报告导读： 地方债 26Q1 发行期限或将定调全年，进一步兼顾发行成本与到期偿付压 力。 近两年长期限地方债供给增加，主要原因在于特殊再融资债发行期限的拉长。 化债政策落地以来，长期限地方债供给持续增加， 2025 年相较 2023 年发行 期限增加 3.0 年，其中特殊再融资债发行期限增加 10.3Y ，新增债和再融资债发行期限分别增加 0.3Y 和 1.3Y 。具体来看：（ 1 ）特殊再融资债方面， 2025 年平均发行期限 18.9Y ，相较 2023 年增加 10.3Y ，其中平均发行期限超过 25Y 的共有 7 个，重点省份占比过半；（ 2 ）新增债方面， 2025 年 平均发行期限 16.8Y ，过去 3 年变化不大，但各省份发行期限分化较为明显（ 3 ）再融资债方面， 2025 年平均发行期限 9.6Y ，相较 2023 年增加 1.3Y ， 31 个省份中有 24 个再融资债发行期限在拉长。 地方债 26Q1 发行期限或将定调全年。 26 年的地方债发行，有望进一步兼顾发行成本与到期偿付压力。 （ 1 ）地方债 26Q1 发行计划看，置换债前置基 调明确， 26Q1 发行期限或将定调全年。截至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance term of local government bonds in Q1 2026 may set the tone for the whole year, and the issuance in 2026 is expected to further balance issuance costs and maturity repayment pressure [2] - The issuance of new local government bonds before the Spring Festival in 2026 may not result in physical work, and the peak issuance of new local government bonds may occur in the second and third quarters [2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Two - year Increase in Long - term Local Government Bond Supply, Mainly Due to the Lengthening of Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Terms - Since the implementation of debt resolution policies, the supply of long - term local government bonds has continued to increase. In 2025, compared with 2023, the issuance term increased by 3.0 years. The issuance term of special refinancing bonds increased by 10.3 years, and those of new bonds and refinancing bonds increased by 0.3 years and 1.3 years respectively [2][7] - In 2025, the average issuance term of special refinancing bonds was 18.9 years, an increase of 10.3 years compared with 2023. Seven provinces had an average issuance term of over 25 years, with more than half being key provinces [7] - In 2025, the average issuance term of new bonds was 16.8 years, with little change in the past 3 years, but significant regional differentiation. Four provinces saw an increase of over 5 years in issuance terms [7] - In 2025, the average issuance term of refinancing bonds was 9.6 years, an increase of 1.3 years compared with 2023. Twenty - four out of 31 provinces had lengthened issuance terms, and three provinces had an increase of over 5 years [7] 3.2 The Issuance Term of Local Government Bonds in Q1 2026 May Set the Tone for the Whole Year - As of December 27, 22 provinces and municipalities had announced their Q1 2026 issuance plans, with a total amount of 1593.4 billion yuan. The amount of new general bonds was 116.4 billion yuan, new special bonds was 483.5 billion yuan, and refinancing bonds was 993.5 billion yuan. The front - loading of replacement bonds is clear [2][8] - The issuance term of local government bonds in Q1 2026 may set the tone for the whole year. The proportion of replacement bonds in the Q1 2026 issuance plan may be relatively high. The lengthening of replacement bond terms was the main reason for the increase in long - term local government bond supply in the past two years [2][9] - In 2026, the issuance of local government bonds will further balance issuance costs and maturity repayment pressure. From the perspective of refinancing, the principal repayment ratio after local government bond maturity is between 10% - 15%. In volatile and bull markets, reducing the proportion of 15 - year, 20 - year (curve convex points), and 30 - year (high issuance cost) local government bonds is more advantageous; during interest rate adjustment periods, lengthening the term can lock in issuance costs. The issuance term in 2026 may be reduced compared with 2024 and 2025 [2][10][11] 3.3 Supply Rhythm: Replacement Bonds May Be Front - loaded, and the Peak of Special Bond Issuance May Occur in the Second and Third Quarters - In 2026, the Spring Festival falls in mid - to - late February. Issuing new local government bonds before the Spring Festival may not result in physical work. The first - quarter issuance may be mainly replacement bonds, and the peak issuance of new local government bonds may occur in the second and third quarters [13] - Q1: The issuance of replacement bonds is expected to be front - loaded to promote the repayment of implicit debts of financing platforms and the exit of financing platforms [13] - Q2 and Q3: After the second batch of local government bond quotas is released, there may be a peak in the issuance of new local government bonds. Historically, the monthly issuance scale during the peak may reach 800 - 1000 billion yuan, and the issuance progress of new local government bonds may reach around 90% by the end of September each year [13] - Q4: The remaining quotas and