延续必要财政支出强度 2026年赤字规模或接近6万亿元 中央经济工作会议提出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。业内人士表示，2026年的财政政策取向 与2025年保持一致，预计2026年财政将继续保持必要支出强度，赤字规模或接近6万亿元，新增专项债 规模或达5万亿元，同时消费税相关改革可能会加快。 保持必要债务总规模新增专项债将达5万亿元 债务管理是现代国家治理的重要内容，合理扩张的债务能够充实财政资源，在保证必要财政支出强度 外，还能通过公共投资、消费补贴、社会福利支出等方式加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，增强财政政策 灵活性。 罗志恒表示，近年来，财政收入端制约了财政支出增速的进一步提升，通过提高新增债务额度，能充分 恢复地方政府发展经济的能力，进而推动企业和居民行为从防御走向扩张。他预计，2026年新增债务总 规模将提高到15万亿元。 吴棋滢认为，2026年广义赤字规模将随GDP规模小幅增加而增加，并更注重结构性调整。她预计，2026 年新增地方政府专项债券规模将达到5万亿元，超长期特别国债规模增至1.5万亿元，两者合计较2025年 增加0.6万亿元。"若2026年年中出现经济承压情况，可进一步调整特 ...

《求是》杂志近日刊文将"扩大内需"明确为战略之举，其分量堪比当年"房住不炒""科技自立自强"的提出。这不仅关乎宏观经济走向，更牵动每个普通人的 钱袋子，此次"扩大内需"绝非简单"催消费"，而是关乎经济安全与民生底气的深层变革。 一提"提振消费"，不少人就觉得"又要掏腰包"：消费贷、以旧换新、消费券……这些举措多是提前释放需求，治标不治本。2025年11月全国社会消费品零售 总额创历史新低，印证了这种模式的局限，消费提振已陷入"越刺激越乏力"的困境。 收入分配改革是核心，通过平衡贫富差距，推动"哑铃型"社会向"橄榄型"转变，扩大中等收入群体，才能形成稳定消费力。 问题核心并非"不想消费"，谁不愿买新东西、享好生活？症结在于"不能"与"不敢"：收入有限是"不能"的现实，养老医疗等后顾之忧是"不敢"的根源。过往 政策却忽略根本：若不解决"有钱花、敢花钱"的前提，再密集的刺激也只是无源之水。 此次《求是》文章的突破，在于跳出"刺激消费"惯性，提出"扩大内需"完整概念：涵盖消费需求、投资需求与金融需求，三者构成"内需三角"，而非单 一"花钱命题"。 中国经济"三驾马车"中，出口曾长期发力，但大国经济根基必扎于内需，这正 ...

Core Insights - The central government has emphasized the need to address local fiscal difficulties for the first time in history during the recent Central Economic Work Conference, highlighting the importance of ensuring basic public services and financial stability at the grassroots level [2][3]. Group 1: Local Fiscal Challenges - Local fiscal expenditures have consistently exceeded revenues, necessitating reliance on central government transfers and debt to cover deficits. In the first ten months of this year, local public budget revenues were approximately 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while expenditures reached about 19.1 trillion yuan, up 1.2% [3]. - The decline in real estate market revenues has significantly impacted local government finances, with land transfer income expected to drop to about 4.8 trillion yuan in 2024, a decrease of approximately 45% from the peak of 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 [3][4]. - Many local governments are facing severe fiscal pressures, with some even experiencing wage arrears due to insufficient funds to maintain basic operations and services [4]. Group 2: Policy Responses and Reforms - The central government is pushing for reforms to improve the local tax system, including the gradual transfer of certain consumption tax revenues to local governments, which could increase local fiscal autonomy [6][7]. - The government aims to enhance the matching of fiscal rights and responsibilities at the local level, with nearly 50% of county-level governments having a fiscal self-sufficiency rate below 30% [5]. - Experts suggest that increasing central transfer payments and raising local debt limits are essential to address the fiscal shortfalls caused by the real estate downturn, thereby restoring local governments' capacity to stimulate economic growth [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The anticipated increase in the total scale of new government debt for next year is expected to be around 15 trillion yuan, higher than this year's approximately 13 trillion yuan, to support local fiscal needs [10]. - Local governments are also encouraged to optimize their fiscal structures by enhancing the management of existing assets and reducing unnecessary expenditures to improve the efficiency of fiscal fund usage [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The central government has emphasized the need to address local fiscal difficulties, marking a significant shift in focus during the recent Central Economic Work Conference, which aims to ensure the basic financial security of local governments and improve the local tax system [3][5][10]. Group 1: Local Fiscal Challenges - Local fiscal expenditures generally exceed revenues, necessitating reliance on central government transfers and debt to cover deficits. In the first ten months of this year, local public budget revenues were approximately 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while expenditures reached about 19.1 trillion yuan, up 1.2% [5][6]. - The decline in real estate-related tax revenues and land sales has significantly impacted local government finances, with land sale revenues dropping from a peak of 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to about 4.8 trillion yuan in 2024, a decrease of approximately 45% [5][6]. - Local governments are facing increasing pressure to maintain basic public services, with some regions experiencing salary delays due to insufficient fiscal resources [6][7]. Group 2: Tax System Reforms - The central government plans to enhance the local tax system, focusing on three key areas: shifting the consumption tax collection to local levels, improving the value-added