智通财经APP获悉，尽管 6 月份消费者价格通胀率已升至接近央行 2% 目标的两倍，但市场普遍预计英国央行将 于周四将基准利率从 4.25% 下调至 4%，并在年底前再次下调利率。 但政策制定者对于潜在价格压力缓解的程度，以及如果不进一步降息，劳动力市场放缓和经济增长乏力是否会导 致通胀在中期内低于目标水平，存在分歧。 以下图表展示了政策制定者在周四决议前可能讨论的部分议题。 全球背景与展望 2022年俄乌冲突后，英国通胀飙升幅度超过欧元区和美国，峰值达11.1%，部分源于其对天然气供暖发电的高度 依赖。2023年通胀大幅回落，2024年9月触底1.7%，但此后反弹力度强于美欧。 5月英国央行预测通胀最早2027年初才能回归目标。6月通胀率升至3.6%(2024年1月以来最高)，部分经济学家预计 将很快突破4%。相比之下，欧洲央行预计欧元区通胀将维持在略低于2%的水平。 通胀预期升温 多数英国央行官员将企业和家庭通胀预期调查视为未来物价走势、薪资要求乃至央行公信力的重要指标。 这些指标过去一年持续攀升：花旗/YouGov长期预期指数接近2022年底(当时整体通胀达两位数)以来最高，央行自 身调查也创2019年 ...

Group 1 - As of April 2025, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces month-on-month, marking the sixth consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank [1] - The increase in gold reserves reflects a trend towards diversification in China's foreign exchange reserve investments, aligning with global central bank actions [1] - In the first quarter of this year, global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold, consistent with the normal quarterly purchase levels over the past three years [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that central banks will buy approximately 1,000 tons of gold in 2025 due to rising structural demand for gold amid increased risk aversion [2] - Zhang Bo, a senior gold analyst, emphasizes that despite short-term adjustments in international gold prices, the long-term demand for gold will remain strong due to its monetary and financial attributes [2] - East China Futures forecasts a continued gold bull market driven by ongoing central bank purchases, U.S. debt monetization pressures, and the "de-dollarization" process, raising the 2025 gold price target to $3,500-$3,600 per ounce [2]