unused limits of new local government bonds will be issued. The unused limits in 2024 and 2025 were 400 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan respectively, and the Ministry of Finance issued them in the fourth quarter [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week ending May 26, 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: The issuance volume of local government bonds increased this week, but the net financing decreased. The total issuance volume was 248.5 billion yuan, with a repayment volume of 105.9 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 142.6 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The proportion of long - term bond issuance decreased. The 10 - year bonds had the highest issuance proportion (33%), and bonds with a term of 10 years and above accounted for 75%, a decrease from last week [1][12]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: Special refinancing bonds worth 25.1 billion yuan were issued this week. As of now, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.6291 trillion yuan [2][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds narrowed compared to last week, reaching 11bp. The 30 - year bonds had the highest spread at 18.4bp. Except for the 1 - year bonds, the spreads of other terms narrowed [1][25]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: The funds raised from new special bonds in 2025 have mainly been allocated to cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure (33%), transportation infrastructure (21%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocations increased by 7.6% compared to 2024 [2][28]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the second quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance volume in April, the total planned issuance volume for the second quarter is expected to reach 2.2 trillion yuan, with 672.7 billion yuan and 855.1 billion yuan planned for May and June respectively [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: The 30 - year and 15 - year local government bonds had favorable secondary spreads. The 30 - year and 15 - year bonds had relatively high spreads of 20.1bp and 18.9bp respectively. The 30 - year bond's secondary spread was at a high historical percentile of 89% over the past three years [4][35]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased this week. Anhui, Sichuan, and Zhejiang had relatively high turnover rates. The total trading volume was 436 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.86%. Sichuan, Zhejiang, and Anhui had large trading volumes of 42.6 billion yuan, 40.4 billion yuan, and 35.6 billion yuan respectively, and their turnover rates were all above 1.6% [5][40].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that local government bond issuance may accelerate in the second quarter of 2025, but the impact on the market is expected to be relatively limited due to monetary policy coordination [2][23][28] - In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance pace of new bonds was slower compared to the same period in 2023, but the progress of replacing hidden debts was faster, with over two-thirds of the 2 trillion yuan quota already issued [2][11] - The second quarter is expected to see a significant increase in the issuance of special bonds, particularly those with a maturity of 10 years or more, driven by growth stabilization demands and policy guidance [2][13][16] Group 2 - Banks remain the main investors in local government bonds, but there has been a noticeable increase in the willingness of broad-based funds to allocate to these bonds since October 2023, with their investment share rising from 5.44% to 8.54% by February 2025 [3][28] - Different types of institutions have varying preferences for bond maturities, with insurance companies favoring long-term bonds (10 years and above), while fund companies have shown a tendency to chase market trends and are now focusing on bonds with maturities of 7 years and above [3][32] Group 3 - Local government bonds currently offer high value for both allocation and trading, with their liquidity being weaker than that of treasury bonds, leading to a lag in market performance [4][38] - The current yield spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds indicates a favorable price-performance ratio, with the spread for 10-year bonds reaching around 30 basis points, suggesting good investment opportunities [5][43][47] - The article recommends focusing on bonds with maturities of 5 years and above, particularly 15-year bonds, which exhibit strong value for allocation [6][43]