桥水基金创始人达利欧警告称，美国政府债务的过快增长，叠加日益激化的内外冲突，正在催生一种与 二战前夕"非常类似"的氛围，对现有秩序构成严峻挑战。 达利欧在周五接受媒体的采访中将美国债务的快速攀升比作"动脉中的斑块"，称其相对于收入的增长最 终会"挤压支出"。 除了债务问题，他表示，当前的财富不均和持续发酵的全球冲突也令人"深感忧虑"。 据美国国会预算办公室估计，去年公共持有债务占美国GDP的99%，预计到2034年将达到GDP的 116%，超过美国历史上任何时期。 债务危机警告升级 达利欧长期以来一直对美国螺旋式上升的债务风险发出警告。他将这一问题归咎于美国两党政客，并称 其为一颗"赤字/债务炸弹"。上月，他曾指出，飙升的债务正对"货币秩序构成威胁"。他呼吁采取增加 税收和削减开支并行的措施。 根据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）的估算，去年由公众持有的美国国债已达到国内生产总值（GDP） 的99%。该机构预测，到2034年，这一比例将攀升至116%，超过美国历史上任何时期。 在达利欧看来，债务危机并非孤立存在，而是与日益严峻的社会分裂和地缘政治风险交织在一起。他表 示，持续的全球冲突和财富不平等共同创造了一个" ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 桥水基金（Bridgewater Associates）创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）再次发出警告，称美国政府债务增长 过快，当前局势与"二战前数年的情况极为相似"。 76岁的达利欧在周五播出的彭博电视台（Bloomberg TV）采访中表示，当债务相对于收入不断攀升 时，"就像动脉里的斑块，最终会挤压（经济中的）支出空间"。 这位亿万富翁投资者长期以来一直警示美国债务螺旋式上升的风险，他在上月曾指出，这一问题正 对"货币秩序构成威胁"。达利欧将责任归咎于两党政客，并呼吁通过"增税与削减开支相结合"的方式， 应对他口中的"赤字/债务炸弹"。 根据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）的估算，去年美国公共债务规模已达到国内生产总值（GDP）的 99%；预计到2034年，这一比例将升至116%，超过美国历史上任何时期的水平。 达利欧认为，债务激增只是问题的一部分。他表示，持续发酵的全球冲突与贫富差距扩大，也在造就一 个"充满担忧的环境"。 当被问及是否即将爆发新的世界大战时，达利欧称，美国及全球其他地区正出现"某种形式的内战"，各 方存在"无法调和的分歧"。 "这些冲突将成为各 ...

当中国人民享受假期的欢愉时，特朗普却面临着越来越多的麻烦。过去几天内，特朗普政府接连迎来了 三大坏消息，这让他不得不紧急发布声明来稳定局势，而美国财长也公开暗示中国：不要不给美国面 子。 在分析这些坏消息之前，我们先来看看美国国内的局势。目前，美国的"内战"局势愈发严峻，芝加哥等 地爆发了大规模的暴力冲突。特朗普已经派遣了国民警卫队来进行镇压，但上百人的抗议队伍与移民 局、海关执法人员发生了剧烈冲突，甚至爆发了枪击事件。先是加利福尼亚州，接着是俄勒冈州和伊利 诺伊州，似乎所有由民主党主导的州都成为了特朗普政策的打击目标。 能导致美国债务危机提前爆发，进而引发经济风暴。如果美债问题失控，整个美国经济将遭遇巨大的冲 击。 而在外部，美国和欧洲的关系也在恶化。随着俄乌战争的持续，普京显然没有停止推动俄罗斯与欧洲的 矛盾。特朗普虽然口头上支持乌克兰，但依然坚持要求欧洲购买武器再向乌克兰提供援助，这无疑让美 国在经济上受益，而欧洲却为此付出了代价。长期下去，欧洲的内部矛盾会加剧，美欧之间的隔阂也会 越来越大，而这正是普京所期待的局面。 与此同时，欧洲国家对美国的信任逐渐动摇。意大利和瑞士近期分别邀请中国外长王毅访问，显 ...