tax refund policies, and consolidating local additional taxes [11][12]. - The government aims to increase local fiscal autonomy by allowing local authorities to set specific tax rates within certain limits, thereby enhancing their revenue-generating capabilities [11][12]. - The proposed reforms include optimizing the sharing ratio of shared taxes, which could potentially increase local governments' share of revenue from major tax categories like value-added tax and corporate income tax [12]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - Experts suggest that to alleviate local fiscal pressures, the central government should increase transfer payments and raise local debt limits, thereby restoring local governments' capacity to stimulate economic growth [14][15]. - There is a call for the central government to gradually assume responsibilities for social security, public safety, and infrastructure projects to reduce the fiscal burden on local governments [15]. - Local governments are encouraged to enhance revenue through asset management and tax collection while optimizing expenditure structures to improve the efficiency of fiscal resource utilization [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The central government has placed significant emphasis on addressing local fiscal difficulties, marking the first time this issue has been highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference since 2000. The focus is on ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level and improving the local tax system [1][5]. Group 1: Local Fiscal Challenges - Local fiscal expenditures generally exceed revenues, necessitating reliance on central government transfers and debt to cover deficits. In the first ten months of this year, local public budget revenues were approximately 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while expenditures reached about 19.1 trillion yuan, up 1.2% [2]. - The decline in real estate market revenues has significantly impacted local government finances, with land transfer income expected to be around 4.8 trillion yuan in 2024, a decrease of about 45% from the peak of 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 [2][3]. - The mismatch between fiscal rights and responsibilities remains a critical issue, with nearly 50% of county-level finances having a self-sufficiency rate below 30%. Even with central transfers, the coverage of expenditures is only 86% [4]. Group 2: Policy Responses and Reforms - The Central Economic Work Conference has called for the improvement of the local tax system, which includes three key areas: shifting the consumption tax collection to local levels, refining the VAT refund policy, and merging certain local taxes into a single local surcharge [7][8]. - The government aims to increase local fiscal autonomy by adjusting the sharing ratio of shared taxes, which include VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax, to enhance local revenue [8]. - Experts suggest that to address the fiscal shortfall caused by the real estate downturn, the central government should increase transfer payments or raise local debt limits, thereby restoring local governments' capacity to stimulate economic growth [9][12]. Group 3: Immediate and Long-term Solutions - Immediate liquidity injection is deemed essential to alleviate current fiscal pressures, while long-term solutions involve systemic reforms to the local tax structure [8][9]. - Local governments are encouraged to optimize their fiscal spending by enhancing the efficiency of fund usage and reducing unnecessary expenditures through zero-based budgeting reforms [11]. - The central government is also considering shifting certain responsibilities, such as social security and public safety, to reduce the fiscal burden on local governments [12].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumer spending as a key macroeconomic policy direction for 2026 and beyond, with specific policy spaces identified for short, medium, and long-term strategies [1][4][5] - Short-term policy measures include extending and expanding direct subsidies, consumer loan interest subsidies, and implementing paid staggered vacations to enhance consumer experience and demand [1][2][3] - Medium-term strategies focus on accelerating consumption tax reform, upgrading consumption infrastructure, leveraging new technologies for product and scene development, and promoting employment-friendly development [4][5] - Long-term perspectives involve improving income distribution systems, enhancing social security, and optimizing consumption through population growth and international demand activation [5][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of the anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts on global markets, leading to a risk-on