专家预计2026年的地方财政收入实际增长会好于预算安排。 随着各地陆续披露今年预算报告和政府工作报告，31个省份2026年财政收入增速目标明晰，总体来看地方普遍预计今年一般公共预算收入能够实现增长。 根据各地官方数据，2026年31个省份地方一般公共预算收入预计增速在0.5%~10%之间。粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒以2025年各地一般公共预算收入作 为权重测算，今年31个省份一般公共预算收入目标加权平均增长2.7%，与2025年基本持平。 辽宁大学地方财政研究院院长王振宇告诉第一财经，地方财政收入增长有赖于经济的良性循环，更与各类价格变动息息相关，在经济稳定增长和强有力的 宏观政策作用下，预计2026年的地方财政收入实际增长会好于预算安排。 收入预期务实稳妥 近期各省份陆续披露了当地2025年预算执行情况和2026年预算草案报告，其中预算报告一大看点，正是各地对2026年财政收入及增速的预期，这一方面反 映了地方政府对当年经济财政形势的预判；另一方面，在财政"以收定支"原则之下，财政收入情形又与民生保障及政府推动经济增长密切相关，因此备受 关注。 经济决定财政。根据今年31个省份政府工作报告，地方政府普遍预计 ...

2026.02.09 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 与2024年相比，山西、陕西、内蒙古三地2025年收入规模排名有所下降。这与三地2025年财政收入有所 下滑直接相关。 各地的财政收入规模与当地经济总量、产业结构等直接相关，一般来说经济总量越大，税收贡献大的产 业越多，地方盘活存量资源资产力度越大等，相应地财政收入规模越高。比如，2025年广东、江苏、山 东、浙江经济总量稳居全国前四，四地财政收入规模也位居全国前列。 作者 |第一财经 陈益刊 随着地方近期陆续披露当地政府"账本"，2025年31省份地方一般公共预算收入（下称"财政收入"）规模 随之揭晓。 | 省份 | 2025地方一般公共预算收入(亿元) | 同比增长(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 广东 | 13939 | 3 | | 江苏 | 10246 | 2. 1 | | 浙江 | 8865 | 1.8 | | 上海 | 8501 | 1.5 | | 山东 | 7864 | 2 | | 北京 | 6681 | 4.8 | | 116 | 5854 | 3.9 | | 河南 | 4502 | 2.5 | | 河北 | ...

本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 随着地方近期陆续披露当地政府"账本"，2025年31省份地方一般公共预算收入（下称"财政收 入"）规模随之揭晓。 | 省份 | 2025地方一般公共预算收入(亿元) | 同比增长(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 广东 | 13939 | 3 | | 江苏 | 10246 | 2. 1 | | 加江 | 8865 | 1.8 | | 上海 | 8501 | 1.5 | | 山东 | 7864 | 2 | | 北京 | 6681 | 4.8 | | 国川 | 5854 | 3.9 | | 河南 | 4502 | 2. 5 | | 河北 | 4399 | 2 | | 湖北 | 4211 | 6. 9 | | 安徽 | 4157 | 2.9 | | 福建 | 3723 | 3 | | 湖南 | 3508 | 1.7 | | 陕西 | 3289 | -3.1 | | mg | 3219 | -9.1 | | 江西 | 3079 | 0. 4 | | 内蒙古 | 3005 | -4. 6 | | 辽宁 | 2918 | 0. 4 | ...

地方财政运行总体平稳。 随着地方近期陆续披露当地政府"账本"，2025年31省份地方一般公共预算收入（下称"财政收入"）规模随之揭晓。 | 省份 | 2025地方一般公共预算收入(亿元) | 同比增1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 广东 | 13939 | 3 | | 江苏 | 10246 | 2. | | 浙江 | 8865 | 1. | | 上海 | 8501 | 1. | | 山东 | 7864 | 2 | | 北京 | 6681 | 4. | | 四川 | 5854 | 3. | | 河南 | 4502 | 2. | | 河北 | 4399 | 2 | | 湖北 | 4211 | 6. | | 安徽 | 4157 | 2. | | 福建 | 3723 | 3 | | 湖南 | 3508 | 1. | | 陕西 | 3289 | -3. | | 山西 | 3219 | -9. | | 江西 | 3079 | 0. | | 内蒙古 | 3005 | -4. | | 辽宁 | 2918 | 0. | | 重庆 | 2736 | 5. | | 新疆 | 2662 | 10. | | 云南 | ...

