1月30日，有色60ETF（159881）回调超9%，连续5日迎资金净流入，有色行情具备支撑，把握回调布 局机会。 华创证券指出，降息预期和美联储独立性危机强化、地缘冲突下避险升温以及美债或遭抛售等因素，持 续催化贵金属行情。央行购金需求持续对金价形成强支撑，中国央行已连续14个月增持黄金。黄金的避 险需求和投资需求或长期持续，价格或长期上行。白银易受库存挤兑危机与金融政策转向等影响，工业 属性和金融属性共振下，白银价格更具弹性。该机构持续看好电解铝红利属性，预计行业平均利润维持 高位，由于行业未来资本开支强度较低，上市公司普遍具备提高回馈股东的能力和意愿，红利资产属性 逐步凸显。铝短期进入消费淡季，但长期基本面和宏观叙事大逻辑暂未改变，对铝价支撑强。未来几年 供给刚性明显，电力扰动存量项目减产预期持续强化，增量项目释放缓慢；同时市场铝代铜、储能新需 求领域层出；铜铝比历史高位带来铝强大补涨潜力。全球铝库存总体维持低位，铝价支撑强。 有色60ETF（159881）跟踪的是中证有色金属指数（930708），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及有色金属 采选、冶炼与加工等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖铜、铝、黄金、锂 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that non-ferrous metal stocks have declined significantly, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, China Aluminum, Shandong Gold, Yun Aluminum, and Zhongjin Gold hitting their daily limit down [1] - Affected by the market trend, many non-ferrous related ETFs also experienced limit down [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate that not only precious metals like gold and silver have seen significant increases, but industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as energy metals like cobalt and lithium, have also performed well, with multiple metals reaching historical or phase highs [2] - The reasons for the super cycle in non-ferrous metals are primarily threefold: first, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has led to a weakening dollar, which supports the rise in non-ferrous metal prices denominated in dollars; second, there is a supply-demand gap, with industrial metals like copper facing supply pressures due to declining ore grades, rising marginal costs, and previous reductions in mining capital expenditures, while demand is driven by AI, new energy, and infrastructure construction; third, domestic "anti-involution" policies are optimizing excess capacity, which helps promote supply-demand balance [2]

1月28日，有色60ETF（159881）收涨超7%，金属价格上行与供需格局变化利好。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 东兴证券指出，金属行业已进入弱供给周期，全球矿业供给在2028年前或延续强刚性化特征。从需 求端观察，绿色低碳能源转型、新质生产力发展及算力资本周期的来临或将提振多金属品种需求曲线右 移。流动性周期的切换有助于金属价格的弹性释放，全球央行资产负债表的再扩张或推动本就供需状态 紧平衡的小金属品种获得流动性溢价。具体来看，稀土行业供需结构持续优化，供给端受政策管控增速 放缓，需求端受新能源汽车、机器人等推动持续增长，行业迎来价值重估。锂行业供需关系或持续改 善，供应过剩状况预计持续减缓。锑行业因供需错配进入强景气周期，全球锑供需缺口或持续放大。 镁、钼等品种的供需亦呈现紧平衡状态，有望推动价格中枢上行及行业盈利修复。 有色60ETF（159 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong fluctuation today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to 4151.24 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%. However, the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index fell by 0.57% and 0.47% respectively. The total market turnover reached 2.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The gold sector led the market, with significant gains in cyclical products such as non-ferrous metals, coal, oil, and chemicals. Conversely, sectors like machinery, photovoltaics, and pharmaceuticals experienced some pullbacks. Overall, the market sentiment was neutral to weak, with over 3600 stocks declining [1] - The gold price surged past the $5200 per ounce mark, driving up gold stocks and the non-ferrous metal sector. The Gold Stock ETF (517400) rose by 10.00%, the Mining ETF (561330) increased by 7.38%, and the Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881) gained 7.37%. The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to its safe-haven appeal and a renewed "sell America" trading logic, alongside geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts [1] Commodity Market Dynamics - The Coal ETF (515220) rose by 4.75%, supported by soaring gold and silver prices, a bullish atmosphere in the non-ferrous sector, and ongoing price increases in chemicals. The rise in oil and natural gas prices has also led to expectations of higher coal prices. From a fundamental perspective, there is potential for reduced supply, and winter demand for electricity and heating is improving, leading to a gradual depletion of accumulated coal inventories [2] - The Oil ETF (561360) increased by 4.42%, influenced by heightened geopolitical uncertainties and a significant reduction in U.S. crude oil production due to extreme weather conditions, which saw a drop of 2 million barrels per day. This disruption in supply is expected to have a notable impact on short-term supply and demand dynamics [2] Debt Market Insights - The bond market has seen a continued rebound, with the 10-Year Treasury ETF (511260) rising by 0.47% over the past 10 days. The outlook remains for narrow fluctuations due to the K-shaped economic recovery, where old growth drivers are weakening while new ones are emerging. This situation complicates the assessment of the macroeconomic state [3] - The traditional economy's downturn may further support the bond market, as the profitability of long-term bonds has decreased, leading to significant outflows from trading positions. The remaining allocation is likely to focus more on economic realities. The current monetary policy stance is neutral, providing strong guidance for maintaining a reasonable range in the bond market [3]

