证券日报网讯 塔牌集团8月8日发布公告，在公司回答调研者提问时表示，今年上半年粤东市场水泥价 格较稳定，主要得益于粤东周边的福建地区错峰生产执行情况好，市场秩序明显向好，通过公路运输到 粤东的低价水泥数量同步有所减少。粤东地区目前严格执行广东省水泥行业协会制定的全省统一错峰生 产政策，尚未采取更严格的地方性措施。2025年，广东全省所有熟料生产线全年常态化生产计划停窑95 天/窑，较2024年增加了15天，错峰停窑天数增加，有效减少水泥的供应量，对水泥价格形成一定的支 撑。从上半年的执行情况看，广东行业错峰生产政策执行情况良好，在当前国家"反内卷"要求下，行业 错峰生产政策约束力较强。 （编辑 王雪儿） ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the cement industry, with expectations of continued pressure on demand and pricing, leading to a challenging environment for profitability [2][38]. Core Insights - The cement industry is experiencing weak demand due to ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, with a significant decline in new construction and investment [4][38]. - Despite a slight recovery in profitability in early 2025, the overall outlook remains bleak as prices have entered a downward trend since April 2025, exacerbated by increased competition and falling coal prices [2][15][38]. - Structural overcapacity in the cement industry persists, with slow progress in capacity reduction measures, leading to heightened competition and pressure on prices [2][4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Cement Industry Operations - The cement demand remains weak, with real estate development investment showing a negative growth rate of -11.20% in the first half of 2025, and new construction area down by 20.00% [4][5]. - Cement production in the first half of 2025 reached 815 million tons, the lowest since 2010, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.30% [5][7]. - The industry is facing significant overcapacity, with a utilization rate of approximately 50.8% for cement production [7]. 2. Cement Price Performance - Cement prices have been on a downward trend since April 2025, influenced by falling coal prices and increased competition, despite a brief recovery in early 2025 [9][10]. - The inventory levels have fluctuated, with a notable increase in the inventory ratio following the end of seasonal production cuts [10][14]. 3. Industry Profitability - In the first quarter of 2025, the number of loss-making cement companies decreased, with total revenue for major listed companies down by 16.64% year-on-year, but losses reduced by 91.03% [15][31]. - The overall profitability of the cement industry is expected to remain under pressure, with continued losses anticipated if effective supply control measures are not implemented [15][38]. 4. Policy Dynamics - The government continues to enforce structural adjustments in the cement industry, including capacity replacement policies and seasonal production cuts to address supply-demand imbalances [17][21]. - New policies have been introduced to enhance the effectiveness of production cuts and to ensure compliance among cement producers [21][22]. 5. Bond Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the cement industry saw an increase in bond issuance, with a total of 30 bonds issued amounting to 31.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.28% [26][27]. - The majority of bond issuers are high-credit-rated state-owned enterprises, indicating a controlled credit risk environment [26][38].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The cement industry in the first half of 2025 showed a trend of "weak demand, fluctuating prices, and improved profitability" [2] - National cement production decreased by 4.3% to 815 million tons, while Guangdong's cement consumption fell by 4.95% to 61.01 million tons [2] - Fixed asset investment in Guangdong dropped by 9.7%, with infrastructure investment increasing by 2.1% and real estate development investment decreasing by 16.3% [2] Group 2: Company Performance - The company achieved a sales volume of 8.11 million tons of cement and clinker, an increase of 10.90% year-on-year [3] - Average cement price decreased by 5.51% to approximately 237 RMB/ton, while average sales cost fell by 6.88% to about 181 RMB/ton [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 435 million RMB, a significant increase of 92.47% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Financial Insights - Investment income (including floating profits) increased significantly due to a recovering capital market, with non-recurring gains rising by 151 million RMB [4] - The company’s financial asset allocation includes 35-40% in low-risk bank deposits, 40-45% in non-principal guaranteed financial products, and 20% in securities investments [11] Group 4: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The cement market in the Pearl River Delta has been experiencing price adjustments, with expectations for stabilization as the traditional sales season approaches [12] - The company aims to achieve a net profit target of 530 million RMB for 2025, with ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency and cost reduction [14] - The