2025.12. 22 近些年在中央一揽子化债政策支持下，各地加快化解存量隐性债务。但也有少数地方"虚假化债"。 审计署6月审计报告发现，6个地区通过直接修改债务台账、将政府债务转为企业债务、以新债垫还 旧债等方式，虚假化解政府债务23.2亿元。 针对审计发现的问题，财政部将不实化债作为监管重点，对虚假化解隐性债务问题严肃处理。2省2 个地区采取重新纳入隐性债务监测系统、盘活资产筹集资金等措施，已实质性化解政府债务1.7亿 元。 本文字数：1638，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 针对审计署查出的地方债风险问题，财政部等正推动解决这一问题，并剖析背后原因，强化监管。 12月22日，审计署网站公开了《国务院关于2024年度中央预算执行和其他财政收支审计查出问题整 改情况的报告》（下称《报告》），其中在备受关注的地方政府债务风险整改方面，7省已偿还违规 新增的政府隐性债务33.42亿元。 尽管中央三令五申不允许地方政府新增隐性债务，但仍有一些地方违规举债形成隐性债务。审计署今 年6月发布审计报告指出，5个地区指定国企垫资建设、承诺由财政资金偿还等，新增政府隐性债务 59.09亿元。11个地区15户 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 信用利差多数走阔，优先布局中短端票息资产 ——信用周报 20251221 （1）1y 品种：当前收益率主要分布在 1.72%-1.80%区间，利差在 2024 年以来 中枢水平以下 13-19BP，本周利差小幅回升，但性价比仍相对较低。 （2）2-3y 品种：收益率主要分布在 1.83%-2.10%区间，利差在 19-42BP 区间， 考虑增值税新规对国开债曲线影响后（按 3%税率估算，影响约 5BP），2-3y 信 用品种利差在 2024 年以来中枢水平附近。考虑到后续基金和理财对短端品种 的配置需求较高，可优选底仓品种，优先布局明年中短端票息资产。 （3）4-5y 品种：收益率主要分布在 2.0%-2.35%区间，利差在 26-55BP 区间。 本周 4-5y 品种利差走阔，尤其低等级品种，主要受地产债及周期债调整影响， 票息配置性价比边际回升。在 3y 以内短端极致拥挤的情况下，基金和理财或 拉长久期至 4-5y 品种博取收益，但需求力量较今年或整体有所减弱、波动性 或增强。从季节性看，12 月信用利差压缩动能通常有限，一季度非银配置力 量逐渐增强、债市利空因素边际 ...

2026 年地方债投资策略 地方债六问六答 glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 19 日 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 徐亮 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 黄紫仪 | | 执业证书： S0590125110076 | | | 邮箱： | huangziyi@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 14.3 万亿元隐债化债压力如何？2026 年-2028 年之前地方政府实际需要消化的隐性债务 总额仅为 0.94 万亿元。2025 年化债地方债发行期限进一步拉长，超长期占比大幅上升至 68%，主要是增加了 30Y 和 20Y 地方债的供给。 专项债募集资金投向有何变化？2025 年 1-10 月投向基建类的市政建设及产业园区基础 设施、交通基础设施资金规模大幅下滑明显，两者占比较 2024 年大幅下降 12%。 2026 年政府债供给节奏如何？我们预计 2026 年 1-3 ...

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high level of spending [11][12] - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on guiding expectations and improving transmission efficiency [1][23] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in supporting economic growth and structural transformation, with a deficit rate maintained around 4% [2][61] - Special bonds and new special debt scales are anticipated to expand slightly compared to 2025, aiming to keep fiscal expenditure growth in line with or above nominal GDP growth [2][63] - The focus will be on investing in social welfare and new infrastructure, particularly in areas like elderly care and child welfare [2][61] Group 3: Tax and Fiscal System Reform - Fiscal reforms will address structural contradictions, focusing on macro tax burden, central-local relations, and social security systems [3][61] - The aim is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives to curb excessive competition among local governments [3][61] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement a rate cut of about 10 basis points to maintain liquidity [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Macro Governance - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible response to market changes, enhancing policy effectiveness [1][42] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is evolving, with a focus on improving the overall governance system [1][42]

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is focusing on increasing fiscal support for technological innovation and the construction of a modern industrial system over the next five years [1][2] Fiscal Reform - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the implementation of zero-based budgeting to break the rigid structure of current fiscal expenditures [1] - The government has initiated a three-year action plan for zero-based budgeting from 2025 to 2027, with pilot programs starting in 2025 [1] Technological Innovation - The region aims to enhance its technological innovation capabilities by reallocating funds to support key areas such as new energy, rare earth materials, and biopharmaceuticals [2] - Significant technology tasks will be implemented to produce more original achievements in these advantageous fields [2] Financial Statistics - In 2024, the total fiscal science and technology expenditure in Inner Mongolia is projected to be 8.63 billion, an increase of 1.13 billion or 15.1% from the previous year [3] - The proportion of this expenditure in the general public budget is 1.2% [3] Risk Management - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines the need for risk prevention in key areas, including the resolution of hidden debts and overdue payments to enterprises [3] - Inner Mongolia has exited the list of high-risk debt regions, but challenges remain regarding high debt rates in some areas [3] Fiscal System Improvement - The plan calls for reforming the fiscal system below the autonomous region level, rationally dividing fiscal responsibilities and expenditure duties [4] - It also emphasizes performance management reform and the establishment of a lifecycle management system for bond funds [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has released a report on the implementation of China's fiscal policy for the first half of 2025, emphasizing the need to continuously prevent and resolve risks in key areas [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The report outlines the continuation of a comprehensive debt reduction policy, focusing on the steady advancement of hidden debt replacement while addressing new hidden debt behaviors promptly and holding accountable those responsible [1] - It highlights the importance of strengthening fiscal operation analysis and dynamic monitoring, as well as enhancing cash flow management and emergency response [1] Group 2: Support for Local Governments - The report stresses the need to solidify the "three guarantees" bottom line to ensure stable operation of local finances [1] - It mentions the utilization of relevant policy tools to assist in the reform and transformation of financing platforms, risk management of small financial institutions, and the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing transformation of local government financing platforms in China, highlighting the shift away from reliance on government credit and the implications for