证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 10 月 09 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20251009 今日关注 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为 1.32%，深证成指涨跌幅为 1.47%， 创业板指涨跌幅为 0.73%。 申万一级行业表现：有色金属、钢铁、煤炭在行业涨跌幅榜居前；汽车、 食品饮料、商贸零售在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 概念板块表现：总体来看，稀土、稀有金属、钴矿概念表现相对较好； 影视、免税店、光刻胶概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 3 / 5 资 ...

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 increased from 1.5160% to 1.5538%, a rise of 3.78 basis points; DR007 rose from 1.5096% to 1.5313%, an increase of 2.17 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 widened by 1.61 basis points [9][13] - The net inflow of funds this week was 31.344 billion yuan, an increase of 81.749 billion yuan compared to last week. Fund supply was 104.51 billion yuan, while fund demand was 73.166 billion yuan. Specifically, fund supply decreased by 42.373 billion yuan, with net financing purchases down by 20.201 billion yuan and stock dividends down by 28.005 billion yuan [13][16] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index declined, with a weak overall market style and a continued pattern of sector differentiation. The number of declining sectors exceeded that of rising sectors, with the electronic sector showing the most significant increase of 3.67% [18][20] - The consumer services and retail trade sectors led the declines, with decreases of 6.71% and 3.92%, respectively [18][20] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - Growth style had the largest increase of 1.58%, while consumer style experienced the largest decline of 2.18%. Growth style accounted for 61.88% of the average daily trading volume, making it the most active sector [3][21] - The average turnover rate for growth style remained the highest at 3.37%, while financial and stable styles had relatively low turnover rates [3][21]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline, with 2,990 stocks falling and 2,295 rising as of September 4, indicating mixed performance in the market [1] - The communication, electronics, and defense industries led the decline, while retail, banking, and coal sectors showed gains [1] Market Adjustment and Future Outlook - According to a report from Founder Securities, the A-share market has seen a 4.6% decline since September 2, which is considered a normal short-term adjustment [2] - Historical analysis shows that previous bull markets in A-shares have experienced similar short-term corrections, with significant declines in trading volume during these periods [2] - Multiple positive factors are expected to support the long-term upward trend of the Chinese capital market, including a stable economic outlook, low valuations, and increasing dividends and buybacks [2] Market Sentiment and Policy Implications - Minsheng Securities highlighted the importance of market stability and inclusivity, suggesting that recent military parades have influenced market sentiment [3] - The focus will shift towards the intersection of overseas volatility and domestic policy expectations, especially with the anticipated easing of U.S. monetary policy and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] Long-term Bull Market Potential - According to Zhang Yidong from Industrial Securities, both A-shares and H-shares are expected to enter a prolonged bull market, driven by China's unique financial development path [4] - The shift of social wealth from safe assets to the stock market is seen as a key variable for mid-term market trends, with policies encouraging long-term capital inflow [4] Capital Flow and Market Dynamics - Zhang Yidong noted that the sustained profitability of the Chinese stock market could attract global capital back to A-shares and H-shares, especially with a potential weakening of the U.S. dollar [5] - The recent increase in market liquidity, driven by institutional participation and public fund reforms, is expected to support the A-share market [5][6]

Core Insights - The banking sector experienced the highest net inflow of funds today, amounting to 2.925 billion, with a price change of 0.79% and a turnover rate of 0.48% [1] - The electronics sector faced the largest net outflow of funds, totaling -22.341 billion, with a price change of -5.08% and a turnover rate of 4.77% [1] Industry Summary - **Banking**: - Trading volume: 6.439 billion shares, change: +43.21% - Net inflow: 2.925 billion [1] - **Retail**: - Trading volume: 6.740 billion shares, change: +39.91% - Net inflow: 1.865 billion [1] - **Beauty Care**: - Trading volume: 0.345 billion shares, change: +35.94% - Net inflow: 0.083 billion [1] - **Transportation**: - Trading volume: 4.083 billion shares, change: +10.51% - Net outflow: -0.103 billion [1] - **Oil and Petrochemicals**: - Trading volume: 1.985 billion shares, change: +24.95% - Net outflow: -0.152 billion [1] - **Textiles and Apparel**: - Trading volume: 2.424 billion shares, change: +1.61% - Net outflow: -0.188 billion [1] - **Coal**: - Trading volume: 1.437 billion shares, change: -7.93% - Net outflow: -0.285 billion [1] - **Utilities**: - Trading volume: 5.285 billion shares, change: -10.97% - Net outflow: -0.287 billion [1] - **Construction and Decoration**: - Trading volume: 4.495 billion shares, change: +1.90% - Net outflow: -0.322 billion [1] - **Social Services**: - Trading volume: 2.422 billion shares, change: +12.11% - Net outflow: -0.360 billion [1] - **Environmental Protection**: - Trading volume: 2.677 billion shares, change: +20.86% - Net outflow: -0.404 billion [1] - **Comprehensive**: - Trading volume: 0.607 billion shares, change: -4.14% - Net outflow: -0.424 billion [1] - **Light Industry Manufacturing**: - Trading volume: 3.068 billion shares, change: +11.35% - Net outflow: -0.429 billion [1] - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery**: - Trading volume: 2.462 billion shares, change: +8.74% - Net outflow: -0.450 billion [1] - **Building Materials**: - Trading volume: 1.629 billion shares, change: +12.81% - Net outflow: -0.503 billion [1] - **Food and Beverage**: - Trading volume: 2.044 billion shares, change: +21.34% - Net outflow: -0.820 billion [1] - **Steel**: - Trading volume: 3.056 billion shares, change: +4.60% - Net outflow: -0.838 billion [1] - **Non-Bank Financials**: - Trading volume: 7.876 billion shares, change: +2.09% - Net outflow: -1.359 billion [1] - **Home Appliances**: - Trading volume: 2.000 billion shares, change: +0.94% - Net outflow: -1.436 billion [1] - **Real Estate**: - Trading volume: 4.370 billion shares, change: -5.06% - Net outflow: -1.599 billion [1] - **Power Equipment**: - Trading volume: 12.043 billion shares, change: +26.27% - Net outflow: -1.867 billion [1] - **Media**: - Trading volume: 5.071 billion shares, change: -6.92% - Net outflow: -2.279 billion [1] - **Basic Chemicals**: - Trading volume: 7.369 billion shares, change: +7.28% - Net outflow: -3.151 billion [1] - **Defense and Military**: - Trading volume: 2.876 billion shares, change: -17.63% - Net outflow: -4.956 billion [1] - **Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology**: - Trading volume: 7.053 billion shares, change: +6.05% - Net outflow: -5.064 billion [1] - **Automobiles**: - Trading volume: 7.898 billion shares, change: -3.79% - Net outflow: -5.163 billion [1] - **Machinery and Equipment**: - Trading volume: 10.746 billion shares, change: -3.04% - Net outflow: -7.929 billion [1] - **Nonferrous Metals**: - Trading volume: 8.829 billion shares, change: +3.56% - Net outflow: -8.914 billion [1] - **Telecommunications**: - Trading volume: 5.069 billion shares, change: +16.33% - Net outflow: -10.634 billion [1] - **Computers**: - Trading volume: 9.137 billion shares, change: -3.90% - Net outflow: -15.159 billion [1] - **Electronics**: - Trading volume: 13.252 billion shares, change: +11.17% - Net outflow: -22.341 billion [1]

Group 1 - The overall profit growth rate of A-shares has rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year growth rate of +4.7% as of August 27, 2025, compared to a decline of -3.32% in the same period of 2024 [5][7][9] - The disclosure rate of A-share mid-term reports reached 81.1%, with 4,401 out of 5,426 listed companies having disclosed their performance [5][7][9] - Among the disclosed companies, 47.1% achieved positive profit growth, with the main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market showing varying growth rates [5][9][10] Group 2 - The cyclical and growth industries have shown superior profit growth rates, particularly in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, steel, building materials, media, computers, non-ferrous metals, and electronics, with growth rates reaching as high as 194% and 168% [9][10][18] - The banking, non-banking, automotive, and other sectors also reported high proportions of positive profit growth, with non-banking financials at 84.9% and automotive at 57.1% [9][10][18] - Conversely, industries such as real estate, coal, and light manufacturing reported negative profit growth rates, with real estate at -128% [9][10][18] Group 3 - Industrial profit growth has improved, with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate for industrial enterprises in April to June 2025 at -1.8%, an improvement from -3.3% in 2024 [12][13][16] - Specific sectors such as transportation, electrical new energy, non-ferrous metals, and machinery have shown high profit growth rates, with transportation at 39.2% and electrical new energy at 13.0% [12][16][17] - The automotive sector also experienced a slight profit increase of 3.6% during the same period [12][16][17] Group 4 - The real estate, computer, and other industries face low year-on-year growth rate bases, which may benefit their performance in 2025 [18][19] - Industries like agriculture, electronics, and automotive had high growth rates in 2024, which may pose challenges in 2025 due to high base effects [18][19] - Conversely, sectors such as steel, building materials, and media are expected