overall industry environment is expected to improve due to policies supporting housing, urban renewal, and rural road construction, alongside reduced production costs from lower coal prices [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "anti-involution" policies in the cement and steel industries, highlighting the need for production cuts and capacity adjustments to stabilize prices and improve profitability amid declining demand and prices [1][4][14]. Cement Industry - The China Cement Association issued an opinion on July 1, emphasizing the importance of capacity replacement policies for optimizing the cement industry's structure and promoting high-quality development [3][4]. - Major cement-producing provinces like Shandong and Sichuan are implementing staggered production plans during the flood season, with kiln stoppages of 20 days and 15 days respectively in July [3]. - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with profits expected to decline from 680 billion yuan in 2022 to 320 billion yuan in 2023 and further to 120 billion yuan in 2024, potentially leading to losses in 2025 if competition remains intense [12][16]. Steel Industry - The steel market is also facing significant price declines, with the average price index for ordinary steel expected to drop to 3,506 yuan/ton in 2025, down 331.6 yuan/ton from the previous year [7]. - Steel prices have decreased by 6.51% since the beginning of the year and 16.25% compared to the same period last year, indicating a challenging market environment [8]. - Steel companies in Tangshan are set to implement hard production cuts from July 4 to 15, aiming to reduce iron production capacity by approximately 50,000 tons per day [9]. Market Dynamics - The overall demand for cement and steel is declining, with the construction sector showing insufficient project starts, leading to increased operational pressures on companies [4][12]. - The article notes that the "anti-involution" movement is a response to the oversupply and fierce competition in the market, aiming to prevent systemic collapse in the industry [16][18]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions necessitate a long-term mechanism to address overcapacity and promote high-end differentiation in production to enhance competitiveness and profitability [18].

Core Viewpoint - The cement and steel industries are facing significant challenges due to declining demand and prices, leading to a consensus among companies to implement production cuts and measures to protect profits, termed "anti-involution" policies [1][2][5]. Cement Industry - The China Cement Association issued an opinion on July 1, emphasizing the importance of capacity replacement policies for optimizing the cement industry's structure and promoting high-quality development [1]. - Major cement-producing provinces, Shandong and Sichuan, are implementing staggered production plans during the flood season, with kiln stoppages of 20 days and 15 days respectively in July [1]. - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with profits expected to decrease from 680 billion yuan in 2022 to 320 billion yuan in 2023 and further to 120 billion yuan in 2024, potentially leading to losses in 2025 if competition remains intense [6][9]. - The current average cement price is projected to decline from 419 yuan/ton in 2023 to 386 yuan/ton in 2024, and further to 381 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025 [6]. Steel Industry - The steel market is also under pressure, with prices at historical lows following a peak in 2021. The average price index for steel is expected to drop to approximately 3506 yuan/ton in 2025, down 331.6 yuan/ton from the previous year [3][7]. - Steel production companies are implementing production cuts, particularly in Tangshan, where hard emission reduction measures will be enforced from July 4 to 15, aiming to reduce iron output by about 50,000 tons per day [4]. - The steel industry's profits have significantly decreased, from 4240.9 billion yuan in 2021 to 365.5 billion yuan in 2022, and are projected to be 564.8 billion yuan in 2023 and 291.9 billion yuan in 2024 [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The overall market for both cement and steel is characterized by oversupply and weak demand, leading to a need for structural adjustments to avoid systemic collapse in the industry [9][11]. - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" measures are crucial for achieving a balance between supply and demand during periods of declining demand, which is essential for the healthy development of the industry [9][10]. - The current economic environment necessitates a long-term mechanism to address overcapacity and promote high-end differentiation in production to enhance competitiveness and profit margins [10][11].

