第 445 期 2025-08-25 焦点关注 央行大额投放，债市有所修复 近一段时间债券市场持续震荡引发关注，股债"跷跷板"效应明显。今天A股三大指数继续走强，A股成 交额历史第二次突破3万亿元。 但债市对权益市场表现有所脱敏，情绪出现修复迹象，30Y超长特别国债2500002收益率下行4bp至 1.9975％，时隔多日再度步入2.0%下方。国债期货收盘全线大幅上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.78%，10年 期主力合约涨0.27%，5年期主力合约涨0.15%，2年期主力合约涨0.10%。 公开市场方面，央行今日开展2884亿元7天逆回购操作，投标量2884亿元，操作利率为1.40%，因今日 2665亿元逆回购到期，单日净投放219亿元。此外，叠加今日将开展6000亿元1年期MLF操作，当日共 实现净投放6219亿元。 交易员表示，尽管短期内股市高热或继续造成存款搬家，并扰动资金面，但在政策护航下料流动性整体 仍无虞。 10只科创债ETF自8月27日起纳入可质押库 10只科创债ETF将于8月27日起纳入可质押库。首批科创债ETF上市首日（7月17日），10家管理人已向 中国结算提交了旗下科创债ETF纳入回购质押库 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying its efforts to manage local government debt risks by prohibiting new hidden debts and effectively promoting the clearance of local financing platforms, reflecting a stronger policy determination [2][5][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 emphasized the need to actively and steadily resolve local government debt risks and strictly prohibit new hidden debts [2][5]. - The government's approach has shifted from merely separating financing platforms from government credit to a more thorough requirement for the complete clearance of non-viable platforms, emphasizing "reducing quantity and improving quality" [2][5]. - The timeline for local financing platforms to exit is set to be completed by June 2027, with 2025 identified as a critical year for platform exits [5][6]. Group 2: Challenges in Implementation - Local governments face significant challenges in the clearance process, particularly in managing the large amounts of hidden debt accumulated over years [3][7]. - The transition from old financing platforms to new ones requires substantial cash flow to replace debts, which is contingent on support from higher authorities [3][7]. - The need for local governments to maintain financing capabilities while phasing out old platforms raises concerns about potential debt transfer to new or existing local state-owned enterprises [3][8]. Group 3: Historical Context - Local government financing platforms have evolved over the past decade, initially serving as vehicles for funding public projects but have increasingly become conduits for hidden debts [4][8]. - Previous government directives have aimed to regulate and clear these platforms, with significant milestones in 2010, 2014, and 2021 focusing on separating government financing functions from these entities [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current financing policies are perceived as stringent, making it difficult to balance debt resolution with economic development needs, which may hinder the sustainable financing of local investment projects [8][9]. - There is a risk that the ongoing regulatory measures could lead to new issues such as "business patching" and "asset transfer," potentially resulting in a scenario where platforms exit but still rely on government projects [8][9].

Core Insights - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute indicates that the net interest margin (NIM) of Chinese commercial banks is expected to be 1.43% in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.11 percentage points, marking a historical low [1] - However, the downward trend in NIM is expected to ease compared to the same period in 2024, with pressures on interest income anticipated to persist in the first three quarters of 2025 but with some alleviation [1] Group 1: Factors Affecting Net Interest Margin - The decline in NIM is attributed to several factors: the adjustment of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) leading to the repricing of existing loans, the orderly resolution of implicit debt, and weakened demand increasing pricing pressure on bank assets [2] - Positive factors contributing to alleviating the downward pressure on NIM include major banks reducing deposit rates, with significant cuts in both current and fixed deposit rates in May 2025 [2] Group 2: Loan Rates and Trends - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans in March 2025 was 3.26%, down 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was 3.13%, down 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The report suggests that the pricing of new loans is stabilizing, indicating a potential shift in the interest rate environment [1] Group 3: Profitability Outlook - It is projected that the net profit and operating income of commercial banks in the first three quarters of 2025 will remain largely unchanged compared to the same period in 2024 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - pressure situation of implicit debt supervision remains unchanged, emphasizing the prevention of "risks from risk disposal". The audit report reveals over a hundred billion yuan of irregular use of special bonds and the persistence of new implicit debt since March 2023, highlighting the need for continuous improvement of debt management mechanisms [5][7][9]. - Guangxi will spare no effort to support Liuzhou in debt resolution, aiming to balance debt reduction and high - quality development [5][10]. Summary by Directory 1. News Review - **Irregular Use of Special Bonds and New Implicit Debt**: The audit report shows that irregularities such as illegal borrowing, false reporting of expenditures, and idle misappropriation of special bonds still exist, involving over a thousand billion yuan. New implicit debt has also emerged since March 2023, along with irregularities like irregular fund collection by urban investment companies and false debt resolution. This indicates the need to improve the regular supervision system for special bonds and address deep - seated institutional issues in debt management [5][7][9]. - **Guangxi's Support for Liuzhou's Debt Resolution**: On June 25, Guangxi held a meeting to support Liuzhou in debt resolution, emphasizing the balance between debt reduction and high - quality development. Resolving Liuzhou's debt is a top priority for the region [10]. - **Early Redemption of Bonds by Urban Investment Enterprises**: Twenty urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance this week, involving 21 bonds with a total scale of 40.