2025 年 06 月 30 日 投资策略 估值与盈利周观察——6 月第 4 期：普涨 市场估值普涨，创业板指、成长居前。上周宽基指数估值普涨，创业 板指表现最优，红利表现最弱。从 PE、PB 偏离度的角度看，食品饮料、 农林牧渔、公用事业等行业估值较为便宜。向前看，本周市场 ERP 下降， 处于 21 年以来历史均值附近。 市场表现：微盘股、创业板指、成长表现最好；红利、消费、稳定表 现最弱。 行业表现：计算机、国防军工、非银金融涨幅前三，石油石化、食品 饮料、交通运输表现最弱。 相对估值：创业板指/沪深 300 相对 PE 上升，创业板值/沪深 300 相 对 PB 上升。 全 A ERP：ERP 较前一周下降，处于 21 年以来历史均值附近。 指数 PEG & PB-ROE: 红利 PEG 值最小，科创 50 风格 PB-ROE 值最小。 大类行业估值：金融地产估值高于 50%历史分位，原材料、设备制造、 工业服务、交通运输、消费、科技历史估值处于 50%左右及以下水平。 一级行业估值：各行业估值普涨，非银金融、农林牧渔、家电、食品 饮料估值处于近一年低位。 热门概念：无人驾驶、半导体材料、培育砖石、第 ...

2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.06.16）：缩量反弹 相关研究报告 <<策略日报（2025.06.13）：风险偏好 下降>>--2025-06-13 <<策略日报（2025.06.12）：窄幅震 荡>>--2025-06-13 <<策略日报（2025.06.11）：沪指站上 3400>>--2025-06-11 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 大类资产跟踪 债券市场：利率债高开低走，尾盘几乎收平。我们认为股市波动率仍 在低位，基本面的疲弱将限制上涨的高度，因此未来波动率的抬升更可能 是向下调整，维持债市后续将受益于避险资金的流入的判断。后续展望： 在地缘冲突加剧背景下，随着股市波动率可能抬高，资金避险需求或使得 债券重拾涨势。 A 股：市场低开反弹，三大指数缩量上涨。市场全天成交额 1.24 万 亿，较前一日缩量 0.26 万亿，近 3400 只个股上涨，超 1500 只个股下跌。 我 ...

市场估值普跌，金融、周期居前。上周宽基指数估值普跌，金融表现 最优，科创 50 表现最弱。从 PE、PB 偏离度的角度看，食品饮料、农林 牧渔、公用事业等行业估值较为便宜。向前看，本周市场 ERP 小幅上升， 处于一倍标准差附近。 市场表现：金融、周期、创业板指表现最好；科创 50、消费、国证 2000 表现最弱。 2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资策略 估值与盈利周观察——6 月第 2 期：金融、周期领涨 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/6/17 24/8/28 24/11/8 25/1/19 25/4/1 25/6/12 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 行业表现：有色金属、石油石化、农林牧渔涨幅前三，家用电器、食 品饮料、建筑材料表现最弱。 相对估值：创业板指/沪深 300 相对 PE 下降，创业板值/沪深 300 相 对 PB 下降。 全 A ERP ...

Group 1 - The overall market showed a broad increase, with micro-cap and growth stocks leading the performance, while dividend, stable, and consumer sectors lagged behind [7][9][21] - The performance of various industries was mixed, with non-ferrous metals, communication, and electronics showing the highest gains, while household appliances, food and beverage, and transportation performed the weakest [9][30] - The relative valuation of the ChiNext Index to the CSI 300 increased, indicating a rise in the relative PE and PB ratios [13][21] Group 2 - The overall valuation of broad market indices increased, with major indices exceeding the 50% historical percentile level over the past year, while the ChiNext Index is at a low valuation compared to the past year [21][30] - The valuation of various sectors is differentiated, with non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, communication, electronics, agriculture, and household appliances at near one-year lows [30][33] - From the perspective of PE and PB deviation, industries such as food and beverage, agriculture, public utilities, and household appliances are currently considered relatively cheap [33][39] Group 3 - The earnings expectations across industries were generally revised downwards, with the computer sector seeing the largest upward adjustment and the defense industry experiencing the most significant downward revision [42]

2025 年 06 月 03 日 投资策略 估值与盈利周观察——5 月第 4 期：小微盘占优 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/6/3 24/8/14 24/10/25 25/1/5 25/3/18 25/5/29 证券分析师：张冬冬 大类行业估值：原材料、设备制造、工业服务、交通运输、消费、科 技历史估值皆处于 50%以下，金融地产估值高于 50%历史分位。 一级行业估值：各行业估值分化，非银金融、有色金属、通信、电子、 农林牧渔、家电估值处于近一年低位。 电话： E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 电话： E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 市场估值分化，小微盘占优。上周宽基指数估值分化，微盘股表现最 优，创业板指表现最弱。从 PE、PB 偏离度的角度看，食品饮料、农林牧 渔、公用事业等行业估值较为便宜。向前看，本周市场 ERP 与前一周持 平，处于一倍标准差附近。 市场表现：微盘股、国证 2000、稳定表现最好； ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a broad rally, with the military industry and telecommunications leading the gains. The ChiNext Index performed the best, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index lagged behind [3][12]. - The overall market valuation increased, with the broad-based indices showing a general rise. The ChiNext Index is currently at a low valuation compared to its historical levels [15][27]. - The defense and military, electric equipment, and telecommunications sectors saw the highest increases, while real estate, electronics, and retail sectors performed the weakest [12][36]. Group 2 - The relative PE of the ChiNext Index to the CSI 300 has risen, indicating a shift in valuation dynamics favoring the ChiNext [17]. - The overall ERP for the A-share market has slightly decreased but remains within one standard deviation, suggesting continued investment value in A-shares [18]. - Valuations across major industries are diverging, with non-bank financials, coal, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, electronics, and agriculture at near one-year lows [29][39]. Group 3 - The current valuation of the food and beverage, agriculture, and public utilities sectors is considered relatively cheap based on PE and PB deviation metrics [39][44]. - The current PEG values indicate that dividend and financial sectors have the lowest valuations, suggesting high allocation value [21]. - The popular concepts such as cultivated diamonds, Huawei Harmony, and robotics are currently at high historical valuation percentiles [46].