sentiment and a recovery in stock prices, particularly in technology and materials sectors [6][7][8] - Despite a mixed U.S. economic data landscape, market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [7][15] - The article highlights the performance of various asset classes, noting a significant rise in copper prices and a stable demand for gold, while U.S. Treasury yields have shown volatility [9][10][12] Group 3 - The article outlines recent policy changes in housing provident fund regulations aimed at supporting housing consumption, including increased withdrawal limits and expanded usage scenarios [27][28][29] - It notes that various regions are implementing measures to optimize housing fund policies, aligning them with population policies and enhancing support for high-quality housing [27][28][29] - The article also mentions the broader context of economic recovery efforts, including the promotion of durable goods consumption and the integration of artificial intelligence in consumer sectors [35][36]

Group 1 - The potential for national income doubling is expected to open a "golden decade" for new consumption development, with a theoretical target of nearly doubling per capita GDP by 2035, from $13,300 in 2024 to approximately $20,000 [16][17][33] - The growth of the middle-income group is crucial for driving consumption, with a target of over 800 million middle-income individuals in the next 15 years, which will significantly influence the scale and quality of domestic consumption [42][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting common prosperity to activate domestic consumption potential, highlighting that increasing the income of low-income groups can effectively convert new income into consumption [20][23][49] Group 2 - The beauty and personal care sector is expected to see growth driven by new materials in the medical beauty segment, with companies like Lepu Medical focusing on innovative materials that fill market gaps [4][5][15] - The beauty industry is entering a low-growth phase, where brand group operations and market share enhancement will be critical for sustainable growth, with companies like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei Holdings being highlighted for their potential [4][5][15] - The pet care market is experiencing both consumption upgrades and intensified competition, with a focus on high-end, health-oriented products [4][5][15] Group 3 - The service consumption sector, particularly tourism and sports, is expected to benefit from policy encouragement, with companies like Sanxia Tourism and Lansi Co. being recommended for investment [4][5][15] - The report notes that the tourism sector is poised for growth due to increased interest in flexible vacations and the aging population, which is expected to drive demand for river cruises [4][5][15] - The sports service sector is highlighted as a core growth area, with event-driven economic activities expected to boost related industries [4][5][15] Group 4 - The IP and trendy toy market is entering a new phase with a surge in supply, and companies like Pop Mart are expected to maintain their leading positions through effective IP management [4][5][15] - The report indicates that the emergence of new designers and retail platforms is likely to sustain high demand for IP products, with a focus on companies that can effectively monetize potential IP [4][5][15] Group 5 - The gold and jewelry sector is facing short-term demand pressure due to tax reforms and seasonal fluctuations, with a focus on brands that can maintain pricing power amid these changes [5][15]

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes the need to increase local fiscal autonomy as a key focus of the new round of fiscal and tax reforms, aiming to address the growing financial imbalances at the grassroots level [1][3]. Summary by Sections Definition and Importance of Local Fiscal Autonomy - Local fiscal autonomy refers to the portion of local government finances that can be independently allocated, including shared tax revenues and local taxes [1][2]. - The core essence of increasing local fiscal autonomy is to enhance the "autonomy" of local governments in managing their finances [2]. Reasons for Increasing Local Fiscal Autonomy - The need arises from the optimization of intergovernmental revenue distribution, as local governments struggle to meet expenditure needs [3]. - Recent years have seen a decline in local fiscal revenues while mandatory expenditures continue to rise, leading to significant financial pressures on local governments [3]. Current Measures and Future Reforms - The government is pushing for reforms to increase local tax revenues, including the transfer of certain consumption tax collection responsibilities to local governments [4][7]. - The adjustment