the future of these platforms and their operations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Background and Current Developments - Since 2025, many local government financing platforms have announced their exit from government financing, with over 15 platforms making such announcements in October alone [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China and other departments issued a notice in August 2025, mandating the complete exit of local government financing platforms by June 2027, aiming to eliminate hidden local government debt [1][2][4]. - As of September 26, 2025, 114 local financing platforms have officially announced their exit, with Shandong leading with 28 exits [2][3]. Group 2: Reasons for the Transition - The transition is driven by two main factors: the need for compliance with new policies aimed at preventing local debt risks and the internal necessity for financing platforms to evolve into market-oriented entities [4][5]. - Historical data shows that previous rounds of platform exits have led to significant numbers of financing platforms leaving official lists, indicating a pattern of increasing regulatory pressure [5][6]. Group 3: Implications for Financing Platforms - The exit from government financing is seen as a critical step for local financing platforms to become independent market entities, allowing them to engage in public-private partnerships and diversify their business operations [4][8]. - Analysts suggest that the relationship between financing platforms and local governments should not be viewed as entirely severed; rather, a clear delineation of responsibilities is necessary for effective collaboration [7][8]. Group 4: Future Directions and Strategies - Financing platforms are encouraged to enhance their self-sustaining capabilities by shifting focus from large-scale infrastructure projects to sustainable cash-generating market-oriented businesses [11][12]. - Strategies for transformation include optimizing traditional operations, expanding into promising market sectors like renewable energy, and effectively managing existing assets to generate revenue [12][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the synergy between proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to stimulate consumption and support economic growth [1][6] - The government has allocated approximately 420 billion yuan to boost consumption, leading to over 2.9 trillion yuan in sales [2] - The issuance of special government bonds has increased significantly, with 7.88 trillion yuan issued in the first half of the year, a 35.28% increase year-on-year [4] Group 2 - The introduction of various policies, such as child-rearing subsidies and personal consumption loans, aims to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate effective demand [3] - The total social financing increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the previous year [5] - Structural monetary policy tools have been implemented to support key sectors, including technology innovation and consumption expansion [7]

1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity futures market has seen significant capital inflows due to positive domestic fundamentals and increased trading themes, with the total capital amount reaching a record high of 4736.5 billion yuan on September 16 [2]. - The precious metals market is in a bull - run, potentially accelerating due to factors such as expectations of a Fed policy shift, increased避险 demand, and supply - demand imbalances [4][5]. - The bond market is affected by multiple factors, with short - term fluctuations and a possible gradual recovery in an oscillatory manner. Long - term bond yields may decline more smoothly in the latter half of the fourth quarter [25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in the second quarter of 2025 had a year - on - year growth rate of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter but higher than the same period last year [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, slightly up from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, also slightly up [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively. The financial institution's RMB loan increased by 590 billion yuan in the month [1]. - In August 2025, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - In August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 0.5%, and that of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.64% [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import values were 4.4% and 1.3% respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption, proposing 19 measures in five aspects [2]. - On September 16, the total capital in the commodity futures market reached a record high of 4736.5 billion yuan, with 11 varieties having over 10 billion yuan in capital, and the capital in Shanghai gold futures reaching 106 billion yuan [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - On September 16, COMEX gold futures reached a new high, and Shanghai gold futures had a cumulative increase of 7.37% since September. Silver prices also continued to rise [4][5]. - On September 15, zinc, copper, and aluminum inventories decreased, while lead and nickel inventories increased. Tin, aluminum alloy, and cobalt inventories remained stable [5]. - As of September 16, the position of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.32% (3.15 tons) to 979.95 tons [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The US government is discussing setting up a $5 billion mining investment fund, and plans to expand the strategic uranium reserve [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On September 16, international oil prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts and a larger - than - expected decline in US crude oil inventories [7]. - Two wells in Sinopec's Ziyang shale gas field in the Sichuan Basin set a new record for shale gas production, with one well having a daily output of 1.407 million cubic meters [7]. - OPEC + representatives will discuss production capacity this week, and the EU is about to propose the 19th round of sanctions targeting cryptocurrencies, banks, and energy [7][8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - On September 18, 15,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be put up for auction [9]. - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China's grain output exceeded 1.4 trillion catties in 2024, and the high - standard farmland area exceeded 1 billion mu. The agricultural science and technology progress contribution rate reached 63.2% [9]. - Coffee futures prices rose due to concerns about drought in Brazil, and the price of Arabica coffee beans reached $4.21 per pound [9]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 16, the central bank conducted 287 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 40 billion yuan [11]. 