机构：中金公司 研究员：林思婕/陈文博/赖晟炜 公司动态 公司近况 我们看好公司在外卖补贴退坡下实现相对稳健业绩增长，建议关注早餐等新品类测试效果、幸运咖和福 鹿家发展潜力、以及海外存量市场调整和新市场拓展情况。 评论 我们看好公司通过产品创新、线下营销及小程序引流等手段应对外卖补贴退坡影响，整体价格体系维持 稳定。此外蜜雪在部分城市试点早餐业务（推出售价7.9 元的早餐奶+面包套餐），建议关注测试效 果。开店方面，我们估计蜜雪主品牌25 年净增约7,000家，门店数未来有望稳健增长。 关注新品牌发展潜力。1）幸运咖今年以来强化果+咖产品创新并推出开店补贴政策，截至11 月24 日全 球签约门店已突破1 万家（极海数据显示目前幸运咖实际开业门店数超8,000 家，其中三线及以下城市 占比69%）。公司持续布局上游供应链支撑门店扩张，目前已与超1 万个果园合作（最大战略果园占地 2 万亩）、海南自建咖啡工厂规模达19 万亩、年产能突破2 万吨。2）10月公司公告收购鲜啤福鹿家 53%股权，主打6-10 元/500ml的高性价比现打鲜啤，我们估计单店年销50-60 万元；目前门店数突破 1,600 家，且公司计划 ...

12月15日，据钱江视频报道，针对"蜜雪冰城回应7.9元早餐套餐被嫌贵"相关话题，记者咨询了杭州的 两家蜜雪冰城门店，其中一家门店只上线了早餐奶，另一家门店则有早餐销售，工作人员告诉记者，目 前并没有收到价格调整通知，记者询问是否有消费者觉得贵，工作人员回复"应该不是太贵吧"。 据报道，蜜雪冰城在大连、西安、南宁和杭州4座试点城市上线早餐产品，其中7.9元的早餐套餐组合被 一些消费者嫌贵，"跟雪王价格亲民路线不太符！" 12月12日，蜜雪冰城开始在部分城市试点售卖早餐套餐。这个套餐包括"早餐奶+面包"的组合，定价7.9 元。早餐奶有五红奶、玉米奶等选择，单买要5元；面包是卡尔顿、乐锦记这些品牌的预制包装款。 值得一提的，早在本次"进军早餐"前，蜜雪集团曾于10月份宣布合计斥资2.97亿元，收购福鹿家53%的 股权，以进军现打鲜啤领域。 鲜啤福鹿家创立于2021年，主要通过线下门店，为消费者提供现打现饮的鲜啤产品，包括经典鲜啤及果 啤等创新款鲜啤。截至2025年8月31日，鲜啤福鹿家拥有约1200家门店。 谈及收购原因，蜜雪集团在公告中称，该投资后，蜜雪集团的产品品类将从现制果饮、茶饮、冰淇淋和 咖啡延伸至现打 ...

Investment Rating - Initiate with OUTPERFORM rating [1][2] Core Views - MIXUE Group is the largest fresh beverage chain in China and ranks fourth globally in terms of GMV, with a market share of 2.2% [3][7] - The company aims to achieve a "trinity of total cost leadership" through a strong supply chain, brand IP, and store operations [4][28] - The fresh beverage market is experiencing significant growth driven by rising disposable income and consumer demand for higher quality products [12][14] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 24.83 billion in 2024 to RMB 42.17 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 22% [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4.45 billion in 2024 to RMB 7.50 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 40% [5] - The company is valued at a P/E of 25x for 2026, leading to a target price of HK$ 482 [5] Market Position - The fresh beverage market in China is expected to grow from RMB 517.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 1,163.4 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 17.6% [12][14] - The market share of fresh tea drinks is projected to increase significantly, especially in lower-tier cities [18][23] Competitive Advantages - MIXUE Group has established a comprehensive digital supply chain covering procurement, production, and logistics, allowing for cost advantages [30][37] - The company has a unique brand IP, "Snow King," which enhances brand recognition and consumer loyalty [38] - The franchise model has led to a rapid expansion of stores, with over 48,000 locations in China as of 1H25 [41][43] Expansion Strategy - The company plans to penetrate both domestic and international markets, focusing on lower-tier cities and Southeast Asia [4][49] - MIXUE Group has launched sub-brands like Lucky Coffee and Fresh Beer to diversify its product offerings and revenue streams [49]

