Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that companies in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Hubei, Hunan, and Sichuan-Chongqing are actively discussing staggered production plans, which may lead to a recovery in cement prices if industry self-discipline measures are effectively implemented [1] - The establishment of Xinjiang Railway Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 95 billion yuan, along with key projects like the Three Gorges Waterway and the Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Canal, is expected to bring incremental demand for cement [1] - The average shipment rate of enterprises in key regions of the cement market is approximately 44%, and the medium to long-term supply-demand pattern is expected to improve with the recovery of infrastructure demand [1] Group 2 - The Building Materials ETF (159745) tracks the construction materials index (931009), which selects listed companies involved in cement, glass, ceramics, and other basic and new building materials to reflect the overall performance of related securities [1] - The index has both cyclical and growth characteristics, covering the entire industrial chain of building and decoration materials [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI All-Share Building Materials ETF Initiated Link C (013020) and Guotai CSI All-Share Building Materials ETF Initiated Link A (013019) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The cement industry is experiencing a price surge driven by stable demand from infrastructure projects and coordinated supply-side measures, alongside a decline in coal costs that supports profit recovery [1][7]. Demand Side - The National People's Congress has increased fiscal funding, leading to a steady release of infrastructure demand. As of February 27, 2025, the national construction site resumption rate was 64.6%, with a labor arrival rate of 61.7% and a funding availability rate of 49.1% [3]. - Despite a slight year-on-year decline in construction site resumption rates post-Spring Festival, recent weeks have shown significant improvement. Predictions indicate a 35%-40% growth in small excavator sales in January-February 2025, supporting future construction demand [3]. - The government plans to increase the deficit ratio to around 4% and issue 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds, focusing on investment construction and debt resolution [3]. Supply Side - The staggered production shutdowns have been extended, with key regions like Zhejiang, Anhui, and Fujian experiencing increased shutdown durations compared to the previous year. As of February 27, 2025, the clinker inventory ratio was at 45%, down 23 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The average annual shutdown days for provinces with announced staggered production plans is projected to reach 189 days, indicating a potential for further reductions in supply pressure due to enhanced cooperation among enterprises [4]. Profitability - The average price of cement (P.O42.5, bulk) in January-February 2025 was 342.56 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.25 yuan/ton year-on-year. The decline in coal prices has further released profit margins, with the average price of thermal coal down by 172.16 yuan/ton [5]. - As of March 1, 2025, the national average cement price was 338.20 yuan/ton, up 18.50 yuan/ton from the previous year, indicating a high elasticity in gross profit for major companies due to recent price increases [5].