2026.02. 10 本文字数：1773，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 日本众议院选举落幕，高市早苗所在的自民党获得316个议席，日本维新会获得36个议席。在野党 方面，由立宪民主党和公明党共同组建的新党"中道改革联合"获得49个议席，国民民主党获得28个 议席，参政党获得15个议席，新兴政党"未来团队"获得11个议席，日本共产党获得4个议席。自民 党单独获得了超过三分之二议席，在战后日本尚属首次。 上海日本学会会长、上海对外经贸大学日本经济研究中心主任陈子雷对第一财经记者表示，当前自民 党内矛盾众多，群龙无首，党内大佬麻生太郎想要"垂帘听政"，在混乱的局势中，高市虽说通过选 举夺回了党内主导权，"这样的局面会让人担心，今后的自民党会变得更加咄咄逼人"。 高市的考验才刚刚开始 陈子雷说，其实纵观高市此次的竞选政策，可谓"相当粗糙，且经不起推敲"。他举例道，高市要力 推"积极的财政政策"，但在饱受日本媒体的质疑与批评之后，又改成"负责任的积极财政政策"，"是 不是负责任，并不是高市自己所能定义的，而是需要依赖日本国债等数据来决定。" 高市主张的"负责任的积极财政政策"，即通过扩大赤字、抑制加 ...

高市的考验才刚刚开始 "随着选举热度逐渐褪去，高市经济政策的弊端、她与'统一教会'的来往、自民党悬而未决的'黑金丑 闻'等问题都会被'秋后算账'。"陈子雷分析道。 日本众议院选举落幕，高市早苗所在的自民党获得316个议席，日本维新会获得36个议席。在野党方 面，由立宪民主党和公明党共同组建的新党"中道改革联合"获得49个议席，国民民主党获得28个议席， 参政党获得15个议席，新兴政党"未来团队"获得11个议席，日本共产党获得4个议席。自民党单独获得 了超过三分之二议席，在战后日本尚属首次。 上海日本学会会长、上海对外经贸大学日本经济研究中心主任陈子雷对第一财经记者表示，当前自民党 内矛盾众多，群龙无首，党内大佬麻生太郎想要"垂帘听政"，在混乱的局势中，高市虽说通过选举夺回 了党内主导权，"这样的局面会让人担心，今后的自民党会变得更加咄咄逼人"。 提高警惕 据报道，高市9日于东京举行记者会时表示："基于此前的论点梳理与讨论积累，我将坚持不懈全力推动 尽快营造出就修宪举行全民投票的环境。" 此前，高市已不断放出风声，表示将推动对"无核三原则"及"安保三文件"的修订讨论。"无核三原则"长 期以来被视为日本政府关于核 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the Japanese consumer sector, with essential goods remaining resilient while discretionary spending shows signs of weakness [1]. Core Insights - The Japanese consumer sector in December exhibited three main characteristics: essential goods maintained resilience, discretionary spending weakened, and industry consolidation accelerated [3][15]. - Consumer confidence index in December recorded 36.2, slightly down from 36.4 in November, indicating a marginal decline in household consumption willingness [2][9]. - The core CPI in December rose by 2.4% year-on-year, showing a significant drop from November, while the CCCPI increased by 2.9%, indicating persistent high inflation levels [2][11]. Summary by Sections Macro - Inflation is slowing down, and the yen has appreciated significantly. The consumer confidence index in December was 36.2, slightly lower than November's 36.4 and below market expectations [2][9]. - The willingness to purchase durable goods decreased significantly, reflecting a marginal weakening in household consumption tendencies [9]. - Actual wages in November contracted by 2.8% year-on-year, marking an ongoing negative growth trend for 11 consecutive months [9][11]. Industry - The consumer sector is experiencing a general slowdown in growth rates across sub-industries, with duty-free consumption continuing to weaken. Essential goods like food and daily necessities show stable demand, while discretionary items like clothing and home goods are under pressure [3][15]. - External disturbances have notably impacted retail growth, with a warm winter suppressing demand for winter goods and a reduction in holiday shopping days negatively affecting retail sales growth by approximately 2 percentage points [3][15]. - The industry is witnessing an accelerated pace of consolidation, with significant mergers and acquisitions, such as the full acquisition of Welcia by Katsuya and subsequent TOB completion by Aeon [3][15]. Essential Companies - In December, same-store sales for Aeon decreased by 0.3%, while PPIH and 711 Japan reported increases of 3.0% and 1.9%, respectively [4][18]. - The drugstore sector saw Matsukiyo Cocokara's same-store sales decline by 4.6%, while Katsuya's increased by 0.3% [21][19]. - The beverage sector reported a 6% increase in sales for Suntory, while Asahi's sales dropped by 22% [4][22]. Discretionary Companies - In December, same-store sales for major restaurant chains like Saizeriya and Skylark increased by 18.7% and 11.0%, respectively, while clothing retailers like Uniqlo and ABC-MART saw declines of 6.6% and 0.4% [5][35]. - The overall sales for department stores in Japan fell by 1.1% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth in five years, primarily due to a warm winter and a significant drop in duty-free sales [40][41]. - The hotel sector reported a 5.1% increase in revenue, with a 86% occupancy rate, reflecting a recovery in tourism [43][44].