特朗普昨日表示，不担心美元贬值可以让其像悠悠球一样涨跌。美元指数DXY在特朗普评论时先小幅拉升，随后大幅下跌超50点，创下2022年2月以来的新 低，非美货币趁势拉高，黄金价格走强。另外，28日消息，泰国央行行长宣布黄金交易禁止做空操作。 | 序号 类型 代码 | | 涨跌幅 ▼ 5日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 主 517400 黄金股票ETF | 10.00% | 19.82% | | 2 主 561330 矿业ETF | 7.38% | 15.11% | | 3 主 159881 有色60ETF | 7.37% | 13.99% | 数据来源：Wind，截至2026/1/28 收盘 现货黄金价格加速上冲站上5200美元/盎司整数关口，黄金股票、有色金属板块大涨。截至今日（1月28日）收盘，黄金股票ETF（517400）10cm涨停，矿业 ETF（561330）涨幅7.38%，有色60ETF（159881）涨幅7.37%。 【上涨原因分析】金银继续狂飙 今日，国际现货黄金延续大涨势头，盘中首次突破5200美元，日内涨幅扩大超1%。 近期黄金价格的上涨不仅源于其避险属性，也受益 ...

| 序号 类型 代码 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 现价 | 涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 主 517400 黄金股票ETF | 6.95% | 37.07% 2.215 0.144 | | 5 | | 2 主 561330 矿业ETF | 5.37% | 27.46% 2.451 | 0.125 | 5 | | 3 主 159881 有色60ETF | 4.27% | 24.80% 2.320 | 0.095 | 1 | 数据来源：Wind，截至2026/1/26 下午14:15 现货黄金价格首次突破5100美元/盎司整数关口，黄金、有色金属板块大涨。黄金股票ETF盘中涨幅最高触及9.03%，矿业ETF盘中涨幅最高触及6.45%。 【上涨原因分析】 年初以来黄金股票的估值修复已经开始，但考虑到金价持续上涨，板块或仍处于相对低估水平。金价稳步上行也有利于黄金股票的估值修复，黄金股票ETF 或更具弹性。截至2026/1/23，黄金股票ETF（517400）年初至今涨幅28.16%，位居ETF年内涨幅榜前列。可以持续关注，逢低布局。（数据来源：Wind ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant gains, with major stocks like Zhongjin Gold rising over 9%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Shandong Gold increasing by more than 7% [1] - Non-ferrous and mining-related ETFs have also seen an approximate increase of 5% due to market influences [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate that not only precious metals like gold and silver have risen significantly, but also industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as energy metals like cobalt and lithium, have shown good growth, with multiple metals reaching historical or near-historical highs [2] - The super cycle in non-ferrous metals is attributed to three main factors: the weakening trend of the dollar due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, supply-demand gaps caused by declining ore grades and rising marginal costs in major mines, and domestic policies aimed at optimizing excess capacity [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that industrial metals are entering a strategic allocation phase, particularly with copper prices approaching the 100,000 yuan mark, indicating a favorable time for investment in this sector [1] - Zinc is highlighted as a fundamental material for "de-globalization," with declining smelting fees indicating ongoing supply tightness, driven by re-industrialization demands in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1] - The demand for galvanized steel is expected to grow both domestically and internationally, supporting the zinc market [1] Group 2 - The copper sector is anticipated to maintain an upward trend despite short-term price fluctuations, supported by a tight supply situation [1] - Expectations of large copper mines resuming production may improve copper smelting fees, enhancing profit margins for copper smelting companies [1] - In the aluminum sector, global supply chain security demands have strengthened post-geopolitical events, giving China's electrolytic aluminum industry a competitive edge due to improved resource supply capabilities [1] Group 3 - The 60ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (930708), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in nonferrous metal mining, smelting, and processing [2] - The index comprises companies with large average market capitalizations and covers various sub-sectors, including copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, indicating a balanced overall structure [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the aluminum market is supported by multiple factors, including rigid supply constraints and new demand in energy storage [1] - The aluminum price is expected to maintain strong support due to low global inventory levels and a historical high copper-aluminum ratio, indicating potential for aluminum price increases [1] - The investment in fixed assets by the State Grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, providing long-term support for aluminum usage in power grids [1] Group 2 - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) has risen over 2%, reflecting the positive sentiment in the metal prices driven by the aforementioned factors [1] - The index tracked by the Nonferrous 60 ETF includes companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals, covering key sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - The average profit in the aluminum industry is expected to rise to around 8,000 yuan per ton, with future profits likely to remain high due to low capital expenditure intensity in the industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that resource commodities continue to face opportunities, with strategic value enhancement due to factors such as global liquidity boosting prices and increasing demand from technology sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing [1] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, geopolitical disturbances are elevating the strategic importance of key minerals, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of commodity prices [1] - For precious metals, factors like monetary easing, expanding credit cracks in the US dollar, and ongoing high debt levels are contributing to a situation where gold prices are likely to rise but face challenges in declining [1] Group 2 - The Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - The constituent stocks of the index have a large average market capitalization, providing good liquidity and representativeness, with a balanced industry distribution [1]