Group 1 - The supply of industrial metals remains tight, with the Cathay Nonferrous Metals ETF (159881) rising over 3% on February 11 [1] - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream processing enterprises are starting to take holidays, leading to a decline in operating rates and weakening demand, while copper and aluminum prices remain stable [1] - In the copper market, prices initially fell, which stimulated an increase in the operating rate of wire and cable production, but overall copper inventories are increasing [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand fundamentals indicate a short-term easing within a tight balance, but the long-term supply from mines remains constrained [1] - After a significant price correction, the spot market has shown a structural recovery characterized by "price drop and volume increase," with downstream enterprises showing a stronger willingness to replenish inventory [1] - The Cathay Nonferrous Metals ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (930708), which includes listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals, covering various sectors such as copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare metals [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 有色金属ETF国泰（159881）跟踪的是中证有色金属指数（930708），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及有 色金属采选、冶炼与加工等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属行业相关上市公司证券 的整体表现。 西部证券指出，工业金属方面，宏观情绪影响正减弱，铜铝等工业金属正重回基本面阶段。供给端，中 国有色金属工业协会表示将扎实推进铜冶炼产能治理工作，目前国内已叫停了200多万吨铜冶炼项目， 铜冶炼产能过快增长的势头已得到有效抑制。未来，行业协会将继续配合国家有关部门严格管控新增矿 铜冶炼项目，从源头上改善外采比逐年提升的现状。同时，将完善铜资源储备体系建设，一方面扩大国 家铜战略储备规模，另一方面探索进行商业储备机制。此外，美国启动了一项总额达120亿美元的战略 关键矿产储备计划，旨在通过建立商业库存机制保护制造商免受供应链冲击，预计将涵盖多种关键矿产 以对冲风险。 ...

有色金属ETF国泰（159881）跟踪的是中证有色金属指数（930708），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及有 色金属采选、冶炼与加工等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属行业相关上市公司证券 的整体表现。指数成分股平均市值较大，具有较好的流动性，其行业分布覆盖铜、黄金、铝、稀土及锂 等多个细分领域，整体结构较为均衡。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国元证券指出，全球局势动荡背景下，有色金属行业景气度持续。供给端约束显著：铜矿开采难度加 大，上游矿区事故频发，导致供给持续趋紧，支撑其价格进入长期上行通道；同时，各国对战略金属的 管控收紧，进一步加剧其价格上行压力。需求前景明朗：人工智能、电动汽车、可再生能源等新兴产业 的快速发展，对上游材料性能、纯度等提出了前所未有的严苛标准，使得一大批金属进阶为"关键战略 材料"，其需求并非简单增量，而是引发了质的改变，具备明确的长期支撑。综合来看，有色金属行业 在供给约束与新兴需求变化的共同驱动下，多种金属价值面临重塑。 2月6日，有色金属ETF国泰（159881）盘中涨超0.8%，全球局势动荡背景下，有色金属行业景气度持 续。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 招商证券指出，从降息预期来看，据CME FedWatch数据，新人选公布前后，市场对年内首次降息时点 的预期均稳定在6月，全年降息两次的判断亦未改变；从缩表预期来看，本周FOMC会议延续了自去年 12月以来的扩表操作，规模维持在每月400亿美元，市场对"缩表"的预期可能过于超前，短期现实仍是 联储扩表。此外，沃什的政策倾向主要源于其历史表态，但作为特朗普认可的人选，其立场是否会因政 治考量而调整仍存不确定性。本轮回调的催化因素尚未对短期基本面形成实质冲击，黄金或存在超跌反 弹机会 有色金属ETF国泰（159881）跟踪的是中证有色金属指数（930708），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及有 色金属采选、冶炼与加工等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属相关上市公司证券的整 体表现，行业分布结构较为均衡。 ...

1月30日，有色60ETF（159881）回调超9%，连续5日迎资金净流入，有色行情具备支撑，把握回调布 局机会。 华创证券指出，降息预期和美联储独立性危机强化、地缘冲突下避险升温以及美债或遭抛售等因素，持 续催化贵金属行情。央行购金需求持续对金价形成强支撑，中国央行已连续14个月增持黄金。黄金的避 险需求和投资需求或长期持续，价格或长期上行。白银易受库存挤兑危机与金融政策转向等影响，工业 属性和金融属性共振下，白银价格更具弹性。该机构持续看好电解铝红利属性，预计行业平均利润维持 高位，由于行业未来资本开支强度较低，上市公司普遍具备提高回馈股东的能力和意愿，红利资产属性 逐步凸显。铝短期进入消费淡季，但长期基本面和宏观叙事大逻辑暂未改变，对铝价支撑强。未来几年 供给刚性明显，电力扰动存量项目减产预期持续强化，增量项目释放缓慢；同时市场铝代铜、储能新需 求领域层出；铜铝比历史高位带来铝强大补涨潜力。全球铝库存总体维持低位，铝价支撑强。 有色60ETF（159881）跟踪的是中证有色金属指数（930708），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及有色金属 采选、冶炼与加工等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖铜、铝、黄金、锂 ...

