推荐指数：★★★★★ 在全球能源与大宗商品市场波动加剧的背景下，期货交易作为风险管理的重要工具，正被越来越多的企业与投 资者纳入战略布局。从棉花期货的农产品价格锁定，到煤炭期货的能源供应链优化，再到美原油期货与国际原 油期货的跨境套利，期货市场的细分领域正呈现出专业化、全球化的发展趋势。据统计，2025年全球期货市场 日均成交量突破5000万手，其中能源类期货占比达38%，农产品期货占比22%，金属类期货占比15%，金融期货 占比25%。在这一背景下，如何选择一家具备全品类服务能力、风险控制体系完善且行业口碑卓越的期货公 司，成为市场参与者关注的焦点。 期货市场的核心应用场景与技术需求 期货交易的核心价值在于通过标准化合约实现价格发现与风险对冲。以棉花期货为例，我国是全球*大的棉花生 产国与消费国，2025年棉花期货年成交量达1.2亿手，涉及产业链上下游企业超5000家。通过棉花期货，纺织企 业可提前锁定原材料成本，避免价格波动带来的利润侵蚀；贸易商则可通过套利交易获取价差收益。类似地， 煤炭期货作为能源市场的"风向标"，2025年日均成交量突破800万手，其价格波动直接影响电力、钢铁等行业的 生产成本。而美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market downturn reflects a significant revaluation of previously high-performing sectors, particularly cyclical stocks and the new energy sector, indicating a shift in economic expectations and profitability outlooks [1][2][25]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3939.81, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.92% to 13080.49, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.16% to 3069.22 [1]. - Over 4100 stocks declined, with nearly 800 experiencing drops exceeding 3%, indicating widespread market weakness [1]. Group 2: Cyclical Stocks Decline - Cyclical sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal all saw declines of over 3%, with some stocks hitting the daily limit down [1][2]. - The decline in cyclical stocks is linked to a negative feedback loop with commodity prices, as industrial metals and energy prices have also retreated [1][2][14]. Group 3: New Energy and Lithium Battery Sector - The new energy and lithium battery sectors faced significant sell-offs, with stocks like Huasheng Lithium and Haike New Source dropping over 10% [1][2]. - The decline is attributed to high valuations and a shift in market sentiment, as expectations for future growth in electric vehicle penetration and energy storage have been revised downward [6][10]. Group 4: External Market Influences - The downturn in the A-share market is not isolated, as it follows a notable correction in U.S. tech stocks, which has affected global risk appetite [12][13]. - The depreciation of the Chinese yuan and the retreat of foreign capital have further exacerbated the situation, leading to increased selling pressure on high-valuation growth stocks [13][14]. Group 5: Resilient Sectors - Despite the overall market decline, sectors such as AI applications, e-commerce, and certain tech stocks have shown resilience due to low valuations and supportive policies [25][26]. - These sectors are characterized by their potential for growth and innovation, although they face limitations in market capacity and the need for performance validation [25][26]. Group 6: Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its downward trend, with cyclical stocks likely to face further pressure due to ongoing commodity price adjustments and shifting institutional strategies [16][20]. - The new energy and lithium battery sectors are anticipated to undergo a "bubble-popping" process, as high valuations are reassessed in light of competitive pressures and reduced growth expectations [20][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that coal prices will generally decline in the short term, as the supply is abundant with increased production from major coal - producing areas, while demand remains weak with seasonal decline in power plant consumption and stable inventory levels [5]. 3. Key Points by Section Market Review - On September 2nd, the port market continued to operate weakly, with prices of coal of various calorific values generally falling. For example, the market price of 5500 - kcal coal at ports was 685 - 695 yuan/ton, and different regions had different price ranges for coal of various calorific values [3]. Important News - From January to July, the total social electricity consumption in the operating area of China Southern Power Grid reached 1003.9 billion kWh, exceeding one trillion kWh one month earlier than last year, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the national average [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: After the rainfall in the northwest region subsided, the coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased. As of September 1st, the operating rate of coal mines in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin it was 46%. The daily coal output of Ordos and Yulin exceeded 4 million tons, but the overall domestic supply tightened [5]. - **Import**: Affected by the improvement of domestic coal prices, the sentiment in the import market continued to warm up this week. Due to the price advantage of imported coal, the inquiry enthusiasm of coastal power plants increased significantly, and the market transaction atmosphere improved [5]. - **Demand**: Power plants operated stably, with the unit load rate fluctuating around 70%. Power plant coal inventories were at a medium - to - high level. Power plants prioritized fulfilling long - term contracts, and only purchased market coal to fill rigid gaps. Non - power sectors such as cement had low operating rates, while the restart of methanol and urea plants kept their operating rates high, and the demand for chemical coal was fair [5]. - **Inventory**: The rainfall in the northwest affected coal transportation. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was less than 1 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by Huhehaote Railway Bureau was around 15. With high outbound volume, port inventories continued to decline. As of September 2nd, the inventory at Bohai Rim ports dropped to 20.4 million tons, reaching a low level in the same period over the years [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - sentiment has significantly improved. Meanwhile, the cost support of polypropylene has weakened as the crude oil futures price lacks upward momentum. Given that domestic petrochemical plants have resumed production after maintenance, the supply pressure of polypropylene has increased, and the downstream demand has failed to meet expectations with a sluggish consumer market. In the context of the strong macro - expectation competing with the weak industrial reality, it is expected that the polypropylene futures will maintain a volatile and stable trend in the future [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Factor - The Fed chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting sent a dovish signal, which was widely interpreted as a clear sign of an interest rate cut after the September FOMC meeting. After his speech, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 8.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.1%. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has improved the macro - sentiment and boosted the prices of domestic energy and chemical futures to stabilize and strengthen [3]. Cost Factor - Polypropylene's upstream raw materials mainly include coal and crude oil. Although the domestic coal futures price rebounded last Friday night, strengthening the cost support for coal - chemical products, the crude oil futures price lacks the impetus to drive polypropylene prices higher. The geopolitical premium of crude oil has been shrinking due to political efforts to cool down the geopolitical risks in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Also, the oil market's focus has shifted to the situation of supply - demand surplus, weakening the cost support for polypropylene futures [4]. Supply Factor - Last week, as the maintenance devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangdong Petrochemical resumed operation, the loss of polypropylene production continued to decline, leading to a slight increase in overall production. As of the week ending August 24, 2025, the average domestic polypropylene capacity utilization rate was 78.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%. The domestic polypropylene production last week was 78.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons (0.41%) and a year - on - year increase of 11.84 tons (17.73%). With the planned restart of Jingbo Polyolefin's double - line this week, the domestic polypropylene production is expected to continue to rise [5]. Demand Factor - In late August, the downstream demand for domestic polypropylene failed to meet expectations, and the consumer market remained sluggish. Non - standard product sales pressure forced enterprises to cut prices to reduce inventory, leading to a weak decline in polypropylene prices. The average operating rates of most domestic polypropylene downstream industries showed an upward trend, except for BOPP and PP pipes, which declined, and modified PP, which remained stable. The BOPP industry's overall orders trended upward, but some enterprises stopped production due to insufficient orders, resulting in a decline in the industry's operating rate. For PP pipes, without policy support, the market trading atmosphere was poor, and the demand was limited, causing the industry's operating rate to decline [6].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The price of polypropylene futures 2601 contract rebounded after reaching a low of 6970 yuan/ton, driven by optimistic macroeconomic expectations [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference have increased market expectations for a rate cut in September, with a 91.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The financial market is also betting on two rate cuts by the end of the year, indicating a significant shift in monetary policy outlook [1] Group 2: Cost Factors - Geopolitical premiums have decreased, and cost factors for polypropylene are weakening, particularly due to stabilizing domestic coal prices while crude oil prices lack upward momentum [2] - Recent diplomatic efforts between the US and Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict have contributed to a reduction in geopolitical risks, further impacting oil prices [2] - The oil market is shifting focus to an oversupply situation, which is putting additional pressure on crude oil prices and weakening cost support for polypropylene [2] Group 3: Production and Supply - Polypropylene production has seen a slight increase due to the resumption of operations at facilities like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangdong Petrochemical, with an average capacity utilization rate of 78.22% [3] - Domestic polypropylene production reached 78630 tons last week, a week-on-week increase of 320 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 118400 tons, reflecting a growth rate of 17.73% [3] - Despite delays in new production facilities, the overall trend indicates a potential for continued recovery in polypropylene production [3] Group 4: Demand and Market Conditions - Demand for polypropylene remains weak, with downstream consumption not meeting expectations, leading to price declines as companies reduce inventory [4] - The average operating rate in downstream industries is generally increasing, but some companies are halting operations due to insufficient orders, particularly in the BOPP sector [4] - The overall market sentiment is improving due to macroeconomic factors, but the reality of weak demand and rising supply pressures suggests that polypropylene futures may stabilize in a fluctuating manner [4]

Investment Rating - The report focuses on identifying investment opportunities in industries that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, particularly in coal, steel, and building materials sectors, which are characterized by high levels of internal competition and effective policy execution [7][19]. Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the existence of a clear investment theme in the market, the establishment of a systematic and quantifiable analysis framework for industry selection, and the roadmap and timeline for investments [7]. - The macroeconomic context highlights that industrial profits are under pressure, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months as of June 2025, leading to intensified competition within industries [7][14]. - The "anti-involution" policy has emerged as a national agenda aimed at optimizing industry structures and restoring profitability, driven by strong policy guidance [7][19]. - A dual-dimensional analysis model was constructed to evaluate the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on various industries, focusing on execution efficiency and the degree of internal competition [7]. - The investment conclusion emphasizes a focus on supply-side clearing, with coal, steel, and building materials industries expected to achieve rapid supply-side clearing and a V-shaped recovery in profitability due to their characteristics of high internal competition and high execution efficiency [7][19]. Summary by Sections Current Macroeconomic Background - Industrial enterprises are facing profit pressures, with the PPI continuing to contract, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [9][14]. - The report notes a significant correlation between PPI and industrial profits, suggesting that a recovery in prices is essential for profit recovery [14]. Model and Methodology - A quantitative model was developed to screen industries that would benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on execution efficiency and internal competition levels [7]. Conclusions and Strategies - The report suggests that industries such as coal, steel, and building materials are likely to be the first to experience supply-side clearing and profitability recovery, making them core areas of focus for investment [7][19].

