2025年全国地方一般公共预算收入预计小幅增长 一些收入规模超百亿的城市也披露了去年全年财政收入数据，部分地方财政收入实现增长。 随着2025年过去，一些地方开始披露2025年全年财政收支情况。 1月6日，河南省财政厅厅长赵庆业在省政府新闻办发布会上表示，河南省财政运行稳中有进、稳中向 好。2025年，河南全省一般公共预算收入4501.7亿元，增长2.5%。 湖南省政府官网数据显示，2025年全省地方一般公共预算收入达到3507.1亿元，同口径增长2.5%。 根据甘肃省财政厅近日披露数据，2025年，甘肃全省一般公共预算收入1112.4亿元，同比增长5.7%。 计划单列市—青岛市财政局数据显示，2025年该市地方一般公共预算收入完成1340.7亿元，略微高于 2024年全年。 根据各地财政部门公开数据，2025年江西省南昌市一般公共预算收入（537.8亿元）同比增长2.2%；福 建省宁德市这一收入（约272亿元）同比增长7%；山东省聊城市这一收入（约265亿元）同比增长3%； 湖南省常德市这一收入（约193亿元）同比增长0.31%。陕西省宝鸡市这一收入（约112亿元）同比增长 3.09％。 当然也有些地方财政 ...

Core Insights - Dali Prefecture's fiscal revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected to remain slightly above 10 billion yuan, with a possibility of falling below this threshold if the fourth quarter continues to decline [1] Fiscal Revenue Overview - Dali Prefecture's local fiscal revenue reached 7.279 billion yuan from January to September 2025, an increase of 58 million yuan compared to the same period in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [3] - The growth rate has decreased by 0.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, and Dali Prefecture ranks seventh in Yunnan Province, with a widening gap from Chuxiong Prefecture, which reported 7.918 billion yuan [3] Revenue Composition - Tax revenue amounted to 4.655 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, while non-tax revenue was 2.624 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 7.4% [3] - The strong performance in tax revenue has led to an increase in the tax ratio to 64%, indicating an improvement in the quality of fiscal revenue [3] County-Level Performance - Among the counties and cities, Dali City reported the highest revenue at 2.386 billion yuan, with an 8.7% increase year-on-year [4] - Heqing County showed the fastest growth rate at 17.4%, while several counties, including Lijiang County and Yungong County, experienced negative growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing severe oversupply, yet developers continue to acquire land and build properties due to various economic and operational factors [1][3][12] Group 1: Reasons for Continued Land Acquisition - Local fiscal revenue is heavily reliant on land sales, with approximately 6.4 trillion yuan expected in land transfer income for 2024, accounting for 15%-30% of local government revenue [3][4] - Developers must continue acquiring land to maintain cash flow and secure loans from banks, as halting construction could lead to bankruptcy due to cash flow issues [7][12] - There remains a demand for housing in major cities, where developers focus on high-end projects, ensuring better sales prospects and higher returns [8][12] Group 2: Economic Impact - The real estate sector and its related industries employ around 56 million people in construction and over 80 million in material production and distribution, making the sector vital for local economies [10] - The real estate industry contributes significantly to local GDP, with its share ranging from 25%-30%, indicating that reduced activity in this sector could have substantial negative economic repercussions [10][12] Group 3: Challenges in Transition - Developers face significant challenges in transitioning to other industries due to their long-standing expertise in real estate, making it difficult to shift focus away from property development [11][12]

Core Insights - Local fiscal revenue has shown slow growth while expenditures continue to expand, leading to significant fiscal imbalances [1][6] - As of June, 17 provinces have disclosed their general public budget revenue and expenditure for the first five months of 2025, with 15 provinces reporting revenue growth [1][2] Revenue Growth Analysis - Among the 17 provinces, Jilin Province reported the highest revenue growth at 15%, significantly above the national average of -0.3% [2][3] - Non-tax revenue in Jilin increased by 30.6%, driven by a 104.6% rise in income from the paid use of state-owned resources [3] - Qinghai Province followed Jilin with a revenue growth rate of 7.4%, attributed to a 60.2% increase in non-tax revenue [4] Expenditure Trends - Expenditure growth among the 17 provinces remains robust, with Shanghai leading at 14.2%, while other provinces show single-digit growth [6] - Despite the overall increase in expenditures, 16 out of 17 provinces reported expenditures exceeding revenues, a trend consistent with previous years [6][7] Land Sales and Fiscal Health - The revenue from land sales, a crucial source of income for local governments, has declined, with a 11.9% drop in the first five months of the year [7][8] - Specific provinces like Shaanxi and Jilin experienced significant declines in land sale revenues, with drops of approximately 42.3% and 33.5% respectively [8] Conclusion - The combination of slow revenue growth, rising expenditures, and declining land sale revenues indicates ongoing fiscal challenges for local governments, necessitating adjustments in budget strategies [6][7]