Group 1 - The central economic work conference proposed to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, maintaining necessary expenditure intensity and a deficit scale close to 6 trillion yuan [1][2] - The expected scale of new special bonds in 2026 is projected to reach 5 trillion yuan, with an emphasis on optimizing the government bond tool mix and enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payments [2][4] - Analysts suggest that the fiscal situation in 2026 will likely remain under pressure, but the role of fiscal policy as a foundation for national governance necessitates continued proactive measures to stimulate demand and support consumption [2][3] Group 2 - The expected deficit rate for 2026 is projected to be no less than 4%, with the total new debt scale anticipated to increase to 15 trillion yuan [4][5] - The increase in new special bonds is expected to support infrastructure investment and address local government financial difficulties, with a potential rise in the issuance of long-term special bonds [5][6] - The central government is likely to increase transfer payments to local governments, exceeding 10 trillion yuan, to alleviate fiscal challenges and stimulate local economic development [2][3] Group 3 - The conference emphasized the importance of addressing local fiscal difficulties and improving the local tax system, with potential reforms in consumption tax expected to accelerate in 2026 [7] - Analysts foresee three main directions for fiscal reform in 2026: shifting consumption tax collection to local levels, optimizing the sharing ratio of shared taxes, and merging various local additional taxes into a single local additional tax [7][8] - The proposed reforms aim to incentivize local governments to cultivate tax sources and improve the consumption environment, thereby enhancing the overall supply-demand relationship [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes "expanding domestic demand" as a strategic initiative comparable to previous concepts like "housing for living" and "self-reliance in technology," highlighting its significance for macroeconomic direction and individual financial security [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Context - The article identifies the limitations of current consumption-boosting measures, which often lead to temporary demand release rather than sustainable growth. It notes that the total retail sales of consumer goods reached a historical low in November 2025, indicating a "stimulus fatigue" in consumption [2]. - It argues that the core issue is not a lack of desire to consume but rather constraints related to income and concerns about future expenses, such as healthcare and retirement [2]. Domestic Demand Strategy - The concept of "expanding domestic demand" is presented as a comprehensive approach that includes consumption, investment, and financial needs, forming a "demand triangle" rather than merely focusing on spending [2][4]. - The article asserts that a strong domestic demand is essential for economic stability, especially in light of global uncertainties that can impact export-driven economies [4]. Policy Recommendations - The article proposes two main solutions: ensuring "income-supported consumption" and promoting "investment with reasonable returns" [5]. - For income-supported consumption, it emphasizes the importance of stable employment and improved social security systems to alleviate concerns that hinder consumer spending [6]. - It suggests that income distribution reform is crucial for expanding the middle-income group, which would enhance stable consumption power [6]. Investment Focus - The article highlights the need for investment strategies that prioritize efficiency and returns, advocating for a shift from traditional infrastructure investments to high-tech and human capital investments [8]. - It calls for local government reforms in consumption tax to align fiscal incentives with consumer activity, thereby encouraging a shift from manufacturing to enhancing public services [8]. Broader Implications - The article clarifies that expanding domestic demand is not about encouraging luxury consumption for the wealthy but about ensuring that the majority have stable incomes and security in education, healthcare, and retirement [9]. - It posits that this strategy complements technological advancements by stabilizing employment and income distribution, creating a cycle of economic growth that benefits the general population [11].

