in the Q1 2026 issuance plan may be relatively high. The lengthening of replacement bond terms was the main reason for the increase in long - term local government bond supply in the past two years [2][9] - In 2026, the issuance of local government bonds will further balance issuance costs and maturity repayment pressure. From the perspective of refinancing, the principal repayment ratio after local government bond maturity is between 10% - 15%. In volatile and bull markets, reducing the proportion of 15 - year, 20 - year (curve convex points), and 30 - year (high issuance cost) local government bonds is more advantageous; during interest rate adjustment periods, lengthening the term can lock in issuance costs. The issuance term in 2026 may be reduced compared with 2024 and 2025 [2][10][11] 3.3 Supply Rhythm: Replacement Bonds May Be Front - loaded, and the Peak of Special Bond Issuance May Occur in the Second and Third Quarters - In 2026, the Spring Festival falls in mid - to - late February. Issuing new local government bonds before the Spring Festival may not result in physical work. The first - quarter issuance may be mainly replacement bonds, and the peak issuance of new local government bonds may occur in the second and third quarters [13] - Q1: The issuance of replacement bonds is expected to be front - loaded to promote the repayment of implicit debts of financing platforms and the exit of financing platforms [13] - Q2 and Q3: After the second batch of local government bond quotas is released, there may be a peak in the issuance of new local government bonds. Historically, the monthly issuance scale during the peak may reach 800 - 1000 billion yuan, and the issuance progress of new local government bonds may reach around 90% by the end of September each year [13] - Q4: The remaining quotas and unused limits of new local government bonds will be issued. The unused limits in 2024 and 2025 were 400 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan respectively, and the Ministry of Finance issued them in the fourth quarter [13]