to benefit from low base effects, with significant year-on-year growth rates anticipated [18][19] Group 5 - The upstream sectors, particularly non-ferrous metals, have seen price increases, contributing to improved industry sentiment [21][22] - The midstream sectors, including electronics and transportation, have also shown signs of recovery, with significant profit growth in the first half of 2025 [31][33] - Downstream sectors like automotive and retail are expected to improve, driven by strong demand and supportive policies [37][38]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.35% today, with a trading volume of 1,031.07 million shares and a transaction value of 15,912.20 billion yuan, representing a 3.66% increase compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Beauty and Personal Care: Up 1.84% with a transaction value of 68.33 billion yuan, led by Jieya Co., which rose by 11.58% [1]. - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: Up 1.65% with a transaction value of 227.16 billion yuan, led by Guotou Zhonglu, which increased by 10.00% [1]. - Oil and Petrochemicals: Up 1.41% with a transaction value of 114.49 billion yuan, led by Zhunyou Co., which rose by 10.05% [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Machinery: Down 0.61% with a transaction value of 1,243.69 billion yuan, led by Hongyuan Co., which fell by 11.45% [2]. - Electric Equipment: Down 0.59% with a transaction value of 1,092.20 billion yuan, led by Wolong Electric Drive, which decreased by 8.72% [2]. - Food and Beverage: Down 0.12% with a transaction value of 301.59 billion yuan, led by Guifaxiang, which fell by 4.03% [2]. Summary of Key Stocks - Notable gainers included: - Jieya Co. in the Beauty and Personal Care sector, up 11.58% [1]. - Guotou Zhonglu in Agriculture, up 10.00% [1]. - Zhunyou Co. in Oil and Petrochemicals, up 10.05% [1]. - Notable decliners included: - Hongyuan Co. in Machinery, down 11.45% [2]. - Wolong Electric Drive in Electric Equipment, down 8.72% [2]. - Guifaxiang in Food and Beverage, down 4.03% [2].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong performance this week, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index recording significant gains, while the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50 Index lagged behind [1][14][16] - The market style this week favored small-cap growth and small-cap value stocks, while large-cap growth and mid-cap growth stocks underperformed [1][16] - Most sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry classification saw gains, with defense, non-ferrous metals, and machinery equipment leading the way, while pharmaceuticals, computers, and retail sectors experienced declines [1][16] Group 2 - The overall domestic market is performing well, supported by accumulating internal and external favorable factors, with expectations for continued strong performance in the future [2][22] - The weak U.S. labor market, highlighted by July's non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, has raised concerns about the U.S. economy and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [2][22][23] - Domestic policies are actively supporting the market, with July exports growing by 7.2% year-on-year, indicating resilience in foreign trade despite a complex international environment [4][48] Group 3 - The market is expected to reach new highs in the second half of the year, driven by short-term expectations and liquidity improvements, with a shift from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven market dynamics [5][62] - Short-term focus should be on previously lagging sectors and those likely to benefit from improved overseas liquidity, while long-term attention should be on consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend stocks [5][63][67][68][69] - Specific sectors to watch include machinery equipment and power equipment for short-term gains, and pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and food and beverage sectors for long-term benefits from overseas liquidity improvements [5][63][68]

Group 1 - The fund aims to invest in consumer sectors that enhance the quality of life, with a focus on achieving returns that exceed the performance benchmark while strictly controlling investment risks [2][5] - The fund employs a top-down analysis approach for asset allocation, tracking macroeconomic indicators and policy changes to make strategic investment decisions [2][10] - The fund's performance benchmark is a composite of various indices, including the CSI Major Consumer Industry Index and the Hang Seng Index, reflecting a diversified investment strategy [2][10] Group 2 - During the reporting period from April 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025, the fund's Class A shares achieved a net value growth rate of 4.32%, while Class C shares recorded a growth rate of 4.11% [10] - The fund's investment portfolio is heavily weighted in equities, with stocks accounting for 92.38% of total assets, while