城投行业 2026 年信用风险展望：城投企业加速出清， 债务化解与产业转型双轨并行 公用二部|付国晶、史瑞瑞、周春云|010-67413300 摘要 公司债券发行上市审核重点关注事项，对地方政府融资平台在经营过程中暴露的 资产流动性弱、利润对政府补助依赖程度高、互保、通过贸易业务做大营业收入 规模等问题做出约束，倒逼地方政府融资平台整改以适应融资要求。2025 年 5 月，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人共 同对"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"进行介绍，金融政策组合拳的出台落 实了降准及降息方案，释放了稳增长、稳房地产、稳市场等积极信号，此举有利 于进一步稳定房地产及各地土地市场，为各地政府及城投企业盘活存量土地、消 化存量房地产项目及商品房提供前提条件。 | 表 1 2025 | 年以来化债及城投行业相关重要事件 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 发布 | 重要会议/文件名称 | 重要内容 | | 时间 | | | | 2025.01 | 2024 年中国人民银行工作会议 | 2025 年继续做好金融支持地方政府融资平台债务风险化解工作。 | | | 《关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the "package debt - resolution plan", Zhejiang provincial urban investment enterprises are seeking market - oriented transformation to break through the policy restrictions on new financing and enhance their self - hematopoietic ability. The report analyzes the new bond issuance and transformation of district - county - level urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang, finding that they have achieved some results in asset and income transformation, but the transformation effect in profit indicators is not obvious. Future transformation can be carried out in the directions of urban renewal, rural revitalization, industrial investment, and enhancing market - oriented attributes [4][46]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Introduction - Urban investment enterprises have accumulated a large amount of debt, and with relevant policies, new financing has been tightened. In 2024, the notice on standardizing the exit of financing platform companies was issued, prompting urban investment enterprises to seek transformation. Zhejiang is at the forefront of urban investment enterprise transformation, and this report explores the transformation directions of district - county - level urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang [4]. 3.2 New Bond Issuance in Zhejiang Province 3.2.1 Sample Screening - From January 2024 to the end of October 2025, 71 sample bonds were obtained, with a total issuance scale of 44.104 billion yuan, involving 42 sample enterprises [5]. 3.2.2 Regional and Administrative - Level Distribution - New bond - issuing enterprises are mainly distributed in 10 prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang, with Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Jiaxing having the most issuing subjects. District - county - level subjects are the most numerous, with those in Hangzhou being the most prominent. There are 14 municipal - level subjects, mainly in Shaoxing and Wenzhou, and the least are park - level subjects, all in Ningbo [6]. 3.2.3 Distribution of Existing and New Entities - Most new bond - issuing enterprises are existing entities, and the number of first - time issuers in each city does not exceed 2. Among the sample enterprises, 31 are existing entities and 11 are first - time issuers, with the latter mainly in Hangzhou, Huzhou, etc. District - county - level first - time issuers are more numerous, while park - level first - time issuers are fewer [7]. 3.3 Transformation Directions of District - County - Level Urban Investment Enterprises in Zhejiang Province 3.3.1 Characteristics of New Bond - Issuing District - County - Level Entities - There are 25 district - county - level sample enterprises, divided into three categories: those with strong urban investment attributes and initial exploration of market - oriented business (8 enterprises, 32%); those with strong industrial attributes and high marketization (9 enterprises, 36%); and those with high business diversification around urban operations (8 enterprises, 32%) [12]. 3.3.2 Performance of Transformation Indicators - **Indicator Selection**: Lower proportion of urban - construction assets, higher proportion of equity - fund investment and self - operated project investment indicate greater efforts in expanding market - oriented business; lower proportion of urban - investment income indicates a higher degree of marketization; lower proportion of government subsidies in net profit indicates less dependence on government subsidies, and higher proportion of investment income in net profit indicates greater contribution of equity - fund investment to profit [17]. - **Overall Performance of Transformation Indicators**: In terms of assets, the proportion of external investment and self - operated projects has increased, but the proportion of urban - construction assets has not decreased; in terms of income, the business segments have become more diverse, and the proportion of urban - construction income has decreased; in terms of profit, government subsidies still contribute significantly, and the contribution of investment income has increased, but the transformation effect in profit indicators is not obvious [19]. 3.3.3 Case Analysis - **Hangzhou Gongshu District State - owned Capital Holding Group Co., Ltd.