古茗 2025 年 GMV 同比增长约 18%，但 12 月份外卖占比显著下降至 37%，主要受补贴退坡和季节性因素影响，外卖实收率约为 75%，补 贴高峰期时不足 70%。 古茗预计 2026 年总收入（GMV）达 350 亿元，公司收入将是 GMV 的 40%以上，增长动力主要来自新增 3,000 多家门店，单店日均收入预计 与今年持平，约为 7,500 至 8,000 元。 古茗计划通过增加咖啡产品销售占比至 25%，推广早餐和下午茶场景， 推出新品及增加付费投流预算等方式提高单店日均销量，投流 ROI 比例 预计在 1:4 至 1:5 左右。 蜜雪冰城 12 月份同店销售增长 3-4 个百分点，但实收仅微增 1%左右， 线上销售占比 36%，同比上升但环比下降，冬季产品平均单价略高于夏 季产品。 蜜雪冰城 2025 年日均 GMV 约为 4,600 万元，高于 2024 年的 4,100 万元，预计 2026 年净增 5,000 家门店，新开 8,000 家门店，重点布局 景区和交通枢纽，并计划向一线城市扩展。 Q&A 2025 年茶饮行业数据总结及 2026 年展望 20260105 摘要 12 月 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：林思婕/陈文博/赖晟炜 公司动态 公司近况 我们看好公司在外卖补贴退坡下实现相对稳健业绩增长，建议关注早餐等新品类测试效果、幸运咖和福 鹿家发展潜力、以及海外存量市场调整和新市场拓展情况。 评论 我们看好公司通过产品创新、线下营销及小程序引流等手段应对外卖补贴退坡影响，整体价格体系维持 稳定。此外蜜雪在部分城市试点早餐业务（推出售价7.9 元的早餐奶+面包套餐），建议关注测试效 果。开店方面，我们估计蜜雪主品牌25 年净增约7,000家，门店数未来有望稳健增长。 关注新品牌发展潜力。1）幸运咖今年以来强化果+咖产品创新并推出开店补贴政策，截至11 月24 日全 球签约门店已突破1 万家（极海数据显示目前幸运咖实际开业门店数超8,000 家，其中三线及以下城市 占比69%）。公司持续布局上游供应链支撑门店扩张，目前已与超1 万个果园合作（最大战略果园占地 2 万亩）、海南自建咖啡工厂规模达19 万亩、年产能突破2 万吨。2）10月公司公告收购鲜啤福鹿家 53%股权，主打6-10 元/500ml的高性价比现打鲜啤，我们估计单店年销50-60 万元；目前门店数突破 1,600 家，且公司计划 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current high demand for ready-to-drink beverages driven by delivery subsidies is leading to industry supply expansion, but concerns are rising about brand same-store performance under high base conditions by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The overall supply growth rate is slowing down, with the total number of milk tea stores in China reaching 518,000 as of August 2025, a month-on-month increase of 2,000, and coffee stores totaling 190,000, a month-on-month increase of 4,000 [1] - The marginal reduction in delivery subsidies since July has led to a simultaneous slowdown in the store expansion speed of major brands [1] Group 2: Store Opening Trends - There is significant differentiation in store openings within the tea beverage segment, with leading brands in the mid-to-high-end market, such as Gu Ming and Ba Wang Tea Ji, maintaining a competitive edge, while low-end brand Mi Xue Bing Cheng has slowed its opening pace to protect existing store sales [2] - In the coffee segment, industry penetration is rapidly increasing, with brands like Luckin, Kudi, and Lucky Coffee expanding quickly, while Starbucks maintains a slow growth rate in store numbers [2] Group 3: Store Efficiency - The growth rate of store efficiency for leading brands is under pressure due to the reduction of third-party delivery subsidies, with August store efficiency growth for brands in the mid-price range (10-20 yuan) generally falling within the 10%-20% year-on-year growth range, although there is some internal differentiation [3] - High-end brands have limited participation in subsidy activities, which may affect their store efficiency differently [3]