1月28日，有色60ETF（159881）收涨超7%，金属价格上行与供需格局变化利好。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 东兴证券指出，金属行业已进入弱供给周期，全球矿业供给在2028年前或延续强刚性化特征。从需 求端观察，绿色低碳能源转型、新质生产力发展及算力资本周期的来临或将提振多金属品种需求曲线右 移。流动性周期的切换有助于金属价格的弹性释放，全球央行资产负债表的再扩张或推动本就供需状态 紧平衡的小金属品种获得流动性溢价。具体来看，稀土行业供需结构持续优化，供给端受政策管控增速 放缓，需求端受新能源汽车、机器人等推动持续增长，行业迎来价值重估。锂行业供需关系或持续改 善，供应过剩状况预计持续减缓。锑行业因供需错配进入强景气周期，全球锑供需缺口或持续放大。 镁、钼等品种的供需亦呈现紧平衡状态，有望推动价格中枢上行及行业盈利修复。 有色60ETF（159 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 有色60ETF（159881）跟踪的是中证有色金属指数（930708），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及有色金属 采选、冶炼与加工等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，广泛覆盖行业各领域。指数成分股平均市值较 大，行业分布涵盖多种关键金属品种，整体呈现周期性与成长性结合的特点，以反映有色金属相关上市 公司证券的整体表现。 华创证券指出，降息预期和美联储独立性危机强化、地缘冲突下避险升温以及美债或遭抛售等因素，持 续催化贵金属行情。央行购金需求持续对金价形成强支撑，部分机构与央行层面的多重利好持续催化。 黄金的避险需求和投资需求或长期持续，价格或长期上行。白银工业属性和金融属性共振，价格更具弹 性。该机构持续看好电解铝红利属性，预计行业平均利润维持高位，由于行业未来资本开支强度较低， 红利资产属性逐步凸显。铝短期进入消费淡季，但长期基本面和宏观叙事大逻辑暂未改变，对铝价支撑 强。未来几年供给刚性明显，且铜铝比处于历史高位带来铝强大补涨潜力。全球铝库存总体维持低位， 铝价支撑强。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that industrial metals are entering a strategic allocation phase, particularly with copper prices approaching the 100,000 yuan mark, indicating a favorable time for investment in this sector [1] - Zinc is highlighted as a fundamental material for "de-globalization," with declining smelting fees indicating ongoing supply tightness, driven by re-industrialization demands in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1] - The demand for galvanized steel is expected to grow both domestically and internationally, supporting the zinc market [1] Group 2 - The copper sector is anticipated to maintain an upward trend despite short-term price fluctuations, supported by a tight supply situation [1] - Expectations of large copper mines resuming production may improve copper smelting fees, enhancing profit margins for copper smelting companies [1] - In the aluminum sector, global supply chain security demands have strengthened post-geopolitical events, giving China's electrolytic aluminum industry a competitive edge due to improved resource supply capabilities [1] Group 3 - The 60ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (930708), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in nonferrous metal mining, smelting, and processing [2] - The index comprises companies with large average market capitalizations and covers various sub-sectors, including copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, indicating a balanced overall structure [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the aluminum market is supported by multiple factors, including rigid supply constraints and new demand in energy storage [1] - The aluminum price is expected to maintain strong support due to low global inventory levels and a historical high copper-aluminum ratio, indicating potential for aluminum price increases [1] - The investment in fixed assets by the State Grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, providing long-term support for aluminum usage in power grids [1] Group 2 - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) has risen over 2%, reflecting the positive sentiment in the metal prices driven by the aforementioned factors [1] - The index tracked by the Nonferrous 60 ETF includes companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals, covering key sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - The average profit in the aluminum industry is expected to rise to around 8,000 yuan per ton, with future profits likely to remain high due to low capital expenditure intensity in the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is expected to experience strong support due to rigid supply constraints, emerging new demand in energy storage, and the historical high copper-aluminum ratio indicating significant potential for aluminum price increases [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of aluminum is expected to remain rigid in the coming years, with ongoing expectations of production cuts due to power disruptions in existing projects and slow release of new projects [1] - New demand fields for aluminum, such as aluminum substitutes for copper and energy storage, are emerging [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Conditions - Despite high aluminum prices leading to inventory accumulation domestically, the LME region is maintaining a destocking trend due to price differentials between domestic and international markets, keeping global aluminum inventories low and supporting prices [1] - The historical high copper-aluminum ratio continues to provide room for aluminum price increases [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The State Grid's fixed asset investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, providing long-term support for aluminum usage in power grids [1] - The outlook for electrolytic aluminum profits is positive, with expectations for sustained high profitability in the future [1] Group 4: ETF Information - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (930708), which includes listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals, covering major sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1]