Group 1 - The recent 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction was disappointing, with a high bid rate of 5.047%, marking the second instance in history where the winning yield exceeded 5% and the largest tail risk in six months [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio fell from an average of 2.57 to 2.46, indicating reduced demand for U.S. debt amid high fiscal uncertainty and low policy credibility [1] - Concerns over the U.S. high debt levels and the potential expansion of the deficit due to the proposed "Beautiful America Act" are seen as fundamental reasons for the weak auction results and a new wave of selling U.S. dollar assets [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, the total outstanding debt of the U.S. federal government reached $36.2 trillion, with foreign investors holding slightly over $9 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities [3] - The allocation of U.S. debt to foreign investors, including central banks, has dropped to the lowest level since 2019, at only 58.88% during the latest 30-year bond auction, continuing a trend of decline since October of the previous year [3] - Japan and the UK, both facing turmoil in their bond markets, are the top two foreign holders of U.S. debt, with Japan increasing its holdings by $4.9 billion in March 2025, while China reduced its holdings by $18.9 billion, falling to the third-largest holder [3] Group 3 - China has been gradually selling off U.S. Treasury bonds, which is viewed as a warning to the U.S., and has also been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 7.377 million ounces by the end of April 2025 [6] - The increase in gold reserves reflects China's trend towards diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, while its significant U.S. debt holdings are a result of decades of trade surpluses with the U.S. [6] - Japan's Prime Minister expressed a strong desire for the U.S. to reassess various tariff measures, particularly on automobiles, which are crucial for Japan's economy [6][9]

Group 1 - As of April 2025, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces month-on-month, marking the sixth consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank [1] - The increase in gold reserves reflects a trend towards diversification in China's foreign exchange reserve investments, aligning with global central bank actions [1] - In the first quarter of this year, global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold, consistent with the normal quarterly purchase levels over the past three years [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that central banks will buy approximately 1,000 tons of gold in 2025 due to rising structural demand for gold amid increased risk aversion [2] - Zhang Bo, a senior gold analyst, emphasizes that despite short-term adjustments in international gold prices, the long-term demand for gold will remain strong due to its monetary and financial attributes [2] - East China Futures forecasts a continued gold bull market driven by ongoing central bank purchases, U.S. debt monetization pressures, and the "de-dollarization" process, raising the 2025 gold price target to $3,500-$3,600 per ounce [2]

冉学东 此前，穆迪是最后一家维持美国主权债务AAA评级的主要机构。穆迪表示，"美国历届政府和国会未能就扭转年 度巨额财政赤字和利息成本不断上升趋势的措施达成一致"。穆迪估计，2035年联邦债务负担将升至GDP的134% 左右，而2024年为98%。 此前，另外两家评级机构也下调了美国评级。 5月16日，美国财政部公布国际资本流动报告显示，中国3月所持美债下降189亿美元，至7654亿美元。从2022年4 月起，中国大陆的美债持仓一直低于1万亿美元。3月，中国减持了276亿美元的长期美债。 由此看，中国外汇储备投资的多样化趋势仍然在继续，并且还在加速，这其中的一个主脉是减持美国国债，增加 黄金储备，截至去年4月，中国央行曾创纪录地连续18个月增持黄金，此后一度暂停，本月公布的数据显示，中国 4月末黄金储备报7377万盎司，环比增加7万盎司，这是自2024年11月以来，中国央行连续第六个月增持黄金储 备。 而国际上对于美债的需求在3月份增加，3月外国购买美债连续第二个月显著增长，创下新高。3月海外债主们的美 债总持仓合计增加了2331亿美元，达到9.05万亿美元。3月正值美债市场近期动荡的前夕。 而在4月份特朗普 ...