在最近的文章中，我们关注了土耳其基建产业的崛起。本世纪初埃尔多安上台后，面对民众提升住房条件的殷切期望，通过各种政策与法律，大力发展房 地产。和"基建狂魔"中国的发展路径相似，"基建小狂魔"土耳其也经历过一个大基建时代。 在大基建的过程中，埃尔多安政府还把基建变成了国家能力，实行财富再分配，让大量来自中东部的农村居民进入城市，实现阶级跃迁，成为支持自己的 铁票仓。 在政策倾斜下，有不少基建商迅速成长为新贵。被戏称为"五人帮"的五家建筑公司，被认为与埃尔多安政府存在深度的利益勾兑。在国内赚得盆满钵满 的"五人帮"，势必要将手伸向海外市场。 光靠国内市场可能已经无法满足其利益需求▼ 作为"五人帮"之一的土耳其第二大建商Limak，就在莫桑比克和科特迪瓦投产了百万吨级的海外水泥产能。 据工程界权威榜单《工程新闻纪录》（ENR）统计，全球最大的250家国际承包商中，土耳其共有42家企业上榜，位居第二，仅次于中国的79家。可以 说，土耳其已经拥有相当数量的大型基建龙头企业，亟需走向海外市场。 中国和土耳其这两个发展路径相似的"基建狂魔"，在海外拓展的过程中，必然会发生激烈竞争。 过剩与输出 当我们理解了土耳其这个"基建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of Turkey as a new "infrastructure powerhouse" competing with China in the global construction market, highlighting Turkey's unique economic model and the role of government in driving infrastructure development [4][5]. Group 1: Turkey's Infrastructure Era - Turkey's infrastructure capabilities have surged, closely linked to the real estate sector becoming a pillar of its economy [6][7]. - Urbanization in Turkey accelerated from 48.1% in 1983 to 65.95% in 2002, leading to a significant number of substandard housing and informal settlements [8][9]. - By the early 21st century, approximately 10 million illegal buildings existed, accounting for 62% of total housing, with around 20 million people living in slums [8][10]. Group 2: Economic Dependency on Infrastructure - Post-2008 financial crisis, Turkey's reliance on infrastructure became institutionalized, shifting from an export-driven economy to one focused on domestic demand through construction [15][19]. - The construction sector became a key driver of economic growth, with GDP growth averaging 4.9% from 2002 to 2014, while the construction industry grew at 6.5% [13][14]. - The construction industry’s share of total employment rose from 5.6% in 2005 to 7.4% in 2014, reflecting its importance in job creation [13][14]. Group 3: Government and Infrastructure - The Turkish government has significantly expanded the powers of the Ministry of Urbanization, facilitating large-scale construction projects through legislative support [22][23]. - The area of building permits issued increased from 36 million square meters in 2002 to 219 million square meters in 2014, a growth of over 500% [23]. - The Housing Development Administration of Turkey (TOKİ) has played a crucial role in providing social housing, constructing over 1.4 million units from 2003 to 2023 [24]. Group 4: Infrastructure as National Capability - The Erdogan government has transformed infrastructure capabilities into national strength, enabling wealth redistribution and creating a new middle class from rural migrants [26][30]. - The close ties between major construction firms and the government have led to allegations of favoritism and corruption, with five major companies being particularly influential [30][31]. - As domestic real estate markets saturate, Turkish construction firms are increasingly looking to expand internationally, raising questions about their competitive positioning against Chinese firms [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the special tone of the recent National Two Sessions, highlighting the effects of previous economic stimulus and the anticipation of upcoming stimulus measures, reflecting a unique expectation from the public [5]. Summary by Sections National Two Sessions Overview - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People's Congress (NPC) held their sessions on March 3 and March 4, respectively, with significant data shared, including a GDP exceeding 134 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 5% [3]. - The sessions are characterized by a focus on current macroeconomic changes and hot topics, with a closer connection to recent updates compared to previous years [3][4]. Key Agenda Items - The CPPCC session will last six days, focusing on reviewing reports and discussing government work [9]. - The NPC session will last seven days, with key agendas including the review of government work reports and budget plans for 2025 [11]. Economic Targets and KPIs - The expected GDP growth target for 2025 is around 5%, with a potential CPI target down to 2% and a fiscal deficit rate projected to rise to 3.8%-4% [15][17]. - The GDP growth target reflects a slight decrease from the previous year's average growth target of 5.3% [17]. Economic Stimulus Measures - The fiscal spending plan includes a projected deficit of 5.5 trillion yuan and an increase in broad fiscal funds by approximately 2 trillion yuan, reaching 12 trillion yuan [21]. - Special bonds are expected to be issued for significant projects, including 1.5-2 trillion yuan for long-term special bonds and 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan for bank capital injections [21]. Consumption, Investment, and Export Dynamics - Consumption is projected to contribute 44.5% to economic growth in 2024, while investment and exports contribute 25.2% and 30.3%, respectively [28][30]. - The focus on consumption is expected to increase, with many local governments prioritizing domestic demand and consumption in their annual goals [33]. Industry Focus - The article highlights emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, and digital economy as key areas of interest for future growth [44]. Public Interest Proposals - Various proposals from NPC representatives focus on enhancing public welfare, including suggestions for paid leave policies, tax adjustments, and support for elderly care, reflecting a growing concern for social issues [49].

Macro Analysis - The upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) is expected to maintain an economic growth target of around 5%[11] - Key focuses include boosting consumption, fiscal and monetary policy coordination, and structural reforms to improve the business environment[11] - Five major industry themes for 2025 are identified: AI and AI+, quality consumption, new urbanization, infrastructure overseas, and food security[11] Market Impact - The NPC is anticipated to establish industry trends with policies supporting AI and AI+ as the most significant trends for 2025[16] - Enhancing consumer sentiment and happiness is a core policy concern, with current consumption performance being relatively weak[16] - The transition from old to new economic drivers will take time, with price rather than volume being a key factor influencing major asset changes in 2025[16] Investment Highlights - Jiufeng Energy (605090.SH) shows steady growth in clean energy with LNG domestic sales increasing, and the company’s gross profit per ton is improving[17] - Solid growth in the traditional Chinese medicine sector is noted for Guoshengtang (02273.HK), with a CAGR of 26.2% from 2018 to 2023[21] - Ximai Food (002956.SZ) has seen a steady increase in revenue, with a 5-year CAGR of 13.1% despite profit fluctuations[24] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential underperformance of policy support, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and competition in various sectors[7][12][30]