联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 ，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘大致平开，全天横向窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 债期货主力合约 TL2606 下跌 0.07%，10 年期 T2606 上涨 0.05%，5 年期 TF2606 上 涨 0.04%，2 年期 TS2606 上涨 0.03%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周五央行开展了 2690 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日无逆回购到期， 合计当日净投放 2690 亿元。2 月 28 日央行开 ...

值得关注的是，为提升专项债发行效率，2025年已有10个省份试点专项债"自审自发"。从试点效果看， 自审自发地区的发行进度快于全国平均水平，且项目审批更为严格。回顾2025年全年，全国地方政府债 券发行规模首次突破10万亿元，积极财政政策持续加力的态势十分明显。 2026年开年不到两个月，地方政府债券发行规模已突破2万亿元大关。根据地方财政部门公开发债信 息，截至2月25日，全国地方政府债券发行规模超过2万亿元。2月26日当天，江苏、重庆等5个省份合计 发行约1392亿元地方政府债券，2月27日湖南、辽宁还将合计发行约892亿元。据此测算，今年前2个月 地方政府债券发行规模约为2.28万亿元，预计较去年同期增长约22%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 发债节奏加快的背后，是"十五五"规划开局之年各地重大项目建设的资金需求。去年底，财政部已提前 下达部分2026年新增地方政府债务限额——以广东为例，获得提前下达的新增债务限额达3412亿元，这 使得今年地方债发行工作早在1月便已启动。截至目前，全国已有32个省市（自治区、直辖市、计划单 列市）参与了地 ...

"十五五"规划开局之年，不少地方推出重大建设项目。 春节假期之后，地方政府密集发行政府债券，筹集资金推动重大项目建设，以稳投资、稳经济、防风险。 根据地方财政部门公开发债信息，截至2月25日，全国地方政府债券发行规模已经突破2万亿元。26日，江苏、重庆等5省份将合 计发行约1392亿元地方政府债券；27日湖南、辽宁将合计发行约892亿元地方政府债券。因此，今年前2个月地方政府债券发行 规模（约2.28万亿元），预计比去年同期增长约22%。 长期关注地方债的中央财经大学教授温来成告诉第一财经，今年是"十五五"规划开局之年，不少地方推出重大建设项目。今年 以来，地方政府债券发行速度较快，将为这些政府重大项目开工建设筹集资金，推动项目尽早开工建设形成实物工作量。 近些年，中国持续实施积极财政政策。在严堵地方政府违规举债融资的"后门"同时，地方政府发行政府债券规模持续攀升。 2025年，全国地方政府债券发行规模首次突破10万亿元。多位接受第一财经采访的专家认为，今年地方政府债券发行规模将依 然维持在这一高位。 "今年经济增长仍面临一些压力，国内有效需求依然不足，而外部环境仍有诸多不确定性，今年以来地方密集发行地方政府 ...

Group 1 - The total issuance of new local government bonds in China for the year 2025 is 53,817 billion RMB, consisting of 7,740 billion RMB in general bonds and 46,077 billion RMB in special bonds [1] - The total refinancing bonds issued nationwide amount to 49,284 billion RMB, leading to a combined total of 103,101 billion RMB in local government bonds issued [1] - The average issuance term for local government bonds is 15.4 years, with general bonds averaging 8.8 years and special bonds averaging 17.6 years [1] Group 2 - The average interest rate for local government bonds is 1.97%, with general bonds at 1.83% and special bonds at 2.02% [1] - By the end of December 2025, the total local government debt balance is 548,231 billion RMB, which includes 175,120 billion RMB in general debt and 373,111 billion RMB in special debt [1] - The remaining average maturity of local government bonds is 10.5 years, with general bonds at 6.1 years and special bonds at 12.5 years, and the average interest rate is 2.83% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in 2025 reached a historic high of approximately 10.3 trillion yuan, marking the first time it has surpassed 10 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Highlights - The issuance of new local government bonds in 2025 amounted to 5.37 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, while refinancing bonds totaled 4.93 trillion yuan, showing a decline of 2.9% [3]. - The increase in the issuance limit for new bonds to 5.2 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year and an additional 0.5 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter aimed to stabilize investments and support local governments in addressing hidden debt [3][5]. Group 2: Allocation of Funds - Approximately 26.5% of the new special bond funds were allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 17% to land reserves, and 16.9% to transportation infrastructure [4]. - The support for real estate-related projects has significantly increased, with over 20% of new special bond funds directed towards land reserves, old renovations, and the acquisition of existing residential properties [4]. Group 3: Debt Management and Risk Mitigation - In 2025, 3.68 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued for debt resolution, reflecting an 8.8% increase, which helped to replace hidden debts and alleviate financial pressures [5]. - The average issuance interest rate for local government bonds fell below 2% for the first time, indicating a decrease in borrowing costs [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to continue to expand in 2026, with recommendations for a deficit rate of over 4% and approximately 1 trillion yuan in new general bonds to ensure necessary expenditures [8]. - There is a focus on optimizing the allocation of special bonds towards new infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, while maintaining support for traditional infrastructure and public services [8].