Market Performance - The domestic market shows a strong upward trend with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rising by 0.62% and 0.82% respectively, while the CSI Dividend Index increased by 1.65% driven by sectors such as hydropower, coal, and infrastructure [2][4] - The commodity market remains a focal point, with significant price increases in various products including glass and polysilicon, attributed to the anticipation of policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries [2][3] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is experiencing heightened bullish sentiment, with several products reaching their daily price limits, including glass, polysilicon, and coke, reflecting a strong market response to recent policy announcements [2][3] - The shift in price dynamics indicates a transition from immediate supply-demand factors to strong expectations driving prices, as evidenced by the reversal of basis in several commodities [3][6] Debt Market Analysis - The central bank is gradually tightening liquidity, with overnight rates dipping to 1.36%, while the issuance of medium-term lending facilities (MLF) remains substantial at 3.425 billion [4][5] - The long-term interest rate adjustments appear to be nearing their peak, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising to 1.69% and 1.91% respectively, raising concerns about inflation driven by rising commodity prices [6][7] Sector Performance - The coal sector has shown remarkable performance, with the SW Coal Index rising by 6.18%, driven by heightened expectations of production cuts and increased demand from infrastructure projects [8][9] - Consumer and technology sectors are also witnessing a resurgence, with indices such as the Wind White Wine Index and SW Beauty Care increasing by 2.83% and 1.57% respectively, indicating a potential for continued upward movement in these areas [8][9] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the current market conditions may present an opportunity for strategic investments in the debt market, particularly in short-duration bonds, as the liquidity environment remains favorable [4][7] - As the end of the month approaches, significant meetings may influence market trends, with expectations that policy developments could benefit sectors related to infrastructure and consumer goods [9]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - From 2021 - 2023, with the intensification of energy consumption dual - control policies, coal and non - ferrous supplies tightened, PPI rebounded, and industrial prosperity improved [2] - In 2016, the goal of steel and coal capacity reduction was set, combining administrative and market means [2] - In 2017 - 2018, capacity clearance was completed, and the utilization rate of steel and coal production capacity returned to a reasonable level, with industry profitability restored [2] - In 2024, the government set a unit GDP energy consumption reduction target and introduced an energy - saving and carbon - reduction action plan [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs - **Supply - side Reform Timeline** - In November 2015, the term "supply - side structural reform" was first proposed [2] - In December 2015, the "Three Reductions, One Deleveraging, and One Strengthening" tasks were refined [2] - In July 2020, the pandemic led to a direct impact on the recovery of commodities [2] - In September 2020, the "dual - carbon" goal was put forward, shifting the reform focus [2] - In February 2022, the Russia - Ukraine conflict intensified the energy crisis [2] - In March 2022, the US announced the release of 180 million barrels of crude oil reserves [2] - In March 2024, the government set a unit GDP energy consumption reduction target of 2.5% [2] - In May 2024, an energy - saving and carbon - reduction action plan was introduced to set energy - efficiency thresholds for different industries [2] - **Industry Development Impact** - The implementation of relevant policies led to changes in coal, steel, and other industries, including capacity reduction, production capacity utilization rate adjustment, and profitability recovery [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].

Group 1 - Recent domestic coal futures have experienced a sharp rebound, leading to a stabilization and increase in methanol prices, which are currently operating in the range of 2250 to 2300 yuan/ton [1] - The methanol futures contract 2509 remains in a bearish arrangement, with significant domestic supply pressure and increasing overseas imports, while downstream demand is entering a low season, resulting in accumulated social inventory [1] Group 2 - Domestic coal prices have significantly declined due to increased supply pressures, with the daily output of coking coal reaching 1.9795 million tons in May, a month-on-month increase of 11,300 tons [2] - The production profit for coal-based methanol has risen to over 20% in the northwest region of China, with profits in Shandong and Inner Mongolia increasing to the range of 15% to 20% [2] Group 3 - The reduction in maintenance of methanol production facilities has led to high production levels, with an estimated maintenance capacity of 7.51 million tons/year in May, a significant decrease of 56.59% year-on-year [3] - The average operating rate of domestic methanol plants was maintained at 82.95%, with a weekly production average of 1.9667 million tons, an increase of 27.60 thousand tons compared to the same period last year [3] Group 4 - The traditional low season for methanol consumption occurs from June to August, with June being the annual demand trough, leading to weak demand characteristics [4] - As external imports of methanol increase, the weak demand may lead to an accumulation of inventory, with port methanol inventory in East and South China rising to 394,400 tons, and inland methanol inventory reaching 355,000 tons [4]