of revenue-sharing ratios between central and local governments is also being considered to enhance local fiscal autonomy [8][9]. Specific Initiatives - The recent reform in Guangdong province aims to increase fiscal resources at the municipal and county levels, addressing the financial pressures faced by local governments [6]. - The merging of various local taxes into a unified "local additional tax" is proposed to enhance local governments' ability to set tax rates according to local needs [9]. Fiscal Data and Trends - In the first ten months of this year, local government revenues were approximately 10.5 trillion yuan, with expenditures reaching about 19.1 trillion yuan, indicating a significant fiscal gap [3]. - The local government fund budget revenue saw a decline of 3.3%, while expenditures increased by 7.3%, highlighting the ongoing fiscal challenges [3]. Future Focus Areas - Key areas for future reforms include the optimization of shared tax ratios and the establishment of local additional taxes, which are expected to be focal points in enhancing local fiscal autonomy [7][8].

Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of China's fiscal policy in the first half of 2025, emphasizing increased investment in social welfare and measures to control local government hidden debt [1][2]. Group 1: Social Welfare Investments - The fiscal policy has increased investment in social welfare, with a 2% rise in basic pension levels for retirees and a 20 yuan increase in the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions [1]. - The central government allocated 1.1 trillion yuan in subsidies to support timely and full payment of basic pension benefits [1]. Group 2: Control of Hidden Debt - The report indicates effective measures to curb new hidden debt, prohibiting government expenditures and investment projects not included in the budget [2]. - A lifelong accountability system for government borrowing has been established, along with a mechanism for tracing debt issues, ensuring that any new hidden debt is identified and addressed promptly [2]. Group 3: Tax Reforms - The report mentions ongoing tax reforms, particularly the adjustment of consumption tax collection to enhance local revenue sources and improve the consumption environment [3]. - The specifics of which tax items will be shifted to the wholesale and retail stages and how the revenue will be distributed between central and local governments remain to be clarified [3]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report outlines six key tasks for future fiscal policy, including the use of more proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, and improvement of social welfare [3]. - Emphasis is placed on enhancing services for the elderly and children, providing subsidies for elderly care, and implementing free preschool education [3]. - The Ministry of Finance will continue to enforce policies to manage hidden debt and strengthen financial monitoring and emergency response [3].

Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of China's fiscal policy in the first half of 2025, emphasizing increased investment in social welfare and measures to control local government hidden debts [2][3]. Group 1: Social Welfare Investments - The fiscal policy has increased investment in social welfare, including a 2% rise in basic pension levels for retirees and a 20 yuan increase in the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions [2]. - The central government allocated 1.1 trillion yuan in subsidies to support timely and full payment of basic pension benefits [2]. Group 2: Control of Hidden Debts - The report indicates effective measures to curb new hidden debts, prohibiting government expenditures and investment projects not included in the budget [3]. - A lifetime accountability system for government borrowing has been implemented, along with a mechanism for tracing debt issues, ensuring strict accountability for any new hidden debts discovered [3]. Group 3: Tax Reforms - The report outlines ongoing tax reforms, particularly the adjustment of consumption tax collection to enhance local revenue sources and improve the consumption environment [4]. - The specifics of which tax items will be shifted to the wholesale and retail stages and how the revenue will be distributed between central and local governments are still under observation [4]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report identifies six key tasks for future fiscal policy, including the use of more proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, and further improvement of social welfare [4][5]. - Emphasis will be placed on risk prevention, with continued implementation of a comprehensive debt replacement policy and strict accountability for any new hidden debt behaviors [5].