在基层财政收支矛盾不断加大之下，增加地方自主财力正成为新一轮财税改革重点。 近期，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称"十五五"规划建议） 全文对外公开。其中在部署财政工作时，要求"增加地方自主财力"。 地方自主财力是一个比较新的说法。去年7月份党的二十届三中全会首次提出了"增加地方自主财力，拓 展地方税源，适当扩大地方税收管理权限"。 那么，究竟什么是地方自主财力？为何要增加地方自主财力？在过去一年多时间里，国家在增加地方自 主财力方面又究竟有了哪些动作？未来还会有哪些改革举措？ 地方自主财力增加举措逐步落地 过去业内常见的说法是地方财力、地方可用财力或地方可支配财力，中央提出的"地方自主财力"是一个 新说法。 西南财经大学财政税务学院院长李建军教授告诉第一财经，地方财力是地方政府能够运用的全部财政资 金总和，而地方自主财力是地方财力中地方可自主调配的部分，比如增值税等中央与地方共享税种中的 地方分成部分，房产税等归属于地方税种，归属于地方的非税收入，如各类收费、土地出让收入等。 "像中央对地方专项转移支付收入，它属于地方财力，但由于有指定用途，就不属于地方自主财力。中 央对地 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of China's fiscal policy in the first half of 2025, emphasizing increased investment in social welfare and measures to control local government hidden debt [1][2]. Group 1: Social Welfare Investments - The fiscal policy has increased investment in social welfare, with a 2% rise in basic pension levels for retirees and a 20 yuan increase in the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions [1]. - The central government allocated 1.1 trillion yuan in subsidies to support timely and full payment of basic pension benefits [1]. Group 2: Control of Hidden Debt - The report indicates effective measures to curb new hidden debt, prohibiting government expenditures and investment projects not included in the budget [2]. - A lifelong accountability system for government borrowing has been established, along with a mechanism for tracing debt issues, ensuring that any new hidden debt is identified and addressed promptly [2]. Group 3: Tax Reforms - The report mentions ongoing tax reforms, particularly the adjustment of consumption tax collection to enhance local revenue sources and improve the consumption environment [3]. - The specifics of which tax items will be shifted to the wholesale and retail stages and how the revenue will be distributed between central and local governments remain to be clarified [3]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report outlines six key tasks for future fiscal policy, including the use of more proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, and improvement of social welfare [3]. - Emphasis is placed on enhancing services for the elderly and children, providing subsidies for elderly care, and implementing free preschool education [3]. - The Ministry of Finance will continue to enforce policies to manage hidden debt and strengthen financial monitoring and emergency response [3].

Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of China's fiscal policy in the first half of 2025, emphasizing increased investment in social welfare and measures to control local government hidden debts [2][3]. Group 1: Social Welfare Investments - The fiscal policy has increased investment in social welfare, including a 2% rise in basic pension levels for retirees and a 20 yuan increase in the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions [2]. - The central government allocated 1.1 trillion yuan in subsidies to support timely and full payment of basic pension benefits [2]. Group 2: Control of Hidden Debts - The report indicates effective measures to curb new hidden debts, prohibiting government expenditures and investment projects not included in the budget [3]. - A lifetime accountability system for government borrowing has been implemented, along with a mechanism for tracing debt issues, ensuring strict accountability for any new hidden debts discovered [3]. Group 3: Tax Reforms - The report outlines ongoing tax reforms, particularly the adjustment of consumption tax collection to enhance local revenue sources and improve the consumption environment [4]. - The specifics of which tax items will be shifted to the wholesale and retail stages and how the revenue will be distributed between central and local governments are still under observation [4]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report identifies six key tasks for future fiscal policy, including the use of more proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, and further improvement of social welfare [4][5]. - Emphasis will be placed on risk prevention, with continued implementation of a comprehensive debt replacement policy and strict accountability for any new hidden debt behaviors [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the execution of China's fiscal policy in the first half of 2025, highlighting increased investment in people's livelihoods and measures to control local government hidden debts [3][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Finance reported a 2% increase in the basic pension level for retirees and a 20 yuan increase in the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions [3]. - A total of 1.1 trillion yuan was allocated in subsidies to support timely and sufficient payment of basic pension benefits [3]. Group 2: Control of Hidden Debts - The report indicates effective measures to curb new hidden debts, including prohibiting government expenditures and investment projects not included in the budget [4]. - A lifelong accountability system for government borrowing has been implemented, with strict measures to investigate and hold accountable any new hidden debt or false reporting [4]. Group 3: Tax Reform and Local Revenue - The report emphasizes the acceleration of tax reforms, particularly the adjustment of consumption tax collection to enhance local revenue sources and improve the consumption environment [5]. - The specifics of which tax items will be shifted to local collection and how revenues will be distributed between central and local governments remain to be clarified [5]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report outlines six key tasks for future fiscal policy, including the use of more proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, and improvement of people's livelihoods [5]. - Specific measures include providing subsidies for elderly care services and implementing free preschool education and childcare subsidies [5]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue a comprehensive debt management policy while monitoring and addressing new hidden debt behaviors promptly [5].