**: Externally, it has good industrial resources and government support. Internally, the acquisition of Rundach Medical has changed its income structure, and equity and fund investment have enhanced its industrial attributes. In terms of transformation effects, the proportion of equity and fund investment and self - operated project investment has increased, the proportion of urban - construction income has decreased, the contribution of investment income to profit has increased significantly, and it has made achievements in industrial introduction [23][32]. - **Yiwu State - owned Capital Operation Co., Ltd.**: Externally, the government's equity integration has laid the foundation for its market - oriented attributes. Internally, through business operations and project implementation, its industrial attributes have been continuously enhanced. In terms of transformation effects, its asset scale has expanded, the proportion of urban - construction income has decreased, the contribution of investment income to profit has increased, and it has promoted the development of the small - commodity trade industry [33][39]. - **Longyou County State - owned Assets Management Co., Ltd.**: Externally, government support has promoted its transformation. Internally, through asset transfer, business expansion, and industrial chain extension, it has improved its market - oriented business. In terms of transformation effects, its asset scale has increased, the proportion of urban - construction assets has decreased, the proportion of market - oriented business income has increased, and the contribution of investment income to profit has increased significantly [40][45]. 3.4 Summary - New bond - issuing enterprises in Zhejiang are mainly existing district - county - level entities. The transformation of district - county - level urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang has achieved some results in assets and income, but the transformation in profit indicators is not obvious. Future transformation directions include becoming project implementation and operation subjects, participating in rural revitalization, participating in regional investment promotion and industrial development, and enhancing market - oriented attributes [46].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The new regulations for government investment funds aim to promote compliance transformation and credit differentiation among urban investment enterprises [4][5] - The implementation of the new regulations is seen as a continuation and deepening of previous policies, addressing issues in the development of government investment funds and providing opportunities and challenges for urban investment enterprises [5][6] Summary by Sections New Regulations' Core Content and Intent - The "Work Method" focuses on "layout planning and investment control," transforming previous principles into executable systems [6] - The "Evaluation Method" establishes a comprehensive evaluation system with 13 indicators across three dimensions: policy compliance, productivity layout optimization, and policy execution capability [6][7] - The new regulations create a full-chain management system for government investment fund direction, enhancing fund efficiency and promoting high-quality development [6][7] Impact on Urban Investment Enterprises - Urban investment enterprises will participate in government investment funds in a more standardized and market-oriented manner, making decisions based on their financial status and management capabilities [12] - The new regulations present both opportunities and challenges for urban investment enterprises, as they align with government investment fund evaluation indicators and require enhanced professional investment and compliance management capabilities [13] - The new regulations may lead to further credit differentiation among urban investment enterprises, favoring those in regions with strong industrial foundations and financial resources [14][15]

Group 1: Economic Development and Strategic Positioning - The economic gap between Northern Jiangsu and Southern Jiangsu is significant, with Northern Jiangsu's GDP at 3.22 trillion yuan in 2024, growing at 7.03%, compared to Southern Jiangsu's GDP of 7.78 trillion yuan with a growth rate of 6.77%[4][6] - Northern Jiangsu is undergoing a dual task of "catching up" and "transformation," influenced by national strategies like the Yangtze River Delta integration and the Huai River ecological economic belt[3][6] - The development of national-level parks in Northern Jiangsu is crucial for industrial agglomeration and economic growth, with a focus on quality improvement and innovation-driven development during the 14th Five-Year Plan[9][10] Group 2: Transformation of Urban Investment Enterprises - Urban investment enterprises in Northern Jiangsu have shown some success in transformation, with a 2.69% increase in equity fund investments and a 6.29% increase in self-operated project investments by 2024 compared to 2016[39] - The average proportion of urban construction assets decreased by 8.75% from 2016 to 2024, indicating a shift towards more market-oriented operations[39] - Despite improvements in asset and income diversification, profit contributions