Summary of Conference Call on the Cement Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the cement industry in China, particularly the Northeast region, and the government's emphasis on "anti-involution" to maintain international reputation and financial security [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Government Policies**: The Chinese government is taking measures to prevent vicious competition in high-loan sectors like photovoltaics and automobiles, which could threaten financial security. The China Cement Association has issued documents emphasizing capacity replacement and staggered production to regulate industry order [1][2]. - **Staggered Production**: The cement industry is implementing staggered production to achieve short-term benefits. Major enterprises in Northeast China are negotiating production halts to maintain prices, but government-led unified reporting is more effective [1][4]. - **Long-term Planning**: Companies are encouraged to develop 3-5 year plans to shut down inefficient capacity and optimize resource allocation through regional integration and mergers [1][4]. - **Profitability and Pricing**: In 2024, the Northeast market saw a price increase of approximately 100 yuan, leading to an additional profit of about 7 billion yuan. However, demand is expected to decline in 2025, with a significant drop in demand in Heilongjiang [1][7]. - **Cost Control**: Low coal prices are aiding cost control, and current production price maintenance measures can effectively alleviate price pressure [1][4]. Challenges and Considerations - **Industry Concentration**: The cement industry has a low concentration with thousands of companies, making management difficult. Companies need to design reasonable incentive mechanisms to balance sales incentives with corporate profits [5][6]. - **Support for Anti-involution**: While private enterprises support anti-involution, there are disagreements among large groups regarding top-level design [6]. - **Market Dynamics**: The Northeast provinces have relatively independent cement markets, with specific price points needed for profitability: 300 yuan for Liaoning, 350 yuan for Jilin, and 350-400 yuan for Heilongjiang [1][4]. Future Outlook - **Potential for Price Recovery**: There is an expectation that prices may recover after key projects are released in August, but overall profitability may not match last year's levels due to volume losses [1][7]. - **Capacity Reduction**: The industry is looking at reducing excess capacity through quality control and shutting down outdated production lines. The actual capacity is around 2 billion tons, with a need to gradually close down 10% of inefficient capacity [12][19]. Communication and Coordination - **Inter-Enterprise Communication**: Increased communication among enterprises and across regions has led to beneficial outcomes, particularly in establishing trust and collaboration [23]. - **Government Coordination**: There is a need for stronger administrative measures and coordination between government bodies and enterprises to ensure effective policy implementation and address industry challenges [15][18]. Conclusion - The cement industry in China is navigating a complex landscape of government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and preventing excessive competition. Companies are encouraged to adopt long-term strategies while managing immediate pricing pressures and operational challenges. The success of these initiatives will depend on effective communication and collaboration among all stakeholders involved.

Group 1: Sales and Market Performance - Current cement daily sales are slightly lower than in April but show significant growth compared to the same period last year, attributed to favorable weather conditions for construction projects [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's "cement + clinker" sales reached 3.71 million tons, a 2.53% increase year-on-year, while the overall Guangdong market saw a 5.95% decline in cement consumption [2] Group 2: Production and Capacity Management - In 2025, Guangdong's clinker production lines will have a planned shutdown of 95 days per kiln, an increase of 15 days from 2024, which will help support cement prices by reducing supply [3] - The company aims to produce and sell over 16.3 million tons of cement in 2025, with no plans for additional capacity as current production lines are deemed sufficient to meet market demand [4] Group 3: Cost and Pricing Factors - A decrease in coal prices is expected to significantly lower cement production costs, with a 100 CNY/ton drop in coal prices impacting cement costs by approximately 10 CNY/ton, reflecting in Q2 performance [5] - The cement industry is anticipated to benefit from policies that manage production capacity and carbon emissions, which will enhance market stability and profitability [8] Group 4: Strategic Outlook - The company will continue its strategy of prioritizing profit while maintaining market share, focusing on cost reduction and operational efficiency [6] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to be under 400 million CNY, primarily for environmental upgrades and new technology projects [7] - The overall market environment for cement is expected to improve in 2025 due to supportive policies and reduced production capacity, leading to better profitability compared to the previous year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The cement industry in China is experiencing a slowdown in demand, but the decline is easing, with prices stabilizing and profitability improving in the first quarter of the year [1][2][3] Group 1: Production and Demand - In the first quarter, national cement production reached 331 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, which is a narrowing decline compared to earlier months [1] - March saw a single-month cement production of 158 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1] - The demand decline has significantly eased, supported by infrastructure investment, which has buffered some of the downward pressure on the market [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Pricing - The national cement inventory capacity ratio stood at 58%, down 7 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a reasonable inventory level [2] - The average market price for cement in the first quarter was 397 yuan per ton, marking a 9.3% increase year-on-year [2] - The Northeast region had the highest cement prices at 486 yuan per ton, up 119 yuan per ton from the previous year [2] Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - The cement industry is expected to turn from a loss in the previous year to a profit of 1.5 billion to 2 billion yuan in the first quarter, driven by improved operational quality and reduced costs [2] - Major companies like Conch Cement reported a net profit of 1.