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance has outlined six major deployments for future fiscal work, emphasizing the importance of fiscal policy execution and its impact on citizens and businesses [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The report highlights an increase in investment in the livelihood sector, with a nationwide increase of 2% in basic pension levels for retirees and a 20 yuan increase in the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions [1] - Central government has allocated 1.1 trillion yuan in subsidies to support timely and full payment of basic pension benefits [1] Group 2: Management of Hidden Debt - The report indicates effective measures to curb new hidden debt, including a prohibition on government expenditures and investment projects not included in the budget [2] - A lifelong accountability system for government borrowing has been established, along with a mechanism for tracing debt issues, ensuring that any new hidden debt is identified and addressed promptly [2] Group 3: Tax Reform Initiatives - The report mentions ongoing tax reforms, particularly the adjustment of consumption tax collection to enhance local revenue sources and improve the consumption environment [3] - Specific details on which tax items will be shifted to the wholesale and retail stages and how revenue will be distributed between central and local governments are still under observation [3] Group 4: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report outlines six key tasks for future fiscal policy, including the use of more proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, and enhancement of social welfare [3] - Emphasis is placed on strengthening services for the elderly and children, providing subsidies for elderly care, and promoting free preschool education [3] - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue implementing a comprehensive debt reduction policy while monitoring and addressing new hidden debt behaviors [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current peak season for asphalt has not shown better - than - expected performance. Short - term external disturbances have increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term or look for pressure levels after the price rises to arrange short positions. The supply of asphalt remains stable, the demand is weak due to weather and other factors, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline, and the South China region is still the price depression [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.25%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 15.91% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short - sell asphalt futures (bu2512) with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 3650 - 3750. They can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a ratio of 20% at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory, to prevent rising procurement costs, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 3300 - 3400. They can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a ratio of 20% at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The news of a possible US military strike on Venezuela has led to a rise in crude oil and asphalt prices. Since Venezuelan crude oil accounts for over 20% of China's asphalt refinery feedstock, the market is worried about raw material supply disruptions. However, the accuracy of the news needs to be verified by tracking Venezuelan crude oil shipments and China's imports [3]. - The refinery's production is stable, and the overall asphalt supply has little change. The demand is weak after the National Day holiday, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure has improved, with stable and low - pressure factory inventories and a declining social inventory. The problem of raw material shortage has not been fundamentally resolved, so the asphalt cracking spread remains high. The cost of crude oil is expected to decline as OPEC continues to increase production. The price of crude oil has dropped rapidly due to the escalation of Sino - US tariffs. The South China region remains the price depression due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions [3]. 3.4利多解读 - The pressure on asphalt factory inventories is low, providing a basis for manufacturers to support prices [6]. - In Shandong, Shengxing has resumed asphalt production, while Qicheng and Fengli have switched to producing residual oil. In the East China region, some major refineries have reduced production [6]. - There is an atmosphere of anti - cut - throat competition, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a document to resist disorderly price wars [6]. - There is a possibility of an escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela [6]. 3.5利空解读 - The escalation of US tariffs on China has weakened the overall sentiment in the risk market [7]. - The recent increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil and the continued production increase by OPEC+ in November are negative factors for asphalt prices [12]. 3.6 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Price**: On October 22, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3330 yuan/ton, 3470 yuan/ton, 3330 yuan/ton, and 3400 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous day, the prices in Shandong and North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in the Yangtze River Delta and South China remained unchanged [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract decreased by 56 yuan/ton, 46 yuan/ton, 56 yuan/ton, and 46 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous day [7]. - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spread of Shandong spot to Brent decreased by 1.7329 yuan/barrel compared with the previous day, while the cracking spread of the futures main contract to Brent increased by 15.9425 yuan/barrel [7].