3.3.2 Important News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption [12]. - The central bank governor proposed to adjust the share ratio of the International Monetary Fund [12]. - The so - called "cancellation of the overseas individual housing purchase limit" is a misinterpretation [13]. - The CSRC is soliciting opinions on the regulations for the management of public offering fund sales fees, which may affect short - term bond funds [13]. - Some local governments are accelerating the resolution of implicit debts, and 82 districts and counties have completed the zero - clearing of implicit debts [14]. - The Beijing Financial Court has explored a dispute - resolution model to help enterprises in debt crises [14]. - The Fed is expected to restart the interest - rate cut process, but there are internal differences [15]. - The World Bank issued $1.75 billion of sustainable development bonds [16]. - Alibaba issued $3.2 billion of zero - coupon convertible preferred notes [16]. - Tencent issued bonds worth about 9 billion yuan [16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market first declined and then rose. The yield of the 30 - year treasury bond "25 Super Long Special Treasury Bond 02" decreased by 1.5bp [18]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.18%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index increased by 0.18% [19]. - Most money market interest rates and bond - related rates increased [19][20]. - European bond yields rose, and US bond yields fell [21][22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose by 65 points, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 29 points [23]. - The US dollar index fell by 0.73%, and most non - US currencies rose [23]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that the timing for restarting treasury bond trading may be approaching [24]. - CITIC Securities believes that the scale of bank wealth management has continued to grow, and the new regulations on fund redemption fees may change the investment logic of wealth management funds [24]. - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market may recover gradually in an oscillatory manner [25]. - Guoxin Fixed Income suggests paying attention to structural opportunities in the equity market and individual convertible bonds [26]. - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the bond market may take a short - term break [26]. - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the economic data in August is generally stable but still under pressure [26]. 3.4 Stock Market - A - share indices fluctuated and closed higher, with robot concept stocks leading the rise and rare earth, breeding, and insurance stocks falling [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell slightly, with robot concept stocks performing strongly and pharmaceutical stocks generally falling [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the achievements and future plans of China's fiscal policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting significant increases in budget revenues and expenditures, as well as various measures to enhance economic growth and manage debt risks [1][2][5]. Fiscal Performance - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," the national general public budget revenue is expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan," representing a growth of approximately 19% [1]. - The national general public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, an increase of 26 trillion yuan, or 24% compared to the previous plan [1]. - Key allocations include 20.5 trillion yuan for education, 19.6 trillion yuan for social security and employment, 10.6 trillion yuan for health, and 4 trillion yuan for housing security, totaling nearly 100 trillion yuan in fiscal investment for people's livelihoods [1]. Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - The fiscal policy has maintained a proactive orientation, focusing on expanding domestic demand, benefiting people's livelihoods, and supporting technological innovation [5][7]. - The deficit ratio has increased from 2.7% to 3.8%, with a further rise to 4% in 2023, and a projected deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan for 2025 [5]. - A total of 11.86 trillion yuan in government bonds has been issued, marking a historical high, including special bonds to support state-owned banks [5]. Debt Management - A comprehensive debt reduction initiative was launched, amounting to 12 trillion yuan, which includes increasing local government debt limits and replacing hidden debts [10]. - By mid-2025, over 60% of financing platforms have exited, indicating significant progress in reducing hidden debts [10]. - The total government debt is projected to be 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 68.7%, which is considered manageable compared to G20 and G7 averages [11]. Future Outlook - The government aims to establish a robust debt management mechanism aligned with high-quality development, ensuring sustainable debt practices and enhancing transparency [12]. - Continued efforts will be made to implement debt reduction measures and improve the management of both hidden and legal debts [12].