（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 资金面看，建材ETF（159745）连续3日资金净流入超3.7亿元，资金积极布局，行业供需格局受关 注。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 中泰证券指出，水泥行业在"反内卷"大背景下易涨难跌。2025年行业通过产线置换实现历史首次实 质性去产能，2026~2027年含去30%产能预期，行业盈利能力有望大幅改善。随着南方地区气温回升、 局部工程项目春节前赶工，整体市场需求有所恢复。预计水泥需求将会明显减弱，后期价格多将以弱稳 运行为主。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品， ...

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 东莞证券指出，水泥行业严格落实按备案产能生产，2025年底前已完成超280条熟料生产线的产能置 换，退出产能达1.5亿吨/年。2026年1月1日起，骨干企业全面执行"按备案产能组织生产"，叠加常态化 错峰生产，区域"内卷式"竞争得到遏制。2025年房地产探底、基建增速下降导致水泥产量下滑，价格整 体低位震荡，但"水泥—煤炭"价差扩大改善盈利。2026年预计重大基建项目落地、城市更新等支撑需 求，"双碳"政策继续优化供给。盈利方面，预计2026年价格低位震荡、煤炭成本压力提升，盈利改善情 况需持续观察。 建材ETF（159745）跟踪的是建筑材料指数（931009），该指数主要覆盖建筑建材行业的上市公司，选 取涉及水泥、玻璃、陶瓷等制造领域的证券作为指数 ...

Group 1 - The second-hand housing market shows signs of recovery, with a week-on-week increase of 0.9% in transaction prices across 33 cities as of January 18, while month-on-month prices decreased by 1.8% [1] - In key 79 cities, second-hand housing transactions increased by 17.1% week-on-week and 46.5% year-on-year, with daily transactions in the first 17 days of January up by 29.2% year-on-year [1] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are being implemented, including a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% and an extension of tax refund policies for home exchanges [1] Group 2 - The construction materials sector is expected to see improved expectations due to the recovery in real estate and consumption, with a total transaction volume for new and second-hand homes projected to be supported at 1.2 to 1.3 billion square meters [1] - The cement industry has seen a reduction in production capacity by 150 million tons per year, with over 280 clinker production lines completed for capacity replacement, leading to improved profitability due to falling coal prices [1] - The industry is benefiting from a reduction in "involution" competition, with major companies adhering to production based on approved capacity and implementing staggered production practices [1] Group 3 - The Building Materials ETF (159745) includes listed companies in cement, glass, ceramics, and new building materials, reflecting the diversity and innovation within the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials ETF (159745) has seen a rise of over 2.8%, indicating potential improvements in the supply-demand dynamics of the cement industry [1] Industry Summary - The cement industry is strictly implementing production based on approved capacity, with over 280 clinker production lines expected to be replaced by the end of 2025, resulting in an annual capacity reduction of 150 million tons [1] - From January 1, 2026, major enterprises will fully execute production based on approved capacity, alongside regular staggered production, which is expected to curb "inward competition" within regions [1] - A decline in cement production is anticipated due to the real estate sector hitting a bottom and a slowdown in infrastructure growth in 2025, leading to overall low price fluctuations [1] - The widening price gap between cement and coal is expected to improve profitability [1] - Significant infrastructure projects and urban renewal are projected to support demand in 2026, with ongoing optimization of supply under the "dual carbon" policy [1] - Profitability is expected to improve, but the situation requires continuous observation due to anticipated low price fluctuations and rising coal cost pressures [1] Company Summary - The construction materials ETF (159745) tracks the building materials index (931009), which selects listed companies involved in the production, sales, and related services of cement, glass, ceramics, and new building materials from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - This index reflects the overall performance and development trends of listed companies in the building materials industry, balancing traditional and new building materials sectors, showcasing the diversity and innovation within the industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that by 2026, the focus should be on existing supply chains to identify opportunities for demand optimization and supply clearance in the construction materials sector [1] - The demand for construction materials is expected to undergo a qualitative change, with the current renovation demand accounting for approximately 50% and projected to reach nearly 70% after 2030 [1] - This shift is anticipated to drive industry demand back to historical highs, mirroring the demand patterns seen in the United States and Japan, while also optimizing the downstream demand structure, making the consumption characteristics of construction materials more pronounced [1] Group 2 - The construction materials ETF (159745) tracks the construction materials index (931009), which selects listed companies involved in the production and sales of materials such as cement, glass, and ceramics to reflect the overall performance of the construction materials industry [1] - The index exhibits strong cyclical characteristics, closely related to the real estate market and infrastructure investment [1]