Core Viewpoint - The World Health Organization (WHO) has launched the "3by35" initiative, urging countries to implement health taxes to increase the actual prices of tobacco, alcohol, and sugary drinks by at least 50% by 2035, aiming to curb chronic diseases and generate significant public revenue [1][7]. Group 1: Health Tax Implementation - Health taxes are levied on products that negatively impact public health, with China already taxing tobacco and alcohol, but the effectiveness in changing consumption behavior remains limited [1][3]. - Experts suggest that China should regularly increase tobacco tax rates every 1-2 years to counteract the increasing affordability of tobacco products [2][3]. - The average tax share of tobacco products in China is around 52%, which is below the global average of 62.6% [3][4]. Group 2: Tobacco and Alcohol Taxation - Tobacco tax is considered the most effective measure for tobacco control, with a 10% price increase leading to a 4-8% decrease in consumption, especially among low-income groups [2][5]. - The current alcohol tax rate in China is 15.6%, significantly lower than the average of 25.9% in upper-middle-income countries, indicating room for improvement [4][5]. - The reliance on ad valorem taxes (based on price) rather than specific taxes (based on quantity) for tobacco and alcohol in China is highlighted as a potential area for reform [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Tobacco Use - In 2020, tobacco use caused direct and indirect economic losses in China amounting to 24.3 trillion yuan, far exceeding the tax revenue from the tobacco industry of 15.2 trillion yuan [6]. - The dual benefit of increasing tobacco taxes is emphasized, where higher prices lead to reduced consumption and increased government revenue [5][6]. Group 4: Sugary Drink Taxation - WHO's initiative also calls for the taxation of sugary drinks, with 59.1% of the global population currently covered by such taxes [7][10]. - The potential for a sugary drink tax in China faces challenges, including the need for social consensus and a well-defined administrative framework [8][9]. - The definition of sugary drinks by WHO includes all beverages containing free sugars, suggesting that even natural fruit juices should be considered for taxation [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad emphasized that advancing a consumption tax reform centered on Value Added Tax (VAT) is crucial for overcoming the current tax system chaos in Brazil [1] Tax System Issues - Brazil's current consumption tax levels are excessively high, and the system is complex and inefficient [1] - The World Bank assessed 190 tax systems, placing Brazil among the bottom ten [1] Benefits of VAT Implementation - Introducing VAT is expected to significantly improve Brazil's tax ranking [1] - Consumption tax reform will help reduce overall tax pressure, enhance economic transparency and fairness, and lay the foundation for sustainable economic development in Brazil [1] Long-term Tax Strategy - Without addressing VAT, Brazil will never be able to lower its tax burden [1] - VAT can alleviate the tax burden on investment and exports, balance tax burdens across different industries, end tax wars between states, reduce tax evasion, and expand the tax base [1] - A clear understanding of consumption and income tax rates is necessary to achieve a more reasonable fiscal balance [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **consumption tax reform** in China, particularly in the context of the **14th Five-Year Plan** and its implications for economic structure and local government finance [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **14th Five-Year Plan** emphasizes the need to adjust and optimize the consumption tax system, including changes in tax rates and the shift of tax collection from production to retail [2][3]. - Historical reforms in consumption tax have focused on expanding the tax base, optimizing tax rates (mostly increasing them), and improving collection methods by moving from production to retail [5][6]. - The current consumption tax system targets products like tobacco, alcohol, automobiles, and oil, which were established as a supplement to the 1994 tax reform due to the ease of management and the high revenue needs not met by VAT [6][11]. - The potential shift of consumption tax to the retail level could lead to increased tax burdens on products like alcohol and automobiles, but careful assessment is needed to avoid negatively impacting consumer demand [11][12]. - Regions with high populations and consumption, such as Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, contribute significantly to consumption tax revenue, while provinces like Guizhou and Hubei have unique contributions due to local production [9][10]. Additional Important Content - The discussion highlights the importance of **indirect taxes** over direct taxes in the current economic climate, particularly in light of aging demographics and the need for sustainable social welfare systems [23][24]. - The **international comparison** shows that the consumption tax systems in the U.S. and Japan differ significantly from China's, with the U.S. relying heavily on property taxes and local consumption taxes, while Japan shares tax revenues between central and local governments [10][17]. - The challenges of implementing consumption tax reforms include balancing interests among various stakeholders and ensuring that local governments remain incentivized without over-relying on a single revenue source [12][25]. - The potential for expanding the consumption tax base to include all goods is currently not on the agenda, as it could lead to double taxation issues with the existing VAT system [22][20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the consumption tax reform in China, its historical context, implications for local governance, and comparisons with international practices.

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing increased supply due to the resumption of production in some refineries in North China, while demand remains weak due to rainfall and funding shortages, leading to price adjustments [1] Supply and Demand - Supply has increased as some refineries in North China resume asphalt production - Demand has not exceeded expectations during the peak season due to rainfall and funding shortages - Inventory structure has improved, with stable factory inventories and reduced pressure, while social inventories are being depleted [1] Price Movements - Asphalt prices have seen a decline of 10 to 100 CNY/ton in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest Sichuan-Chongqing, while prices in North China have increased by 10 CNY/ton [1] - The main refineries in the Yangtze River Delta have reduced transportation prices by 100 CNY/ton, and some brands in Shandong have lowered prices, leading to a drop in mainstream transaction prices [1] Cost Factors - OPEC's increase in production has led to a decrease in crude oil costs, which may influence asphalt pricing [1] - The current peak season has not shown extraordinary performance, but stabilization in crude oil prices may allow for bullish positioning in the future [1] Market Outlook - In the medium to long term, conditions for construction are expected to improve as autumn approaches, despite the anticipated rainfall in the short term - The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns over potential U.S. military actions against Venezuela [1] - The valuation of asphalt is currently high compared to crude oil, with a weakening trend in the crack spread [1]