Core Insights - The central government has emphasized the need to address local fiscal difficulties for the first time in history during the recent Central Economic Work Conference, highlighting the importance of ensuring basic public services and financial stability at the grassroots level [2][3]. Group 1: Local Fiscal Challenges - Local fiscal expenditures have consistently exceeded revenues, necessitating reliance on central government transfers and debt to cover deficits. In the first ten months of this year, local public budget revenues were approximately 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while expenditures reached about 19.1 trillion yuan, up 1.2% [3]. - The decline in real estate market revenues has significantly impacted local government finances, with land transfer income expected to drop to about 4.8 trillion yuan in 2024, a decrease of approximately 45% from the peak of 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 [3][4]. - Many local governments are facing severe fiscal pressures, with some even experiencing wage arrears due to insufficient funds to maintain basic operations and services [4]. Group 2: Policy Responses and Reforms - The central government is pushing for reforms to improve the local tax system, including the gradual transfer of certain consumption tax revenues to local governments, which could increase local fiscal autonomy [6][7]. - The government aims to enhance the matching of fiscal rights and responsibilities at the local level, with nearly 50% of county-level governments having a fiscal self-sufficiency rate below 30% [5]. - Experts suggest that increasing central transfer payments and raising local debt limits are essential to address the fiscal shortfalls caused by the real estate downturn, thereby restoring local governments' capacity to stimulate economic growth [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The anticipated increase in the total scale of new government debt for next year is expected to be around 15 trillion yuan, higher than this year's approximately 13 trillion yuan, to support local fiscal needs [10]. - Local governments are also encouraged to optimize their fiscal structures by enhancing the management of existing assets and reducing unnecessary expenditures to improve the efficiency of fiscal fund usage [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The central government has emphasized the need to address local fiscal difficulties, marking a significant shift in focus during the recent Central Economic Work Conference, which aims to ensure the basic financial security of local governments and improve the local tax system [3][5][10]. Group 1: Local Fiscal Challenges - Local fiscal expenditures generally exceed revenues, necessitating reliance on central government transfers and debt to cover deficits. In the first ten months of this year, local public budget revenues were approximately 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while expenditures reached about 19.1 trillion yuan, up 1.2% [5][6]. - The decline in real estate-related tax revenues and land sales has significantly impacted local government finances, with land sale revenues dropping from a peak of 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to about 4.8 trillion yuan in 2024, a decrease of approximately 45% [5][6]. - Local governments are facing increasing pressure to maintain basic public services, with some regions experiencing salary delays due to insufficient fiscal resources [6][7]. Group 2: Tax System Reforms - The central government plans to enhance the local tax system, focusing on three key areas: shifting the consumption tax collection to local levels, improving the value-added tax refund policies, and consolidating local additional taxes [11][12]. - The government aims to increase local fiscal autonomy by allowing local authorities to set specific tax rates within certain limits, thereby enhancing their revenue-generating capabilities [11][12]. - The proposed reforms include optimizing the sharing ratio of shared taxes, which could potentially increase local governments' share of revenue from major tax categories like value-added tax and corporate income tax [12]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - Experts suggest that to alleviate local fiscal pressures, the central government should increase transfer payments and raise local debt limits, thereby restoring local governments' capacity to stimulate economic growth [14][15]. - There is a call for the central government to gradually assume responsibilities for social security, public safety, and infrastructure projects to reduce the fiscal burden on local governments [15]. - Local governments are encouraged to enhance revenue through asset management and tax collection while optimizing expenditure structures to improve the efficiency of fiscal resource utilization [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The central government has placed significant emphasis on addressing local fiscal difficulties, marking the first time this issue has been highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference since 2000. The focus is on ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level and improving the local tax system [1][5]. Group 1: Local Fiscal Challenges - Local fiscal expenditures generally exceed revenues, necessitating reliance on central government transfers and debt to cover deficits. In the first ten months of this year, local public budget revenues were approximately 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while expenditures reached about 19.1 trillion yuan, up 1.2% [2]. - The decline in real estate market revenues has significantly impacted local government finances, with land transfer income expected to be around 4.8 trillion yuan in 2024, a decrease of about 45% from the peak of 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 [2][3]. - The mismatch between fiscal rights and responsibilities remains a critical issue, with nearly 50% of county-level finances having a self-sufficiency