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in 2025 reached a historic high of approximately 10.3 trillion yuan, marking the first time it has exceeded 10 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Highlights - The issuance of new local government bonds amounted to 5.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, while refinancing bonds totaled 4.93 trillion yuan, showing a decline of 2.9% [6]. - The new special bonds issued were approximately 4.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.5%, and were used for various projects including land acquisition and affordable housing [6][13]. - The average issuance interest rate for local government bonds fell below 2% for the first time in 2025, indicating a decrease in borrowing costs [15]. Group 2: Investment and Economic Stability - The funds from local government bonds were primarily allocated to major projects, with nearly half of the new special bonds directed towards municipal infrastructure, industrial parks, and transportation [6][13]. - The support for real estate projects increased significantly, with over 20% of new special bond funds allocated to land reserves and urban renewal projects, contributing to stabilizing the real estate market [13][20]. - The issuance of bonds aimed at debt resolution reached 3.68 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, helping to alleviate local government debt pressure and improve financial flexibility [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - For 2026, it is anticipated that local government bond issuance will continue to exceed 10 trillion yuan, with an emphasis on accelerating the issuance process to support early project commencement [3][19]. - Recommendations for 2026 include maintaining a deficit rate above 4% and allocating approximately 1 trillion yuan for new general bonds and around 5 trillion yuan for new special bonds to meet infrastructure needs [19]. - There is a call for optimizing the allocation of special bonds towards new infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, while also addressing traditional infrastructure gaps [20].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in China reached a record high in 2025, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 to support economic stability and infrastructure projects [2][3][20]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - In 2025, approximately 10.3 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued, marking a 5.2% year-on-year increase and the first time the annual issuance exceeded 10 trillion yuan [3]. - The issuance included 5.37 trillion yuan of new bonds, a 13.9% increase, and 4.93 trillion yuan of refinancing bonds, which saw a 2.9% decrease [4]. - The average issuance interest rate for local government bonds fell below 2% for the first time, with extended maturities [16]. Group 2: Utilization of Bond Proceeds - The funds from new bonds were primarily allocated to major projects, with 26.5% directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 17% for land reserves, and 16.9% for transportation infrastructure [5]. - A significant portion of the new special bonds was used to support real estate projects, including land reserves and urban renewal, accounting for over 20% of the total [14]. - The issuance of special bonds for debt resolution reached 3.68 trillion yuan, an 8.8% increase, aiding in the replacement of hidden debts and improving local financial conditions [15]. Group 3: Debt Management and Innovations - The management of local government debt has been optimized, with pilot programs allowing for self-approval of special bond projects in select provinces, enhancing efficiency [19]. - The pilot provinces achieved a completion rate of 93% for new special bonds, significantly higher than non-pilot provinces [19]. - Recommendations for 2026 include maintaining a deficit rate above 4% and allocating approximately 5 trillion yuan for new special bonds to support infrastructure and strategic industries [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance of various provinces and cities in China for the year 2025, highlighting both revenue growth and declines, as well as the overall stability of local government finances. Group 1: Revenue Performance - In 2025, Henan Province reported a general public budget revenue of 450.17 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5% [3] - Hunan Province's general public budget revenue reached 350.71 billion yuan, also growing by 2.5% [3] - Gansu Province's revenue was 111.24 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [3] - Nanchang City in Jiangxi Province had a revenue of 53.78 billion yuan, up by 2.2% [4] - Ningde City in