2025 年 09 月 24 日 投资策略 估值与盈利周观察——9 月第 3 期：分化 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% 24/9/24 24/12/5 25/2/15 25/4/28 25/7/9 25/9/19 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 大类行业估值：金融地产估值高于 50%历史分位，原材料、设备制造、 工业服务、交通运输、消费、科技历史估值处于 50%左右及以下水平。 一级行业估值：各行业估值涨跌分化，非银金融、农林牧渔、家电估 值处于近一年低位。 热门概念：半导体、科技板块中细分行业、机器人、中字头央企等概 念估值处于三年历史较高分位。 盈利预期：各行业盈利预期整体微幅变动，传媒上调幅度最大；美容 护理下调幅度最大。 市场估值分化，创业板指与科创 50 居前。上周宽基指数估值分化， 创业板指表现最优，金融指数表现最弱。从 PE、PB 偏离度的角度看，食 品饮料、农 ...

Group 1 - The market saw a broad increase, with the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50 leading the performance, while the dividend and micro-cap indices lagged behind [10][12] - The communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors showed the highest gains, whereas the banking, steel, and textile sectors performed the weakest [12][31] - The relative PE of the ChiNext Index to the CSI 300 increased, indicating a rising valuation compared to the broader market [17][22] Group 2 - The overall valuation of major indices is at a high percentile compared to the past year, with the ChiNext Index showing a PE of 36.2 and a PB of 4.6, indicating a premium valuation [23][31] - The financial and real estate sectors are valued above the 50% historical percentile, while materials, equipment manufacturing, industrial services, transportation, consumption, and technology are below 50% [24][34] - The food and beverage, agriculture, and public utilities sectors are currently considered undervalued, with their valuations at near one-year lows [34][41] Group 3 - The report highlights that the semiconductor materials, digital currency, and 6G sectors are currently at high valuation percentiles compared to their three-year history [41][42] - The profitability expectations across various industries have seen slight adjustments, with the beauty and personal care sector experiencing the largest upward revision [4][20] - The report suggests that the current valuation of the non-bank financial, public utilities, agriculture, food and beverage, and social services sectors is relatively low based on the PB-ROE perspective [38][39]

Group 1 - The overall market valuation has increased, with the ChiNext Index performing the best, while the dividend index showed the weakest performance [1][10] - The computer, defense, and non-bank financial sectors experienced the highest gains, while the oil, food and beverage, and transportation sectors performed the weakest [13][35] - The relative PE and PB of the ChiNext Index compared to the CSI 300 have both increased, indicating a shift in valuation dynamics [17][26] Group 2 - The overall valuation of broad market indices has risen, with the majority of indices above the 50% historical percentile [15][26] - The financial and real estate sectors are valued above the 50% historical percentile, while materials, equipment manufacturing, industrial services, transportation, consumption, and technology sectors are at or below the 50% level [28][39] - The valuation of the food and beverage, agriculture, public utilities, and home appliance sectors is currently considered relatively cheap [39][44] Group 3 - The overall profit expectations across industries have shown slight changes, with the largest upward adjustments and the computer sector experiencing the most significant downward revision [50]

Group 1 - The market experienced a general decline, with financial and cyclical sectors performing the best, while the STAR 50, consumer, and CSI 2000 indices lagged behind [3][9] - Among industries, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery showed the highest gains, while household appliances, food and beverage, and building materials performed the weakest [11][12] - The relative PE of the ChiNext index to the CSI 300 decreased, and the relative PB also declined [16] Group 2 - The overall valuation of broad market indices fell, with the current valuations of major indices above the 50% historical percentile level, while the ChiNext index is at a low valuation compared to the past year [24] - Valuation differentiation is evident across industries, with financial real estate valuations above the 50% historical percentile, while materials, equipment manufacturing, industrial services, transportation, consumption, and technology are at or below the 50% level [26] Group 3 - The current valuation of the food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and public utilities sectors is relatively cheap, indicating potential investment opportunities [37] - The PB-ROE perspective shows that non-bank financials, public utilities, agriculture, food and beverage, and social services have lower PB-ROE ratios, suggesting they may be undervalued [40] Group 4 - Current popular concepts such as autonomous driving, cultivated diamonds, third-generation semiconductors, digital currency, 6G, robotics, central state-owned enterprises, and large aircraft are at historically high valuation percentiles over the past three years [43]

Group 1 - The overall market showed a broad increase, with micro-cap and growth stocks leading the performance, while dividend, stable, and consumer sectors lagged behind [7][9][21] - The performance of various industries was mixed, with non-ferrous metals, communication, and electronics showing the highest gains, while household appliances, food and beverage, and transportation performed the weakest [9][30] - The relative valuation of the ChiNext Index to the CSI 300 increased, indicating a rise in the relative PE and PB ratios [13][21] Group 2 - The overall valuation of broad market indices increased, with major indices exceeding the 50% historical percentile level over the past year, while the ChiNext Index is at a low valuation compared to the past year [21][30] - The valuation of various sectors is differentiated, with non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, communication, electronics, agriculture, and household appliances at near one-year lows [30][33] - From the perspective of PE and PB deviation, industries such as food and beverage, agriculture, public utilities, and household appliances are currently considered relatively cheap [33][39] Group 3 - The earnings expectations across industries were generally revised downwards, with the computer sector seeing the largest upward adjustment and the defense industry experiencing the most significant downward revision [42]

Group 1 - The report indicates a market differentiation with micro-cap stocks outperforming, while the ChiNext index and cyclical stocks lag behind [3][10] - The valuation of broad market indices shows divergence, with micro-cap stocks, the CSI 2000, and stable stocks performing the best, while the ChiNext index, cyclical stocks, and the CSI 300 performed the weakest [3][10] - The report highlights that the industries with relatively cheap valuations include food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and public utilities [39][28] Group 2 - The report notes that the pharmaceutical, environmental protection, and national defense industries had the highest gains last week, while the automotive, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals sectors performed the weakest [12][35] - Relative valuations show a decline in the ChiNext index compared to the CSI 300 in terms of PE and PB ratios [17][26] - The report states that the overall valuation of major indices is above the 50% historical percentile, with the ChiNext index at a low valuation compared to the past year [26][28] Group 3 - The report identifies that the current valuation of major industries is mixed, with non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, electronics, agriculture, and home appliances at near one-year lows [35][39] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation levels of materials, equipment manufacturing, industrial services, transportation, consumption, and technology are all below the 50% historical percentile [28][39] - The report highlights that the current valuation of the environmental protection sector is at a high historical percentile, indicating strong performance expectations [39][50] Group 4 - The report mentions that the earnings expectations across various industries are nearly flat, with the largest upward adjustment in the environmental sector and the largest downward adjustment in electric equipment [50][50] - The report indicates that popular concepts such as cultivated diamonds, third-generation semiconductors, 6G, and robotics are at historically high valuation percentiles over the past three years [47][48]