from operational activities remain weak, with government subsidies still comprising a significant portion of net profits[37][40]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Urban investment enterprises have played a crucial role in stabilizing economic growth and promoting urbanization in China since their inception [2] - The development of urban investment enterprises is categorized into five stages: origin and initial development (before 2008), rapid expansion and initial regulation (2008-2013), standardized governance and transformation exploration (2014-2016), strict regulation and risk resolution (2017-2022), and comprehensive debt resolution and accelerated transformation (2023-present) [5][11][42] Summary by Sections 1. Definition of Urban Investment Enterprises - Urban investment enterprises are defined as economic entities established by local governments to undertake financing for government investment projects, possessing independent legal status [4] - They typically finance infrastructure projects through various means such as bonds, bank loans, and public-private partnerships (PPP) [4] 2. Origin and Initial Development (Before 2008) - Urban investment enterprises emerged in the 1990s due to a lack of funding for urban infrastructure and the mismatch between fiscal authority and responsibilities of local governments [8] - By the end of 2008, there were over 3,000 urban investment enterprises focusing on land development and municipal engineering [10] 3. Rapid Expansion and Initial Regulation (2008-2013) - The number of urban investment enterprises exceeded 10,000 during the implementation of the four trillion yuan economic stimulus plan, with significant growth in bond issuance [11][12] - Regulatory measures were introduced to address issues such as debt maturity mismatches and high financing costs [11][13] 4. Standardized Governance and Transformation Exploration (2014-2016) - The new Budget Law granted local governments the authority to incur debt, leading to an increase in bond issuance and a shift towards market-oriented operations [17][20] - By the end of 2016, the total debt of sample urban investment enterprises reached 12.8 trillion yuan, a 42.43% increase from 2014 [26] 5. Strict Regulation and Risk Resolution (2017-2022) - Regulatory policies continued to tighten, impacting the financing capabilities of urban investment enterprises, which experienced fluctuating debt levels [30][32] - The issuance of urban investment bonds and net financing showed a volatile growth trend during this period [32][34] 6. Comprehensive Debt Resolution and Accelerated Transformation (2023-Present) - In July 2023, a comprehensive debt resolution plan was proposed, leading to restrictions on new financing and a decline in bond issuance [42][46] - The pace of urban investment enterprises exiting the platform and transitioning to market-oriented operations has accelerated, with approximately 1,370 enterprises completing the exit process by August 2025 [50]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance scale of urban investment bonds continues to decline in the first half of 2025, with a slight narrowing of the decline compared to the first quarter, influenced by stricter regulations and policies aimed at mitigating local debt risks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Issuance Trends - In the first half of 2025, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased by approximately 13.5% year-on-year, with the decline in eastern regions remaining significant at 18.7%, while the central and western regions saw slight improvements [4]. - The number of newly issued enterprises in the second quarter of 2025 increased significantly, with a growth rate of 114% compared to the first quarter, indicating a more balanced regional distribution [9]. - The financing net outflow for urban investment bonds in the first half of 2025 reached 214.1 billion, a substantial decrease from the net inflow of 109 billion in the first quarter [7]. Group 2: Enterprise Characteristics - The majority of newly issued enterprises in the second quarter of 2025 were in the production and investment category, accounting for about 64.2% of the total, with a notable increase in diversity among industries such as public utilities and transportation [11]. - In the central region, 76.5% of newly issued enterprises were urban investment types, with a significant proportion being AA+ rated or above, and the majority of funds raised were for new projects [14]. - In the western region, 45.45% of newly issued enterprises were urban investment types, with a focus on new funding purposes, accounting for 92% of the total [16]. Group 3: Transformation and Policy Impact - The series of debt resolution policies initiated in 2023 has led to a tightening of financing policies for urban investment enterprises, resulting in a significant reduction in net financing scale for urban investment bonds in 2024 [3][4]. - Urban investment enterprises are gradually advancing their transformation processes, relying on regional resource endowments and existing business