rate below 30%. Even with central transfers, the coverage of expenditures is only 86% [4]. Group 2: Policy Responses and Reforms - The Central Economic Work Conference has called for the improvement of the local tax system, which includes three key areas: shifting the consumption tax collection to local levels, refining the VAT refund policy, and merging certain local taxes into a single local surcharge [7][8]. - The government aims to increase local fiscal autonomy by adjusting the sharing ratio of shared taxes, which include VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax, to enhance local revenue [8]. - Experts suggest that to address the fiscal shortfall caused by the real estate downturn, the central government should increase transfer payments or raise local debt limits, thereby restoring local governments' capacity to stimulate economic growth [9][12]. Group 3: Immediate and Long-term Solutions - Immediate liquidity injection is deemed essential to alleviate current fiscal pressures, while long-term solutions involve systemic reforms to the local tax structure [8][9]. - Local governments are encouraged to optimize their fiscal spending by enhancing the efficiency of fund usage and reducing unnecessary expenditures through zero-based budgeting reforms [11]. - The central government is also considering shifting certain responsibilities, such as social security and public safety, to reduce the fiscal burden on local governments [12].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumer spending as a key macroeconomic policy direction for 2026 and beyond, with specific policy spaces identified for short, medium, and long-term strategies [1][4][5] - Short-term policy measures include extending and expanding direct subsidies, consumer loan interest subsidies, and implementing paid staggered vacations to enhance consumer experience and demand [1][2][3] - Medium-term strategies focus on accelerating consumption tax reform, upgrading consumption infrastructure, leveraging new technologies for product and scene development, and promoting employment-friendly development [4][5] - Long-term perspectives involve improving income distribution systems, enhancing social security, and optimizing consumption through population growth and international demand activation [5][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of the anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts on global markets, leading to a risk-on sentiment and a recovery in stock prices, particularly in technology and materials sectors [6][7][8] - Despite a mixed U.S. economic data landscape, market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [7][15] - The article highlights the performance of various asset classes, noting a significant rise in copper prices and a stable demand for gold, while U.S. Treasury yields have shown volatility [9][10][12] Group 3 - The article outlines recent policy changes in housing provident fund regulations aimed at supporting housing consumption, including increased withdrawal limits and expanded usage scenarios [27][28][29] - It notes that various regions are implementing measures to optimize housing fund policies, aligning them with population policies and enhancing support for high-quality housing [27][28][29] - The article also mentions the broader context of economic recovery efforts, including the promotion of durable goods consumption and the integration of artificial intelligence in consumer sectors [35][36]

Group 1 - The potential for national income doubling is expected to open a "golden decade" for new consumption development, with a theoretical target of nearly doubling per capita GDP by 2035, from $13,300 in 2024 to approximately $20,000 [16][17][33] - The growth of the middle-income group is crucial for driving consumption, with a target of over 800 million middle-income individuals in the next 15 years, which will significantly influence the scale and quality of domestic consumption [42][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting common prosperity to activate domestic consumption potential, highlighting that increasing the income of low-income groups can effectively convert new income into consumption [20][23][49] Group 2 - The beauty and personal care sector is expected to see growth driven by new materials in the medical beauty segment, with companies like Lepu Medical focusing on innovative materials that fill market gaps [4][5][15] - The beauty industry is entering a low-growth phase, where brand group operations and market share enhancement will be critical for sustainable growth, with companies like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei Holdings being highlighted for their potential [4][5][15] - The pet care market is experiencing both consumption upgrades and intensified competition, with a focus on high-end, health-oriented products [4][5][15] Group 3 - The service consumption sector, particularly tourism and sports, is expected to benefit from policy encouragement, with companies like Sanxia Tourism and Lansi Co. being recommended for investment [4][5][15] - The report notes that the tourism sector is poised for growth due to increased interest in flexible vacations and the aging population, which is expected to drive demand for river cruises [4][5][15] - The sports service sector is highlighted as a core growth area, with event-driven economic activities expected to boost related industries [4][5][15] Group 4 - The IP and trendy toy market is entering a new phase with a surge in supply, and companies like Pop Mart are expected to maintain their leading positions through effective IP management [4][5][15] - The report indicates that the emergence of new designers and retail platforms is likely to sustain high demand for IP products, with a focus on companies that can effectively monetize potential IP [4][5][15] Group 5 - The gold and jewelry sector is facing short-term demand pressure due to tax reforms and seasonal fluctuations, with a focus on brands that can maintain pricing power amid these changes [5][15]