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.51 billion yuan from the previous value. Most of these enterprises are from the eastern region, and the majority of their credit ratings are AA [12]. 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local Government Bonds**: This week, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds increased, while the issuance interest rate decreased and the spread narrowed. As of now, the issuance progress of new special bonds this year is less than 40%, and the local debt replacement progress has reached 87%. A total of 60 local bonds were issued this week, with a scale of 261.753 billion yuan, and the net financing increased by 167.346 billion yuan to 124.334 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance interest rate dropped by 9.85BP to 1.72%, and the weighted average issuance spread narrowed by 3.37BP to 10.18BP [14]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The issuance scale of urban investment bonds increased this week, but the net financing turned negative. The issuance interest rate rose, and the spread widened. A total of 197 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 128.875 billion yuan, an increase of 1.79% from the previous value. The net financing decreased by 445.82 billion yuan to - 32.634 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rate was 2.25%, up 1.74BP from the previous value, and the issuance spread was 77.89BP, widening by 4.95BP [17]. 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates mostly rose [24]. - **Urban Investment Rating Adjustment**: On June 18, 2025, Dagong Global downgraded the credit rating of Guizhou Guiyang Economic and Technological Development Zone Guihe Investment Development Co., Ltd. from AA to AA - and its bond rating from AA to AA - [24]. - **Credit Events and Regulatory Penalties**: No urban investment credit risk events occurred this week [24]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The trading volume of local government bonds decreased by 12.75% to 544.437 billion yuan, and the maturity yields generally declined, with an average decline of 4.78BP [24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The trading volume of urban investment bonds increased by 15.88% to 378.924 billion yuan, and the maturity yields generally declined, with an average decline of 5.33BP. The spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year AA+ urban investment bonds widened, while that of 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds narrowed [25]. - **Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds**: Under the broad - based criteria, 24 urban investment entities had 28 abnormal bond trades, with an increase in the number of entities, bonds, and trading times [25]. 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - Forty - seven urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, suspected disciplinary violations, changes in the use of raised funds, and external guarantees [28].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan province is reallocating its newly issued special bonds to address government debts owed to enterprises and to mitigate hidden debts, significantly reducing the amount directed towards project construction in 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Special Bond Allocation Changes - In 2025, Yunnan received a total of 95.5 billion yuan in new special bond quotas, with only 23 billion yuan allocated for project construction, a reduction from 50 billion yuan at the beginning of the year [1][2]. - The allocation for addressing government debts owed to enterprises is set at 35.6 billion yuan, while the amount for supplementing government fund finances increased from 20 billion yuan to 36.9 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Provinces - Other provinces, such as Hunan, have also disclosed their special bond allocations, with nearly 60% directed towards project construction and about 40% for resolving debts owed to enterprises and hidden debts [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The shift in funding priorities indicates a serious issue with government debts owed to enterprises in Yunnan, and the reallocation aims to improve economic circulation by addressing these debts [3][4]. - The use of special bonds to inject liquidity into enterprises is expected to alleviate financial pressures and prevent debt issues from spreading through the industrial chain, thereby enhancing the regional business environment [4]. Group 4: Debt Management and Safety - As of April 2025, Yunnan's total government debt stood at 1.67985 trillion yuan, with a strict control within the debt limit of 1.97244 trillion yuan for the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan province is reallocating its newly issued special bonds to address government debts owed to enterprises and to mitigate hidden debts, reflecting a shift in fiscal strategy to prioritize debt resolution over project construction [1][3][4]. Group 1: Special Bond Allocation Changes - Yunnan's total new special bond quota for the year is 955 billion yuan, with a significant reduction in funds allocated for project construction from 500 billion yuan to 230 billion yuan, nearly halving the amount [1]. - The new allocation includes 356 billion yuan specifically for settling government debts to enterprises, while the funds for supplementing government financial resources increased from 200 billion yuan to 369 billion yuan [1][3]. - In 2024, the allocation for government financial resource supplementation is expected to be 234 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 28% of the total 831 billion yuan in new special bonds [2]. Group 2: Focus on Debt Resolution - The majority of the newly allocated special bond funds in Yunnan (approximately 725 billion yuan or 76%) will be directed towards resolving debts owed to