bonds represent only 0.18% [12] - The fund's top ten holdings do not include any securities that are under regulatory investigation or have faced public reprimands in the past year [15] Group 3 - The report indicates a stable domestic economic environment, with China's retail sales growth improving to 6.4% in May, up from 3.5% in April, suggesting a positive trend in consumer spending [9] - The A-share market remains active, with major indices showing upward movement, particularly in sectors like defense, beauty care, and light manufacturing [9][10] - The outlook for new consumption trends, particularly in areas like trendy products and beauty care, is optimistic, driven by innovation and changing consumer preferences [10] Group 4 - The fund's total share count at the end of the reporting period was 197,750,306.53 shares, with Class A shares totaling 97,420,757.23 and Class C shares totaling 100,329,549.30 [2][17] - The fund management has adhered to legal regulations and internal policies, ensuring fair trading practices and no instances of unfair trading or profit transfer between different investment portfolios [8][6] - The fund's investment strategy includes a focus on high-growth sectors such as services, brand consumer goods, and technology, indicating a forward-looking approach to capitalizing on market opportunities [10]

Market Overview - On July 9, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.06%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.16%. The CSI 300 Index declined by 0.18% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 1,856 stocks rose, accounting for 34.33%, while 3,327 stocks fell [1] Capital Flow - The main capital saw a net outflow of 38.536 billion yuan throughout the day. The ChiNext experienced a net outflow of 13.082 billion yuan, the STAR Market saw a net outflow of 3.036 billion yuan, and the CSI 300 constituents had a net outflow of 7.698 billion yuan [1] - Only three industries saw net inflows of capital: Media industry with a rise of 1.35% and a net inflow of 1.055 billion yuan; Retail industry with a rise of 0.48% and a net inflow of 0.864 billion yuan; and Construction Decoration industry with a rise of 0.37% and a net inflow of 4.034 million yuan [1] Industry Performance - Among the 28 industries that experienced net outflows, the Electronics industry had the largest outflow, declining by 0.82% with a net outflow of 7.789 billion yuan. The Non-ferrous Metals industry followed with a decline of 2.26% and a net outflow of 5.412 billion yuan [1] - The top-performing industries included Media and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, with increases of 1.35% and 0.65%, respectively. The worst-performing industries were Non-ferrous Metals and Basic Chemicals, with declines of 2.26% and 0.85% [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1,686 stocks saw net inflows, with 524 stocks having inflows exceeding 10 million yuan. Notably, 57 stocks had inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Kuaijingtong leading at an increase of 10.10% and a net inflow of 896 million yuan [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Zhongyou Capital, Dongfang Caifu, and Zijin Mining, with outflows of 721 million yuan, 706 million yuan, and 625 million yuan, respectively [2]

Core Insights - The defense and military industry saw the highest net inflow of funds today, amounting to 3.315 billion yuan, with a price increase of 4.35% and a turnover rate of 4.70% [1][2] - The non-bank financial sector experienced the largest net outflow of funds, totaling -2.580 billion yuan, with a price decrease of -0.77% and a turnover rate of 1.69% [1][2] Industry Performance Summary - **Defense and Military**: - Trading volume: 5.078 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +13.64% - Turnover rate: 4.70% - Price change: +4.35% - Net inflow: 3.315 billion yuan [1] - **Media**: - Trading volume: 4.605 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +20.53% - Turnover rate: 3.15% - Price change: +2.82% - Net inflow: 1.441 billion yuan [1] - **Non-Bank Financial**: - Trading volume: 6.978 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -35.15% - Turnover rate: 1.69% - Price change: -0.77% - Net outflow: -2.580 billion yuan [1][2] - **Automotive**: - Trading volume: 5.573 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -0.31% - Turnover rate: 2.57% - Price change: +0.74% - Net inflow: 0.590 billion yuan [1] - **Power Equipment**: - Trading volume: 8.226 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +4.65% - Turnover rate: 3.31% - Price change: +1.38% - Net inflow: 0.451 billion yuan [1] - **Pharmaceuticals**: - Trading volume: 4.730 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +5.81% - Turnover rate: 1.74% - Price change: +1.06% - Net outflow: -0.323 billion yuan [2] - **Electronics**: - Trading volume: 9.075 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -1.60% - Turnover rate: 3.29% - Price change: +1.44% - Net outflow: -2.391 billion yuan [2]