Fujian Province reported approximately 27.2 billion yuan, with a growth of 7% [4] - Some cities, like Jiujiang in Jiangxi, experienced revenue declines, with a reported 32.2 billion yuan, down by 1.2% [6] Group 2: Overall Fiscal Health - The overall local fiscal revenue for the first 11 months of 2025 was 1.12 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, aligning closely with the expected growth target of 3% [7] - Local government bond issuance reached approximately 10.29 trillion yuan in 2025, marking the first time it surpassed 10 trillion yuan [9] Group 3: Expenditure Trends - In 2025, Henan's general public budget expenditure was 1.15161 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.5%, with 849.94 billion yuan allocated to social welfare, accounting for 73.8% of total expenditures [8] - Gansu's total expenditure was 490.07 billion yuan, up by 2.4%, with significant increases in health, social security, and education spending [8] - The issuance of government bonds has been crucial in supporting infrastructure and improving living conditions, as noted by Gansu's accelerated bond issuance [9]

Core Insights - The overall local public budget revenue in China is expected to see slight growth in 2025, with various provinces reporting different growth rates in their fiscal revenues [1][4]. Group 1: Revenue Growth - Henan Province's public budget revenue is projected to be 450.17 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.5% [1] - Hunan Province's public budget revenue is expected to reach 350.71 billion yuan, also growing by 2.5% [1] - Gansu Province anticipates a public budget revenue of 111.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [1] - Nanchang City in Jiangxi Province reported a public budget revenue of 53.78 billion yuan, up by 2.2% [2] - Ningde City in Fujian Province expects a revenue of approximately 27.2 billion yuan, showing a growth of 7% [2] - Liaocheng City in Shandong Province reported a revenue of about 26.5 billion yuan, increasing by 3% [2] - Changde City in Hunan Province's revenue is around 19.3 billion yuan, with a slight growth of 0.31% [2] - Baoji City in Shaanxi Province reported a revenue of about 11.2 billion yuan, up by 3.09% [2] Group 2: Revenue Decline - Jiujiang City in Jiangxi Province reported a public budget revenue of approximately 32.2 billion yuan, down by 1.2% [3] - Yongzhou City in Hunan Province's revenue is 14.62 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 9.3% [3] Group 3: Overall Fiscal Performance - The overall local public budget revenue for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 1.12 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, closely aligning with the expected annual growth target of 3% [4] Group 4: Expenditure Trends - In 2025, Henan Province's public budget expenditure is projected to be 1.15161 trillion yuan, growing by 0.5%, with 73.8% allocated to social welfare [5] - Gansu Province anticipates a public budget expenditure of 490.07 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.4%, with significant increases in health, social security, and education spending [5] Group 5: Government Bonds - Gansu Province plans to issue 82.91 billion yuan in new government bonds in 2025 to support infrastructure and improve living conditions [6] - The total issuance of local government bonds in 2025 is expected to exceed 10.29 trillion yuan, marking the first time it surpasses 10 trillion yuan [6]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance of China reported that from January to November 2025, a total of 52,085 billion yuan of new local government bonds were issued, including 7,357 billion yuan of general bonds and 44,728 billion yuan of special bonds [1] - The total issuance of refinancing bonds nationwide reached 48,179 billion yuan, resulting in a cumulative total of 100,264 billion yuan of local government bonds issued [1] - The average issuance term for local government bonds was 15.5 years, with general bonds averaging 8.9 years and special bonds averaging 17.7 years; the average issuance interest rate was 1.97%, with general bonds at 1.82% and special bonds at 2.02% [1] Group 2 - As of the end of November 2025, the total local government debt balance was 546,597 billion yuan, comprising 174,509 billion yuan of general debt and 372,088 billion yuan of special debt [2] - The remaining average term for local government bonds was 10.5 years, with general bonds at 6.2 years and special bonds at 12.5 years; the average interest rate was 2.84%, with general bonds at 2.89% and special bonds at 2.81% [2]