《黄金重估的算盘》 今年黄金已涨45%，背后有地缘冲突、有美联储降息预期，也有各国央行加速增持，中国的稳健布局更 为全球资产配置添砖加瓦。对散户来说，黄金不同于股票，短期涨跌由大宗主导，真正要看的是季度甚 至年度趋势。 更微妙的是，瑞士计划将黄金精炼业务转到美国，把伦敦的大金条融化重铸成纽约喜欢的小金条，不仅 带动就业，还提升了美国黄金加工的自主性。全球"抢金大战"已打响，但产量有限，谁能多握在手里， 谁就能在未来博弈中占据主动。 黄金，从不是普通金属，而是大国之间的"终极筹码"。问题不在它涨不涨，而在于何时被推上博弈的舞 台。 （唐加文，笔名金观平；本文成稿后，经AI审阅校对） ——美国财政部的"黄金魔法"，能否一举还债，还顺便稳住全球金链？ 一觉醒来，黄金突破3800元，明天会不会直奔3900？这不是最关键的，关键是美国财政部可能动用一 招"点石成金"——重估黄金储备来缓解债务危机。 1973年黄金被定价42.22美元/盎司，美国财政部的8133吨储备只值110亿美元。但按现价算，早已超过1 万亿美元，整整高出90倍！如果真重估，这笔"纸上财富"足以覆盖今年巨额债务利息，再叠加关税收入 3000亿，账面几 ...

作者丨肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 在美联储降息靴子正式落地，以及点阵图显示年底还有两次降息的背景下，充裕的流动性正 日渐成为美国权益市场定价的决定性因素，市场普遍预计美股牛市可期并情绪高涨。 但当地时间9月23日，美联储主席鲍威尔对美国股市股指偏高的言论，为这种预期泼了一盆冷 水。在鲍威尔表态后，美国主要股指随即全线下挫。9月23日至25日，标普500、纳斯达克和 道琼斯工业指数连续三个交易日下跌，三大股指平均跌去了79个基点，美股牛市预期遭受重 创。 在美国经济学界，研究政治与商业周期的文献五花八门。受美国选民政治的规则博弈，强劲 的经济增长，是现任总统能否实现连任成功的关键。即使这种经济增长只是表面的繁华，但 如果时机合适，也是斩获票仓的重要助力。公开数据显示， 当前美国债务占GDP的比重已超 过123%，远超国际货币基金组织（IMF）90%的警戒线 。 这或许可以解释，为什么自年初以来，美元指数持续下行、美债收益率波动幅度加大和黄金 价格不断走高。在脆弱的财政体系下，美国政府不断通过"提高债务上限+强化短债发行解 决'近渴'"方式续命，这使得自2020年以来，海外债券市场对美国经 ...

Group 1 - Elon Musk's controversial statement about the bleak future of the United States has sparked widespread discussion, highlighting concerns over internal governance and external competition [1][10] - Musk's experience with the Trump administration's efficiency reform plan revealed deep-rooted issues within the U.S. bureaucratic system, leading to increased government spending instead of the anticipated savings [2][4] - The U.S. leadership's lack of attention to the growing debt crisis was exposed when Musk faced backlash for opposing infrastructure legislation that could exacerbate national debt [4][10] Group 2 - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, cutting $25.7 billion and bringing the total to approximately $700 billion, the lowest level since 2009, reflecting concerns over U.S. debt sustainability [5] - Chinese tech companies are diversifying their chip procurement strategies to reduce reliance on U.S. technology, driven by unpredictable U.S. export control policies [7] - China has shifted its agricultural imports, particularly soybeans, from the U.S. to Brazil due to competitive pricing and the impact of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration [9]

那个时候，美国刚选上特朗普，新政府一上来就想搞美元强势，吸引全球资金回流中国这边自然得调整策略。数据显示，2016年全年中国减持了1880亿美元 的美债，这创下了历史最高抛售纪录。 为什么这么干？主要是为了稳住自家金融市场，避免美元波动传导过来砸锅。外汇储备里美债占比太高，就跟定时炸弹似的，早点清理早点安心。 转眼到2022年，中国美债持有量已经稳稳低于1万亿美元大关。那年4月开始，就没再上过万亿线。美联储加息加得飞起，美元指数蹭蹭上涨，中国外汇管理 局一看，这资金外流的风险得管管。 说起美国国债这事儿，总让人觉得像个大麻烦堆积起来的山。中国手里握着的美债数量一直在变，尤其是从2016年开始，就开始有计划地往外甩卖。 结果呢，2023年3月有过短暂增持，添了203亿美元，但整体还是减持为主。到了2024年1月，又甩掉186亿美元，持仓滑到7977亿美元。 紧接着2月，再减227亿美元，直接降到7750亿美元。这已经是连续第二个月减仓了，接近2023年10月的低点。说白了，中国这几年减持的节奏稳扎稳打，不 是一刀切，而是分批通过二级市场卖出，避免市场大乱子。 这7750亿美元的数字听着挺具体，但放到全球背景里看 ...

Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - The U.S. may face a debt crisis in approximately three years due to excessive spending over the years [1][3] - Current government debt servicing costs are around $1 trillion annually, with total debt rollover needs at about $9 trillion, squeezing other expenditures [3] - The federal government is projected to spend about $7 trillion next year while generating only $5 trillion in revenue, necessitating the issuance of $2 trillion in new debt [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Concerns are rising regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve following political pressures, including threats to dismiss its chairman [4] - If the Federal Reserve is perceived as politically weakened, it could lead to a decline in the value of U.S. debt and the dollar [4] - The Fed faces a tough choice between allowing interest rates to rise, which could trigger a debt default crisis, or printing money to buy debt, both of which could harm the dollar [4] Group 3: Investment Trends - International investors are reducing their holdings in U.S. debt due to geopolitical concerns and are shifting towards gold [5] - The rise in gold and cryptocurrency prices is attributed to the deteriorating debt situation of the dollar and other reserve currencies, threatening their attractiveness as stores of wealth [6] - An increase in the supply of dollars or a decrease in demand could make cryptocurrencies an appealing alternative currency [7] Group 4: Government Intervention in Industries - The U.S. government's intervention in key industries, such as the recent agreement with Intel, is seen as an early sign of national capitalism [8] - The widening gap between wealth and values is contributing to the rise of populism, creating irreconcilable divisions that cannot be resolved through democratic processes [8] - The current geopolitical context suggests that the nation that wins the technology and economic war will also win more significant geopolitical and potentially military conflicts [8]

Group 1: Gold Market - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining public trust in the institution [2] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August recorded at 48.7, below the expected 49, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector for six consecutive months [2] - Concerns over the Fed's independence are benefiting gold prices, which have seen a strong upward trend, surpassing $3,500 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Bridgewater founder Dalio warns of an impending debt crisis in the U.S. due to excessive spending, with total U.S. debt reaching $37.3 trillion and interest payments exceeding $1 trillion [4] - The price of Russian Urals crude oil is $3-4 cheaper than Brent, making it more attractive for India despite a temporary reduction in imports [4] - Oil prices have been fluctuating between $62 and $65 since mid-August, with a recent short-term breakout above $65 [5] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July but have since stabilized between $4.32 and $4.50, recently breaking above the $4.50 resistance level [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is showing a weak downward trend, with strong support around the 41,800 level; a breakout above 42,400 could signal a return to an upward trend [8]

Group 1: Return of 1930s Political Model - Current political and social conditions in the U.S. are compared to the global situation of the 1930s-1940s, characterized by wealth disparity, value gap, and a collapse of trust, leading to more extreme policies [4] - Trump's intervention in the private sector, such as acquiring a 10% stake in Intel, is seen as a manifestation of "strong authoritarian leadership" driven by a desire to control financial and economic situations [4] - Wall Street investors are increasingly concerned about Trump's policies but remain silent due to fear of retaliation [4][5] Group 2: Threats to Federal Reserve Independence - Dalio warns that the independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, particularly after Trump's public dismissal of a Fed official [6][7] - A politicized central bank could undermine confidence in the Fed's ability to protect the value of the currency, making dollar-denominated debt assets less attractive [8] - International investors are shifting from U.S. Treasuries to gold, reflecting concerns about the stability of the dollar system [9] Group 3: Impending Debt Crisis - Dalio predicts that the U.S. will face a debt crisis in about three years, driven by a significant fiscal imbalance where annual spending is approximately $7 trillion against $5 trillion in revenue [11] - Investors are questioning whether U.S. Treasuries remain a good store of wealth, as debt demand may not keep pace with supply [12] - The Fed faces a difficult choice: allow interest rates to rise and risk a debt default crisis, or print money to buy debt that others are unwilling to purchase, both of which could harm the dollar [12]