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 20% [2] - Looking ahead to the second quarter, demand is expected to rise, supported by continued infrastructure investment, while prices are likely to stabilize [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 5.45 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 630 million yuan, down 15.7% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 950 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 4.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 80 million yuan, up 447.6% year-on-year [1] - The sales volume of cement clinker in 2024 was 20.75 million tons, a decrease of 3.3%, which was better than the national average decline of 9.5% [2] - The average price per ton of cement clinker was 230 yuan, down 19 yuan year-on-year, with a gross profit per ton of 55 yuan, down 5 yuan [2] Group 2: Cost Management and Profitability - The company maintained a gross margin of 26.2% in 2024, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, but the gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 27.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous year [2][3] - The company has been actively reducing costs and increasing efficiency, leading to a significant decrease in fuel and other costs [2] Group 3: Balance Sheet and Future Planning - As of the end of 2024, the company had cash and financial assets totaling 2.67 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 45.1%, down 1.44 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The new five-year plan aims for production capacity increases in cement, clinker, and aggregates by 2029, with targets of 30 million, 20 million, and 40 million tons respectively [4] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 35% or 400 million yuan annually from 2024 to 2026, with a current dividend yield of 7.5% [4] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 740 million, 790 million, and 850 million yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 16.8% and 16.5% compared to previous estimates [5] - The target price for the company has been raised by 23% to 10.31 yuan, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.1 times for 2025 [5]

Summary of Conference Call on Cement Industry Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the cement industry, highlighting its challenges and future outlook [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Demand Decline**: The cement industry is expected to experience a continuous decline in demand over the next five to ten years, with a significant drop from 2.4 billion tons in 2021 to approximately 700 million tons, representing nearly a 25% decrease [2][3]. 2. **Historical Demand Trends**: From 2014 to 2021, the cement demand remained stable at around 2.4 billion tons, but began to decline in 2022 due to decreased real estate activity and infrastructure investment [2][3]. 3. **Long-term Demand Projection**: Long-term demand is projected to stabilize at around 1 to 1.2 billion tons, which is about half of the peak demand levels [3][4]. 4. **Capacity Utilization Issues**: Despite nominal capacity utilization rates being reported at over 60%, actual utilization may be as low as 53% by 2024, indicating significant overcapacity in the industry [4][5]. 5. **Need for Capacity Reduction**: The industry must undergo capacity reduction to achieve healthy development, as past attempts at supply-side reforms have not effectively reduced capacity [3][5]. 6. **Historical Context of Capacity Management**: The industry has seen attempts to manage capacity through policies like capacity replacement and peak-shaving production, but these have often resulted in nominal increases in capacity rather than reductions [6][7][9]. 7. **Regional Capacity Shifts**: There has been a trend of shifting excess capacity from regions with declining demand (e.g., Northeast China) to areas with higher demand (e.g., Guangxi, Hubei) [7][8]. 8. **Policy Challenges**: The effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing capacity has been undermined by industry responses that circumvent regulations, leading to a situation where actual capacity may not decrease as intended [9][10]. 9. **Profitability through Peak-Shaving**: The cement industry has managed to maintain profitability through peak-shaving production strategies, even at low capacity utilization rates, with prices increasing significantly during periods of limited supply [11][12]. 10. **Future Outlook**: The industry faces increasing cost pressures, particularly for smaller enterprises, necessitating further consolidation and capacity reduction to return to a state of supply-demand balance [13][14]. Other Important Insights - The cement industry has unique characteristics that allow for effective peak-shaving strategies, supported by government policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and pollution [11][12]. - The long-term sustainability of profitability through peak-shaving is questionable, as demand continues to decline, necessitating a more robust approach to capacity management [13][14].