Core Insights - The overall local public budget revenue in China is expected to see slight growth in 2025, with various provinces reporting different growth rates in their fiscal revenues [1][4]. Group 1: Revenue Growth - Henan Province's public budget revenue is projected to be 450.17 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.5% [1] - Hunan Province's public budget revenue is expected to reach 350.71 billion yuan, also growing by 2.5% [1] - Gansu Province anticipates a public budget revenue of 111.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [1] - Nanchang City in Jiangxi Province reported a public budget revenue of 53.78 billion yuan, up by 2.2% [2] - Ningde City in Fujian Province expects a revenue of approximately 27.2 billion yuan, showing a growth of 7% [2] - Liaocheng City in Shandong Province reported a revenue of about 26.5 billion yuan, increasing by 3% [2] - Changde City in Hunan Province's revenue is around 19.3 billion yuan, with a slight growth of 0.31% [2] - Baoji City in Shaanxi Province reported a revenue of about 11.2 billion yuan, up by 3.09% [2] Group 2: Revenue Decline - Jiujiang City in Jiangxi Province reported a public budget revenue of approximately 32.2 billion yuan, down by 1.2% [3] - Yongzhou City in Hunan Province's revenue is 14.62 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 9.3% [3] Group 3: Overall Fiscal Performance - The overall local public budget revenue for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 1.12 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, closely aligning with the expected annual growth target of 3% [4] Group 4: Expenditure Trends - In 2025, Henan Province's public budget expenditure is projected to be 1.15161 trillion yuan, growing by 0.5%, with 73.8% allocated to social welfare [5] - Gansu Province anticipates a public budget expenditure of 490.07 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.4%, with significant increases in health, social security, and education spending [5] Group 5: Government Bonds - Gansu Province plans to issue 82.91 billion yuan in new government bonds in 2025 to support infrastructure and improve living conditions [6] - The total issuance of local government bonds in 2025 is expected to exceed 10.29 trillion yuan, marking the first time it surpasses 10 trillion yuan [6]

Core Insights - Dali Prefecture's fiscal revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected to remain slightly above 10 billion yuan, with a possibility of falling below this threshold if the fourth quarter continues to decline [1] Fiscal Revenue Overview - Dali Prefecture's local fiscal revenue reached 7.279 billion yuan from January to September 2025, an increase of 58 million yuan compared to the same period in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [3] - The growth rate has decreased by 0.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, and Dali Prefecture ranks seventh in Yunnan Province, with a widening gap from Chuxiong Prefecture, which reported 7.918 billion yuan [3] Revenue Composition - Tax revenue amounted to 4.655 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, while non-tax revenue was 2.624 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 7.4% [3] - The strong performance in tax revenue has led to an increase in the tax ratio to 64%, indicating an improvement in the quality of fiscal revenue [3] County-Level Performance - Among the counties and cities, Dali City reported the highest revenue at 2.386 billion yuan, with an 8.7% increase year-on-year [4] - Heqing County showed the fastest growth rate at 17.4%, while several counties, including Lijiang County and Yungong County, experienced negative growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing severe oversupply, yet developers continue to acquire land and build properties due to various economic and operational factors [1][3][12] Group 1: Reasons for Continued Land Acquisition - Local fiscal revenue is heavily reliant on land sales, with approximately 6.4 trillion yuan expected in land transfer income for 2024, accounting for 15%-30% of local government revenue [3][4] - Developers must continue acquiring land to maintain cash flow and secure loans from banks, as halting construction could lead to bankruptcy due to cash flow issues [7][12] - There remains a demand for housing in major cities, where developers focus on high-end projects, ensuring better sales prospects and higher returns [8][12] Group 2: Economic Impact - The real estate sector and its related industries employ around 56 million people in construction and over 80 million in material production and distribution, making the sector vital for local economies [10] - The real estate industry contributes significantly to local GDP, with its share ranging from 25%-30%, indicating that reduced activity in this sector could have substantial negative economic repercussions [10][12] Group 3: Challenges in Transition - Developers face significant challenges in transitioning to other industries due to their long-standing expertise in real estate, making it difficult to shift focus away from property development [11][12]

Core Insights - Local fiscal revenue has shown slow growth while expenditures continue to expand, leading to significant fiscal imbalances [1][6] - As of June, 17 provinces have disclosed their general public budget revenue and expenditure for the first five months of 2025, with 15 provinces reporting revenue growth [1][2] Revenue Growth Analysis - Among the 17 provinces, Jilin Province reported the highest revenue growth at 15%, significantly above the national average of -0.3% [2][3] - Non-tax revenue in Jilin increased by 30.6%, driven by a 104.6% rise in income from the paid use of state-owned resources [3] - Qinghai Province followed Jilin with a revenue growth rate of 7.4%, attributed to a 60.2% increase in non-tax revenue [4] Expenditure Trends - Expenditure growth among the 17 provinces remains robust, with Shanghai leading at 14.2%, while other provinces show single-digit growth [6] - Despite the overall increase in expenditures, 16 out of 17 provinces reported expenditures exceeding revenues, a trend consistent with previous years [6][7] Land Sales and Fiscal Health - The revenue from land sales, a crucial source of income for local governments, has declined, with a 11.9% drop in the first five months of the year [7][8] - Specific provinces like Shaanxi and Jilin experienced significant declines in land sale revenues, with drops of approximately 42.3% and 33.5% respectively [8] Conclusion - The combination of slow revenue growth, rising expenditures, and declining land sale revenues indicates ongoing fiscal challenges for local governments, necessitating adjustments in budget strategies [6][7]