Group 1 - The construction materials ETF (159745) showed a notable increase, closing at 0.646 with a rise of 1.55% on December 10 [2][3] - The trading volume for the ETF reached 578,000, with a turnover rate of 4.54% [2] - The net asset value of the ETF was reported at 0.6472, reflecting a decrease of 1.78% [2] Group 2 - Vanke's first bond extension meeting, "22 Vanke MTN004," was held to discuss the extension of the bond, which is crucial for the company's financial relief [3] - The meeting included three proposals, with two new additions that are expected to facilitate consensus among stakeholders [3] - CICC may participate again in Vanke's financial relief efforts, with plans submitted to Beijing for a comprehensive rescue scheme involving debt restructuring and asset sales [3]

Core Viewpoint - The cement sector is expected to turn profitable in Q3 2025 due to a decline in production costs and a slight recovery in prices, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate market and limited infrastructure support [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, infrastructure investment is projected to maintain growth, supporting demand for building materials [1] - The supply-demand imbalance in the cement industry is easing, although demand is still expected to decline due to the real estate sector not stabilizing and limited infrastructure activity [1] - The industry's awareness of "anti-involution" is increasing, and with a positive start, a slight recovery in average cement prices is anticipated, leading to some degree of profit recovery [1] Group 2: ETF and Index Information - The building materials ETF (159745) tracks the construction materials index (931009), which includes securities from companies involved in the manufacturing and sales of cement, glass, ceramics, and other building materials [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of publicly listed companies in the building materials sector and is significantly influenced by the real estate and infrastructure industries [1]

Core Insights - The cement industry is currently at a critical stage of policy implementation and governance improvement, with clear anti-involution policy directions and the cement association promoting the enforcement of technical standards to limit overproduction [1] - Domestic cement demand is weak, with the real fundamentals further deteriorating since October, while overseas markets are performing strongly, leading to significant year-on-year increases in gross profit per ton for companies like Huaxin Cement [1] - The industry is entering a peak season, with many companies attempting to raise prices; however, the pace of price increases is hindered by low capacity utilization rates [1] Industry Overview - The cement industry is experiencing cash flow abundance, and improving shareholder returns could present opportunities [1] - Long-term, supply-demand optimization (such as differentiated peak-shifting and capacity control) is expected to translate into profit recovery under the weak assumption of slowing demand decline, with coal price concessions and low inventory levels laying the foundation for profit improvement [1] Investment Insights - The Building Materials ETF (159745) tracks the construction materials index (931009), which selects listed companies involved in the production and sales of cement, glass, ceramics, and other building materials from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the building materials industry and is suitable for investors focusing on infrastructure and real estate market developments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities indicates that the State Council's emphasis on promoting consumption and stabilizing investment reflects ongoing positive policy factors, with short-term market focus on new technologies and themes such as perovskite and asset restructuring [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The market is currently showing high attention to new technologies and themes, particularly in the perovskite and asset restructuring sectors [1] - The energy storage industry chain is expected to benefit from price increases in new materials, with a notable reduction in inventory in the carbon fiber industry [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three main investment lines for 2026 are identified: companies benefiting from overseas expansion that are not yet fully priced in, real estate chain companies with cleared risks and potential turning points in revenue or profitability, and new material companies likely to benefit from high-end manufacturing replacements [1] Group 3: Industry Index - The Building Materials ETF (159745) tracks the Building Materials Index (931009), which selects listed companies involved in the manufacturing and sales of cement, glass, ceramics, and other building materials [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the building materials sector, which is closely related to the real estate and infrastructure industries, with a primary focus on traditional manufacturing [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.95%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.04%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.36% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.94 trillion, an increase of 6.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Concerns over the high valuation levels of technology growth stocks have led to a collective sell-off in this sector, which had previously shown strong performance [1][2] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, there may be continued downward pressure on the market, but the long-term bull market is not expected to end, and the current pullback may present a good opportunity for active allocation [1][6] - The market has been oscillating around the 3900-point mark, with multiple attempts to break through both upwards and downwards [1][2] Sector Performance - The technology sector has faced significant corrections, with the ChiNext Index's maximum drawdown approaching -12% and the Sci-Tech 50's drawdown exceeding -14% [7] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) and technology sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, reflecting market optimism regarding corporate profitability and valuation levels [9][10] Livestock Industry Insights - The livestock sector, particularly pig farming, is showing signs of recovery, with the price of pigs rising from below 14 yuan to around 21 yuan, marking an increase of nearly 50% [12] - The Ministry of Agriculture has initiated measures to control pig production, indicating a shift towards reducing supply, which is expected to support price increases in the future [12][14] - Major pig farming companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs have reported significant profit improvements, with net profits of 18.9 billion yuan and 9.2 billion yuan, respectively [12] Cost Control and Industry Dynamics - The pig farming industry has seen significant cost optimization, with leading companies reducing their costs to approximately 12-13 yuan per kilogram [17] - The industry is entering a phase of capacity reduction, with the number of breeding sows decreasing, which is expected to support future price increases [14][16] Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with London gold spot prices peaking at 4380 points, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [19] - The demand for gold as a "safe-haven" asset is expected to remain strong due to concerns over inflation and economic stagnation in the U.S. [20][21]