enterprises and addressing hidden debts, contrasting with the previous year's focus on project construction [2][3]. - The approach aims to alleviate the "circular debt" issue, where government debts to state-owned enterprises lead to further debts owed by these enterprises to private companies, thereby enhancing economic circulation [3][4]. - The provincial government is implementing measures to ensure that the funds are used transparently and effectively, with a focus on preventing the misappropriation of funds and establishing a long-term debt repayment mechanism [4]. Group 3: Overall Debt Management - As of April 2025, Yunnan's total government debt stands at 16,798.5 billion yuan, with special debt accounting for 9,512.2 billion yuan, remaining within the provincial debt limit of 19,724.4 billion yuan [5]. - The province has received a significant allocation of 2,600 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds approved by the National People's Congress to address existing hidden debts [4]. - The strategy of using special bonds to inject liquidity into enterprises is seen as a short-term solution to alleviate financial pressures and prevent debt issues from spreading through the industrial chain [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions" was released, defining the "roadmap" and "timetable" for urban renewal, and multiple - dimensional financing support will be strengthened [6][7]. - Xinjiang plans to clear all financing platforms by the end of 2025, and Jilin aims to exit the list of key provinces with high - risk debts [6][12]. - This week, 10 urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest, with a total scale of 1524 million yuan [6][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. News Review 3.1.1. "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions" - Since 2019, the central and local governments have actively promoted urban renewal. By the end of 2024, China's urbanization rate reached 67%. From 2019 - 2024, 280,000 old communities were renovated, benefiting over 120 million people. Various infrastructure improvement projects have also achieved remarkable results [8]. - Future urban renewal focuses on eight tasks, aiming to make important progress by 2030 [9]. - Financing support includes central finance (continuing to increase investment and special treasury bond support), local finance (expanding special bond investment areas), financial institutions (formulating special loan management methods), and diversifying financing methods (such as PPP and REITs) [10][11]. 3.1.2. Xinjiang and Jilin's Debt - related Goals - Xinjiang plans to complete the clearance of all financing platforms by the end of 2025, and prohibits the establishment of new ones [12]. - Jilin aims to exit the list of high - risk debt provinces by innovating investment and financing models,盘活 "three capitals" of finance, and reducing the number of financing platforms [12]. 3.1.3. Pre - payment of Bonds by Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 10 urban investment enterprises prepaid 10 bonds, with a total scale of 1524 million yuan, a decrease of 14.409 billion yuan compared to the previous value. Most of these enterprises are from the east and west regions, and the majority of their credit ratings are AA [14]. 3.2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds 3.2.1. Local Government Bonds - This week, 51 local government bonds were issued, with a total scale of 197.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous value, and a net financing increase of 7.02% to 171.114 billion yuan. As of May 18, the replacement progress of local bonds this year reached 80%, and more than half of the provinces completed their annual tasks [6][16]. - The weighted average issuance interest rate decreased by 1.49BP to 1.88%, and the weighted average issuance spread narrowed by 2.04BP to 12.79BP [16]. - Anhui had the largest issuance scale of 56.452 billion yuan, and Guangxi had the highest issuance interest rate and spread [16]. 3.2.2. Urban Investment Bonds - This week, 35 urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 32.227 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 80.01% from the previous value, mainly due to seasonal factors. The net financing increased by 4.51 billion yuan to - 21.62 billion yuan [6][20]. - The overall issuance interest rate was 2.17%, a decrease of 28.78BP from the previous value, and the issuance spread was 67.58BP, a narrowing of 26.77BP [20]. - Private placement bonds were the main issuance type, accounting for 45.71%. The 3 - year term was the most common, accounting for 37.14%. The issuer's main credit rating was AAA, accounting for 40.00% [20][21]. - Three overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 862 million yuan, and the weighted average issuance interest rate was 5.90% [21]. 3.3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds - The central bank conducted 486 billion yuan of reverse repurchases this week, with a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates mostly increased [26]. - This week, the trading volume of local government bond spot was 452.947 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.66% from the previous value, and most of the maturity yields increased, with an average increase of 3.33BP [26]. - The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 290.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.50% from the previous value, and most of the maturity yields increased, with an average increase of 1.41BP. The credit spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + urban investment bonds narrowed by 7.96BP, 3.71BP, and 6.10BP respectively [26]. - In a broad sense, 25 bonds of 22 urban investment entities had 30 abnormal trades, with an increase in the number of entities, bonds, and abnormal trades [27]. 3.4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 63 urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, cumulative new borrowings, and external guarantees [32].