本文转载自每日经济新闻 值班编辑 | 宝珠 视觉 | 顾芗 近日，不少网友在社交平台上分享，自己从蜜雪冰城（企业微信）的社群推广和朋友圈中看到，雪王发 布了一份关于"早餐"的调查问卷。 问卷涉及到询问大家的性别、年龄、职业、省份、喜欢的早餐类型、购买早餐的花费等多个选项，以及 大家希望的形式和口味。不少网友在该类分享贴下评论表示：支持蜜雪冰城，带来平价稳定的早餐。 星标关注《盐财经》 此外，有网友发帖称，蜜雪冰城已开始上新"早餐奶"，在官方小程序点单界面新增"早餐系列"，涵盖早 餐五红奶、五黑奶、玉米奶等数款产品，均售价5元。 据极目新闻，一位接近蜜雪冰城的人士表示，目前"早餐计划"仅在大连、西安、南宁、杭州等城市进行 部分试新，上线产品包括早餐椰椰奶等四款乳品，售价均为5元。同时，目前暂时没有大面积推广计 划。 据了解，蜜雪冰城是以新鲜冰淇淋茶饮为主的全国知名饮品连锁品牌。截至2025年6月，蜜雪集团全球 门店超过53000家，拥有蜜雪冰城、幸运咖两大品牌，提供单价约6元的现制果饮、茶饮、冰淇淋和咖啡 等产品。 值得一提的是，在本次"进军早餐"前，蜜雪集团曾于10月1日，宣布合计斥资2.97亿元，收购福鹿家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The secondary market is closely monitoring the movements of new tea beverage giants, with Mixue Group's stock closing at HKD 413 per share on November 27, resulting in a market capitalization of HKD 156.8 billion. This performance is attributed to the company's low-key testing of new business growth points, including a "breakfast plan" currently trialed in select cities [1][3]. Group 1: Breakfast Strategy - The company has initiated a low-price strategy targeting the breakfast consumption scene, with a recent survey on consumer preferences for breakfast items like soy milk and coffee. A "breakfast series" has been launched in certain areas, featuring products priced at RMB 5 [3]. - The breakfast product lineup includes four types of milk, such as "breakfast coconut milk," with no large-scale promotional plans currently in place. This is not the first attempt by the brand to expand into the morning consumption period, as previous tests included a "coffee + baking" combo sold at RMB 10 [3]. Group 2: Store Network and Financial Performance - The new business trials are supported by the company's extensive offline network and solid financial data, with a reported revenue of RMB 14.87 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of RMB 2.72 billion, up 44.1% [4]. - As of June 30, 2025, Mixue Group has expanded its global store count to 53,014, while its coffee business, Luckin Coffee, has surpassed 10,000 stores, positioning itself as a significant player in the domestic coffee chain market [4]. Group 3: Multi-Category Expansion and Operational Efficiency - In addition to breakfast and coffee, the company is extending its product range through acquisitions, having invested approximately RMB 297 million to acquire a 53% stake in Fresh Beer Fulu, thereby entering the fresh beer market [5]. - The company's profitability remains relatively strong within the industry, with a net profit margin of 18.27% for the first half of 2025, outperforming competitors like Tea Baidao and Bawang Tea Ji. The low-price breakfast initiative is seen as a strategy to leverage existing supply chain advantages and enhance single-store value [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the tea beverage chain brand Mixue Ice City is quietly entering the breakfast market, which has sparked widespread discussion in the industry [1][3] - Mixue Ice City has conducted a consumer survey regarding breakfast preferences through its corporate WeChat group, indicating a strategic move into the breakfast segment [1] - The breakfast initiative has already moved from survey to practice, with new breakfast options available in some cities through the official app, including products priced at 5 yuan [1] Group 2 - Prior to entering the breakfast market, Mixue Group has been actively diversifying, including a recent acquisition of 53% of "Fresh Beer Fu Lu Jia" for 297 million yuan, expanding into the fresh beer sector [3] - The company's diversification efforts are supported by strong financial performance, with a reported revenue of 14.87 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 44.1% [3] - As of June 30, 2025, Mixue Group has expanded its global store count to 53,014, with an increase of 9,796 stores compared to the same period last year, covering all provincial-level administrative regions in China and 12 overseas countries and regions [3]