advantages to open up new financing channels in the bond market [3]. - Typical cases of urban investment transformation in the central and western regions include the integration of operational assets and the development of industrial parks, showcasing a shift towards more diversified business models [14][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions" was released, defining the "roadmap" and "timetable" for urban renewal, and multiple - dimensional financing support will be strengthened [6][7]. - Xinjiang plans to clear all financing platforms by the end of 2025, and Jilin aims to exit the list of key provinces with high - risk debts [6][12]. - This week, 10 urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest, with a total scale of 1524 million yuan [6][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. News Review 3.1.1. "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions" - Since 2019, the central and local governments have actively promoted urban renewal. By the end of 2024, China's urbanization rate reached 67%. From 2019 - 2024, 280,000 old communities were renovated, benefiting over 120 million people. Various infrastructure improvement projects have also achieved remarkable results [8]. - Future urban renewal focuses on eight tasks, aiming to make important progress by 2030 [9]. - Financing support includes central finance (continuing to increase investment and special treasury bond support), local finance (expanding special bond investment areas), financial institutions (formulating special loan management methods), and diversifying financing methods (such as PPP and REITs) [10][11]. 3.1.2. Xinjiang and Jilin's Debt - related Goals - Xinjiang plans to complete the clearance of all financing platforms by the end of 2025, and prohibits the establishment of new ones [12]. - Jilin aims to exit the list of high - risk debt provinces by innovating investment and financing models,盘活 "three capitals" of finance, and reducing the number of financing platforms [12]. 3.1.3. Pre - payment of Bonds by Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 10 urban investment enterprises prepaid 10 bonds, with a total scale of 1524 million yuan, a decrease of 14.409 billion yuan compared to the previous value. Most of these enterprises are from the east and west regions, and the majority of their credit ratings are AA [14]. 3.2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds 3.2.1. Local Government Bonds - This week, 51 local government bonds were issued, with a total scale of 197.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous value, and a net financing increase of 7.02% to 171.114 billion yuan. As of May 18, the replacement progress of local bonds this year reached 80%, and more than half of the provinces completed their annual tasks [6][16]. - The weighted average issuance interest rate decreased by 1.49BP to 1.88%, and the weighted average issuance spread narrowed by 2.04BP to 12.79BP [16]. - Anhui had the largest issuance scale of 56.452 billion yuan, and Guangxi had the highest issuance interest rate and spread [16]. 3.2.2. Urban Investment Bonds - This week, 35 urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 32.227 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 80.01% from the previous value, mainly due to seasonal factors. The net financing increased by 4.51 billion yuan to - 21.62 billion yuan [6][20]. - The overall issuance interest rate was 2.17%, a decrease of 28.78BP from the previous value, and the issuance spread was 67.58BP, a narrowing of 26.77BP [20]. - Private placement bonds were the main issuance type, accounting for 45.71%. The 3 - year term was the most common, accounting for 37.14%. The issuer's main credit rating was AAA, accounting for 40.00% [20][21]. - Three overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 862 million yuan, and the weighted average issuance interest rate was 5.90% [21]. 3.3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds - The central bank conducted 486 billion yuan of reverse repurchases this week, with a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates mostly increased [26]. - This week, the trading volume of local government bond spot was 452.947 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.66% from the previous value, and most of the maturity yields increased, with an average increase of 3.33BP [26]. - The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 290.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.50% from the previous value, and most of the maturity yields increased, with an average increase of 1.41BP. The credit spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + urban investment bonds narrowed by 7.96BP, 3.71BP, and 6.10BP respectively [26]. - In a broad sense, 25 bonds of 22 urban investment entities had 30 abnormal trades, with an increase in the number of entities, bonds, and abnormal trades [27]. 3.4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 63 urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, cumulative new borrowings, and external guarantees [32].