Core Insights - The company Mixue Ice City is exploring the breakfast market by launching a survey to understand consumer preferences for breakfast items [1] - The company has introduced a "Breakfast Series" in select cities, featuring products priced at 5 yuan each [4][6] - Mixue Ice City has expanded its product offerings to include fresh beer through an investment in a company called Fresh Beer Fulu, acquiring a 53% stake for approximately 297 million yuan [6][7] Company Developments - The breakfast offerings include various milk drinks such as Five Red Milk and Five Black Milk, and are currently being tested in cities like Dalian, Xi'an, Nanning, and Hangzhou [4][6] - The company reported a significant revenue increase, achieving 14.87 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 39.3% year-on-year growth [7] - As of June 30, 2025, Mixue Ice City has expanded its global store count to 53,014, adding 9,796 new stores compared to the previous year [7] Market Context - The breakfast segment is competitive, with established players like McDonald's, KFC, and Starbucks already offering breakfast options [6] - Other brands like Heytea and Naixue's Tea have previously ventured into breakfast products, indicating a growing trend in the beverage industry [6] - Mixue Ice City's recent move into the beer market signifies a diversification strategy aimed at expanding its product range beyond traditional beverages [6][7]

Core Insights - The company is launching a breakfast initiative, including a survey to gather consumer preferences on breakfast options [1][4] - New breakfast products, such as various milk options, are being introduced at a price point of 5 yuan each [2][4] - The company has recently made a significant investment in the fresh beer sector, acquiring a 53% stake in a fresh beer brand for 297 million yuan [4] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3% [4] - Gross profit reached 4.71 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 38.3% compared to the previous year [4] - Net profit was reported at 2.72 billion yuan, with a substantial year-on-year increase of 44.1% [4] Expansion and Market Presence - As of June 30, 2025, the company has expanded its global store count to 53,014, adding 9,796 stores year-on-year [5] - The store network covers all provincial-level administrative regions in China and extends to 12 overseas countries and regions [5] - The company's stock closed at 413 HKD per share on November 27, with a market capitalization of 156.8 billion HKD [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emerging trend of "micro-drinking" among young consumers, highlighting how brands like "Mixue Ice Cream" and "Chayan Yuese" are adapting to this trend by expanding their product offerings to include alcoholic beverages [3][6][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - The rise of "micro-drinking" is characterized as a business focused on emotional value, providing consumers with psychological and emotional satisfaction rather than just selling alcohol [6]. - Young consumers are increasingly rejecting traditional drinking culture, favoring personal enjoyment and comfort over the pressure of social drinking [8]. - The success of brands like Rio and Helen's Little Bar indicates that "micro-drinking" has become a significant lifestyle choice for young people [8]. Group 2: Brand Strategies - Mixue Ice Cream is expanding into the beer market by acquiring a majority stake in the fresh beer brand "Fulu Family," aiming to leverage its supply chain efficiency to offer affordable beer [10][12]. - Chayan Yuese is developing a cultural-driven approach by launching a sub-brand for alcoholic tea drinks, focusing on emotional experiences and cultural symbols [17][19]. - Both brands are targeting different consumer segments: Mixue focuses on cost-effective solutions, while Chayan Yuese emphasizes cultural experiences and high-quality products [10][17]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Mixue Ice Cream reported a revenue of 14.875 billion yuan, with 97.4% coming from sales to franchisees, indicating a strong supply chain model [12][15]. - Chayan Yuese achieved a revenue of 1.59 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a growth rate of 29.1%, and 78.9% of its revenue coming from member purchases, showcasing strong customer loyalty [17][24]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Mixue Ice Cream faces saturation in the market, with a significant number of stores leading to declining sales per store and increasing closure rates [14][15]. - Fulu Family's challenge lies in competing with established beer brands and navigating the complexities of the beer market, which has higher barriers to entry compared to the tea market [16]. - Chayan Yuese must balance its cultural identity with the need for expansion outside its home region while maintaining quality and operational efficiency [24].

Core Insights - The acquisition of a 53% stake in Fresh Beer Fulu by Mixue Group for 297 million yuan marks its expansion from tea and coffee into the fresh beer market, generating significant public interest [1][5] Pricing Strategy - Fresh Beer Fulu offers fresh beer at prices ranging from 5.9 yuan to 14.9 yuan, which is below the market average for similar craft beers, typically priced between 18 to 27 yuan per pound [2][4] - The lowest priced option, Fulu Fresh Beer, is available at 5.9 yuan, while the highest priced option, San Wan Bu Guo Gang, is priced at 14.9 yuan [2] Market Positioning - The pricing strategy is aimed at attracting young consumers, with the store's offerings being described as affordable compared to competitors [4] - Mixue Group's investment is based on the competitive advantages and growth potential of Fresh Beer Fulu in the fresh beer sector, aiming to meet consumer demand for high-quality yet affordable products [5] Operational Independence - Mixue Ice City and Fresh Beer Fulu will operate as independent brands, with no plans to sell beer in Mixue Ice City locations [6]